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@Charles Beagle 

I get that CHI drafted Odunze to ensure Caleb Williams won't be lacking for quality targets anytime soon, but my God would Chop Robinson or Dallas Turner have looked good opposite Montez Sweat. Pace may have even been able to grab either after trading down with a team desperate to move up ahead of MIN for McCarthy or Nix. Pace kinda blew that one, IMO.

You're seriously overthinking the Rams/motivation angle.

"If the Rams win this game and the next one....provided SEA beats MIN, which is very possible...I don't know if the Rams will know this..."

MIN beating SEA is also very possible, and I'm sure the Rams are aware that they'll be alone in first place if that happens and they TCB vs. the Jets.

The Jets have done well the past two weeks because Mike McDaniel and Doug Pederson happen to be two of the few HCs that don't have a pronounced advantage over Jeff Ulbrich and company. Sean McVay won't let the Rams walk into an ambush.

@Osmodiar 

Agree, but is there a tackle worth taking in the top-10?

When the Rams and Niners met in Week 3, the Rams were without Nacua and Kupp, while SF still had Mason, Aiyuk, Trent Williams and Hargrove...and the Rams won 27-24 as 6.5 point dogs.

The Rams have 1 turnover in the last four games, while the Niners have 8.

On career snaps Brock Purdy has played with Trent Williams in the lineup, the SF offense has averaged 0.18 EPA per play. On snaps taken without Williams in the lineup, the EPA drops to 0.0.

Since 2023, SF averages 2 TDs p/game when Trent Williams is injured. The Niners are 1-2 without Williams this season. In 2023, Purdy had 28 TD/2 INT with a healthy Williams, and 3 TD/9 INT without.

Sean McVay is 6-2 on short rest.

When the Rams and Niners met in Week 3, the Rams were without Nacua and Kupp, while SF still had Mason, Aiyuk, Trent Williams and Hargrove...and the Rams won 27-24 as 6.5 point dogs.

The Rams have 1 turnover in the last four games, while the Niners have 8.

On career snaps Brock Purdy has played with Trent Williams in the lineup, the SF offense has averaged 0.18 EPA per play. On snaps taken without Williams in the lineup, the EPA drops to 0.0.

Since 2023, SF averages 2 TDs p/game when Trent Williams is injured. The Niners are 1-2 without Williams this season. In 2023, Purdy had 28 TD/2 INT with a healthy Williams, and 3 TD/9 INT without.

Sean McVay is 6-2 on short rest.

When the Rams and Niners met in Week 3, the Rams were without Nacua and Kupp, while SF still had Mason, Aiyuk, Trent Williams and Hargrove...and the Rams won 27-24 as 6.5 point dogs.

The Rams have 1 turnover in the last four games, while the Niners have 8.

On career snaps Brock Purdy has played with Trent Williams in the lineup, the SF offense has averaged 0.18 EPA per play. On snaps taken without Williams in the lineup, the EPA drops to 0.0.

Since 2023, SF averages 2 TDs p/game when Trent Williams is injured. The Niners are 1-2 without Williams this season. In 2023, Purdy had 28 TD/2 INT with a healthy Williams, and 3 TD/9 INT without.

Sean McVay is 6-2 on short rest.

@Baird 

That is so embarrassing.

Might be 6-0. Then again, the Jets need their annual late-season/meaningless win that ensures they drop out of range for a decent QB in the draft.

@DoctorJ 

My only beef with this analysis is the defensive stats angle. DET's defensive stats have to be taken with a huge grain of salt now that their front seven has been decimated by injury. I mean, Glenn's scheming is top-notch, but when you're down to starting guys like Al-Quadin Muhammad, Pat O'Connor, Jonah Williams, Ezekial Turner...that's gotta catch up to you.

@Baird 

LV absolutely can't run the ball. They shouldn't even waste their time trying vs. TB. I imagine Irving/White/Tucker will find success from jump, so O'Connell should be flinging it early and often. The TB pass D is susceptible.

The Bucs are awful defending the slot. If Tykee Smith is OUT again, Meyers could practically be running against air. Bowers will do his usual Bowers things, so there's real shootout potential in this one - assuming LV puts forth a little effort. I don't see why they wouldn't - it's not as if they're coming down from anything. They were never in contention to begin with. Pierce and his staff are awful, but the players like them, so I can't imagine LV just full-on rolling over.

I'm sniffing around an O'Connell/Meyers/Bowers stack for DFS tournaments, maybe with an Otton runback. (Two-TE uniqueness/Mike Evans hurt, QUESTIONABLE).

I'm with you on the Giants emerging with the #1 pick. Miserable vibes in that locker room. Drew Lock is now operating behind 3rd-string OTs...that's going to get really ugly. Schoen and Daboll feel like dead men walking.

My top play this week is ATL+1.5 at home. I think the Falcons win SU. Maybe even comfortably.

It's assumed that Jim Harbaugh's strong running game/strong defense foundation will travel well vs. a team like ATL, but way too many cracks are forming in that foundation to ignore.

For Harbaugh's formula to succeed, Gus Edwards will need to bite off chunks, and I don't see that happening. He looks totally cooked. (Yeah, maybe Hassan Haskins/Kimani Vidal get plugged in and do some damage, but I wouldn't count on it.)

As improved as the LAC O-line has been, ATL's O-line is better - especially with Drew Dalman healthy again. ATL should be able to control the LOS against an overrated and injured LAC run defense.

The rash of LB injuries leaves it up slowpokes like Nick Niemann to deal with Bijan Robinson swinging out of the backfield. This does not bode well for the Chargers. Even if Derwin James plays closer to the LOS, that would mean trash like Marcus Maye getting too much run at safety. Either way, there's going to be ample space for ATL's speedy targets.

Cousins should be pretty cozy in the pocket. Bosa and Mack are playing hurt and seriously dragging ass toward the season's finish line. London, Mooney and maybe even Pitts should all eat vs a very susceptible LAC secondary. (Asante Samuel Jr. is out for the season. Alohi Gilman and Cam Hart are OUT, while Kristian Fulton is predictably regressing. Derwin James can't be everywhere at once.)

I would have liked Herbert to keep pace in a shootout a few weeks ago, but not now. Not without Dobbins, and not with Quintin Johnston regressing back to BUST form after an unsustainably efficient start to the season. Ladd McConkey might even be banged up. (Beware the rookie wall.)

Harbaugh's records ATS off a loss and in cross-country games are impressive, but they're still just trends and are outweighed by a lot of emerging problems for the Chargers - especially in a game sandwiched between the Harbaugh Bowl and @KC in prime time next week. ATL has TB on their ass and should show up.

Sharps on the Jets as Ian Rapoport reports Aaron Rodgers won't return to the Jets next season lol.

@Baird 

"I suck at betting AZ & NO "

Same here. But I think I may have finally figured the Cardinals out. (As for the Saints - they had their little, new rah-rah coach, pre-bye fun. I think the Rams beat them in workmanlike fashion.)

