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@WFDevTeam 

I'm thinking the same. A lot is being said about Anderson/Hunter vs. that banged-up LAC O-line. More should be said about Mack/Tuipulotu vs. that banged-up HOU O-line. 

HOU's showing vs. the Raiders scares me. The Texans can be had vs. the run. If Ashton Jeanty can run all over HOU, so should Omarion Hampton. LAC 20 HOU 17 

@WFDevTeam 

Rivers has like ten kids. He obviously prefers life on hard mode.

@iEatCrayons 

CAR +7.5

Just such a lousy spot for SEA coming off that fluky W vs. LAR and the Niners on deck Week 18. Last time SEA played LAR, they only beat TEN by 6 the following week. CAR may be overrated and inconsistent, but they're better than the Titans. (Wins vs. LAR, GB, TB.) I feel like 5.5 - 6 should be the number here. 

CAR is 9-4 ATS as home dogs under Canales, and 4-2 SU their last six at home. CAR is no great shakes defensively, but they match up well w/SEA, as CAR is 1st in the NFL vs. play action and 1st in play action yards allowed. SEA's passing game is predicated on play action (#1 in the NFL). Jaycee Horn - while inconsistent - is capable of keeping JS-N relatively under control.

Bryce Young has been inconsistent, but has stepped up in difficult matchups this season, especially late-game. He has 10 TDs to 2 INTs over his last 5 contests, and has an 8:1 TD-to-INT rate, 102.5 passer rating and 5-0 record vs. teams with top-10 pressure ratings this season. 

SEA 24 CAR 20

@iEatCrayons 

I'm with you. Rams are the right side, even with Adams OUT. (For what it's worth, Adams only had 1 catch for one yard last time these teams met.)

SEA cannot establish the run. Cross is OUT. Darnold falls apart under pressure, while Stafford is gunning for MVP. The only hope for SEA is a completely dominant defensive performance. 

Fav plays:

BAL/CIN  U51.5

CHI -7.5  Proper Sanders implosion incoming. Thuney/Dalman/Jackson will do work against a CLE interior D struggling without Collins, and Graham hurting. Another big game from the CHI RBs.

JAX -12  "We quit" game from the battered Jets, while Jax is getting into a lather. Blowout. 

BUF -1  Josh Allen - looking to make his MVP case - in a snow game. Revenge for BUF as Bosa and Rosseau take turns on Vederian Lowe.

DET +6  Just a hunch that this is a FG game. DET's battered secondary is concerning, but we've seen their backups step up before. Goff indoors and Gibbs on a rug allow Lions to keep up.

SEA -13.5  Betting that Indy's Philip Rivers Hail Mary is a disaster from the jump. Four TOs from Rivers sounds about right.

@DoctorJ 

Counterpoint: 1 to 3 inches of snow and 21 mph winds in the forecast. Josh Allen is reliably beastly in snow games.

Early Games:

PIT +3  CHI's back seven is in shambles. Not a good matchup for PIT's TE-heavy attack. PIT tightens up around Rudolph and wins SU. 

BAL -13.5  Fading the Jets for a while. Lamar's DNP on Wednesday was apparently a maintenance day, so I'm not too worried about him.  

DET -13.5  Kinda worried about no LaPorta and a look ahead to GB on Turkey Day for the Lions, but I can't side with Winston w/no weapons.

NE -7.5  Getting blowout vibes in this one. The Pats want to bury the Bills in the AFC East.

TEN +12.5  Coming off the Rams and with Darnold revenge game vs. MIN on the horizon, I don't like this spot for SEA. TEN D controls the SEA run game while Ward kills clock w/short stuff to TEs and RBs vs. SEA's backup LBs. Titans lose but keep it close.

MIN +6.5  Divisional rivalry and must-win for MIN. I hate siding w/McCarthy, but the banged-up GB defense can be had.

IND +3.5  The Chiefs have to show me more. I'm (probably foolishly) assuming Danny Dimes ironed out those TO issues during Indy's BYE. Feels like a lotta Jonathan Taylor and a 3 point game.

