Welcome to Mr. Bitter's Profile Page

It's been fun. Good luck!

@The Champ 

Yeah, Trey Pipkins shouldn't be starting. (Jamaree Syler, either.)

My thinking with the hypothetical Slater trade is LAC would receive Jonathan Allen along with WAS's 2.36 or 2.40. (Slater is just 25 and Allen is 29/expensive, so I think the compensation is fair.)

With one of WAS's 2nd RD picks to go along with their native pick at 2.37, I'm guessing the Chargers would be able to net Kingsley Suamataia for RT, or perhaps even Tyler Guyton in a moderate trade up into the late 1st RD. At the very worst, they could still come out of Day 2 with an upside RT prospect like Rosengarten, Brandon Coleman, etc. A cheap, risk/reward one-year bridge like slobberknocker Jack Conklin could easily be added, allowing Suamataia to ease in at RG for a season. There are options.

Bottom line: Harbaugh has a very specific vision and wants his kinda guys to build around Herbert. (Also, there's no way Harbaugh goes into next season without an interior DL linchpin.) My approach to the LAC draft is that NO starter from the prior regime is safe, especially if they're expensive or about to become expensive. They're tradeable assets. Hell, Keenan Allen was Herbert's one-and-only security blanket and Hortiz/Harbaugh banished him without hesitation.  

I'm no QB expert, either. I played a little and like to think I've learned a thing or two having spent an unhealthy amount of hours over the years soaking up QB-specific breakdowns from evaluators I respect, but there are mechanical nuances that I'm still iffy on. More importantly, I'm not privy to interviews/whiteboard sessions. So much of QB success is dependent on the prospect's character and whether or not the environment he's drafted into is optimal for his development. It's a crapshoot. The historic bust rate for 1st RD QBs reflects that.

With all that said, I'll add this: While I have my doubts about Drake Maye (plus arm/mobility - not elite, IMO. Not Josh Allen. Questionable accuracy/decision-maker, poor on-target % from clean pocket), Daniels is even riskier. Your critique of Daniels was being kind, as you didn't even mention his frame or his hesitance/lack of anticipation when working the middle of the field. I'm familiar with the Daniels/sack rate under pressure info, and it's alarming. It also totally checks out on tape. With Daniels, it's so often look-look, eyes down and dip. Often right into a sack. Sure, sometimes he works his way through the backfield congestion and into the open field for a highlight run, but that won't happen as often in the NFL, and when it does, he will be severely punished if he doesn't learn to protect himself. He's so skinny. Reports say he sometimes played at 190 last year. That's absolutely terrifying. He's approaching 24 and not likely to get much bigger. His Pro Day was almost sad. He's skinny, he knows he's skinny and he was obviously trying to hide it.

So yeah, high bust potential with both Maye and Daniels, which is why I'm not absolutely convinced NE won't take MHJ at 1.03 then target Penix or Nix later on.

What I find very odd is that - for all of Daniels' red flags - it's Maye that's constantly given the fine-tooth comb treatment from the media, while Daniels' even more alarming concerns go relatively unmentioned. The media just hums along as if Daniels at 1.02 is a given. I'm not sure that it is.

@The Champ 

I don't know about you, but I'm currently chin-deep in draft scenarios/puzzle solving. So much fun. Truly the most wonderful time of the year.

Bill Belichick recently stated that everything draftniks hear this time of year is agent-fed, and only what you hear 12 hours or less before the draft can be trusted. I don't think that's 100% true, but I'd say it's about 90% true. About a week out is when I go into "chaos mode". That's when I heavily filter the rumors and speculation, take a step back from all the comfortable consensus, and really try to sniff out the uncomfortable and not-yet-thought-of picks/trades that would initially shock, but then make you think, "Yeah, that actually makes sense". Because that's what happens in the real draft.

Last year around this time I started kicking around the idea of HOU drafting Stroud then trading up for Will Anderson. (I can't remember if it was you or NoHeroes, but I bounced the idea off of one of you guys in the comment section for a day or two.) I was convinced the trade was going to happen and made it a permanent part of my mock, but like a moron I deferred to Lance Zierlein's faulty Texans intel at the very last moment and removed the trade from my contest mock. I don't want to make the same mistake this year. That's why I pick your brain. (Probably too often. Sorry.) You think logically but outside the box. So many mocks just copy the media consensus. Those mocks are always wrong, so why do people keep going down that road?

Anyway, here are my two candidates to be the agents of chaos that throw everyone's 2024 top 10 into disarray:

1) The Patriots at 1.03.

I'm pretty sure Williams/Daniels go 1/2, and I believe Charlie Campbell when he says NE would prefer Daniels to Maye/McCarthy but be "okay" with QB3. But I still have my doubts whether the Pats like Maye/McCarthy better than MHJ or even Joe Alt.

For me, drafting Maye/McCarthy over MHJ or Alt is a pretty healthy reach. I get that standard rules go out the window when you desperately need a QB, but the Pats also desperately need a WR1 and LT. If I was a Pats fan, I think I would be more excited about -- let's say -- MHJ or Alt at 1.03 and a trade up into the mid/late 1st for Penix than Maye/McCarthy at 1.03 and Kingsley Suamataia at 2.34. or a trade up into the mid/late 1st for Tyler Guyton. I still think QB-QB-QB-MHJ is most likely, but I'm getting less comfortable with it by the day.

2) Joe Alt/Teams that need a LT

I just don't think the 1.07 TEN/Alt chalk is going to happen. It almost seems like when folks are creating their mocks, they're inking that pick in first then working around it. There are just too many plausible scenarios that take Alt off the board by then.

Alt to NE at 1.03. Extreme longshot, but possible.

Alt to LAC at 1.05. VERY possible. Hortiz is a Ravens guy. (I don't need to reel off examples...you know how highly BAL values O-line on draft day.) I also don't need to tell you how perfectly Alt fits the profile of a Harbaugh OT...or how the Ravens and Harbaugh have historically built their team identity through a dominant O-line/defense, etc, etc.

Alt at 1.06. This seems an obvious scenario to me, but I've never seen a single mock with a team trading right ahead of TEN for Alt. Alt (or MHJ) is arguably the cleanest blue chip in this draft; teams are going to want to move up for him, and they all know where they need to go to get him.

I think you're on to something with your CHI/Fashanu pick. Braxton Jones has surprised, but if you're Ryan Poles and in range for a perennial Pro Bowl LT, you go for it without a second thought to Jones. I say why not take it one step further? With Caleb Williams and that defense, the Bears aren't going to be in range for a LT of Alt's quality for a long time, and franchise LTs simply don't reach the open market. (While Pro Bowl WRs are traded constantly and high-quality WR draft prospects seem increasingly plentiful by the year.) Why not use that extra '25 2nd -rounder from CAR, move up to 1.06 for Alt and ensure Caleb William's edge protection is air-tight for the next decade? At 1.09, the Giants could draft Brock Bowers. Darren Waller is finished, and it seems every organizational move the Giants make lately just mimics what the Buffalo Bills did yesterday. The Giants could run their offense through Bowers just as BUF will run theirs through Dalton Kincaid. 

The Saints could also move up to 1.06 for Alt. They've made their bed with Derek Carr, and he has no chance without vast and immediate OT upgrades. The Saints currently don't have a viable LT option on their roster. There's no guarantee Fashanu makes it to them at 1.14 and Fashanu is far from a sure thing anyway. There will be O-linemen popping off like crazy in the teens, but Troy Fautanu is the only one ready to man LT and he may not meet NO's size standards.

@petermwb 

No, the biggest question is which prospect will have the cutest girlfriend/sister/mom.

Also: Rakestraw -- One of NE/ATL/DET/CAR/JAX

@The Champ 

No doubt LT is in play for the Rams. I imagine it would be Mims or Guyton. I can't see any of Alt, Fashanu, Fautanu, Fauga, Latham being on the board at 1.19.