ARI GM Monti Ossenfort and Jonathan Gannon were great hires. They're establishing culture the right way and the arrow is pointing up for the organization. So when they face teams that are poorly coached (those pre-bye Ws vs. MIA, CHI and NYJ perfect examples), they TCB - especially if the opponent struggles vs. the run. Otherwise, the Cardinals can be had. They just don't have a very talented depth chart (especially on defense) and it catches up to them when they face teams with a good coaching staff. You take away Conner, and the offense becomes little more than McBride-or-bust, as none of the WRS have been able to create separation or YAC this season. Petzing's scheme has grown predictable and has shackled Murray. (One game above 21 rushing yards since Week 5.) The interior O-line is a glaring weakness and was fully exposed by SEA.

The Vikings are extremely well-coached and nails vs. the run. ARI doesn't match up well at all. As for the Flores blitz vs. Murray angle, I'm calling for variance. I would bet MIN if not for the Pace injury and my distrust of Sam Darnold.

@xndrshadow 

Milroe might be the Anthony Richardson, "upside" prospect.

@Karensman 

Ohio resident here. Seems like the Burrow/wrist quotes are being overblown a bit. He basically just said that - in the past - cold weather has had an affect on his injuries, which is just kinda "duh". He said he "could have been better" throwing in practice, but "I/we could have been better" is his weekly default answer for everything, so I wouldn't read too much into that.

@Baird 

How dare you pooh-pooh the great Dan Skipper!

I want so badly to throw some cabbage at CHI. Offense is ramping up a bit since the Waldron firing and return of some O-line starters...Moore/Allen/Odunze vs. those DET CBs...could be CHI's Super Bowl...it all screams back door. Then I remember Campbell vs. Eberflus. And like you said, CHI may be running on fumes.

The injuries don't seem to be letting up for SF. New reports say Fred Warner has a fractured ankle (would explain those uncharacteristic missed tackles lately), and Trent Williams was just seen in the SF locker room using a knee scooter. Reportedly, he "can barely walk" and is probably dealing with an Achilles injury. Not good. Both are likely trending more toward trips to the IR than returns to health.

Niners are just getting eaten alive by the injury bug. Beginning to wonder if there's something to that Super Bowl Loser Curse stuff.

I don't buy the Cardinals as a great team. Screw the net adjusted EPA.

Great teams aren't flat off a bye when they're going into a divisional matchup for first place.

Kyler Murray isn't playing well right now. I recently read an article describing Murray as "deluxe Daniel Jones". That might not be too far off. Six seasons in, and we're still waiting for Murray to blossom.

I don't buy the Cardinals as a great team. Screw the net adjusted EPA.

Great teams aren't flat off a bye when they're going into a divisional matchup for first place.

Kyler Murray isn't playing well right now. I recently read an article describing Murray as "deluxe Daniel Jones". That might not be too far off. Six seasons in, and we're still waiting for Murray to blossom.

@v2micca 

Ardent Jets fan here. You are 100% right. The Jets are receiving nothing but negative press right now. If/when Rodgers is benched or injured, the switch to Tyrod Taylor might actually push the Jets toward underrated territory. Even at 35, Taylor probably still has functional mobility - which Rodgers absolutely doesn't anymore.

@Baird 

The more I think about it, the more confident I am that this is going to be a "bad Jameis" game. All the signs are there: Crappy weather...Chubb and Conklin shells of their former selves...no viable LT vs. a PIT defense that has been letting T.J. Watt pick his spots against both edges...Minkah Fitzpatrick waaay overdue for a pick-six...a potential feast for Harris/Warren vs. a JO-Kless CLE defense that has forgotten how to tackle...it could get ugly. So much so that PIT might get comfortably ahead, ease up, and let Winston feed Njoku for some garbage time goodness or something. I like PIT and the OVER.

@Karensman 

Nick Chubb is a month shy of his 29th birthday. That's old relative to RBs, and Chubb is a very old 29. Last season's leg injury was vomit-inducing, and he had an equally gross leg injury in college.

Chubb is the heart and soul of the team - so his return has some short-term "good vibes" value - but he just doesn't look the same. Given his age/mileage, I think it would be a miracle if he ever will.

As for Stafford - yeah, everyone in the NFL is playing hurt to some degree, but not all injuries are equal. From what I've gathered, Stafford's main issue is his back - and back issues are often career-killers. Stafford is approaching 37. He's still a high-level QB, but It just feels like he's on borrowed time.

@Baird 

The rain/wind should be advantageous for PIT. It only strengthens the Boswell>Hopkins angle.

I think Nick Chubb may be cooked; if Winston has to throw it around, the TOs could easily pile up for CLE. Harris/Warren were biting off chunks vs. BAL, so running on CLE should be no problem.

I'm liking CHI as a home dog. Very often, mid-season coordinator firings are just a case of somebody taking the fall for organization-wide problems, but in the case of Shane Waldron, I think he really was the problem. The Bears should improve going forward, and I don't trust Sam Darnold in this spot.

@Baird 

Freakin' Taysom Hill, man. Feels like he's been around since 2002, and he's one of those Mormon mission BYU grads...how is he not like 47 years old? Spends most of his time injured, only popping up to go nuclear when it ruins NO's draft position and absolutely screws me in betting and DFS tournaments. I wish he'd just stop.

Just piss-poor special teams and overall tackling from CLE. Rare quiet game from Myles Garrett. I still think CLE was the right side, although I probably underrated the absence of JO-K. He would have come in handy in limiting Hill.

I'm probably a glutton for punishment, but I'm sniffing around CLE +4 at home vs. PIT. Feels like a trap game for the Steelers.

@Baird 

As a Rams fan, how do you like their WC chances? I'm having trouble getting a read on them. Unprepared and mistake-prone was what I expected from MIA, not the Rams. Just feels like there's some angle I'm missing that might have them overvalued right now. Youth? So many of their key contributors are 1st/2nd year guys...

I think the Havenstein injury could be a real problem vs. the Pats. Keion White and Deatrich Wise are a quietly dominant tag team at LDE.

PIT, IND win SU.

LAC, ATL, NYJ win in blowouts.

Feeling TB and HOU covers.

Happy hunting, gentlemen.

@Karensman 

Betting the Browns is icky, but a few things:

Stefanski is a solid coach, IMO. No coach would have succeeded in the situation management forced upon him with the Watson signing.

I don't know much about Darren Rizzi, but I know this: Teams almost always get a pronounced one-game bump upon an in-season coaching change. Even with that bump, the Saints still would have lost at home to an obviously flat ATL squad had it not been for some last-minute clock mismanagement by the Falcons and three missed Younghoe Koo FGs. Like Marquez Valdez-Scantling's stat line, that victory was an obvious fluke.

Kamara may be the best offensive weapon in this matchup, but beyond him, it's crap like MVS, Foster Moreau and some guy called Mason Tipton for the Saints. I'll take Njoku, a healthy Chubb/Ford RB tag team, and the Tillman/Jeudy/Moore WR trio over what the Saints are trotting out any day. (Small sample size, but since CLE traded Amari Cooper, Cedric Tillman is second only to Ja'Marr Chase by many WR performance metrics.) The Saints - already down C Erik McCoy - may also be without the left side of their O-line for this one. The NO offensive depth chart is a disaster.