Late games coming. Leaning DAL to beat PHI SU. 

Happy hunting fellas.

NE -13  Walt handicapped this one pretty thoroughly, and I'm going big on the Pats. Now that the Jets have dinged their draft positioning with that predictable, fluky win vs. CLE, they'll get their asses handed to them by NE. Without Garrett Wilson, this isn't a fair fight. But will NE be focused? In Vrabel I trust.

Expect another huge game from TreVeyon Henderson vs. NY's saloon-door D-line. Henderson is perfectly situated for a dominant three-game run vs. NYJ, CIN and NYG.

@42yardline 

Giants fans are spoiled rotten compared to us Jets fans. Our only comfort is watching SB III on Youtube.

I'm interested to see how the Giants play for Kafka. I've always liked him as an assistant. Maybe NY has stumbled upon a decent HC.

@Baird 

Beginning with the victory over MIA, I think BAL could win 8 straight. Lamar chews up and spits out the blitz, so I'm not worried about BAL scoring vs. MIN. I'm on BAL, but I'm concerned that the BAL D may not be able to pressure McCarthy off his spot. (His pressure/no pressure splits are miserable.) Hopefully underrated acquisition Dre'Mont Jones can hit the ground running in a BAL defense that he fits well. Jones was running hot bringing edge pressure for TEN before the trade.

You've got marbles with the TB pick. Good spot for TB, but all the offensive injuries have to catch up at some point. The running game has really suffered without Bucky Irving. I'm staying away from NE/TB.

@Baird 

This is shaping up to be the weekend of the backup RB.

ATL -7 NON-BET  I don't trust Tua right now, but I don't trust an injured Penix, either. There might be a QB controversy slowly brewing in ATL and I'm tempted to get ahead of it, but MIA seems to have tapped out and has to be faded until they show some fight.

ATL is a better team at home and Bijan could make an MVP statement vs. MIA's saloon door run D, but ATL's overall inconsistency and Achane on a rug has me fearful of a back and forth game and a backdoor cover. 

CHI +6.5 NON-BET  BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.

A lot of things have to click in order for BAL to get out of their 1-5 hole, even against the 7th-easiest remaining schedule, and while they're getting reinforcements off their BYE, I'm not sure they'll just be able to flip the switch vs. a hot CHI team that may feel disrespected by this point spread. The BAL defense sucks right now without Madubuike, and he's not coming back.

BUF -7 NON-BET  I've gone back n forth here. BUF's struggling D gets a few D-line depth pieces back for this one, but now DaQuan Jones and Taylor Rapp are OUT. CAR should be able to establish the run vs. BUF, but what if Josh Allen comes out hot and the Bills jump out to an early lead? I simply am not betting Dalton over Allen in this situation.

CIN -6.5 LOVE  I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.

For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.

SF +2.5 LIKE  This is a must-win for HOU...but so was their loss to SEA. Screw the net points...why should I assume that HOU will break out of their offensive funk when they have zero running game, their O-line is still sh*t, and Nico Collins is likely OUT? Why should I assume a finally-healthy CMC won't dominate? 

CLE +7 NON-BET  Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)

ATL -7 NON-BET  I don't trust Tua right now, but I don't trust an injured Penix, either. There might be a QB controversy slowly brewing in ATL and I'm tempted to get ahead of it, but MIA seems to have tapped out and has to be faded until they show some fight.

ATL is a better team at home and Bijan could make an MVP statement vs. MIA's saloon door run D, but ATL's overall inconsistency and Achane on a rug has me fearful of a back and forth game and a backdoor cover. 

CHI +6.5 NON-BET  BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.

A lot of things have to click in order for BAL to get out of their 1-5 hole, even against the 7th-easiest remaining schedule, and while they're getting reinforcements off their BYE, I'm not sure they'll just be able to flip the switch vs. a hot CHI team that may feel disrespected by this point spread. The BAL defense sucks right now without Madubuike, and he's not coming back.