I just wonder what they'll do about EDGE then. Maybe Marshawn Kneeland in the 2nd? Maybe he could play that Elephant OLB role opposite Byron Young. Chris Braswell? They really need more pass-rushing juice with no Aaron Donald and no Raheem Morris manufacturing pressure with smoke and mirrors.

I just noticed that IND's odds of drafting a TE first went from +425 to +250 overnight, while the Jets odds for drafting a TE actually went from +130 to +135, with O-line now at -105. Colts trade up for Bowers?

I'm seriously confused by so much of this mock.

Was that MIN/NYG trade supposed to be MIN/LAC? The Giants are the team MIN would be looking to trade AHEAD of for a QB, not trade WITH. The ensuing NYG pick at 1.11 makes no sense, either. The Giants hired O-line guru Carmen Bricillo to work with RT Evan Neal, signed RT Jermaine Eluemunor as a hedge, and signed Jon Runyan Jr. to start at RG. Why would they target RT/RG J.C Latham?

Where are you hearing that WAS prefers Maye over Daniels at 1.02? All I've heard is that Adam Peters has given zero indication as to what he'll do at 1.02. Honestly curious.

Brock Bowers would be redundant and beyond a luxury pick for the Bears. CHI acquired middle-of-the-field weapons Allen and Everett to go along with Kmet, and D.J. Moore's short-area quickness makes him dangerous on buuble screens, crossing patterns, etc. Teams prioritize diversifying their aerial attack, so why would CHI opt for Bowers over Odunze?

"Olumuyiwa Fashanu looks like a franchise left tackle". The Raiders already have one in Kolton Miller. Fashanu is a finesse blocker who's passive in the run game. He's pretty much the opposite of what Telesco/Pierce are probably looking for at RT/RG. Snot-bubble run-blockers like Fuatanu and Fauga make more sense.

The seriously doubt the Saints will pass on Fautanu, Fuaga or Mims for an EDGE. They just signed Chase Young for 1 yr/$13M and extended Cam Jordan 2 yr/$28M (guaranteed). Carl Granderson (4 yr/$52M) is entrenched as a starter. Isaiah Foskey was a '23 2nd-rounder. It would be stupid to burn any more premium resources on EDGE when they currently have no sure starters at LT, RT, and LG for 2024.

I like Kamari Lassiter and think he's being kinda undervalued right now, but I'd bet my pinkie he doesn't come off the board ahead of Quinyon Mitchell.

Marist Liufau and Johnny Dixon - Day 3/UFA prospects - in the top-40? Ahead of Johnny Newton and Chop Robinson??

Considering Kaden Prather was just out there for Maryland's spring game, going in the 2nd RD would be a neat trick.

@The Champ 

Bo Nix at 1.12 is a fireable offense. Comically low ADOT and when forced out of that comfort zone he's observably anxious. Even at the Senior Bowl.

Some concerning transferable metrics and obviously the injury history, but Lord Almighty does Penix have an arm. Just incredible. How do you not take a chance on him in the 1st RD? Not buying the "elite supporting cast" stuff, either. Even on a woefully outclassed Indiana squad, I remember Penix giving the Buckeyes all they could handle. 

It's worth noting that Adam Shefter and various MIN and HOU beats have reported that MIN didn't initiate the 1.23 trade with HOU. The Texans called MIN because they needed a 2nd-rounder to trade for Stefon Diggs. The common assumption that the Vikings are dead set on moving up has been extrapolated from the fact that they acquired that extra 2nd-rounder, but the truth is that nobody knows for sure if moving up for McCarthy/Maye is MIN's endgame. It's all speculation. The Vikings are just as likely to target Byron Murphy II at 1.11 then work the board from 1.23 for Penix.

Bowers' O/U is now at 12.5 with heavy action on the over. Shefter reported that his realistic range is the teens. A TE with questionable size/athleticism who is obviously avoiding pre-draft testing is not going in the top 10.

@Warrior 

I can't see Ballard taking Bowers with zero workout numbers. Ballard is RAS-obsessed. A TE like Theo Johnson (9.99 RAS) on Day 2 seems more Ballard's style.

I think we're all overthinking the Chargers. Joe Alt is a Hortiz/Harbaugh LT if there ever was one.

@Walt

Anyone that finds the pairing of peanut butter and jelly anything but totally logical, yummy and American -- while being okay with any mint food product under their roof -- is obviously a Communist.

Trading up for Amarius Mims would be the ideal move for the 49ers. Shockingly easy movement skills at 340 lbs. Mims was made for blocking out in space in a wide zone. Instant upgrade on the right side and potential heir to Trent Williams.

ARI moving out of range for MHJ and settling for BTJ as Kyler Murray's new WR1 and a boom-or-bust 3T feels icky. I think the Cardinals will ultimately stay put, and J.J. McCarthy will come off the board in the 9 to 12 range.

Agree on Nix and Penix. Not 1st-rounders. Nix especially.

This is seriously impressive. I can tell that you're knowledgeable of the type of prospects teams go for -- even into the mid/late rounds. Perfect example: Elijah Jones to KC in the 3rd RD. Jones is the prototypical, long Spagnuolo CB that the Chiefs usually find later in the draft. Great stuff.

The only questionable haul is IND, IMO. Ballard is RAS-obsessed. Bowers has provided no testing numbers, but I understand the need/value match. Lassiter and Estime were disappointing athletic testers. Trends change, but I can't see Ballard not coming out of Day 1 or 2 without at least one RAS monster. This is just nitpicking, though. Overall, this mock is awesome.

I see we both have the Chargers taking Harbaugh's spirit animal at 2.37.

For the Rams, I'm guessing they'll move Kobie Turner off the nose and into his natural 3T role. I could see EDGE at 1.19 and maybe a 5T like Ruke Orhorhoro at 2.52.

I see we both have the Chargers taking Harbaugh's spirit animal at 2.37.

For the Rams, I'm guessing they'll move Kobie Turner off the nose and into his natural 3T role. I could see EDGE at 1.19 and maybe a 5T like Ruke Orhorhoro at 2.52.

I think Byron Murphy II could easily be the BPA on Schneider's board if available at 1.16 and would be a great pick for SEA. He could thrive in the Madubuike role in Macdonald's scheme. The Seahawks could always plug LG with Laken Tomlinson or something. Why not upgrade from Dre'Mont Jones and bring the DL from just decent to a legit strength?

Sainristil seems like a Campbell kinda guy, but I'm not sure he'd be worth that 1st RD investment for DET with Branch established in the slot. I know DET said they might move Branch around the secondary a bit more, but Melifonwu and Joseph are entrenched in 2-safety sets, and I can't imagine DET would go too heavy on 3-safety looks considering their talent/depth at LB. I mean, they just burned a 1st on Jack Campbell and he's LB3. I imagine Branch will continue to see a majority of his PT in the slot.

In your scenario, I think DET would go with Latham or Mims. That battering ram O-line has kinda become their team identity and I bet Holmes/Campbell want to keep it that way. Decker might not be around in two years. Why not draft Latham or Mims, plug one in at G for now (returning Glasgow to his deluxe utility lineman role), then when Decker moves on, move Sewell to the blindside and Mims/Latham to RT?

I'm seriously confused by so much of this mock.

Was that MIN/NYG trade supposed to be MIN/LAC? The Giants are the team MIN would be looking to trade AHEAD of for a QB, not trade WITH. The ensuing NYG pick at 1.11 makes no sense, either. The Giants hired O-line guru Carmen Bricillo to work with RT Evan Neal, signed RT Jermaine Eluemunor as a hedge, and signed Jon Runyan Jr. to start at RG. Why would they target RT/RG J.C Latham?

Where are you hearing that WAS prefers Maye over Daniels at 1.02? All I've heard is that Adam Peters has given zero indication as to what he'll do at 1.02. Honestly curious.