As for MIA - I'm not sure how legit Monday's win was. Not sure if a game vs. a team as untalented and poorly-coached as LV will provide us any clarity, either. Kinda wait-and-see with MIA. Tua isn't pushing the ball downfield, Tyreek is obviously hurt, and the Austin Jackson injury means a RT Kendall Lamm vs. LDE Maxx Crosby glaring mismatch. A Raiders win wouldn't shock me, but I'm not touching that game.

@Karensman 

Regarding the CIN/LAC spread - I think bettors are still leaning hard into the "this is a must-win for the Bengals" angle. It's an obvious and fair take, but it can be argued that CIN has been close to (or even in) must-win territory for weeks now, yet they continue laying eggs. Expecting this week to be the week the Bengals suddenly flip the switch is starting to feel like definition of insanity from a betting perspective. Joe Burrow is playing as well as can possibly be expected, yet CIN keeps coming out flat and losing. The CIN O-line sucks, the defense is a one-man show (Hendrickson), and Zac Taylor just can't light a fire under his team while being a miserable in-game manager. All the evidence says that CIN just isn't very good, yet bettors are falling into the trap of valuing them by what they should be instead of what they are.

My top play is CLE. I think the Browns win SU - maybe even comfortably - so getting any points is a gift. The Saints used up all their "We finally fired our crappy coach!" mojo last week and will come down to earth. Matchup wise, all signs point to a "Good Jameis" game (CLE offense getting healthy, gutted NO secondary) and domination from Myles Garrett (injured/weak NO tackles). 

I'm passing on BAL/PIT. Always tight rivalry game that could easily hinge on some in-game injury or suspect calls (as you suggested). However, I'm not comfortable with the recent Russell Wilson hype and could see him fade a bit, not unlike Justin Fields' early-season rise and fall. Just a hunch - not bettable just yet.

PIT, IND win SU.

LAC, ATL, NYJ win in blowouts.

Feeling TB and HOU covers.

Happy hunting, gentlemen.

@Baird 

I think BUF is most likely to be the weird one that loses. The Bills are no doubt the better team with better coaching, but the Dolphins just plain score a lot of points when Tua is under center. This is also must-win time for MIA, whereas BUF is so comfortably ahead in the AFC East that there may already be a need to manufacture motivation. The true QUESTIONABLE tags for Amari Cooper and Christian Benford are also concerning if you're on BUF.

I can't back ARI with any confidence, even with all of the O-line problems and defensive injuries for CHI. The ARI defense is just so untalented. While their 4-4 record is commendable considering their SOS, it still feels like a flimsy 4-4. That defense will start hemorrhaging points at any moment. 

Tough slate. I could go either way on most of the games this weekend. The most solid bets are ATL -3 and PHI -7.5, IMO. I'm kinda liking CLE as a home dog and definitely liking DET as a road favorite. (DET is a tough-minded team built to control the LOS, so the "Goff/dome team" angle as overblown, IMO. DET could easily dominate the trenches in what is shaping up to be a slop fest, especially with GB center Josh Myers DOUBTFUL.)

@Karensman 

IND/MIN jumped out at me too - especially with the Darrisaw injury - but I've hesitated knowing the Vikings might get Blake Cashman and T.J. Hockenson back. There's serious potential for a "last team with the ball wins" game with Flacco replacing Richardson, and it feels like I'm usually on the wrong side of those games. I saw the Richardson benching coming about the time he checked himself out of the game vs. HOU, and just went with the OVER on 45.5. Could easily clear 50, IMO.

I'm going to continue to fade the Jets until it's not profitable. Every "Which Teams Will Turn Their Season Around In The Second Half?" article I've read this week has the Jets at the top of the list, which tells me that the public still can't wrap their head around the idea that the Jets are no more than exactly what they appear to be. There's still meat on that bone.

The (hostage) situation with NYJ/Rodgers is similar to CLE/Watson was in that everything is predicated on the QB holding up his end of the bargain, otherwise everything falls apart. It doesn't matter if the Jets sign all of Rodgers' BFFs and every 2019 NFC Pro Bowler - if Rodgers is drastically compromised by age/injury (which is becoming more apparent by the week) then the season is lost, especially with Rodgers apparently resisting treatment in favor of "cayenne and water' home treatment. (Wish I was kidding.)

@Karensman 

Cousins is a good play. Murray has become too unpredictable.

ATL/TB has definite shootout potential, even without Godwin/Evans. The Falcons have no pass rush and no Justin Simmons means more room over the middle/downfield. I have a hunch the Bucs paste together an effective passing game with swings to R. White (he's much better in that role than as a rusher) and a ton of stuff over the middle to Otton, McMillan and maybe even Sterling Shepard. (Shepard was Mayfield's security blanket at Oklahoma. They have history.)

GL and enjoy

@Baird 

Yeah, trends don't last forever and every game is different. I only consider trends when I've exhausted every other possible angle and all things are equal.

The Parsons/Bland news sobered me up. That, and the realization that DAL - at 3-3 - likely isn't in "must win" mode yet. That could be next week @ ATL. My initial lean just feels a week too early. Should Parsons and/or Bland return @ ATL, I'll probably be on the Cowboys.

I still think the 49ers are slightly overrated, but the Cowboys are really hurting. There was talk of Tyler Smith sticking at LT - which I liked - but it looks like DAL will continue to ride out Guyton's growing pains. Bosa could easily go nuclear on Guyton/Steele. A dominant Bosa game, a healthy dose of Jordan Mason (DAL has no answer vs. the run) and a sprinkle of Kittle should be enough for something like a 26-20 SF win.

UPDATE: Parsons and Bland are OUT for DAL, with Kendricks questionable. The forecast is now calling for 10-15 MPH winds, so weather shouldn't be too much of a problem. Seriously questioning my DAL pick now, especially after reading a deep dive into DAL's extreme vulnerability to outside zone running schemes. Also worried about Nick Bosa taking turns on DAL's turnstile OTs.

@WFDevTeam 

So Panthers over Broncos it is.

@Karensman 

Regarding Cooper Kupp - I think the Rams are trying to maximize his trade value before the Nov. 5 deadline. Get him as healthy as possible for a high-volume showcase game tonight, then sell high. Maybe squeeze a 3rd-rounder from a slot WR-needy team like PIT or something.

Yeah, Baker Mayfield's slim MVP chances may have evaporated with the Godwin injury. Godwin's slot role is the fulcrum of Liam Coen's scheme. Huge loss. If any NFC QB will challenge Lamar Jackson/Patrick Mahomes for MVP it's probably Jared Goff at this point. Longshot though. (I'm guessing Lamar gets his third. Feels like he's on a mission.)

My favorite plays this week are IND and DAL.

I caught IND +5.5 figuring that line would tighten up once/if Jonathan Taylor and DeForest Buckner are cleared to play. Even if they don't, the HOU defense is soft up the middle and severely banged up right now, and the offense is in an awful rut without Nico Collins. IND could easily win SU.

Caught DAL +4.5. That line could tighten, too. (Bland, Parsons, Kendricks, Deebo) There's value in fading SF right now, IMO. They're still being priced closer to recent 49ers vintage than what they actually are right now. Their offense is injury-plagued, their defense is susceptible and they have a real problem at kicker. With 25-30 MPH winds in the forecast, Aubrey could give DAL a huge advantage in this one - assuming he doesn't miss the game for jury duty. 

