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Mr. Bitter

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Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 day(s) 0 hour(s) ago

Tony Pauline stated that Lemon "won't get past the Rams" at 1.13. Still, I wonder if we're falling into a trap. (I've had Lemon to the Rams in my mock so far, too.) The Rams led the NFL in 2 and 3 TE looks last season, and I think it was only partly for the lack of a quality WR3 - I think it's what they want to do on offense. If that's the case, I could see them moving down a bit for one of the RT prospects (not sold on McClendon as the long-term answer) or maybe even plug Ioane in at LG and move Avila back to C. The ultimate move would be a move up for Mauiga.

Watch out for the Bucs to move up for Bailey or Bain. My mocks always have TB plugging their EDGE hole opposite Diaby with Mesidor or Faulk, but both feel forced. The Bucs usually go for highly productive prospects that fit the scheme.

I like the Cowboys to move up, too - but not for Bailey. My hunch is they want Sonny Styles. If Styles is available at 1.06, I can see the Browns trading down with DAL.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
5 day(s) 10 hour(s) ago

Love this mock. TEN/Bain may be the way; Saleh's teams have always invested heavily in his 4-3 D-line. Also like the Rams/OL pick. People forget that the Rams play out of 2 or 3 TE sets most of the time and have marginal need for another WR. I could actually see the Rams target Mauigoa in a trade up.

I'm with you on the Browns trading down. I have TB moving up to #6 for Bailey in the mock I'm currently banging out. I believe the Bucs want to come out of this draft with Maxx Crosby, Bain or Bailey. Mesidor won't cut it.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 7 day(s) 19 hour(s) ago
@Mr. Football So which team is Pickens getting traded to? 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 12 day(s) 6 hour(s) ago
Drew Shelton in the 1st round is ridiculous. 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 15 day(s) 5 hour(s) ago
I see your Beetle Bailey and raise you one Andy Capp. 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 15 day(s) 5 hour(s) ago
Excellent, per usual. Exceptionally thorough. My only nitpick is BUF/Concepcion. With Kincaid, Knox, Moore, Shakir and Palmer all working the middle of the field, there's not a lot of room for another slot-type to operate. I think the Bills need some size on the boundary with Coleman looking like a bust. The dream is a trade for George Pickens, but maybe Denzel Boston at 1.26? 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 21 day(s) 20 hour(s) ago - hide
Excellent. Just wondering if Fano fits at LT given the arm length issues. Will Campbell did alligator-armed OT prospects no favors with his miserable playoff performance. If the Browns don't want Fano at #6, do they go Freeling (pure LT but reachy) or maybe even Tate? Perhaps BPA with Bain or Styles? 1 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
15 day(s) 6 hour(s) ago

@PrimeTimePerri

It's an especially difficult draft to predict. None of the OTs, WRs, DEs or CBs are blue chippers and could pop off anywhere. The Vegas odds are trickling out so hopefully that'll offer some clarity. Vegas currently has Mauigoa and Freeling in a dead heat to be the first O-lineman drafted, for what it's worth.

Also, as a Jets fan, I hope you're right about Lemon at 1.16. He's one of my favorite prospects in the draft.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 21 day(s) 20 hour(s) ago
Excellent. Just wondering if Fano fits at LT given the arm length issues. Will Campbell did alligator-armed OT prospects no favors with his miserable playoff performance. If the Browns don't want Fano at #6, do they go Freeling (pure LT but reachy) or maybe even Tate? Perhaps BPA with Bain or Styles? 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 21 day(s) 20 hour(s) ago - hide
Excellent. Just wondering if Fano fits at LT given the arm length issues. Will Campbell did alligator-armed OT prospects no favors with his miserable playoff performance. If the Browns don't want Fano at #6, do they go Freeling (pure LT but reachy) or maybe even Tate? Perhaps BPA with Bain or Styles? 1 0

	PrimeTimePerri • 2 Posts (1 ) • 16 day(s) 2 hour(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter the more I look at the draft and the players the more I think you're 100% right. The offensive linemen seem like reaches, filling a WR hole or trading down and addressing OLine later seems like the move. 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 16 day(s) 13 hour(s) ago
@pinballer3 You're right about Banks. Big guys with bad feet usually doesn't end well. I'll be dropping him in my next mock. It's too bad - with his size/agility, he'd be top-10 if healthy. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
21 day(s) 19 hour(s) ago

Would be shocked if Bailey fell that far. He's probably the cleanest prospect at a premium position in this class.