Brock Bowers would be redundant and beyond a luxury pick for the Bears. CHI acquired middle-of-the-field weapons Allen and Everett to go along with Kmet, and D.J. Moore's short-area quickness makes him dangerous on buuble screens, crossing patterns, etc. Teams prioritize diversifying their aerial attack, so why would CHI opt for Bowers over Odunze?

"Olumuyiwa Fashanu looks like a franchise left tackle". The Raiders already have one in Kolton Miller. Fashanu is a finesse blocker who's passive in the run game. He's pretty much the opposite of what Telesco/Pierce are probably looking for at RT/RG. Snot-bubble run-blockers like Fuatanu and Fauga make more sense.

The seriously doubt the Saints will pass on Fautanu, Fuaga or Mims for an EDGE. They just signed Chase Young for 1 yr/$13M and extended Cam Jordan 2 yr/$28M (guaranteed). Carl Granderson (4 yr/$52M) is entrenched as a starter. Isaiah Foskey was a '23 2nd-rounder. It would be stupid to burn any more premium resources on EDGE when they currently have no sure starters at LT, RT, and LG for 2024.

I like Kamari Lassiter and think he's being kinda undervalued right now, but I'd bet my pinkie he doesn't come off the board ahead of Quinyon Mitchell.

Marist Liufau and Johnny Dixon - Day 3/UFA prospects - in the top-40? Ahead of Johnny Newton and Chop Robinson??

Considering Kaden Prather was just out there for Maryland's spring game, going in the 2nd RD would be a neat trick.

I'm seriously confused by so much of this mock.

Was that MIN/NYG trade supposed to be MIN/LAC? The Giants are the team MIN would be looking to trade AHEAD of for a QB, not trade WITH. The ensuing NYG pick at 1.11 makes no sense, either. The Giants hired O-line guru Carmen Bricillo to work with RT Evan Neal, signed RT Jermaine Eluemunor as a hedge, and signed Jon Runyan Jr. to start at RG. Why would they target RT/RG J.C Latham?

Where are you hearing that WAS prefers Maye over Daniels at 1.02? All I've heard is that Adam Peters has given zero indication as to what he'll do at 1.02. Honestly curious.

Brock Bowers would be redundant and beyond a luxury pick for the Bears. CHI acquired middle-of-the-field weapons Allen and Everett to go along with Kmet, and D.J. Moore's short-area quickness makes him dangerous on buuble screens, crossing patterns, etc. Teams prioritize diversifying their aerial attack, so why would CHI opt for Bowers over Odunze?

"Olumuyiwa Fashanu looks like a franchise left tackle". The Raiders already have one in Kolton Miller. Fashanu is a finesse blocker who's passive in the run game. He's pretty much the opposite of what Telesco/Pierce are probably looking for at RT/RG. Snot-bubble run-blockers like Fuatanu and Fauga make more sense.

The seriously doubt the Saints will pass on Fautanu, Fuaga or Mims for an EDGE. They just signed Chase Young for 1 yr/$13M and extended Cam Jordan 2 yr/$28M (guaranteed). Carl Granderson (4 yr/$52M) is entrenched as a starter. Isaiah Foskey was a '23 2nd-rounder. It would be stupid to burn any more premium resources on EDGE when they currently have no sure starters at LT, RT, and LG for 2024.

I like Kamari Lassiter and think he's being kinda undervalued right now, but I'd bet my pinkie he doesn't come off the board ahead of Quinyon Mitchell.

Marist Liufau and Johnny Dixon - Day 3/UFA prospects - in the top-40? Ahead of Johnny Newton and Chop Robinson??

Considering Kaden Prather was just out there for Maryland's spring game, going in the 2nd RD would be a neat trick.

I'm seriously confused by so much of this mock.

Was that MIN/NYG trade supposed to be MIN/LAC? The Giants are the team MIN would be looking to trade AHEAD of for a QB, not trade WITH. The ensuing NYG pick at 1.11 makes no sense, either. The Giants hired O-line guru Carmen Bricillo to work with RT Evan Neal, signed RT Jermaine Eluemunor as a hedge, and signed Jon Runyan Jr. to start at RG. Why would they target RT/RG J.C Latham?

Where are you hearing that WAS prefers Maye over Daniels at 1.02? All I've heard is that Adam Peters has given zero indication as to what he'll do at 1.02. Honestly curious.

Brock Bowers would be redundant and beyond a luxury pick for the Bears. CHI acquired middle-of-the-field weapons Allen and Everett to go along with Kmet, and D.J. Moore's short-area quickness makes him dangerous on buuble screens, crossing patterns, etc. Teams prioritize diversifying their aerial attack, so why would CHI opt for Bowers over Odunze?

"Olumuyiwa Fashanu looks like a franchise left tackle". The Raiders already have one in Kolton Miller. Fashanu is a finesse blocker who's passive in the run game. He's pretty much the opposite of what Telesco/Pierce are probably looking for at RT/RG. Snot-bubble run-blockers like Fuatanu and Fauga make more sense.

The seriously doubt the Saints will pass on Fautanu, Fuaga or Mims for an EDGE. They just signed Chase Young for 1 yr/$13M and extended Cam Jordan 2 yr/$28M (guaranteed). Carl Granderson (4 yr/$52M) is entrenched as a starter. Isaiah Foskey was a '23 2nd-rounder. It would be stupid to burn any more premium resources on EDGE when they currently have no sure starters at LT, RT, and LG for 2024.

I like Kamari Lassiter and think he's being kinda undervalued right now, but I'd bet my pinkie he doesn't come off the board ahead of Quinyon Mitchell.

Marist Liufau and Johnny Dixon - Day 3/UFA prospects - in the top-40? Ahead of Johnny Newton and Chop Robinson??

Considering Kaden Prather was just out there for Maryland's spring game, going in the 2nd RD would be a neat trick.

I'm seriously confused by so much of this mock.

Was that MIN/NYG trade supposed to be MIN/LAC? The Giants are the team MIN would be looking to trade AHEAD of for a QB, not trade WITH. The ensuing NYG pick at 1.11 makes no sense, either. The Giants hired O-line guru Carmen Bricillo to work with RT Evan Neal, signed RT Jermaine Eluemunor as a hedge, and signed Jon Runyan Jr. to start at RG. Why would they target RT/RG J.C Latham?

Where are you hearing that WAS prefers Maye over Daniels at 1.02? All I've heard is that Adam Peters has given zero indication as to what he'll do at 1.02. Honestly curious.

Brock Bowers would be redundant and beyond a luxury pick for the Bears. CHI acquired middle-of-the-field weapons Allen and Everett to go along with Kmet, and D.J. Moore's short-area quickness makes him dangerous on buuble screens, crossing patterns, etc. Teams prioritize diversifying their aerial attack, so why would CHI opt for Bowers over Odunze?

"Olumuyiwa Fashanu looks like a franchise left tackle". The Raiders already have one in Kolton Miller. Fashanu is a finesse blocker who's passive in the run game. He's pretty much the opposite of what Telesco/Pierce are probably looking for at RT/RG. Snot-bubble run-blockers like Fuatanu and Fauga make more sense.

The seriously doubt the Saints will pass on Fautanu, Fuaga or Mims for an EDGE. They just signed Chase Young for 1 yr/$13M and extended Cam Jordan 2 yr/$28M (guaranteed). Carl Granderson (4 yr/$52M) is entrenched as a starter. Isaiah Foskey was a '23 2nd-rounder. It would be stupid to burn any more premium resources on EDGE when they currently have no sure starters at LT, RT, and LG for 2024.

I like Kamari Lassiter and think he's being kinda undervalued right now, but I'd bet my pinkie he doesn't come off the board ahead of Quinyon Mitchell.

Marist Liufau and Johnny Dixon - Day 3/UFA prospects - in the top-40? Ahead of Johnny Newton and Chop Robinson??