BUF -7 NON-BET  I've gone back n forth here. BUF's struggling D gets a few D-line depth pieces back for this one, but now DaQuan Jones and Taylor Rapp are OUT. CAR should be able to establish the run vs. BUF, but what if Josh Allen comes out hot and the Bills jump out to an early lead? I simply am not betting Dalton over Allen in this situation.

CIN -6.5 LOVE  I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.

For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.

SF +2.5 LIKE  This is a must-win for HOU...but so was their loss to SEA. Screw the net points...why should I assume that HOU will break out of their offensive funk when they have zero running game, their O-line is still sh*t, and Nico Collins is likely OUT? Why should I assume a finally-healthy CMC won't dominate? 

CLE +7 NON-BET  Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)

ATL -7 NON-BET  I don't trust Tua right now, but I don't trust an injured Penix, either. There might be a QB controversy slowly brewing in ATL and I'm tempted to get ahead of it, but MIA seems to have tapped out and has to be faded until they show some fight.

ATL is a better team at home and Bijan could make an MVP statement vs. MIA's saloon door run D, but ATL's overall inconsistency and Achane on a rug has me fearful of a back and forth game and a backdoor cover. 

CHI +6.5 NON-BET  BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.

A lot of things have to click in order for BAL to get out of their 1-5 hole, even against the 7th-easiest remaining schedule, and while they're getting reinforcements off their BYE, I'm not sure they'll just be able to flip the switch vs. a hot CHI team that may feel disrespected by this point spread. The BAL defense sucks right now without Madubuike, and he's not coming back.

BUF -7 NON-BET  I've gone back n forth here. BUF's struggling D gets a few D-line depth pieces back for this one, but now DaQuan Jones and Taylor Rapp are OUT. CAR should be able to establish the run vs. BUF, but what if Josh Allen comes out hot and the Bills jump out to an early lead? I simply am not betting Dalton over Allen in this situation.

CIN -6.5 LOVE  I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.

For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.

SF +2.5 LIKE  This is a must-win for HOU...but so was their loss to SEA. Screw the net points...why should I assume that HOU will break out of their offensive funk when they have zero running game, their O-line is still sh*t, and Nico Collins is likely OUT? Why should I assume a finally-healthy CMC won't dominate? 

CLE +7 NON-BET  Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)

ATL -7 NON-BET  I don't trust Tua right now, but I don't trust an injured Penix, either. There might be a QB controversy slowly brewing in ATL and I'm tempted to get ahead of it, but MIA seems to have tapped out and has to be faded until they show some fight.

ATL is a better team at home and Bijan could make an MVP statement vs. MIA's saloon door run D, but ATL's overall inconsistency and Achane on a rug has me fearful of a back and forth game and a backdoor cover. 

CHI +6.5 NON-BET  BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.

A lot of things have to click in order for BAL to get out of their 1-5 hole, even against the 7th-easiest remaining schedule, and while they're getting reinforcements off their BYE, I'm not sure they'll just be able to flip the switch vs. a hot CHI team that may feel disrespected by this point spread. The BAL defense sucks right now without Madubuike, and he's not coming back.

BUF -7 NON-BET  I've gone back n forth here. BUF's struggling D gets a few D-line depth pieces back for this one, but now DaQuan Jones and Taylor Rapp are OUT. CAR should be able to establish the run vs. BUF, but what if Josh Allen comes out hot and the Bills jump out to an early lead? I simply am not betting Dalton over Allen in this situation.

CIN -6.5 LOVE  I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.

For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.

SF +2.5 LIKE  This is a must-win for HOU...but so was their loss to SEA. Screw the net points...why should I assume that HOU will break out of their offensive funk when they have zero running game, their O-line is still sh*t, and Nico Collins is likely OUT? Why should I assume a finally-healthy CMC won't dominate? 

CLE +7 NON-BET  Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)

It's not hard to believe that CAR is vastly improved vs. the run. Derrick Brown.

The Jets are an auto-fade for me until Tyrod Taylor takes over under center. Rookie TE Mason Taylor is currently Fields' top receiving option. The Jets simply can't score points.