The Skattebo/Love combo would be so fun. I think TEN could easily pick Love, but if they don't, I hope the Giants do. Tyrone Tracy is okay when healthy and I have to think Harbaugh will be sniffing around Muaigua to complete the O-line, so NYG/Love is doubtful IMO. Hope I'm wrong.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 month(s) 1 day(s) ago

@The Champ

This draft is giving me 2018 vibes when it comes to the O-linemen. If you project Mauigoa strictly as a guard, he's a clean, plug-n-play bulldozer with All-Pro upside, much like Quenton Nelson in '18, when he was the first O-lineman off the board at 1.6. Freeling is like Kolton Miller, the late-rising LT specimen drafted at 1.15.

I could see the Browns taking Mauigoa at 1.6 as the foundational piece for the O-line rebuild (even if he's just a guard), then Freeling popping off from 1.10 to 1.13.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 month(s) 1 day(s) ago
@42yardline I think Cashius Howell would be a great fit for BUF. Fast, intense, alpha 3-4 EDGE that they need, especially with Bosa and Epenesa FAs. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 4 month(s) 8 day(s) ago - hide
Why the sudden fall to late-1st for Fano? 0 0

	jrkloster • 24 Posts (12 ) • 2 month(s) 5 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter I'm not sure what they are thinking on this site. There is nothing wrong with Fano and he will go top 5. 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 4 month(s) 8 day(s) ago
Why the sudden fall to late-1st for Fano? 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 22 day(s) ago - hide
Kyler Murray. Mac Jones. Malik Willis. One of these men will be under center for the Jets next season. 0 0

The Champ • 148 Posts (31

) •
2 month(s) 14 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter And I will guess that Minnesota ends up trading for Mac Jones. They still have a championship-level defense and they cannot possibly go into next season with McCarthy as the starter. Jones has some Darnold-esque qualities and would be taking on almost the exact same path that Darnold did. Yeah, they'll likely have to part with a 2nd/3rd Round pick (and maybe an additional later pick) to acquire him, but Adofo-Mensah has to be on the hot seat because they chose to not only draft McCarthy, but then chose not to make a serious offer for Darnold, and look where Seattle is now. If they don't make the playoffs next season, I believe he's going to get fired. As such, I don't think he stakes his job on hoping that Kyler Murray rebounds, not to mention that his cap hit would be a lot higher. Jones' isn't, which allows them to keep paying their defense and offensive skill positions.

As to where Murray winds up, I truly have no idea. Maybe the Steelers? I could see them in the Willis business too, and if that did happen, then maybe Murray would make some sense for the Jets. But I really do like the Mac Jones fit for Minnesota. Would just seem to fit the KOC system really well and because he's under contract cheaply he fits their roster structure of a win-now, highly paid defense. (And Justin Jefferson.)

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 22 day(s) ago
Kyler Murray. Mac Jones. Malik Willis. One of these men will be under center for the Jets next season. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 22 day(s) ago - hide
Kyler Murray. Mac Jones. Malik Willis. One of these men will be under center for the Jets next season. 0 0

	The Champ • 148 Posts (31 ) • 2 month(s) 14 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter I will guess that it's Willis. They have the cap space to pay him and Miami (people will make the obvious GB connections) doesn't, thanks to Tua's gargantuan cap hit whether he's on the team or not. Similar to Russell Wilson's hit with Denver, they will have to manage the position by going cheaply, and Willis will price them out. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
2 month(s) 22 day(s) ago - hide

Saturday's Predictions

BUF +1

The team that wins the LOS wins this game. As good as the DEN defense is, I like Allen/Cook behind that seasoned, cohesive BUF O-line better than I like Nix/Harvey. There's also a good amount of "Josh Allen is just better than Bo Nix" baked into my pick. If Ed Oliver plays, I'm sprinkling some on BUF.