Considering Kaden Prather was just out there for Maryland's spring game, going in the 2nd RD would be a neat trick.

I'm seriously confused by so much of this mock.

Was that MIN/NYG trade supposed to be MIN/LAC? The Giants are the team MIN would be looking to trade AHEAD of for a QB, not trade WITH. The ensuing NYG pick at 1.11 makes no sense, either. The Giants hired O-line guru Carmen Bricillo to work with RT Evan Neal, signed RT Jermaine Eluemunor as a hedge, and signed Jon Runyan Jr. to start at RG. Why would they target RT/RG J.C Latham?

Where are you hearing that WAS prefers Maye over Daniels at 1.02? All I've heard is that Adam Peters has given zero indication as to what he'll do at 1.02. Honestly curious.

Brock Bowers would be redundant and beyond a luxury pick for the Bears. CHI acquired middle-of-the-field weapons Allen and Everett to go along with Kmet, and D.J. Moore's short-area quickness makes him dangerous on buuble screens, crossing patterns, etc. Teams prioritize diversifying their aerial attack, so why would CHI opt for Bowers over Odunze?

"Olumuyiwa Fashanu looks like a franchise left tackle". The Raiders already have one in Kolton Miller. Fashanu is a finesse blocker who's passive in the run game. He's pretty much the opposite of what Telesco/Pierce are probably looking for at RT/RG. Snot-bubble run-blockers like Fuatanu and Fauga make more sense.

The seriously doubt the Saints will pass on Fautanu, Fuaga or Mims for an EDGE. They just signed Chase Young for 1 yr/$13M and extended Cam Jordan 2 yr/$28M (guaranteed). Carl Granderson (4 yr/$52M) is entrenched as a starter. Isaiah Foskey was a '23 2nd-rounder. It would be stupid to burn any more premium resources on EDGE when they currently have no sure starters at LT, RT, and LG for 2024.

I like Kamari Lassiter and think he's being kinda undervalued right now, but I'd bet my pinkie he doesn't come off the board ahead of Quinyon Mitchell.

Marist Liufau and Johnny Dixon - Day 3/UFA prospects - in the top-40? Ahead of Johnny Newton and Chop Robinson??

Considering Kaden Prather was just out there for Maryland's spring game, going in the 2nd RD would be a neat trick.

I'm seriously confused by so much of this mock.

Was that MIN/NYG trade supposed to be MIN/LAC? The Giants are the team MIN would be looking to trade AHEAD of for a QB, not trade WITH. The ensuing NYG pick at 1.11 makes no sense, either. The Giants hired O-line guru Carmen Bricillo to work with RT Evan Neal, signed RT Jermaine Eluemunor as a hedge, and signed Jon Runyan Jr. to start at RG. Why would they target RT/RG J.C Latham?

Where are you hearing that WAS prefers Maye over Daniels at 1.02? All I've heard is that Adam Peters has given zero indication as to what he'll do at 1.02. Honestly curious.

Brock Bowers would be redundant and beyond a luxury pick for the Bears. CHI acquired middle-of-the-field weapons Allen and Everett to go along with Kmet, and D.J. Moore's short-area quickness makes him dangerous on buuble screens, crossing patterns, etc. Teams prioritize diversifying their aerial attack, so why would CHI opt for Bowers over Odunze?

"Olumuyiwa Fashanu looks like a franchise left tackle". The Raiders already have one in Kolton Miller. Fashanu is a finesse blocker who's passive in the run game. He's pretty much the opposite of what Telesco/Pierce are probably looking for at RT/RG. Snot-bubble run-blockers like Fuatanu and Fauga make more sense.

The seriously doubt the Saints will pass on Fautanu, Fuaga or Mims for an EDGE. They just signed Chase Young for 1 yr/$13M and extended Cam Jordan 2 yr/$28M (guaranteed). Carl Granderson (4 yr/$52M) is entrenched as a starter. Isaiah Foskey was a '23 2nd-rounder. It would be stupid to burn any more premium resources on EDGE when they currently have no sure starters at LT, RT, and LG for 2024.

I like Kamari Lassiter and think he's being kinda undervalued right now, but I'd bet my pinkie he doesn't come off the board ahead of Quinyon Mitchell.

Marist Liufau and Johnny Dixon - Day 3/UFA prospects - in the top-40? Ahead of Johnny Newton and Chop Robinson??

Considering Kaden Prather was just out there for Maryland's spring game, going in the 2nd RD would be a neat trick.

I'm seriously confused by so much of this mock.

Was that MIN/NYG trade supposed to be MIN/LAC? The Giants are the team MIN would be looking to trade AHEAD of for a QB, not trade WITH. The ensuing NYG pick at 1.11 makes no sense, either. The Giants hired O-line guru Carmen Bricillo to work with RT Evan Neal, signed RT Jermaine Eluemunor as a hedge, and signed Jon Runyan Jr. to start at RG. Why would they target RT/RG J.C Latham?

Where are you hearing that WAS prefers Maye over Daniels at 1.02? All I've heard is that Adam Peters has given zero indication as to what he'll do at 1.02. Honestly curious.

Brock Bowers would be redundant and beyond a luxury pick for the Bears. CHI acquired middle-of-the-field weapons Allen and Everett to go along with Kmet, and D.J. Moore's short-area quickness makes him dangerous on buuble screens, crossing patterns, etc. Teams prioritize diversifying their aerial attack, so why would CHI opt for Bowers over Odunze?

"Olumuyiwa Fashanu looks like a franchise left tackle". The Raiders already have one in Kolton Miller. Fashanu is a finesse blocker who's passive in the run game. He's pretty much the opposite of what Telesco/Pierce are probably looking for at RT/RG. Snot-bubble run-blockers like Fuatanu and Fauga make more sense.

The seriously doubt the Saints will pass on Fautanu, Fuaga or Mims for an EDGE. They just signed Chase Young for 1 yr/$13M and extended Cam Jordan 2 yr/$28M (guaranteed). Carl Granderson (4 yr/$52M) is entrenched as a starter. Isaiah Foskey was a '23 2nd-rounder. It would be stupid to burn any more premium resources on EDGE when they currently have no sure starters at LT, RT, and LG for 2024.

I like Kamari Lassiter and think he's being kinda undervalued right now, but I'd bet my pinkie he doesn't come off the board ahead of Quinyon Mitchell.

Marist Liufau and Johnny Dixon - Day 3/UFA prospects - in the top-40? Ahead of Johnny Newton and Chop Robinson??

Considering Kaden Prather was just out there for Maryland's spring game, going in the 2nd RD would be a neat trick.

I can't imagine Byron Murphy II dropping to 1.27. Dominant interior pass-rushers are becoming more and more valuable with the way the game is evolving.

Also, this is not Mel Kiper's worst nightmare; it's the third-worst at best, behind decaffeinated coffee and a strong gust of wind.

@The Champ 

Melton would make sense. I know he went late-1st in Chad Reuter's latest NFL.com mock, and Chris Simms ranked him CB4 ahead of Arnold/Kool-Aid/DeJean (for whatever that's worth).

@42yardline 

Denver is a possibility. The Raiders, too. The Broncos have the worst QB depth chart in the league right now. I'm just not sure how they pull it off with so many holes on the roster and no 2nd rounder. Payton isn't opposed to sacrificing future picks, that's for sure.

Still, MIN has to be the heavy favorite to trade up for a top-4 QB. The MIN depth chart is talented enough for a rookie to start immediately and have some success. (Something similar to Ben Roethlisberger in 2004 maybe.) A raw rookie like Maye or McCarthy would be doomed in DEN. Sticking and picking Nix or trading down for Nix or Penix seems more logical. Who knows, though. Desperate times/desperate measures, and Payton/Paton have been making questionable decisions in DEN. 