I still like the LAC's Wild Card chances, especially once their CBs and WRs get healthy. Beyond BUF/BAL/HOU/KC, the AFC is a jumble. I think PIT and DEN will cool down and have seen no indication that Jeff Ulbrich and Aaron Rodgers are capable of turning the Jets around.

The Titans just suck. Ran Carthon is making all the wrong decisions, from letting Mike Vrabel go to overpaying for Spagnuolo scheme-specific fool's gold L'Jarius Sneed.

At this point, a bet on CLE is a bet that the DEF/ST will score a TD or two. The offense flat-out doesn't score points. How long before Myles Garrett and company tap out?

It's like a restaurant where the line cooks are constantly getting slammed while the grossly overpaid chef does nothing but sit in his office getting hand j*bs from waitresses. Eventually the cooks are gonna lay down their spatulas and tongs and walk out.

CIN 38 CLE 12

"This is Cleveland's Super Bowl"

Teams don't trade their best offensive weapon right before the Super Bowl.

The Bengals/Giants game was NY's Super Bowl (Daboll went for it on seemingly every 4th down), yet CIN - in a flat spot off an OT heartbreaker to BAL - still managed to cover. At 2-4, CIN is still in must-win mode while CLE is already trading vets in preparation for a post-Watson rebuild.

@Karensman 

With you on the LAC/ARI OVER.

We know about ARI's defense, but they also happen to be the worst defense vs. explosive runs, and JK Dobbins just happens to be near the top of the league in explosive run %...with Slater and Alt now healthy. The Chargers will run at will.

On the other side, LAC are near the bottom in explosive passing plays allowed, and might be without their top 3 CBs and likely without LOLB Joey Bosa to take advantage of ARI's O-line weak link at RT. Murray is overdue an eruption. I think that 44 gets dusted.

At this point, a bet on CLE is a bet that the DEF/ST will score a TD or two. The offense flat-out doesn't score points. How long before Myles Garrett and company tap out?

It's like a restaurant where the line cooks are constantly getting slammed while the grossly overpaid chef does nothing but sit in his office getting hand j*bs from waitresses. Eventually the cooks are gonna lay down their spatulas and tongs and walk out.

CIN 38 CLE 12

At this point, a bet on CLE is a bet that the DEF/ST will score a TD or two. The offense flat-out doesn't score points. How long before Myles Garrett and company tap out?

It's like a restaurant where the line cooks are constantly getting slammed while the grossly overpaid chef does nothing but sit in his office getting hand j*bs from waitresses. Eventually the cooks are gonna lay down their spatulas and tongs and walk out.

CIN 38 CLE 12

@Karensman 

I don't think that Amari Cooper was ever really a game-changer. Like Walt said, his value lies in route-running/efficiency/reliability; a Henry Ellard/Isaac Bruce-type that remains an effective starter even at 33-34 years old. I don't think he's slipped this season - I think he was just done with waving at Watson's inaccurate passes. (He was visibly frustrated the last few games.)

Reliability is exactly what Josh Allen needs at WR. It was good of CLE to trade Cooper to a contender that will feed him properly. It was also a clear indication that they know the season is lost. Laying cabbage on a team that has packed it in and is led by a very expensive Zach Wilson just doesn't seem like a good idea. DEF/ST TDs aren't going to happen every week.

I shudder to think what the CLE offense will look like now. A million Jerry Jeudy wind sprints broken up by the occasional dropped pass I guess. Elijah Moore...I don't even bother to check if he's active or inactive during DFS research anymore because it really doesn't matter. The Browns better hope Njoku stays healthy. (He won't. The downside of being an Adonis is that you're also a pulled muscle waiting to happen.)

What you said about recognizing and getting ahead of the curve on teams that are improving/trending in the right direction is such an important aspect of betting. Foundational, really. I always try to sniff out the dog with a sustainable plan/direction vs. the directionless favorite.

"Deshaun Watson just played his best game of the season"

Watson had 47 yards at halftime and didn't lead a TD drive in the game. Again. His QBR was 34.6, somehow his 2nd highest of the season.

That 11-for-11 3rd-quarter completion streak was just fluky momentum-riding from the Myles Garrett/Rodney McCloud blocked FG/TD that made the halftime score 10-10 instead of PHI up 13-3...and possibly halftime locker room threats from Garrett, who is likely tired of the defense carrying the team.

"Watson had both of his starting tackles on the field for the first time all season"

Like it matters. Watson still took 5 sacks and 10 knockdowns. He's taken 5+ sacks in 4 of 6 starts and 31 sacks this season; 10 more than the next highest number. He took 4 sacks p/game last season with a healthy interior O-line and Wills Jr. in the lineup. He hasn't accounted for even 200 yards or more than one TD in any game this season.

Wills Jr. sucks. He has since his rookie season. He had two false start penalties (including 4th-and-goal) and a 42.4 PFF grade vs. PHI. This is typical Wills Jr. stuff when he's not injured. He was PFF's 56th-ranked OT last season. (51.3)

Conklin (57.9 PFF) is a shell of his former self, just as high-mileage Nick Chubb will assuredly be when he returns from a horrific knee injury and has to run behind the likes of Michael Dunn and Zac Zinter (41.6 PFF).

Fun stats:

The CLE offense (13.5 PPG) is last in the NFL by every imaginable metric, including a 13.8% 3rd-down conversion rate. The offense hasn't scored in it's last 29 drives.

Through six games, Watson is last in the NFL in EPA, QBR, sacks taken and pocket success rate. (Behind Will Levis, mind you.) His pocket success rate (33.3%) is ahead of only David Carr, Josh Rosen, Akili Smith, Blaine Gabbert and JaMarcus Russell this millennium.

Since 2006, of 566 passers graded through weeks 1-6, Watson is ranked:

QBR - 558th

Yards p/drop back - 565th

1st Down Rate - 566th

Three seasons into his 5-year contract, Watson has never thrown for 300 yards and has accounted for 2+ TDs twice.

The Watson signing was a catastrophic blunder and his coaches and teammates know it. (Amari Cooper has 100% checked out.) Watson is absolutely broken and I'm not sure if Anthony Munoz and Jon Ogden would make a difference at this point. Until Watson is benched, this is a bottom-5 team.

The injury report confusion mentioned in the IND/TEN write-up is becoming too common. It's getting old. I get that teams manipulate the injury report to create uncertainty for their opponents, but you'd think the league would want to minimize uncertainty for bettors/fantasy players considering how huge those markets are to the NFL's financial success. The league has to figure out a way to tighten this up.

@Walt

You're overestimating the impact Wills Jr. and Conklin might have on what's going on in CLE. Wills isn't very good and Conklin is an aging, walking surgery scar who's likely washed. Lack of continuity on the O-line is obviously going to be an issue for any team, but the performance drop off from Wills Jr./Conklin to James Hudson III/Dawand Jones hasn't been the problem it's made out to be. The problem is Deshaun Watson. Don't feel like a noob for fading CLE; the noob thing would be to assume Watson will suddenly do anything but suck.

That said, the +9 worries me. This could easily be the game where the Browns get behind a few scores early and finally yank Watson for Winston. Winston is obviously no savior, but he can fling it and provide enough spark for a backdoor.