I agree that CAR isn't suddenly a playoff contender, but they should win this game. You're letting your resistance to the idea that CAR is improved cloud your judgement.

CAR returns Hubbard, Coker , J. Sanders, Moton, Corbett and Wharton this week. They are currently in a lather running the ball and stopping the run. That travels. CAR 27 NYJ 13

It's not hard to believe that CAR is vastly improved vs. the run. Derrick Brown.

The Jets are an auto-fade for me until Tyrod Taylor takes over under center. Rookie TE Mason Taylor is currently Fields' top receiving option. The Jets simply can't score points.

I agree that CAR isn't suddenly a playoff contender, but they should win this game. You're letting your resistance to the idea that CAR is improved cloud your judgement.

CAR returns Hubbard, Coker , J. Sanders, Moton, Corbett and Wharton this week. They are currently in a lather running the ball and stopping the run. That travels. CAR 27 NYJ 13

@SadisticNobility 

Assuming the Ravens get Lamar Jackson and a handful of other key players back from injury following their bye, they're set up for a run that might put them on PIT's tail. BAL might come out of their post-bye CHI, MIA, MIN, CLE, NYJ, CIN, PIT, CIN schedule run 7-7 and in contention. 

@Walt

You're going to grow old waiting for Matt Milano to play at 100%. Might be washed.

"...the Rams may not be totally focused against the 49ers, given how many backups San Francisco will be utilizing"

McVay-coached team...divisional rivalry for first place...c'mon, Walt.

@Baird 

MIN will be down 3/5 of their O-line and their backup center. Now I really don't trust Wentz. Wentz behind a practice squad O-line vs. that CLE defensive front feels like an INT party waiting to happen.

One thing I will give Gabriel - he's always been very safe with the ball. As you said, safe dink-and-dunk action and a dominant defensive showing could carry the day for CLE, especially in a game where TOs will be crucial.

@Baird 

Out of curiosity, why are you out on HOU/BAL? I've been sniffing around BAL as the media is currently driving nails into their coffin. I have a hunch that - even with the horrifying injury list - Harbaugh will rally the remaining troops, lean on Derrick Henry (HOU susceptible vs. the run) and find a way to cover/maybe win. My biggest concern with BAL is the season-ending injury to Madubuike, but if the rest of the team gets healthy and DeCosta swings a trade for a high-quality DT (Jeffery Simmons?), I still like BAL in the AFC North.

@Baird 

Doug Williams vs. Jim Zorn!

@42yardline 

The old Costanza method.

@Jasonwbantle 

Wentz and Mason are probably upgrades from McCarthy and Aaron Jones. Darrisaw may play. Meanwhile, CIN will likely be without Shemar Stewart, Cam Taylor-Britt and D.J. Turner.

@Baird 

Love those clean angles in your LV/WAS look ahead. I worry about WAS, too. Daniels is the real deal, but WAS is due some serious luck regression this year. (Which we may already be seeing with the injuries.) Also: While I get the idea of surrounding Daniels with a veteran cast during his rookie contract window, WAS's roster feels too old.  

NE +2.5  There's a better chance that Mike McDaniel will be DET's OC in '26 than MIA's HC, and everyone knows it. MIA is a mentally and physically soft team that may have already tapped out. For me, MIA is an AUTO FADE until I see reason for them not to be.

I have my question's about Drake Maye and worry about NE's secondary, but as long as the Pats employ TreVeyon Henderson as RB1 - I'm guessing they will - they should win SU.

NYG +6  If Russell Wilson's Week One performance rolls over to Week 2 - which it easily could behind that Andrew Thomasless O-line and "force-feed Malik Nabers" scheme - then the Dart Era might arrive before halftime. I try not to put too much stock into preseason, but preseason Dart looked like an immediate upgrade from Wilson, and could easily spark the Giants to (at least) a backdoor cover. I'm assuming a lot here, but no risk it, no biscuit.

Note: I don't trust Guyton and Steele vs. Carter and Burns.