@42yardline 

Six QBs could easily go in the 1st RD. After the top six guys, there's a huge fall off. Spencer Rattler is the only prospect after the top six with a chance of going before the 5th RD, IMO.

I don't think QB-needy teams are ever too concerned about what might be available in future drafts. It drives me nuts when I see mocks that have a QB-needy team passing on QB to "wait for Sanders or Ewers". First of all, if Sanders and Ewers are that good, there's no guarantee teams at the top of the '25 draft won't just want them for themselves. Secondly, for all we know the whole Colorado/Prime Time thing could implode next season and Sanders transfers again, and Ewers could continue to struggle with inconsistency and lose his job to Arch Manning. There's just so much unknown involved. It wasn't that long ago that mock drafts were suggesting QB-needy teams should "wait until next year for Spencer Rattler". NFL teams don't operate like that.

QBs at 1-2-3-4 could happen. I buy what Monti Ossenfort is selling when he says he's open for business at 1.04, but at the same time I'm still convinced ARI wants MHJ.

More than anything, ARI is about affording Kyler Murray every opportunity for success. I think an All Pro WR is what they want, not more late-1st/Day 2 picks (of which they already have plenty). Even with all that cap space, the Cardinals have done basically nothing to address their WR depth chart. Teams almost always sign a reasonable hedge or two at need positions to allow for more draft day flexibility. The Cardinals have done nothing. This suggests two things:

1) ARI knows QBs are going 1-2-3.

2) They want MHJ at 1.04 and only a ridiculous king's ransom will get them to trade any lower than 1.05.

The Champ's proposed three-way deal could be exactly what we see happen.

@42yardline

And I hope you don't think I'm disparaging Buffalo in any way. The Bills are a top-notch organization with the best fan base. I was also born in Rochester and am Rust Belt through and through.

@42yardline 

I think the Bills may already be a year late with Diggs.

If you had to guess, how rich do you think trade compensation for Diggs would be?

@The Champ 

Worthy definitely could go 1st round. I wouldn't be shocked if he was WR4 and drafted top-20. I'm just arguing his fit for BUF in particular, which may need more of a sure thing at WR - especially if Diggs is traded. I think I'm just more concerned about the weight than you guys are. If you run around on an NFL field at less than 170 lbs you're going to get hurt. If you look at the history of slim reaper WR prospects...Paul Richardson, Terrence Edwards, Snoop Minnis, Dede Westbrook, Tavon Austin, etc, etc...the track record is miserable. DeVonta Smith and Tank Dell are the outliers. I like DeVonta, but he's more deluxe WR2 than WR1 and wasn't worth that 1.10 investment, IMO. Dell is already having problems with injuries.

There are also some concerning underlying analytics with Worthy:

Right off the bat, he has a career catch rate <60%. Not good.

His career QBR when targeted - a solid predictive metric for NFL success - would be the lowest of WRs drafted in the last five seasons.

Worthy - in theory - is that lid-lifting deep threat at the NFL level, but he was really never even that at Texas. Only 23% of Worthy's 1014 REC yards last season were deep yards, while nearly 40% of those yards came on screens.

If I'm being purely predictive, I'm guessing late 1st/early 2nd for Worthy. He just scares me and I personally believe he's becoming an overrated prospect. He's my anti-Chop Robinson lol.

I like that Higgins/JAX deal. The Jags have got to get a big WR that can make an immediate impact. Could be some win-now urgency for JAX. There's going to some serious roster churn and perhaps a step back next season in order to pay Trevor Lawrence.

Now the question is whether there's an ex-LSU Tiger slot WR available for the Bengals to sign.

@42yardline 

I agree that BUF needs a WR - especially one that would allow Allen to stretch his arm out. (Also, Stefon Diggs probably isn't long for Buffalo.) If Brian Thomas is available the Bills better be all over that. I worry about Worthy translating, though.

The Worthy/Tyreek comps seem gracious. There's a huge difference between 5-11/165 and 5-8/185. Tyreek is short, but has always had a dense, muscular build and been very strong/physical off the line and in contested catch situations. Worthy is a flat out string bean. For as fast as he is, he's not very quick off the line and will probably always have trouble getting off vs. physical press coverage. I get that 4.21 is still 4.21, but I think Worthy would be a pretty high-risk 1st-rounder.

Breaking the chalk at #4. Ballsy. I like it.

I'm with you on CIN addressing RT before the draft. They're reportedly in talks with Mekhi Becton. (Good riddance.) I'm thinking the Bengals come out of Day One with Thomas or (my darkhorse for CIN) Graham Barton.

Bowers to the Jets feels more likely by the day. They're currently kicking the tires on Mike Williams and Jadeveon Clowney. Should the Jets sign them, TE becomes arguably the only hole in their lineup. (Safety is suspect, but they're obviously not taking a safety at #10.) The free agent TE well is dry and Bowers is the only TE in the draft ready to hit the ground running in the NFL.

Love that DEN trade back for Penix. Very possible.

I still think WR is a strong possibility for BUF. They really need to clear some cap room and Diggs is making noise about wanting out again. I'm wondering if they may have had enough of Diggs. He's 30, in decline and a bit of a pain in the ass.

Ditto on what The Champ said about LAR/JPJ.

I like the PIT/Barton match, but not the trade down. I don't agree that he's an overdraft in the 20-30 range and there's no guarantee he makes it past MIA or DAL.

I doubt the Packers would need to move up for DeJean at this point.

I kinda need to know why I keep hearing that OT is a pressing need for the Bears. Braxton Jones is young, inexpensive and the physical LT prototype. The CHI brain trust says nothing but positive things about him. He finished 2nd in pass blocking win rate among starting OTs last season at 96%, behind only Trent Williams. Jones also finished tied at #5 with Tyron Smith in run blocking win rate among all OTs. That's ahead of Penei Sewell. It just feels like if Jones had 1st RD instead of 5th RD on his player bio there would never be a single mention of replacing him.

Just when you think you'll never have to think about Steve DeBerg again...

Also, great mock. Except Latu at 14. He's trending toward late 1st if not the 2nd, and the Saints usually go for "upside" pterodactyls at EDGE instead of production/average athlete types like Latu.

@jtrapp1962 

It's hard to say with the Giants and McCarthy. I tend to agree that they won't draft him because Schoen/Daboll probably don't have a long enough leash for a reset, but at the same time Daniel Jones really sucks. I could see the Giants falling in love with McCarthy's leadership/flashes, but odds are good that his NFL ceiling is basically Daniel Jones. I find it interesting that a bunch of "Giants love McCarthy" reports came out immediately after the MIN trade was announced. Do the Giants REALLY love McCarthy or is it just, "Yeah yeah yeah - come on Vikings, trade ahead of us for McCarthy so Malik Nabers falls into our lap"?

Still think MIN would trade up for McCarthy if they're sold on him. Maybe even at #4. DEN's QB situation is just as dire and they may want to move up too.

Breaking the chalk at #4. Ballsy. I like it.

I'm with you on CIN addressing RT before the draft. They're reportedly in talks with Mekhi Becton. (Good riddance.) I'm thinking the Bengals come out of Day One with Thomas or (my darkhorse for CIN) Graham Barton.

Bowers to the Jets feels more likely by the day. They're currently kicking the tires on Mike Williams and Jadeveon Clowney. Should the Jets sign them, TE becomes arguably the only hole in their lineup. (Safety is suspect, but they're obviously not taking a safety at #10.) The free agent TE well is dry and Bowers is the only TE in the draft ready to hit the ground running in the NFL.

Love that DEN trade back for Penix. Very possible.

I still think WR is a strong possibility for BUF. They really need to clear some cap room and Diggs is making noise about wanting out again. I'm wondering if they may have had enough of Diggs. He's 30, in decline and a bit of a pain in the ass.

Great mock. I can't argue with a single pick in the 1st round. The only eye-widener for me was Q. Mitchell falling to 1.23. Do you anticipate him being on the board longer than most expect or was that just kinda the way your mock played out?