EARLY GAME STUFF:

NO +2.5   I liked ATL -1.5, but the one-point bump in a game for which I have no solid feel has me spooked. The Saints have a battered O-line, but so do the Falcons. (Storm Norton vs. Carl Granderson could be a serious problem for ATL.) I could see one of those silly Taysom Hill-fueled Saints Ws here just as easily as a Younghoe Koo walk-off FG. Taking the points.

CIN -4.5   I'm wondering if the Bengals are broken and should be faded until we see evidence of the switch being flipped. I'm very tempted to get out ahead of that possibility here.

LAR +3   Coaching mismatch and another Kyren Williams smash spot.

GB -2.5   Jordan Love is an assassin vs. the blitz. I'm counting on negligible rust from Love, and for Sam Darnold to start showing signs of turning back into a pumpkin.

HOU -5.5   The Jags might come out with a little fire in their bellies and keep it close in the first half behind a healthy dose of Etienne, but HOU will eventually pull away with a 2nd half air show. There's also a strong possibility that JAX should simply be faded until Pederson is canned.

IND +2.5   Going contrarian here. In a bizarre turn of events, Fields finally commits a few TOs and Richardson finds moderate, efficient success behind some Jonathan Taylor chain-moving.

The PIT O-line is an underrated weakness. No Kwity Paye hurts IND, but I think Laiatu Latu steps up to menace Fields into a few mistakes.

PIT wins on a Boswell FG, but only by two. Then next week they'll destroy the Cowboys.

NYJ -8   I anticipate no letdown for the Jets here. They are well-rested and focused.

The Jets and new WR2 Mike Williams are owed some good karma. This is the season they get it. With Garrett Wilson erased by Pat Surtain, Williams steps up for a 2 TD day. Breece Hall rolls for 100+ and the defense confounds Bo Nix on the way to a workmanlike 27-13 W.

TB +1   As long as Vita Vea plays and isn't too compromised by that sprained knee, I like the home dog here.

Happy hunting, fellas.

I wanna get ahead of the curve on a couple of NFC West teams.

OVERRATED  San Francisco 49ers

Sure, the loss to the Rams was kinda fluky...but it wasn't totally fluky. I'm not as comfortable assuming Kyle Shanahan will right the ship and coast to another playoff spot as I've been in recent years.

Like Sean McVay and Bill Belichick, Shanahan's stability/system ensure the 49ers will never be an easy out. However, I'm getting the sense that this might be the season where we see injury/depth attrition become too much to overcome.

Christian McCaffrey is reportedly seeking treatment from overseas doctors for his degenerative leg issues. That can't be good. Any Shanahan team will be able to run the ball, but it was a healthy McCaffrey that became Brock Purdy's best friend and brought this offense from good to great.

Serious problems are brewing at OT. Colton McIvitz is the worst RT in the NFL (with no viable alternative on the roster), and Trent Williams is showing signs of mortality. Williams is 36 years old and the injuries are becoming more frequent. Purdy is fine with a healthy McCaffrey and airtight edge protection, but without those the house of cards collapses.

The SF defense is not as good as recent vintage. The Kyren Williams explosion was no fluke.

This isn't that foundational Bosa/D.J. Jones/Buckner/Armstead D-line with high-quality depth like Arden Key, Charles Omenihu, Javon Kinlaw, Dee Ford, etc., rotating in. With the Hargrove injury, the current D-line is just Bosa and some JAGS, with subpar depth. With Dre Greenlaw's injury shaping up to be a season-long issue, this is a mediocre unit beyond Bosa and Warner.

UNDERRATED  Seattle Seahawks

Many assume that SEA's 3-0 record is just fattening up on cupcakes - and that's fair - but I'm guessing that assumption is wrong.

First of all, recent SEA teams would have lost one of those games. Pete Carroll's schemes and rah-rah act had grown stale. The new regime is fresh and innovative. I'm probably leaning too much on the "good vibe" in Seattle, but I think it'll prove sustainable as the Grubb/Macdonald schemes fully click.

I'm predicting that in a few weeks the Grubb/Geno Smith marriage will join O'Connell/Darnold in the "reclamation QB renaissance" narrative. The SEA offense is ready for takeoff, and once Walker is healthy they'll be humming. If RT Abraham Lucas can ever get healthy, they'll really be cooking with gas.

As a Jets fan, I'll NEVER predict a Geno Smith-led team to contend for the SB, but 10 or 11 wins and a surprise run to the NFC Championship are on the table for SEA.

I wanna get ahead of the curve on a couple of NFC West teams.

OVERRATED  San Francisco 49ers

Sure, the loss to the Rams was kinda fluky...but it wasn't totally fluky. I'm not as comfortable assuming Kyle Shanahan will right the ship and coast to another playoff spot as I've been in recent years.

Like Sean McVay and Bill Belichick, Shanahan's stability/system ensure the 49ers will never be an easy out. However, I'm getting the sense that this might be the season where we see injury/depth attrition become too much to overcome.

Christian McCaffrey is reportedly seeking treatment from overseas doctors for his degenerative leg issues. That can't be good. Any Shanahan team will be able to run the ball, but it was a healthy McCaffrey that became Brock Purdy's best friend and brought this offense from good to great.

Serious problems are brewing at OT. Colton McIvitz is the worst RT in the NFL (with no viable alternative on the roster), and Trent Williams is showing signs of mortality. Williams is 36 years old and the injuries are becoming more frequent. Purdy is fine with a healthy McCaffrey and airtight edge protection, but without those the house of cards collapses.

The SF defense is not as good as recent vintage. The Kyren Williams explosion was no fluke.

This isn't that foundational Bosa/D.J. Jones/Buckner/Armstead D-line with high-quality depth like Arden Key, Charles Omenihu, Javon Kinlaw, Dee Ford, etc., rotating in. With the Hargrove injury, the current D-line is just Bosa and some JAGS, with subpar depth. With Dre Greenlaw's injury shaping up to be a season-long issue, this is a mediocre unit beyond Bosa and Warner.

UNDERRATED  Seattle Seahawks

Many assume that SEA's 3-0 record is just fattening up on cupcakes - and that's fair - but I'm guessing that assumption is wrong.

First of all, recent SEA teams would have lost one of those games. Pete Carroll's schemes and rah-rah act had grown stale. The new regime is fresh and innovative. I'm probably leaning too much on the "good vibe" in Seattle, but I think it'll prove sustainable as the Grubb/Macdonald schemes fully click.

I'm predicting that in a few weeks the Grubb/Geno Smith marriage will join O'Connell/Darnold in the "reclamation QB renaissance" narrative. The SEA offense is ready for takeoff, and once Walker is healthy they'll be humming. If RT Abraham Lucas can ever get healthy, they'll really be cooking with gas.

As a Jets fan, I'll NEVER predict a Geno Smith-led team to contend for the SB, but 10 or 11 wins and a surprise run to the NFC Championship are on the table for SEA.

@Mr. Football  

Love is blind.

The Cowboys are in trouble. The league-wide safety shell trend is making running the ball/stopping the run more important than we've seen in decades. DAL can do neither. Like, not at all.

@biskit52250 

He has the Vikings at #4. Can't hate them that much.