SEA -7

I have a hunch this is the weekend the magic ends for DEN, CHI (late-game comebacks) and SF (injury-decimated). This is usually the time of year where the unsustainable catches up and the more balanced, boring teams advance. Darnold scares me, but he doesn't have to be pretty as long as Walker/Charbonnet continue to bite off explosive plays and the defense does its thing. I just see no reason why SF will fare any better than they did in WK 18, especially without Kittle.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 22 day(s) ago
@42yardline AJ Brown wouldn't be able to deal with being WR2 in NY. First things first: Our inevitable overpay for Malik Willis or trade for Mac Jones or Kyler Murray. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
2 month(s) 22 day(s) ago

Saturday's Predictions

BUF +1

SEA -7

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
2 month(s) 22 day(s) ago - hide

Saturday's Predictions

BUF +1

SEA -7

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 22 day(s) ago
@Billl2021 Darnold basically said it isn't a big deal, but I've got my eye on the injury reports and for any indication that the sharps smell blood. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
2 month(s) 22 day(s) ago - hide

Saturday's Predictions

BUF +1

SEA -7

	42yardline • 58 Posts (19 ) • 2 month(s) 22 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Sound logic on your Saturday Divisional pcks, I agree. Also, your Jets have some money to spend and the need is there- should the Jets trade for A.J. Brown or do you think he would be reading too much Grisham and Baldacci while on the bench? 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
2 month(s) 22 day(s) ago - hide

Saturday's Predictions

BUF +1

SEA -7

	Billl2021 • 39 Posts (17 ) • 2 month(s) 22 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold was added to the injury report Thursday and is listed as questionable for Saturday’s divisional playoff game against San Francisco with an oblique injury.. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
2 month(s) 22 day(s) ago - hide

Saturday's Predictions

BUF +1

SEA -7

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 22 day(s) ago
@WFDevTeam RJ Harvey sure doesn't run mean. He runs tentatively and inefficiently. I don't think DEN will be able to fully take advantage of BUF's greatest weakness. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
2 month(s) 22 day(s) ago - hide

Saturday's Predictions

BUF +1

SEA -7

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 22 day(s) ago
@WFDevTeam SEA has been so consistent under MacDonald. I thought SEA -7 was on the nose for a bit, but then I figured that SEA beat SF by 10 in Frisco, and now SEA is rested and at home. Also: SEA gets back Cross, while SF loses Kittle. Unless Darnold implodes, I just see SEA giving SF a workmanlike beating. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
2 month(s) 22 day(s) ago - hide

Saturday's Predictions

BUF +1

SEA -7

WFDevTeam • 139 Posts (30

) •
2 month(s) 22 day(s) ago

wfdevteam

@Mr. Bitter

Walt's take away from the Broncos Packers game isn't the same as mine. At the beginning of that game I remember the Broncos getting into the Packers faces about something. They strike me as a 'mean' team. Its not my favorite look in sports but usually teams with a streak of mean to them fair well. Enough for me to not want to touch that game.

I do think SF is around because the Eagles offense self-destructed. SEA has shown they won't do that. The number looks on the money though. Wouldn't be surprised if SEA wins by 7 on the dot.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 23 day(s) ago
@broncoselway Fortune cookies are wrong all the time. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
2 month(s) 25 day(s) ago

Just one whiff ATS so far this weekend, and -of course - it was my lone money game. (Thanks, Eagles. Jesus.) I'm with Walt tonight and like PIT to win SU.

I know PIT should have lost to BAL. I know about Anderson and Hunter screaming off the EDGE. I know about Stingley and Lassiter at the boundaries. The thing is - and as Walt described - the PIT offense will be attacking the HOU LBs and safeties with quick shots to Gainwell and the TEs...and the HOU LBs and safeties can be had in coverage. (Especially To'oTo'o, a miserable coverage LB.)

I'm not sold on the Texans, and this is a spot (home dogs, MNF, getting disrespected a lil' bit-type game) where PIT traditionally cashes. Unless HOU jumps on PIT early, PIT will drag HOU into a low-scoring brawl in which the Steelers and their formidable front seven will gain confidence by the minute. PIT by a Boswell FG.

PIT 20 HOU 17

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 26 day(s) ago
@petermwb Word is that Miami (FL) is trying to lure Ty Simpson back to college after losing out on Sam Leavitt. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 29 day(s) ago - hide
Since their Week 8 bye, the JAX defense has faced Geno Smith, Davis Mills, Justin Herbert, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Ward, Riley Leonard, Brady Cook, Bo Nix, Philip Rivers and Brandon Allen. 0 0