My only nitpick is ATL/Coleman. Not that it's a bad value pick or a ridiculous idea or something, I just think ATL could be focused on getting a shiftier, Malachi Corley-type WR on Day 2 to diversify the aerial attack.

Great mock. I can't argue with a single pick in the 1st round. The only eye-widener for me was Q. Mitchell falling to 1.23. Do you anticipate him being on the board longer than most expect or was that just kinda the way your mock played out?

My only nitpick is ATL/Coleman. Not that it's a bad value pick or a ridiculous idea or something, I just think ATL could be focused on getting a shiftier, Malachi Corley-type WR on Day 2 to diversify the aerial attack.

Great mock. I can't argue with a single pick in the 1st round. The only eye-widener for me was Q. Mitchell falling to 1.23. Do you anticipate him being on the board longer than most expect or was that just kinda the way your mock played out?

My only nitpick is ATL/Coleman. Not that it's a bad value pick or a ridiculous idea or something, I just think ATL could be focused on getting a shiftier, Malachi Corley-type WR on Day 2 to diversify the aerial attack.

Great mock. I can't argue with a single pick in the 1st round. The only eye-widener for me was Q. Mitchell falling to 1.23. Do you anticipate him being on the board longer than most expect or was that just kinda the way your mock played out?

My only nitpick is ATL/Coleman. Not that it's a bad value pick or a ridiculous idea or something, I just think ATL could be focused on getting a shiftier, Malachi Corley-type WR on Day 2 to diversify the aerial attack.

Great mock. I can't argue with a single pick in the 1st round. The only eye-widener for me was Q. Mitchell falling to 1.23. Do you anticipate him being on the board longer than most expect or was that just kinda the way your mock played out?

My only nitpick is ATL/Coleman. Not that it's a bad value pick or a ridiculous idea or something, I just think ATL could be focused on getting a shiftier, Malachi Corley-type WR on Day 2 to diversify the aerial attack.

One more nitpick:

Like you said, some reputable sources - including Charlie - have suggested that MHJ/Nabers is closer to a WR1a/WR1b situation than WR1/WR2, with Nabers possibly even ahead of MHJ on a few boards. This begs the question: If things got weird at #4 and ARI opted for Nabers, do you think the Chargers would take MHJ over Bowers at #5? I do, and I think most would agree. Assuming MHJ and Nabers have similar grades, why is the idea of of the Chargers taking Nabers at 1.5 not as "obvious"? Mike Williams is as good as gone and there's no guarantee that Keenan Allen or Quinton Johnston will be rostered by '25.

While I don't disagree that Harbaugh values the TE in his scheme, I think the primary schematic goal is to achieve run/pass balance, with an emphasis on overall physicality. I don't think that necessarily makes WR a lesser priority.

During his relatively short run in SF, Harbaugh - even with 2009 1.10 pick Michael Crabtree at WR1 and Frank Gore the established offensive fulcrum - annually made aggressive moves in an attempt to level up the passing attack, including everything from burning a 2012 1st-rounder on A.J Jenkins, to contracts for vets Mario Manningham and Anquan Boldin, and even luring Randy Moss out of retirement for a cup of coffee in 2012. In contrast, the only TE transaction made during Harbaugh's tenure was 2013 Day Two pick Vance McDonald, a 6-4/267, physical successor to Vernon Davis who was more serviceable than star.

Even at Michigan, Harbaugh was a balanced recruiter and annually signed 4 and 5-star WR preps and transfers. Roman Wilson, A.J. Henning, Tyler Morris, Tarik Black, Nico Collins, Cornellus Johnson, etc., were all blue-chip recruits. 2017 signee Donovan Peoples-Jones was generally ranked as WR1/WR2 overall in his class.

I don't disagree that Harbaugh would love Bowers, but I think he could love a Day Two prospect like Ben Stinnott just as much if not more, as he would come at a more reasonable value range, would bring more physical in-line blocking and is closer to the physical TE profile Harbaugh has traditionally sought (6-4 to 6-6/255ish).

I had trouble deciding between Wiggins and Latham for PIT. I think Wiggins makes a ton of sense. The Steelers currently have nothing on their CB depth chart beyond Porter. I'm kinda just waiting to see what the Steelers do in FA for more clarity. If they sign an economical vet like Trent Brown or something to play RT, then it's Wiggins.

The Arizona Cardinals, man lol. So hard to predict what they'll do. They always have a weird board and beyond Kyler Murray, Tre McBride, Paris Johnson and Budda Baker, every single position could use an upgrade. And I'm not completely sure they wouldn't trade Murray for the right package.

I'm beginning to think that Bowers might pop off closer to where you have him than where I do (#6). I'll be watching his Combine performance closely.

One more nitpick:

Like you said, some reputable sources - including Charlie - have suggested that MHJ/Nabers is closer to a WR1a/WR1b situation than WR1/WR2, with Nabers possibly even ahead of MHJ on a few boards. This begs the question: If things got weird at #4 and ARI opted for Nabers, do you think the Chargers would take MHJ over Bowers at #5? I do, and I think most would agree. Assuming MHJ and Nabers have similar grades, why is the idea of of the Chargers taking Nabers at 1.5 not as "obvious"? Mike Williams is as good as gone and there's no guarantee that Keenan Allen or Quinton Johnston will be rostered by '25.

While I don't disagree that Harbaugh values the TE in his scheme, I think the primary schematic goal is to achieve run/pass balance, with an emphasis on overall physicality. I don't think that necessarily makes WR a lesser priority.

During his relatively short run in SF, Harbaugh - even with 2009 1.10 pick Michael Crabtree at WR1 and Frank Gore the established offensive fulcrum - annually made aggressive moves in an attempt to level up the passing attack, including everything from burning a 2012 1st-rounder on A.J Jenkins, to contracts for vets Mario Manningham and Anquan Boldin, and even luring Randy Moss out of retirement for a cup of coffee in 2012. In contrast, the only TE transaction made during Harbaugh's tenure was 2013 Day Two pick Vance McDonald, a 6-4/267, physical successor to Vernon Davis who was more serviceable than star.

Even at Michigan, Harbaugh was a balanced recruiter and annually signed 4 and 5-star WR preps and transfers. Roman Wilson, A.J. Henning, Tyler Morris, Tarik Black, Nico Collins, Cornellus Johnson, etc., were all blue-chip recruits. 2017 signee Donovan Peoples-Jones was generally ranked as WR1/WR2 overall in his class.

I don't disagree that Harbaugh would love Bowers, but I think he could love a Day Two prospect like Ben Stinnott just as much if not more, as he would come at a more reasonable value range, would bring more physical in-line blocking and is closer to the physical TE profile Harbaugh has traditionally sought (6-4 to 6-6/255ish).

One more nitpick:

Like you said, some reputable sources - including Charlie - have suggested that MHJ/Nabers is closer to a WR1a/WR1b situation than WR1/WR2, with Nabers possibly even ahead of MHJ on a few boards. This begs the question: If things got weird at #4 and ARI opted for Nabers, do you think the Chargers would take MHJ over Bowers at #5? I do, and I think most would agree. Assuming MHJ and Nabers have similar grades, why is the idea of of the Chargers taking Nabers at 1.5 not as "obvious"? Mike Williams is as good as gone and there's no guarantee that Keenan Allen or Quinton Johnston will be rostered by '25.

While I don't disagree that Harbaugh values the TE in his scheme, I think the primary schematic goal is to achieve run/pass balance, with an emphasis on overall physicality. I don't think that necessarily makes WR a lesser priority.