"The Bears don't have the best depth at CB"

Huh? Jaylon Johnson is the best CB in the NFC. Tyrique Stevenson is emerging as a high-quality, ball-hawking CB2 and ideal complement to Johnson. Slot CB Kyler Gordon grades as one of the best in the league. CB4 Terell Smith would be CB2 for some teams. None are older than 25.

I get that the Browns have talent, but I think you're underrating what a massive albatross Deshaun Watson and his contract are for the organization.

Performance-wise, Watson has clearly checked out after getting paid, and with the new sexual assault accusations it seems just a matter of time before he's benched and/or released. That's demoralizing, season-killing stuff, and Joe Flacco is no longer around to give CLE a short-term boost.

Chubb and Conklin will probably never be the same, and Jedrick Wills hasn't been good since his rookie season. With the Njoku injury, points will be hard to come by and we could see a very frustrated Browns defense before long. The whole situation in CLE points more toward a spiral than improvement.

I get that the Browns have talent, but I think you're underrating what a massive albatross Deshaun Watson and his contract are for the organization.

Performance-wise, Watson has clearly checked out after getting paid, and with the new sexual assault accusations it seems just a matter of time before he's benched and/or released. That's demoralizing, season-killing stuff, and Joe Flacco is no longer around to give CLE a short-term boost.

Chubb and Conklin will probably never be the same, and Jedrick Wills hasn't been good since his rookie season. With the Njoku injury, points will be hard to come by and we could see a very frustrated Browns defense before long. The whole situation in CLE points more toward a spiral than improvement.

@SadisticNobility 

TEN's success hinges on whether Levis is the guy at QB. If he's not, TEN won't win many games. Judging by what we saw today, Levis has not improved from last season. I don't think his penchant for back-breaking turnovers is going to just go away.

TEN/CHI

Agreed that CHi may be a bit overrated and TEN a bit underrated going into this season, and wouldn't be surprised if the Titans win SU. However, your reasoning for backing the Titans seems kinda flimsy.

The "Caleb Williams couldn't even lead USC to a top-five finish" is a very apples to oranges angle. (And yes, I would say that the Bears have top-end talent, especially at the skill positions. Don't think I've ever seen a rookie QB set up better for immediate success.)

Calling TEN's pass rush "swarming" is generous. Jeffrey Simmons is the only front-7 stud. Harold Landry is perfectly average and Arden Key is JAG. With a solid, experienced O-line and Williams' escapability, Williams should stay mostly clean. The Titans have upgraded the talent level on both sides of the ball, but with brand new schemes and so many new faces (including Latham and Sweat - raw rookie at key positions), we can't assume TEN will come storming out of the gates.

Also - I'm not ready to anoint L'Jarius Sneed as a bona fide CB1 just yet. I could easily be wrong, but I have to wonder if - like the army of late round/UFA CBs that broke the bank in free agency then flopped after thriving in Belichick's Patriots scheme - Sneed's success in KC was partly due to Spagnuolo's scheme, where Spags can seemingly insert any late round/UFA CB and make it work as long as they're long and rangy. I think Sneed could be regarded as another TEN free agency fool's gold overpay in a few years.

Lastly, I'm not sure why the "unknown" of Will Levis is kinda getting the benefit of the doubt while William's "unknown" isn't. Other than Levis' clean debut last season, he was bad; bad on the surface and what looks to be sustainably bad according to underlying metrics.

DAL/CLE

Again, no problem with the CLE pick. The Bland injury and depleted DAL O-line probably makes CLE the right side. (Assuming Deshaun Watson hasn't completely checked out...which is very possible and potentially catastrophic.) My only problem here is leaning on the "DAL can't stop the run" angle, as it may be considered outdated in a few weeks. 

Unlike Dan Quinn, Mike Zimmer prioritizes stopping the run. In Quinn's big nickel scheme, the LBs were usually Damone Clark and a safety. With the scheme change and Bland injury, the Cowboys will be susceptible to good passing attacks for a while. But with the additions of Eric Kendricks and DeMarvion Overshown, and the reported offseason improvement of NT Mazi Smith, rushing yards figure to immediately be harder to come by vs. DAL.

LV/LAC

This reeks of a statement game for the Chargers after that 63-21 snot-bubble beating LV gave them to put the final nail in Brandon Staley's coffin. That has to be considered when handicapping this game. Also to be considered: Pierce/Harbaugh is a coaching mismatch until proven otherwise.>

t;

@petermwb 

Daniel Jones-miss

It's been fun. Good luck!

@The Champ 

Yeah, Trey Pipkins shouldn't be starting. (Jamaree Syler, either.)

My thinking with the hypothetical Slater trade is LAC would receive Jonathan Allen along with WAS's 2.36 or 2.40. (Slater is just 25 and Allen is 29/expensive, so I think the compensation is fair.)

With one of WAS's 2nd RD picks to go along with their native pick at 2.37, I'm guessing the Chargers would be able to net Kingsley Suamataia for RT, or perhaps even Tyler Guyton in a moderate trade up into the late 1st RD. At the very worst, they could still come out of Day 2 with an upside RT prospect like Rosengarten, Brandon Coleman, etc. A cheap, risk/reward one-year bridge like slobberknocker Jack Conklin could easily be added, allowing Suamataia to ease in at RG for a season. There are options.

Bottom line: Harbaugh has a very specific vision and wants his kinda guys to build around Herbert. (Also, there's no way Harbaugh goes into next season without an interior DL linchpin.) My approach to the LAC draft is that NO starter from the prior regime is safe, especially if they're expensive or about to become expensive. They're tradeable assets. Hell, Keenan Allen was Herbert's one-and-only security blanket and Hortiz/Harbaugh banished him without hesitation.  

I'm no QB expert, either. I played a little and like to think I've learned a thing or two having spent an unhealthy amount of hours over the years soaking up QB-specific breakdowns from evaluators I respect, but there are mechanical nuances that I'm still iffy on. More importantly, I'm not privy to interviews/whiteboard sessions. So much of QB success is dependent on the prospect's character and whether or not the environment he's drafted into is optimal for his development. It's a crapshoot. The historic bust rate for 1st RD QBs reflects that.

With all that said, I'll add this: While I have my doubts about Drake Maye (plus arm/mobility - not elite, IMO. Not Josh Allen. Questionable accuracy/decision-maker, poor on-target % from clean pocket), Daniels is even riskier. Your critique of Daniels was being kind, as you didn't even mention his frame or his hesitance/lack of anticipation when working the middle of the field. I'm familiar with the Daniels/sack rate under pressure info, and it's alarming. It also totally checks out on tape. With Daniels, it's so often look-look, eyes down and dip. Often right into a sack. Sure, sometimes he works his way through the backfield congestion and into the open field for a highlight run, but that won't happen as often in the NFL, and when it does, he will be severely punished if he doesn't learn to protect himself. He's so skinny. Reports say he sometimes played at 190 last year. That's absolutely terrifying. He's approaching 24 and not likely to get much bigger. His Pro Day was almost sad. He's skinny, he knows he's skinny and he was obviously trying to hide it.

So yeah, high bust potential with both Maye and Daniels, which is why I'm not absolutely convinced NE won't take MHJ at 1.03 then target Penix or Nix later on.