@Karensman 

The Gridiron Uniform Database constantly updates uniform matchups as uni announcements are released. Has all the historic uniforms, too. Fun little site.

Why, oh why, won't the Lions wear those sweet silver pants??

GL Karensman

LARGE

SEA +1.5  McCaffrey is washed. Trent Williams may be too, and the rest of the O-line is mediocre save for RG Puni. Defensively, the days of Armstead, Buckner, Hargrove, Greenlaw and Hufanga are over; the depth chart is now Bosa, Warner and a bunch of question marks. The SF STs are putrid. Until SF is valued correctly, they're an auto-fade for me. SEA wins SU.

CIN -5.5  Narrative changer. CIN will jump out 14-0 before CLE knows what's happening. CLE might hang around a bit as Flacco attacks CIN's weak LBs and Ss with a healthy dose of Njoku, but CIN pulls away in the 2nd half behind Chase Brown and some Flacco TOs.

MODERATE

DET +2  Until GB proves they can beat the big boys, I gotta fade them vs. the big boys. Lost amid the Parsons talk is the fact that DET returns Hutchinson (along with about half their defensive starters). Toss into the mix a battered GB WR corps and QUESTIONABLE Nate Hobbs, and I like the fully healthy Lions to quiet the "new coordinators" talk with a divisional road win. </p>

SMALL</strong>

TB -1  As long as Vea plays, the Bucs have the advantage in the trenches. I anticipate the ATL O-line without Dalman and McGrady will be more problematic than anticipated. (Penix's pressure/no pressure splits were alarming last year.) TB should be able to establish Bucky Irving vs. a weak ATL DT group. WR2 Darnell Mooney (3 TDs vs. TB last season) trending OUT doesn't help ATL's cause. 

DEN -8.5  I'm not sure if we've seen TEN fully bottom out yet. (I'm not sold on Cam Ward.) When you're talking about the addition of LT Dan Moore like it's a good thing, you're f*cking low, man.

BAL -1  Running game and defense travels, especially early-season. I don't trust the BUF defense to contain MVP snub-motivated Lamar Jackson, who will toss 3 TDs and rush for one more.

NON-BET

NYG +6

IND -1

CAR +3.5

NE -2.5

NYJ +3

LAR -3

CHI +1

Happy hunting, gentlemen.rong><;/strong>;

@Baird

And now Christian McCaffrey is QUESTIONABLE with a new calf injury. Predictable. The thing about athletes like McCaffrey (incredibly tightly wound as opposed to good, natural musculature) is that by the time they're 28, every muscle wants to detach. McCaffrey will never be the same and is approaching the cliff. As is Trent Williams. 

@Baird 

RT Abraham Lucas isn't bad...he's just always injured. I'm assuming he's healthy for this game since SEA just gave him a 3-year/$46M contract extension on Thursday. If a healthy Lucas with some chip help from A.J. Barner (good blocking TE) keeps Bosa under control, who else on that SF D-line is ready to step up?

Notes:

SEA will win SU.

Agree on MIA. House of cards ready to collapse.

Wouldn't touch CLE even at +11.5. I think Walt is misreading this one. The Bengals have heard it all about their traditional slow starts and their piss-poor defense. It's why the starters were out there in preseason. I'm confident Burrow and company come storming out of the gates and Al Golden's new scheme rewrites the crappy CIN defense narrative for at least one week. Bengals in a blowout.

@j_oliver_23 

Good stuff. Also: Like everyone, I worry about the DET interior O-line, but it's not as if GB has a game-wrecking DT. With Kenny Clark traded, the GB interior DL may be as big of a question as the DET interior OL.

You've gotta get Nyck Harbor in the 1st round. Freak athlete that will melt brains at the Combine.

Agree on the Lions. Last year was their year.

To add to their list of issues: Still no viable EDGE threat opposite Hutchinson. Marcus Davenport is an injury waiting to happen.

DAL/PHI  I'm worried about the backdoor cover, too. Not because the DAL offense is a juggernaut, but because the PHI defense is green after losing veteran leaders Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, Darius Slay, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Brandon Graham and Oren Burks.