During his relatively short run in SF, Harbaugh - even with 2009 1.10 pick Michael Crabtree at WR1 and Frank Gore the established offensive fulcrum - annually made aggressive moves in an attempt to level up the passing attack, including everything from burning a 2012 1st-rounder on A.J Jenkins, to contracts for vets Mario Manningham and Anquan Boldin, and even luring Randy Moss out of retirement for a cup of coffee in 2012. In contrast, the only TE transaction made during Harbaugh's tenure was 2013 Day Two pick Vance McDonald, a 6-4/267, physical successor to Vernon Davis who was more serviceable than star.

Even at Michigan, Harbaugh was a balanced recruiter and annually signed 4 and 5-star WR preps and transfers. Roman Wilson, A.J. Henning, Tyler Morris, Tarik Black, Nico Collins, Cornellus Johnson, etc., were all blue-chip recruits. 2017 signee Donovan Peoples-Jones was generally ranked as WR1/WR2 overall in his class.

I don't disagree that Harbaugh would love Bowers, but I think he could love a Day Two prospect like Ben Stinnott just as much if not more, as he would come at a more reasonable value range, would bring more physical in-line blocking and is closer to the physical TE profile Harbaugh has traditionally sought (6-4 to 6-6/255ish).

@WillWyn37 

Agree. Battle/Hill are a promising safety duo. The Bengals have bigger fish to fry. The O-line needs a RT immediately and a C/G prospect to groom behind Karras. A knifing 3T is badly needed (as you said). There's also an underrated need for another LB to potentially replace Pratt by '25. A difference-making TE, WR3, a power complement to Chase Brown...just so many spots to prioritize ahead of safety.

I think Walt should delegate his mocks to his readers, with selected fans of each team making that team's selection. Would be interesting.

I had trouble deciding between Wiggins and Latham for PIT. I think Wiggins makes a ton of sense. The Steelers currently have nothing on their CB depth chart beyond Porter. I'm kinda just waiting to see what the Steelers do in FA for more clarity. If they sign an economical vet like Trent Brown or something to play RT, then it's Wiggins.

The Arizona Cardinals, man lol. So hard to predict what they'll do. They always have a weird board and beyond Kyler Murray, Tre McBride, Paris Johnson and Budda Baker, every single position could use an upgrade. And I'm not completely sure they wouldn't trade Murray for the right package.

I'm beginning to think that Bowers might pop off closer to where you have him than where I do (#6). I'll be watching his Combine performance closely.

I had trouble deciding between Wiggins and Latham for PIT. I think Wiggins makes a ton of sense. The Steelers currently have nothing on their CB depth chart beyond Porter. I'm kinda just waiting to see what the Steelers do in FA for more clarity. If they sign an economical vet like Trent Brown or something to play RT, then it's Wiggins.

The Arizona Cardinals, man lol. So hard to predict what they'll do. They always have a weird board and beyond Kyler Murray, Tre McBride, Paris Johnson and Budda Baker, every single position could use an upgrade. And I'm not completely sure they wouldn't trade Murray for the right package.

I'm beginning to think that Bowers might pop off closer to where you have him than where I do (#6). I'll be watching his Combine performance closely.

@The Champ

I appreciate it, and don't mind the criticism at all. I follow your mocks and respect your opinion. I'm open to different perspectives and have been wrong a thousand times. Besides - If we all agreed on everything it would be boring as hell. Disagreement is what makes this fun.

It's obvious to most of us that DEN won't be making any serious noise in the AFC any time real soon, buy I truly question whether Payton thinks that way. The man has an ego on him. He annually overestimates his rosters and stubbornly sticks with his guys and his rigid philosophies instead of embracing young upgrades and fresh ideas. His post-Drew Brees Saints teams were basically just spinning their wheels, all while being financially irresponsible. It's looking like more of the same in DEN. Honestly, I just haven't been impressed with his coaching performance and decision-making post-Brees.

When doing a predictive mock, I try to think like the decision-makers for each team. That's why I have the Rams taking older prospects Latu and Nix, just as they did last year with Byron Young, Nacua, Turner, etc. - they know their SB window is closing fast and want older, immediate contributors. Personally, I wouldn't take Latu, but I'm pretty sure the Rams would. That's why I have Payton skipping on the rookie QBs for Winston - I honestly believe he thinks he can compete with Winston and his guys, because that's all Payton has ever showed me.

You might be right on the WR O/U, and believe me - not giving the Chiefs Troy Franklin killed me. But my thought process was that with the OT, DL and CB crops being so top-heavy, teams will be willing to put WR on hold until Day Two, where there will be a dozen high-quality WR options of varying styles to choose from. Take my JAX/Arnold pick. I instinctively wanted to slot Brian Thomas Jr. there and call it a day. Then I thought, "Wait - the Jags don't have a nickel corner, Darious Williams is almost 31, and Tyson Campbell is a FA after the season. Terrion Arnold is just sitting here at excellent value. I like Brian Thomas Jr., but he's not light years better than comparable Day Two guys like AD Mitchell, Xavier Legette, Keon Coleman, Brenden Rice, etc. JAX won't find a CB even close to Arnold on Day Two".

As for JPJ and Penix Jr., we just disagree on their value. I actually wasn't overly impressed with JPJ's Senior Bowl reps. They were highlighting instances where he was being pushed into the QBs lap then raving about his last second grapple/recovery. It's like, okay - that was feisty and all, but he was still getting pushed back. I just didn't see the dominator everyone was talking about.

I like Penix. Great arm. His age and medicals aren't even big concerns for me. He's just plain inaccurate under pressure. It's hard for me to get past that.

You're more than right about the QB supply-and-demand. I wouldn't be completely shocked if Penix went in the 1st round. For now I have him as a late 2nd/early 3rd prospect, but I'm open to moving him up depending on what we hear coming out of the Combine.

"Laiatu Latu...a strong frame"

This is false. Functional strength for the next level is the biggest concern with Latu outside the injury history. He has a very narrow frame and no sand in his pants.

"Ladd McConkey...gritty"

LOL

I can't see Patton/Payton taking any non-Williams/Maye/Daniels QB at 12.

I get that the Broncos badly need a viable-yet-cheap option at QB considering their salary cap situation and the mammoth dead money hit once Russ is released, but a reach for a Day 2 prospect like Nix isn't the answer. It's an awful value pick, which is something DEN can't afford given their limited draft currency over the next two years. They need their picks to hit.

DEN desperately needs more athleticism and impact players all along their front 7, a solid CB2 to complement Surtain, a quality TE that can stay healthy, a C to replace Cushenberry, and another starting WR (Jeudy or Sutton will almost definitely be traded). They are miles from a QB away.

DEN will most likely be forced to sit on their hands during free agency, meaning their depth chart could be even weaker than it currently is by draft day. Nix needs a perfect environment for any hope of NFL success; plopping him in the DEN lineup in Payton's complex system would be guaranteed failure and likely unemployment for Patton/Payton. (DEN has the highest front office/HC turnover rate since their 2015 SB win. Payton probably isn't as comfy as we assume.)

I'm confident DEN will opt for a bargain bin veteran QB like Jameis Winston, Gardner Minshew, Sam Darnold, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett or Tyrod Taylor, then hope for a Baker Mayfield-type career renaissance. One of those QBs and a Jared Verse, Dallas Turner, Terrion Arnold, or even Brock Bowers at 1.12 would make DEN much more competitive in '24 than simply reaching for Nix, IMO.

Curious as to why you suggest MHJ is a potential diva. I live in Columbus and have heard zero about diva behavior from MHJ. Mostly the opposite. There was similar pre-draft chatter about Stroud last year that had Columbus residents scratching their heads, as he gave no indication of being anything but a rock solid dude during his OSU career.

Assuming the apple doesn't fall far from the tree, MHJ will be a low-maintenance star. Marvin Harrison Sr - at one time the highest paid WR in the NFL - was renowned for his work ethic, reliability and being soft-spoken. Junior seems much the same.