What I find very odd is that - for all of Daniels' red flags - it's Maye that's constantly given the fine-tooth comb treatment from the media, while Daniels' even more alarming concerns go relatively unmentioned. The media just hums along as if Daniels at 1.02 is a given. I'm not sure that it is.

@The Champ 

I don't know about you, but I'm currently chin-deep in draft scenarios/puzzle solving. So much fun. Truly the most wonderful time of the year.

Bill Belichick recently stated that everything draftniks hear this time of year is agent-fed, and only what you hear 12 hours or less before the draft can be trusted. I don't think that's 100% true, but I'd say it's about 90% true. About a week out is when I go into "chaos mode". That's when I heavily filter the rumors and speculation, take a step back from all the comfortable consensus, and really try to sniff out the uncomfortable and not-yet-thought-of picks/trades that would initially shock, but then make you think, "Yeah, that actually makes sense". Because that's what happens in the real draft.

Last year around this time I started kicking around the idea of HOU drafting Stroud then trading up for Will Anderson. (I can't remember if it was you or NoHeroes, but I bounced the idea off of one of you guys in the comment section for a day or two.) I was convinced the trade was going to happen and made it a permanent part of my mock, but like a moron I deferred to Lance Zierlein's faulty Texans intel at the very last moment and removed the trade from my contest mock. I don't want to make the same mistake this year. That's why I pick your brain. (Probably too often. Sorry.) You think logically but outside the box. So many mocks just copy the media consensus. Those mocks are always wrong, so why do people keep going down that road?

Anyway, here are my two candidates to be the agents of chaos that throw everyone's 2024 top 10 into disarray:

1) The Patriots at 1.03.

I'm pretty sure Williams/Daniels go 1/2, and I believe Charlie Campbell when he says NE would prefer Daniels to Maye/McCarthy but be "okay" with QB3. But I still have my doubts whether the Pats like Maye/McCarthy better than MHJ or even Joe Alt.

For me, drafting Maye/McCarthy over MHJ or Alt is a pretty healthy reach. I get that standard rules go out the window when you desperately need a QB, but the Pats also desperately need a WR1 and LT. If I was a Pats fan, I think I would be more excited about -- let's say -- MHJ or Alt at 1.03 and a trade up into the mid/late 1st for Penix than Maye/McCarthy at 1.03 and Kingsley Suamataia at 2.34. or a trade up into the mid/late 1st for Tyler Guyton. I still think QB-QB-QB-MHJ is most likely, but I'm getting less comfortable with it by the day.

2) Joe Alt/Teams that need a LT

I just don't think the 1.07 TEN/Alt chalk is going to happen. It almost seems like when folks are creating their mocks, they're inking that pick in first then working around it. There are just too many plausible scenarios that take Alt off the board by then.

Alt to NE at 1.03. Extreme longshot, but possible.

Alt to LAC at 1.05. VERY possible. Hortiz is a Ravens guy. (I don't need to reel off examples...you know how highly BAL values O-line on draft day.) I also don't need to tell you how perfectly Alt fits the profile of a Harbaugh OT...or how the Ravens and Harbaugh have historically built their team identity through a dominant O-line/defense, etc, etc.

Alt at 1.06. This seems an obvious scenario to me, but I've never seen a single mock with a team trading right ahead of TEN for Alt. Alt (or MHJ) is arguably the cleanest blue chip in this draft; teams are going to want to move up for him, and they all know where they need to go to get him.

I think you're on to something with your CHI/Fashanu pick. Braxton Jones has surprised, but if you're Ryan Poles and in range for a perennial Pro Bowl LT, you go for it without a second thought to Jones. I say why not take it one step further? With Caleb Williams and that defense, the Bears aren't going to be in range for a LT of Alt's quality for a long time, and franchise LTs simply don't reach the open market. (While Pro Bowl WRs are traded constantly and high-quality WR draft prospects seem increasingly plentiful by the year.) Why not use that extra '25 2nd -rounder from CAR, move up to 1.06 for Alt and ensure Caleb William's edge protection is air-tight for the next decade? At 1.09, the Giants could draft Brock Bowers. Darren Waller is finished, and it seems every organizational move the Giants make lately just mimics what the Buffalo Bills did yesterday. The Giants could run their offense through Bowers just as BUF will run theirs through Dalton Kincaid. 

The Saints could also move up to 1.06 for Alt. They've made their bed with Derek Carr, and he has no chance without vast and immediate OT upgrades. The Saints currently don't have a viable LT option on their roster. There's no guarantee Fashanu makes it to them at 1.14 and Fashanu is far from a sure thing anyway. There will be O-linemen popping off like crazy in the teens, but Troy Fautanu is the only one ready to man LT and he may not meet NO's size standards.

@petermwb 

No, the biggest question is which prospect will have the cutest girlfriend/sister/mom.

Also: Rakestraw -- One of NE/ATL/DET/CAR/JAX

@The Champ 

No doubt LT is in play for the Rams. I imagine it would be Mims or Guyton. I can't see any of Alt, Fashanu, Fautanu, Fauga, Latham being on the board at 1.19.

I just wonder what they'll do about EDGE then. Maybe Marshawn Kneeland in the 2nd? Maybe he could play that Elephant OLB role opposite Byron Young. Chris Braswell? They really need more pass-rushing juice with no Aaron Donald and no Raheem Morris manufacturing pressure with smoke and mirrors.

I just noticed that IND's odds of drafting a TE first went from +425 to +250 overnight, while the Jets odds for drafting a TE actually went from +130 to +135, with O-line now at -105. Colts trade up for Bowers?

I'm seriously confused by so much of this mock.

Was that MIN/NYG trade supposed to be MIN/LAC? The Giants are the team MIN would be looking to trade AHEAD of for a QB, not trade WITH. The ensuing NYG pick at 1.11 makes no sense, either. The Giants hired O-line guru Carmen Bricillo to work with RT Evan Neal, signed RT Jermaine Eluemunor as a hedge, and signed Jon Runyan Jr. to start at RG. Why would they target RT/RG J.C Latham?

Where are you hearing that WAS prefers Maye over Daniels at 1.02? All I've heard is that Adam Peters has given zero indication as to what he'll do at 1.02. Honestly curious.

Brock Bowers would be redundant and beyond a luxury pick for the Bears. CHI acquired middle-of-the-field weapons Allen and Everett to go along with Kmet, and D.J. Moore's short-area quickness makes him dangerous on buuble screens, crossing patterns, etc. Teams prioritize diversifying their aerial attack, so why would CHI opt for Bowers over Odunze?

"Olumuyiwa Fashanu looks like a franchise left tackle". The Raiders already have one in Kolton Miller. Fashanu is a finesse blocker who's passive in the run game. He's pretty much the opposite of what Telesco/Pierce are probably looking for at RT/RG. Snot-bubble run-blockers like Fuatanu and Fauga make more sense.

The seriously doubt the Saints will pass on Fautanu, Fuaga or Mims for an EDGE. They just signed Chase Young for 1 yr/$13M and extended Cam Jordan 2 yr/$28M (guaranteed). Carl Granderson (4 yr/$52M) is entrenched as a starter. Isaiah Foskey was a '23 2nd-rounder. It would be stupid to burn any more premium resources on EDGE when they currently have no sure starters at LT, RT, and LG for 2024.