	Billl2021 • 39 Posts (17 ) • 2 month(s) 26 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Jacksonville gave that game away. They could have run the ball on the outside the whole game. They were picking up 8 yards a carry on the outside. Also after Allen was hurt they never pressured him. I would of put pressure on him every play. Oh well onto the next one. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 29 day(s) ago
Since their Week 8 bye, the JAX defense has faced Geno Smith, Davis Mills, Justin Herbert, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Ward, Riley Leonard, Brady Cook, Bo Nix, Philip Rivers and Brandon Allen. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 26 day(s) ago
@WFDevTeam You know your team well. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 26 day(s) ago
@iEatCrayons A.J. Brown for sure has gotta go. I can't get over how lethargic PHI looked on offense at times. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 29 day(s) ago - hide
Since their Week 8 bye, the JAX defense has faced Geno Smith, Davis Mills, Justin Herbert, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Ward, Riley Leonard, Brady Cook, Bo Nix, Philip Rivers and Brandon Allen. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 27 day(s) ago
@Billl2021 I get the splits and I don't trust the BUF defense at all. (Although news that Van Lanen is OUT may create more wiggle room for Rousseau and Bosa.) I just envision a healthy Allen and Cook going wild and simply outscoring JAX. Non-bet, though. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 29 day(s) ago - hide
Since their Week 8 bye, the JAX defense has faced Geno Smith, Davis Mills, Justin Herbert, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Ward, Riley Leonard, Brady Cook, Bo Nix, Philip Rivers and Brandon Allen. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 27 day(s) ago
@Billl2021 Thanks. I figured the Bears would keep the 4th quarter magic going vs. GB. That ride is over, though. The Bears are going to get Saquan Barkleyed to death next weekend, especially with T.J Edwards OUT. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 29 day(s) ago - hide
Since their Week 8 bye, the JAX defense has faced Geno Smith, Davis Mills, Justin Herbert, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Ward, Riley Leonard, Brady Cook, Bo Nix, Philip Rivers and Brandon Allen. 0 0

	Billl2021 • 39 Posts (17 ) • 2 month(s) 27 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter In the four games with QB Josh Allen, the Bills' defense has been the statistical difference on the road versus at home (33.5 points per game allowed on the road and 19.8 allowed at home). 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 29 day(s) ago - hide
Since their Week 8 bye, the JAX defense has faced Geno Smith, Davis Mills, Justin Herbert, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Ward, Riley Leonard, Brady Cook, Bo Nix, Philip Rivers and Brandon Allen. 0 0

	Billl2021 • 39 Posts (17 ) • 2 month(s) 27 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Great job on both games yesterday. That Bears game was one for the ages! 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 29 day(s) ago - hide
Since their Week 8 bye, the JAX defense has faced Geno Smith, Davis Mills, Justin Herbert, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Ward, Riley Leonard, Brady Cook, Bo Nix, Philip Rivers and Brandon Allen. 0 0

	Billl2021 • 39 Posts (17 ) • 2 month(s) 27 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter McDermott is 0-5 in road playoff games. And home teams are 10-3 in wildcard playoffs the past year. 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 29 day(s) ago - hide
Since their Week 8 bye, the JAX defense has faced Geno Smith, Davis Mills, Justin Herbert, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Ward, Riley Leonard, Brady Cook, Bo Nix, Philip Rivers and Brandon Allen. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
2 month(s) 27 day(s) ago

@woo hoo

Coen was a great hire. But this is his first playoff game, and I can't shake the feeling that the Jags peaked too early - and against a cupcake stretch of schedule.

I love the young, foundational pieces along the JAX front seven, but Allen/Cook present a challenge unlike JAX has seen.

This is not to say I'm confident that the Bills will win. It's all predicated on Allen being healthy, and that's not a given. I also don't like a BUF defense that may need to put an extra man in the box just to help their weak LBs vs. Etienne, which would open up the JAX passing game. Hell, I don't even like that JAX has such a pronounced advantage at kicker.

All I know is this: If healthy, Allen could easily put the Bills on his back. The Bills went over 26.5 points in all three of their playoff games last year, and have done so in 7 of their last 9 playoff games. The Jags haven't had to worry about a QB that can put up those kinda points for an eternity.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 29 day(s) ago - hide
Since their Week 8 bye, the JAX defense has faced Geno Smith, Davis Mills, Justin Herbert, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Ward, Riley Leonard, Brady Cook, Bo Nix, Philip Rivers and Brandon Allen. 0 0

iEatCrayons • 26 Posts (21

) •
2 month(s) 27 day(s) ago

@woo hoo

I kinda have agree here. Not saying Jax Run D isn't good but there a good Risk/Reward on Cook on this game. Jax hasn't faced good QB/RB combo since the bye, atleast nothing close to Allen/Cook. They played bad QBs (as Mr.Bitter noted) and then blew out bad teams, that is a big contribution to their leading Run D.