Agreed that Terrion Arnold isn't currently CB1 in this draft, but there are signs that he could be before long. I don't think slotting him at #8 is a reach. Dane Brugler said the consensus with scouts he's spoken to is that Arnold has the best skill set in the crop, while Daniel Jeremiah says Arnold could go as high as #5. Obviously not gospel, but DJ and DB are among the more tuned-in draft experts.

Really good mock. I doubt Latu pops off that high, but it's a ballsy call and who knows?

Like that you mention the speed concerns with Odunze. I think you're out ahead of a narrative that will get louder as the pre-draft process unfolds. I love Odunze as a prospect, but I'm seeing a good amount of mocks with him in the top six. Very doubtful to me, especially considering the quality depth in this WR crop.

That DAL/Graham Barton pick makes so much sense it hurts.

I get that the SEA/Mims pick is more about getting Mims in his proper value range and driving home the point that SEA needs to start making premium investments in the trenches. However, I have a hard time imagining Abe Lucas at guard. Such a high-cut, upright player. He's about the purest of RTs that I can think of. Still, his availability going forward seems to be a quiet concern in SEA, so Mims could be the pick in your scenario. Ultimately - like you - I anticipate Guyton and Mims will rise as the predraft process unfolds. I'm guessing neither will make it to SEA at 16.

The Seahawks are in an awkward spot given their needs: Smack dab in the middle of the 1st round - out of potential franchise QB range, and perhaps a little too high for a non-Latu defender. I suppose Fautanu would be a solid (if uninspiring) pick as a plug n play guard, but it just feels like SEA needs to think bigger. Perhaps a trade down to recoup a 2nd rounder, with the targets being Barton in the late 1st and a 2nd round swing on Penix/Nix?  

I like that you went trade crazy. It's too early in the process to hope for anything close to accuracy, so I like it when mocks explore potential trades/scenarios. Makes it interesting.

Your LAC/NYJ/Alt trade is very possible. I totally understand the mocks that have the Chargers taking Bowers or Nabers at #5, but I have to think Harbaugh is itching to reconstruct that lousy defense. A move down to #10 would be a more reasonable value slot for potential targets like Turner, Arnold, etc.

I like the potential of Guyton and Mims more than Alt, but the Aaron Rodgers signing has created a hostage situation. Every personnel move must now be made with a one-year window mindset. (As a Jets fan, I don't think Rodgers is worth the trouble, but it is what it is.) The Jets will almost certainly value Alt's polish over the upside of Guyton/Mims.

Nit picks: I'll be shocked if Penix goes that high, and seriously doubt Kool-Aid pops off before Arnold. Cool name, but Arnold is the better prospect.

PIT 14 BUF 13

DAL 38 GB 24

LAR 30 DET 27

PHI 20 TB 17 

Happy hunting, fellas.

That DAL/Graham Barton pick makes so much sense it hurts.

I get that the SEA/Mims pick is more about getting Mims in his proper value range and driving home the point that SEA needs to start making premium investments in the trenches. However, I have a hard time imagining Abe Lucas at guard. Such a high-cut, upright player. He's about the purest of RTs that I can think of. Still, his availability going forward seems to be a quiet concern in SEA, so Mims could be the pick in your scenario. Ultimately - like you - I anticipate Guyton and Mims will rise as the predraft process unfolds. I'm guessing neither will make it to SEA at 16.

The Seahawks are in an awkward spot given their needs: Smack dab in the middle of the 1st round - out of potential franchise QB range, and perhaps a little too high for a non-Latu defender. I suppose Fautanu would be a solid (if uninspiring) pick as a plug n play guard, but it just feels like SEA needs to think bigger. Perhaps a trade down to recoup a 2nd rounder, with the targets being Barton in the late 1st and a 2nd round swing on Penix/Nix?  

@ttwarrior4 

Just the annual overhyping of QB prospects. A few misinformed "experts" shoehorn an obvious Day 2 prospect into the top 5 of their January mocks and others blindly follow suit. Will Levis, Malik Willis, Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder...I mean, I remember when bums like Matt Barkley, Geno Smith and Ryan Nassib were regularly found in the top 10 of early 2013 mock drafts. It's just silly.

McCarthy is a gamer with decent tools, but it's obvious to the average observer that he was hidden at UM. Unfortunately, it will probably take a Charlie Campbell Hot Press-type bucket of cold water to snap folks back to reality.  

@Karensman

Not sure why JAX wouldn't be all in on making the playoffs. They seemed pretty focused on their task last week. They tightened up around their backup QB for a clean, workmanlike W. That's what good teams do.

The Jags are a young team who have been dealing with a steady stream of key injuries this season; there were bound to be some inconsistencies. Still, the Pederson Jags usually beat the teams they're supposed to beat (especially in division), and key guys like Robinson, Campbell, Cisco, Kirk, etc, are being folded into the mix after absences. Assuming Lawrence is in one piece, I see no reason why JAX can't avenge that Week 14 road loss to CLE in the playoffs. (Sorry, but Flacco is going to turn into a pumpkin here real soon.)

Ryan Tannehill: 33.3 QBR, 64.7 CMP%, 2 TD/6 INT, sacked 11 times in his last two games. Damaged goods.

Careful on that Shaheed prop. A.J. Terrell only shadows pure boundary WRs like Mike Evans and Alec Pierce. He basically never covers the slot.

Olave and Shaheed are interchangeable; both can function in the slot or as the deep threat. (Both have similar ADOT and line up in the slot 40% of the time.) It all depends on the matchup.

The Saints will no doubt utilize Olave in the slot to avoid Terrell, just as they did in Week 12 @ ATL, when he piled up 9 targets/7 catches/114 yds on only 22 routes run before exiting with a concussion. (Shaheed also exited early Week 12, yet Terrell stayed glued to the boundary to cover the likes of Lynn Bowden instead of shadowing Olave.) This could finally be the Olave eruption week with very few leftovers for other pass-catchers.

@Walt

Quick nitpick: "The Titans are stout vs. the run" hasn't really been applicable since Jeffery Simmons went on IR.

Since the loss of Simmons, TEN has given up 148 rushing yards to HOU (Singletary 26/121/4.7) and 158 yards to MIA (Mostert 21/96/4.6, Achane 7/47/6.7). They surrendered only 58 yards to SEA Week 16, but SEA - who couldn't stop Derrick Henry - had just 20 carries as they played from behind until the 4th quarter.

Since losing Simmons, TEN has inexplicably released NT Teair Tart and lost reliable run-defenders Jack Gibbens and Amani Hooker to IR. Practice Squad lifers like Quinton Bohanna, Jaleel Johnson, Otis Reese IV and K'Von Wallace are now starting for the Titans. If anything, the TEN run defense should be targeted at this point.

The motivation angle is iffy on the WAS/NYJ game. Not to say you're wrong about the Jets having nothing to play for - but what does Washington have to play for? The depth chart is gutted and Rivera knows he's as good as gone. WAS has been fading for weeks.

The motivation angle is inconsequential compared to the glaring mismatch between the WAS O-line and the NYJ front seven. It just seems like a stretch to think yourself into anything beyond a zero unit pass on this game.

CAR will beat ATL SU today.

@tom.r.butcher 

With the news that Belichick is a dead man walking in NE, the Pats should just go full-scale rebuild. Get your QB at the top of this draft then trade every asset that isn't nailed down for more draft currency, with an eye toward a free agency splash and true contention in 2026.

On offense, re-sign impending FA Onwenu, then start entirely from scratch around Strange/Andrews/Onwenu. Pray to God that Justin Fields plays out of his mind the next four weeks and that Ryan Poles is drinking the Maye>Williams Kool-Aid. If so, then do whatever it takes to trade up for Williams. If not (likely), then don't get cute and just take Daniels or Ewers at #2.

I know the NE defense is competitive, but I wouldn't count on that continuing once Belichick is gone. Keep Barmore, Gonzalez and White and burn the rest. You just know players like Guy. Bentley, Peppers, etc., won't be as effective in a non-Belichick scheme.