I like Kamari Lassiter and think he's being kinda undervalued right now, but I'd bet my pinkie he doesn't come off the board ahead of Quinyon Mitchell.

Marist Liufau and Johnny Dixon - Day 3/UFA prospects - in the top-40? Ahead of Johnny Newton and Chop Robinson??

Considering Kaden Prather was just out there for Maryland's spring game, going in the 2nd RD would be a neat trick.

@The Champ 

Bo Nix at 1.12 is a fireable offense. Comically low ADOT and when forced out of that comfort zone he's observably anxious. Even at the Senior Bowl.

Some concerning transferable metrics and obviously the injury history, but Lord Almighty does Penix have an arm. Just incredible. How do you not take a chance on him in the 1st RD? Not buying the "elite supporting cast" stuff, either. Even on a woefully outclassed Indiana squad, I remember Penix giving the Buckeyes all they could handle. 

It's worth noting that Adam Shefter and various MIN and HOU beats have reported that MIN didn't initiate the 1.23 trade with HOU. The Texans called MIN because they needed a 2nd-rounder to trade for Stefon Diggs. The common assumption that the Vikings are dead set on moving up has been extrapolated from the fact that they acquired that extra 2nd-rounder, but the truth is that nobody knows for sure if moving up for McCarthy/Maye is MIN's endgame. It's all speculation. The Vikings are just as likely to target Byron Murphy II at 1.11 then work the board from 1.23 for Penix.

Bowers' O/U is now at 12.5 with heavy action on the over. Shefter reported that his realistic range is the teens. A TE with questionable size/athleticism who is obviously avoiding pre-draft testing is not going in the top 10.

@Warrior 

I can't see Ballard taking Bowers with zero workout numbers. Ballard is RAS-obsessed. A TE like Theo Johnson (9.99 RAS) on Day 2 seems more Ballard's style.

I think we're all overthinking the Chargers. Joe Alt is a Hortiz/Harbaugh LT if there ever was one.

@Walt

Anyone that finds the pairing of peanut butter and jelly anything but totally logical, yummy and American -- while being okay with any mint food product under their roof -- is obviously a Communist.

Trading up for Amarius Mims would be the ideal move for the 49ers. Shockingly easy movement skills at 340 lbs. Mims was made for blocking out in space in a wide zone. Instant upgrade on the right side and potential heir to Trent Williams.

ARI moving out of range for MHJ and settling for BTJ as Kyler Murray's new WR1 and a boom-or-bust 3T feels icky. I think the Cardinals will ultimately stay put, and J.J. McCarthy will come off the board in the 9 to 12 range.

Agree on Nix and Penix. Not 1st-rounders. Nix especially.

This is seriously impressive. I can tell that you're knowledgeable of the type of prospects teams go for -- even into the mid/late rounds. Perfect example: Elijah Jones to KC in the 3rd RD. Jones is the prototypical, long Spagnuolo CB that the Chiefs usually find later in the draft. Great stuff.

The only questionable haul is IND, IMO. Ballard is RAS-obsessed. Bowers has provided no testing numbers, but I understand the need/value match. Lassiter and Estime were disappointing athletic testers. Trends change, but I can't see Ballard not coming out of Day 1 or 2 without at least one RAS monster. This is just nitpicking, though. Overall, this mock is awesome.

I see we both have the Chargers taking Harbaugh's spirit animal at 2.37.

For the Rams, I'm guessing they'll move Kobie Turner off the nose and into his natural 3T role. I could see EDGE at 1.19 and maybe a 5T like Ruke Orhorhoro at 2.52.

I see we both have the Chargers taking Harbaugh's spirit animal at 2.37.

For the Rams, I'm guessing they'll move Kobie Turner off the nose and into his natural 3T role. I could see EDGE at 1.19 and maybe a 5T like Ruke Orhorhoro at 2.52.

I think Byron Murphy II could easily be the BPA on Schneider's board if available at 1.16 and would be a great pick for SEA. He could thrive in the Madubuike role in Macdonald's scheme. The Seahawks could always plug LG with Laken Tomlinson or something. Why not upgrade from Dre'Mont Jones and bring the DL from just decent to a legit strength?

Sainristil seems like a Campbell kinda guy, but I'm not sure he'd be worth that 1st RD investment for DET with Branch established in the slot. I know DET said they might move Branch around the secondary a bit more, but Melifonwu and Joseph are entrenched in 2-safety sets, and I can't imagine DET would go too heavy on 3-safety looks considering their talent/depth at LB. I mean, they just burned a 1st on Jack Campbell and he's LB3. I imagine Branch will continue to see a majority of his PT in the slot.

In your scenario, I think DET would go with Latham or Mims. That battering ram O-line has kinda become their team identity and I bet Holmes/Campbell want to keep it that way. Decker might not be around in two years. Why not draft Latham or Mims, plug one in at G for now (returning Glasgow to his deluxe utility lineman role), then when Decker moves on, move Sewell to the blindside and Mims/Latham to RT?

I'm seriously confused by so much of this mock.

Was that MIN/NYG trade supposed to be MIN/LAC? The Giants are the team MIN would be looking to trade AHEAD of for a QB, not trade WITH. The ensuing NYG pick at 1.11 makes no sense, either. The Giants hired O-line guru Carmen Bricillo to work with RT Evan Neal, signed RT Jermaine Eluemunor as a hedge, and signed Jon Runyan Jr. to start at RG. Why would they target RT/RG J.C Latham?

Where are you hearing that WAS prefers Maye over Daniels at 1.02? All I've heard is that Adam Peters has given zero indication as to what he'll do at 1.02. Honestly curious.

Brock Bowers would be redundant and beyond a luxury pick for the Bears. CHI acquired middle-of-the-field weapons Allen and Everett to go along with Kmet, and D.J. Moore's short-area quickness makes him dangerous on buuble screens, crossing patterns, etc. Teams prioritize diversifying their aerial attack, so why would CHI opt for Bowers over Odunze?

"Olumuyiwa Fashanu looks like a franchise left tackle". The Raiders already have one in Kolton Miller. Fashanu is a finesse blocker who's passive in the run game. He's pretty much the opposite of what Telesco/Pierce are probably looking for at RT/RG. Snot-bubble run-blockers like Fuatanu and Fauga make more sense.

The seriously doubt the Saints will pass on Fautanu, Fuaga or Mims for an EDGE. They just signed Chase Young for 1 yr/$13M and extended Cam Jordan 2 yr/$28M (guaranteed). Carl Granderson (4 yr/$52M) is entrenched as a starter. Isaiah Foskey was a '23 2nd-rounder. It would be stupid to burn any more premium resources on EDGE when they currently have no sure starters at LT, RT, and LG for 2024.

I like Kamari Lassiter and think he's being kinda undervalued right now, but I'd bet my pinkie he doesn't come off the board ahead of Quinyon Mitchell.

Marist Liufau and Johnny Dixon - Day 3/UFA prospects - in the top-40? Ahead of Johnny Newton and Chop Robinson??

Considering Kaden Prather was just out there for Maryland's spring game, going in the 2nd RD would be a neat trick.