Tough betting today... but do think Cook will Cook.
Cook +80 RushYds, +105 Combo Yards, +18.5 attempts
(Also got Barkley +80 RushYds)

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 29 day(s) ago - hide
Since their Week 8 bye, the JAX defense has faced Geno Smith, Davis Mills, Justin Herbert, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Ward, Riley Leonard, Brady Cook, Bo Nix, Philip Rivers and Brandon Allen. 0 0

	woo hoo • 13 Posts (7 ) • 2 month(s) 27 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter I get the concern but the Jaguars run defense is legit because of Devin Lloyd and the Bills have been a more run-oriented team this season. The Bills receivers vs Jaguars secondary is a wash. The main reason for optimism with the Jaguars is Liam Coen. The team has fully bought in to him and he has looked like a smart coach so far. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
2 month(s) 28 day(s) ago - hide

Saturday Predictions

I'm still pissing in the wind when it comes to handicapping the AFC Wild Card games, but I think I have a decent read on the NFC side.

CAR +10.5

We all know how fluky CAR's earlier win over the Rams was, but I won't be shocked if CAR does it again. Home playoff dogs getting 10+ points historically almost always cover because they have nothing to lose. It's why all three teams that have made the playoffs with a worse point differential than CAR won SU in the Wild Card round. House money and all that.

All the pressure is on LA. The Rams are 3-3 in their last six, yet are commonly regarded as the best team in the NFC and expected to win three straight on the road, beginning with a cross-country trip to CAR. I don't think it will be that easy.

Notes: Rams get back D. Adams and Q. Lake, but will be without the right side of their O-line (K. Dotson and R. Havenstein). CAR LDE D. Brown lines up over RG and could dominate...CAR gets back behemoth RG R. Hunt, increasing the likelihood that Dowdle/Hubbard get back on track vs. LA's undersized run-stop unit...The LAR CB depth chart is weak. E. Forbes Jr. in particular can be targeted with success...Last time these teams played, CAR was without J. Horn, T. Moehrig, C. Rozeboom and C. Cherelus...Needs to be talked about more: CAR may have a secret weapon vs. LAR in DC Ejiro Evero. It might be no coincidence that the LAR offense also struggled against ATL and Raheem Morris - another coach that understands how to prep vs. the McVay offense.

LAR 31 CAR 24

CHI +1.5

Sure, the Bears have been winning with unsustainable turnover and late-game luck, but sometimes teams just have seasons like that, and the magic bleeds into the playoffs for a game or two. It's just who the Bears are this season. The Packers are the team whose season ended when Parsons (and Wyatt) went down.

Walt doesn't trust Caleb Williams here, but I kinda do. Williams - who will be regarded as the NFC's best QB by this time next year - can go toe-to-toe with any QB. Jordan Love could easily be rusty coming off a concussion and a few weeks off.

Notes: Biggest mismatch in this game: J. Thuney/D. Dalman/J. Jackson vs. GB run defense. It's not even close. The Bears are 1st in rushing success rate. The Packers are last in rushing success rate allowed since losing Parsons and Wyatt. The Bears will run at will...The return of R. Odunze is huge, especially against a GB defense that struggles vs. boundary WRs and is now without Nate Hobbs..The return of do-everything CB Kyler Gordon should boost CHI's beleaguered defense.

CHI 24 GB 21<;/strong>

;

t;

2 0

	iEatCrayons • 26 Posts (21 ) • 2 month(s) 28 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Regarding CHI, I have similar view about CHI RUN. The weird thing is CHI finished in TOP 5 in 2025 for rushing attempts... past 3 games bottom 4, and also factoring Ben Johnson style, their OL, WR injuries, etc. CHI seem to move away from their run game. I dunno... I feel CHI will (hope) Run today and win. My Bets today CHI ML LAR HT/FT + CHI +6.5 Puka +89.5 Yds </p> > 1 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
2 month(s) 28 day(s) ago

Saturday Predictions

I'm still pissing in the wind when it comes to handicapping the AFC Wild Card games, but I think I have a decent read on the NFC side.

CAR +10.5

LAR 31 CAR 24

CHI +1.5

CHI 24 GB 21<;/strong>

;

t;

2 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
2 month(s) 28 day(s) ago - hide

Saturday Predictions

I'm still pissing in the wind when it comes to handicapping the AFC Wild Card games, but I think I have a decent read on the NFC side.