Youngsters like Moro Ojomo, Jalyx Hunt, Kelee Ringo, Sydney Brown are talented, but are going from rotational pieces to starters. Jihaad Campbell, Azeez Ojulari, Josh Uche and Andrew Mukuba are nice additions, but may not be fully acclimated to Fangio's scheme. This defense will look different and there could be a vulnerable transition period.

Interested to see if the loss of Mekhi Becton dings the PHI rushing attack. Becton was a bulldozer for the Eagles last season. Tyler Steen has never graded well as a starter. Landon Dickerson is also banged up to start the season.

Underrated factor: PHI's greatest defensive strength (interior pressure/Jalen Carter) could be subdued a bit by DAL's strong interior O-line.

It also feels like DAL is usually at their best when the least is expected of them.

PHI 31 DAL 24

@Osmodiar 

Agree on Allar. Not a 1st round prospect.

@Osmodiar 

Not sure about that. NO is a directionless organization and the pressure of following in Archie's footsteps isn't necessarily a positive. 

@Mr. Football  

The Cowboys are a bit of a mess. Pickens isn't going to behave himself. He's a WR2 who thinks he's an alpha. He's a meltdown waiting to happen.

Another weak head coaching hire.

The Prescott contract is an albatross.

DAL has no running game and no run defense.

The secondary is a problem. 

Tough schedule. The Cowboys could easily be 2-7 going into their bye.

DAL might finish last place in the NFC East.

Aaaaand of course my Jets drafted the OT with the highest bust potential, IMO.

Any idea on what position the Rams are targeting at 2.46? I'm thinking CB.

Passing up Travis Hunter to draft Mason Graham top-5 is why the Browns are the Browns.

Nice call on CIN/Shemar Stewart.

@Walt

Vegas odds now have Jeanty over Graham as the favorite to go at #5. You may want to mention Jeanty as a possibility at that spot.

I'm currently banging out my contest mock and have prioritized pinpointing where the QB prospects are going to go and kinda working around that. Here's what I think I think so far:

Cam Ward/TEN - Mistake, but inevitable.

Shedeur Sanders/PIT - It's simple. Aaron Rodgers wants to start for a contender. PIT is the only realistic option left for him. Rodgers is literally waiting to see if PIT drafts Sanders or Dart, and if they do, he'll retire.

I don't care how bloated the OVER number on Sanders' 9.5 O/U gets or how much smoke there is that he'll tumble out of the 1st RD - if Penix and Nix went as high as they did in a much stronger draft, then Sanders is going in the 1st RD, with 1.21 his absolute floor.

Jaxson Dart/CLE - Whether it's a trade up from 2.33 or at 2.33, I think Dart will be CLE's target. Dart is this draft's QB analytics darling and no team emphasizes analytics like CLE. Dart is also going to be a bust; drafting QB busts is what the Browns do.

I'm getting the feeling that 1.06 could be a sneaky spot for Sanders. Geno Smith is approaching 35 and basically on a one-year deal. O'Connell is on the trading block. Brady has a history with the Sanders family. Sure, if Jeanty pops off at 1.05, the Raiders could pivot to a RT like Membou, Jalon Walker, maybe even Mykel Williams or Tet McMillan, but I think they would consider Sanders just as strongly. The Raiders have quietly been bringing in all the QBs for Top 30s and WOs, too.

The Rams might consider Dart, but it's impossible to say because they do their scouting in-season and meet with prospects virtually. I'm going to assume they ride with Stafford/Garoppolo one more year.

I think SEA will come out of Day Two with Will Howard or Tyler Shough.

If PIT doesn't get Sanders or Dart, then Rodgers signs with PIT and maybe the Steelers grab a Will Howard or Kyle McCord in the 3rd/4th RD.

Chris Ballard will ride with AR/Danny Dimes because he's a drunken idiot.

The Saints use 3.71 or 3.93 on Quinn Ewers.