CAR +10.5

LAR 31 CAR 24

CHI +1.5

CHI 24 GB 21<;/strong>

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t;

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	Baird • 110 Posts (74 ) • 2 month(s) 28 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter - Great write-up I teased Jags on the opening +1.5 line to get +7.5 and that felt like a gift. Now that the Bears are +1.5 in a windy home game I feel the same way. Anything can happen but teasing CHI +7.5 is a big money play for me. GL 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 29 day(s) ago - hide
Since their Week 8 bye, the JAX defense has faced Geno Smith, Davis Mills, Justin Herbert, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Ward, Riley Leonard, Brady Cook, Bo Nix, Philip Rivers and Brandon Allen. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
2 month(s) 28 day(s) ago

@Billl2021

Hmmm. Allen's foot?

I'm not sold on the Bills or anything, but Allen is beast in the playoffs when healthy. And I like BUF's O-line/running game better than JAX's. My point with my original post about JAX was that their level of competition since their bye may have as much to do with their winning streak as Jakobi Meyers and Cole Van Lanen. Talk that they'll come out of the AFC seems a bit much, especially with all the drops at WR and Brian Thomas Jr. still MIA.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 29 day(s) ago - hide
Since their Week 8 bye, the JAX defense has faced Geno Smith, Davis Mills, Justin Herbert, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Ward, Riley Leonard, Brady Cook, Bo Nix, Philip Rivers and Brandon Allen. 0 0

	Billl2021 • 39 Posts (17 ) • 2 month(s) 28 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Money is coming in on the Jags. They have moved to -1.5 now 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 2 month(s) 29 day(s) ago - hide
Since their Week 8 bye, the JAX defense has faced Geno Smith, Davis Mills, Justin Herbert, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Ward, Riley Leonard, Brady Cook, Bo Nix, Philip Rivers and Brandon Allen. 0 0

	Billl2021 • 39 Posts (17 ) • 2 month(s) 29 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Jags are a solid home team and the Bills struggle on the road. Plus Bills OC Joe Bradley has been talking to teams about head coaching positions. I remember Ben Johson doing the same last year during the playoffs and the Lions got embarrased. 1 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
2 month(s) 29 day(s) ago

@WFDevTeam

Speaking of trends...C.J Stroud in the cold and PIT's MNF record are more reason to think the Steelers might win SU. Trends are flimsy, but unless HOU jumps on PIT early, PIT will only gain confidence as long as the game is close.

Arthur Smith has Rodgers getting rid of the ball and out to the RBs and TEs so quickly that it might mitigate the damage Anderson/Hunter can do.

The AFC is wide open and there needs to be a feel-good, playoff narrative...why not old man Rodgers making one last playoff run?

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
2 month(s) 29 day(s) ago

@DoctorJ

PIT's D-line is pretty good, too. They're just behind HOU in D-line WAR and are the only team with 4 players in PFF's top 30 pressure rankings. HOU's Anderson/Hunter are the best EDGE duo in the NFL, but Watt/Highsmith are up there, too. EDGE3 Herbig would start for some teams, Heyward is playing out of his mind right now and Harmon is coming on. I agree that the HOU DL will be a problem for PIT, but I could see the PIT front - finally healthy -dominating HOU's O-line. Could easily be a low-scoring slop-fest...a game script the Steelers love.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 3 month(s) 0 day(s) ago
Flu is apparently making its way through the NE locker room. Any Super Bowl predictions? 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 3 month(s) 0 day(s) ago
@WFDevTeam PHI's problems are nothing the return of Lane Johnson can't cure. (PHI 18-28 in games Johnson hasn't played.) I'm with IEatCrayons - PHI is rested and should TCB. With the loss of Tatum Bethune, the 'Niners are down to practice-squadders Eric Kendricks and Garret Wallow at LB. The injury-ravaged SF front seven will be dominated by the PHI O-line. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 3 month(s) 3 day(s) ago
@WFDevTeam The Darnell Washington injury is big. His blocking was crucial to the run game and the passing offense was leaning on him more by the week. But who knows...maybe Freiermuth emerges from exile with a big game. BAL by a FG feels exactly right, but I worry about Lamar. We keep waiting for the Lamar we all know to show up and it hasn't happened all year. Non-bet for me. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
3 month(s) 6 day(s) ago

NO/ATL

With the Falcons coming off a short week and a big, turnover-aided win, I agree that the Saints are the right side. My concern: Without Olave, how are the Saints going to score?

With Saints interior defenders Bresee and Shepherd trending OUT, there's a good chance Bijan and Allgeier will eat well. Who will the Saints lean on to keep up? Juwan Johnson? ATL is 3rd-best vs. tight ends. The ghost of Taysom Hill? Audric Estime? Practice-squadder who could be running into stacked boxes. I like Shough and he should perform well with OROY within reach, but expecting guys like Kevin Austin Jr. and Dante Pettis to rise to the occasion feels like a reach.

Side note: Bijan and other Falcons are talking about how they'd like to knock the Bucs out of the playoffs. Could ATL be more motivated than we think?

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 3 month(s) 11 day(s) ago
@iEatCrayons JAX O-line is banged up. I dunno...I can see the Colts keeping it close. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 3 month(s) 11 day(s) ago
@iEatCrayons Nice call. I forgot about Perryman. GL on JAX/IND. Eat up those Josh Downs props. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
3 month(s) 11 day(s) ago

@WFDevTeam

Yeah, there's a reason Vegas stays in business. Luckily, I had no interest in betting HOU/LAC. Post-Xmas funds, tight lines and all the backup QBs have me taking it easy this week.

Only large play is CAR +7, but apparently Tet McMillan woke up with the flu and is now questionable, so that may be a no-go. Some cabbage on CIN -7.5. All logic says CIN scores at will, but I can't shake the feeling Trey McBride gets three TDs and ARI finds the back door. My fantasy league team is in the championship with Burrow, Chase Brown and Chase starting, so I'm going all in on the Bengals. Small play on TEN as home dogs, too.

Sniffed around PIT -3 (win-and-in), but I think it's priced perfectly and can see CLE relishing the spoiler role. Garrett may go nuclear, while PIT is very banged up and without Metcalf. I don't like that CLE offense without Judkins though.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 3 month(s) 12 day(s) ago
@WFDevTeam I'm thinking the same. A lot is being said about Anderson/Hunter vs. that banged-up LAC O-line. More should be said about Mack/Tuipulotu vs. that banged-up HOU O-line. HOU's showing vs. the Raiders scares me. The Texans can be had vs. the run. If Ashton Jeanty can run all over HOU, so should Omarion Hampton. LAC 20 HOU 17 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
3 month(s) 12 day(s) ago

@iEatCrayons

Yeah, I'm probably overthinking this. The Jags are in a lather. Think I'm still reeling from the wallet-draining bet I made on SEA/IND, where I assumed Rivers would lay an egg. That loss was more about me underestimating the flat spot for SEA than anything Rivers did though.

It's looking like the Colts could be without Raimann along with Bortolini. This might be the week Rivers gives us the turnover/sack fest I anticipated vs. SEA. Rivers will need to get it out quick, so I expect Josh Downs to have a productive day in the slot. (Garbage time/no Jourdan Lewis)

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 3 month(s) 12 day(s) ago
@WFDevTeam Rivers has like ten kids. He obviously prefers life on hard mode. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 3 month(s) 13 day(s) ago
@iEatCrayons Was sniffing around JAX, but the injuries in their secondary have me hesitant. Rivers has been more competent than I anticipated. CIN feels like a clean play. There's always a chance Brissett/McBride go nuclear and we see a full-on shoot-out including the back door, but ARI's depth chart is just so decimated. The Cardinals may have already checked out. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
3 month(s) 13 day(s) ago

@iEatCrayons

CAR +7.5

Just such a lousy spot for SEA coming off that fluky W vs. LAR and the Niners on deck Week 18. Last time SEA played LAR, they only beat TEN by 6 the following week. CAR may be overrated and inconsistent, but they're better than the Titans. (Wins vs. LAR, GB, TB.) I feel like 5.5 - 6 should be the number here.

CAR is 9-4 ATS as home dogs under Canales, and 4-2 SU their last six at home. CAR is no great shakes defensively, but they match up well w/SEA, as CAR is 1st in the NFL vs. play action and 1st in play action yards allowed. SEA's passing game is predicated on play action (#1 in the NFL). Jaycee Horn - while inconsistent - is capable of keeping JS-N relatively under control.