@pinballer3 

I did this exercise to break out of the media regurgitation/groupthink rut that you mentioned. Every year around this time it's the same: All the legitimate information that can be gathered has been gathered, so all that's left for the media is rumor, speculation and flat-out disinformation that gets repeated so often that everyone just kinda accepts it, leading to the top 6 to 8 picks in every mock draft looking exactly the same. And every year, the actual draft looks nothing like the consensus and everybody gets like six to nine 1st RD picks right. I don't want to do that this year. "1. Ward 2. Hunter 3. Carter 4. Campbell 5. Graham 6. Jeanty 7. Membou 8. Walker" just isn't how it's going to go down. So I decided to tune out the media stuff until the eve of the draft and focus on going back to the tape, team needs and where the value pockets are for those needs. Because that's exactly what NFL decision-makers are doing right now.

@The Champ

I mean, if we are going to assume that the new JAX regime is going to just sweep out unproven recent 2nd-rounders drafted by the former regime, then why is nobody talking about JAX trading down and drafting Tyler Warren to replace Brenton Strange? It's not like Trevor Lawrence doesn't need all the help he can get.

@The Champ 

The 1.05 JAX/Graham chalk has always been kinda iffy to me. He's good, but not that good. When I watch the tape of a DT prospect projected to go top five, I expect to see a Suh/Quinnen Williams-type that is consistently pressing the iOL into the QBs lap or on the QB's ass. Graham is not that guy. He's a scrappy, assignment-sure technician that fits the run and creates piles at the LOS, but when you watch the tape, it's Kenneth Grant right next to him that is actually splitting double times and puncturing the backfield more times than not.

@The Champ 

Yeah, very little can be gleaned from the Combine, Pro Days, where every movement made and every word said has been mapped out by handlers and rehearsed ad nauseam. Teams have to get these QBs in their rooms, on the white board, throw concepts and verbiage at them, really get under the hood. It would be insane to invest in a QB without that baseline of information.

Agree with you on the 49ers. (My exercise really did set me straight in a few spots.) SF went from that Bosa/Buckner/Armstead/Jones wrecking crew to Bosa and practice squad guys. That's not gonna stand. Pick 1.11 simply has to be earmarked for D-line. Underrated factor: SF DL coach Kris Kocurek. Stewart, Williams and Nolen are upside prospects in need of refinement. Kocurek is arguably the best in the business.

Mason Graham is now 5.5 O/U -110 to the OVER. I'm convinced that CHI is moving up to 1.05 for Jeanty. When you look at how aggressively Poles knocked out the need at EDGE and revamped the O-line during free agency...the two high 2nd rounders...it all points toward a bold Day One move up the board.

@42yardline 

I just don't believe Ward is that much better than Sanders. Neither are transcendent talents, so their NFL success could easily hinge on what kind of situation they're drafted into. 

TEN is drafting Ward to start immediately...in an offense where Calvin Ridley is the only viable target and Dan freakin' Moore is considered an upgrade for the O-line. Beyond the excellent Sweat/Simmons DT duo, TEN's defense is swiss cheese. If Ward was a lift-all-boats-level QB prospect like Manning/Luck, that would be fine...but he's not. He's not even close. The Titans are setting Ward up to fail.

Now let's say Sanders slides and gets drafted by the Rams. In that system, with that supporting cast and the luxury of learning under McVay and behind Stafford for a stretch, I'd be willing to bet mucho cabbage that Sanders would have a more successful career than Ward.

As for why I think the Jets should go QB but TEN shouldn't - that's easy. It's because Travis Hunter isn't an alternative for the Jets. Hunter is going to be a truly generational superstar.

Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.

Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.

Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.

Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.

Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.

@42yardline 

For the Jets, my approach to the draft would be completely different than how Mougey and Glenn will approach it because they appear to be committed to Justin Fields at QB. Fields greatly limits what you can do on offense and isn't going to lead us to the playoffs. So the answer to your question is Shedeur Sanders.

@Mr. Football  

The Cowboys are trading up for Travis Hunter?

I love that WAS/Henderson pick. Daniels/Henderson together in the backfield would be terrifying.

Can't see Shemar Stewart slipping out of the 1st RD. The upside is just too immense. That's a Myles Garrett athletic profile. Stewart currently has very healthy Vegas odds to go in the 1st RD.

ATL-related question: The Falcons currently have Ruke Orhorhoro as the starting NT on their depth chart. Orhorhoro is a decent run-stopper that I've heard ATL is high on, but he's very slim for a 3-4 NT. He seems to be best suited for 3-4 DE, but I've heard nothing as far as ATL kicking the tires on pure NTs like Kenneth Grant and Tyliek Williams during the pre-draft process. It seems a clogger like Grant would free up ATL's bevy of undersized edge-rushers to get home to the QB and improve that 29th-ranked sacks-from-pressure rate. Do you think ATL is really satisfied with Orhorhoro at NT? They've only had potential 3-4 DEs (TJ Sanders, Omarr Norman-Lott) in for Top30 visits. Just seems odd.

@42yardline 

Honestly, "Travis Hunter no matter what" is what the Titans should be saying.

This mock is air tight. It really is hard to argue with Vegas. Even the CHI/Warren match - which I don't think will happen - could be accurate in terms of prospect/pick number because 1.10 is easily a spot where a team like IND might move up for Warren.

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

Not that Gutekunst wouldn't grab Stewart and his RAS in a New York second - I just think Stewart comes off the board much earlier. We're talking about an EDGE prospect with the same athletic profile as Myles Garrett. Some team is going to bite on that upside early.

I just can't see Dart and his pop-gun, scheme specific arm in the AFC North - especially in PIT, where it still looks like it might be moon ball city. Milroe - as reachy as it feels - seems the fit there.

I think something weird will happen with the Giants at 1.03. Just a gut feeling. There are character whispers with Abdul Carter to go along with the injury red flags. Your CAR trade up makes a ton of sense, but I could also see a risk-averse, conservative organization like NY take Mason Graham. He's one of the safest picks in the draft and the Giants desperately need a 3T to complement Lawrence. First "shocker" pick? (Everybody in the universe has Graham locked in at 1.05, so two picks higher wouldn't be that shocking, IMO.)

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

The Browns are desperate for a QB and are the sucker organization that will move up for Ward. CLE sends 1.02, 2.33, 3.67, 3.94 and CB Craig Newsome II to TEN for 1.02 and 2.35. TEN drafts Hunter at 1.02, then trades into the 1st RD for Dart (who DOES fit Callahan's scheme). After the draft, TEN acquires Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins as a bridge.

This mock is air tight. It really is hard to argue with Vegas. Even the CHI/Warren match - which I don't think will happen - could be accurate in terms of prospect/pick number because 1.10 is easily a spot where a team like IND might move up for Warren.

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

Not that Gutekunst wouldn't grab Stewart and his RAS in a New York second - I just think Stewart comes off the board much earlier. We're talking about an EDGE prospect with the same athletic profile as Myles Garrett. Some team is going to bite on that upside early.

I just can't see Dart and his pop-gun, scheme specific arm in the AFC North - especially in PIT, where it still looks like it might be moon ball city. Milroe - as reachy as it feels - seems the fit there.

I think something weird will happen with the Giants at 1.03. Just a gut feeling. There are character whispers with Abdul Carter to go along with the injury red flags. Your CAR trade up makes a ton of sense, but I could also see a risk-averse, conservative organization like NY take Mason Graham. He's one of the safest picks in the draft and the Giants desperately need a 3T to complement Lawrence. First "shocker" pick? (Everybody in the universe has Graham locked in at 1.05, so two picks higher wouldn't be that shocking, IMO.)

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

The Browns are desperate for a QB and are the sucker organization that will move up for Ward. CLE sends 1.02, 2.33, 3.67, 3.94 and CB Craig Newsome II to TEN for 1.02 and 2.35. TEN drafts Hunter at 1.02, then trades into the 1st RD for Dart (who DOES fit Callahan's scheme). After the draft, TEN acquires Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins as a bridge.