Bryce Young has been inconsistent, but has stepped up in difficult matchups this season, especially late-game. He has 10 TDs to 2 INTs over his last 5 contests, and has an 8:1 TD-to-INT rate, 102.5 passer rating and 5-0 record vs. teams with top-10 pressure ratings this season.

SEA 24 CAR 20

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
3 month(s) 18 day(s) ago

TEN +3

The Raiders are destined to bat leadoff in the '26 NFL Draft, meaning both the Giants and Titans will win one of their remaining games. NYG will beat LV next week, while TEN will beat KC straight up today.

I know that TEN sucks, but KC is staggered right now. The O-line is in tatters, they have no running game, and the only viable passing targets for Minshew are (bust?) Xavier Worthy and the ghost of Travis Kelce. Key injuries are peppered along the KC defensive depth chart. TEN 20 KC 17

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 3 month(s) 21 day(s) ago
@iEatCrayons I'm with you. Rams are the right side, even with Adams OUT. (For what it's worth, Adams only had 1 catch for one yard last time these teams met.) SEA cannot establish the run. Cross is OUT. Darnold falls apart under pressure, while Stafford is gunning for MVP. The only hope for SEA is a completely dominant defensive performance. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 3 month(s) 21 day(s) ago
@Billl2021 The thing is, Sam never shows up in big games. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
3 month(s) 25 day(s) ago

Fav plays:

BAL/CIN U51.5

CHI -7.5 Proper Sanders implosion incoming. Thuney/Dalman/Jackson will do work against a CLE interior D struggling without Collins, and Graham hurting. Another big game from the CHI RBs.

JAX -12 "We quit" game from the battered Jets, while Jax is getting into a lather. Blowout.

BUF -1 Josh Allen - looking to make his MVP case - in a snow game. Revenge for BUF as Bosa and Rosseau take turns on Vederian Lowe.

DET +6 Just a hunch that this is a FG game. DET's battered secondary is concerning, but we've seen their backups step up before. Goff indoors and Gibbs on a rug allow Lions to keep up.

SEA -13.5 Betting that Indy's Philip Rivers Hail Mary is a disaster from the jump. Four TOs from Rivers sounds about right.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
3 month(s) 25 day(s) ago

@Baird

I'm going heavy on SEA. For me, it's all about fading Rivers. I'm not gonna wait to see how he fares when all logic points toward a disaster right from the jump. Gonna get out ahead of it. If I'm wrong on Rivers, then so be it. But I don't think I will be.

SEA definitely has one eye toward the Rams, so I'd lay off if Riley Leonard was starting. At least he's functional and can do some things with his wheels. Rivers is just a sitting duck vs. that swarming SEA front seven. I'm with Walt - to expect anything but disaster for Rivers is fairy tale land.

Not too worried about Taylor vs. an elite SEA run D that recently folded Jarran Reed back into the mix. Taylor has faded since Indy's problems at QB began anyway.

For what it's worth, SEA is 10-3 ATS, including 3-1 ATS in games I deemed "flat" spots. MacDonald has them playing consistent ball. That said, I'm on the Rams -1 on TNF. LA has SEA's number.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 3 month(s) 26 day(s) ago
My Jets will trade for Mac Jones or Kyler Murray or something. A move with a predictably bad outcome is what they do at QB. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
3 month(s) 26 day(s) ago

@Baird

I feel confident that SEA will blow out IND. Rivers is starting, which is comically desperate. Coming out of a five-year retirement, he gets to face the best D in the NFL in a potential monsoon and without RT Braden Smith. There may be so many IND turnovers, SEA may cover even if not fully focused. I just have visions of that SEA D running fumbles and INTs into the EZ throughout the game.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 3 month(s) 27 day(s) ago
@DoctorJ Counterpoint: 1 to 3 inches of snow and 21 mph winds in the forecast. Josh Allen is reliably beastly in snow games. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 4 month(s) 7 day(s) ago - hide
Week 14: The Cowboys and Texans are going to win SU. 0 1

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 4 month(s) 4 day(s) ago
@Billl2021 Maybe lol. But it'll be difficult for Mahomes without 3/5 of his O-line there to keep Hunter and Anderson off his ass. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 4 month(s) 7 day(s) ago
Week 14: The Cowboys and Texans are going to win SU. 0 1

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 4 month(s) 7 day(s) ago - hide
Week 14: The Cowboys and Texans are going to win SU. 0 1

	Billl2021 • 39 Posts (17 ) • 4 month(s) 4 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter So Chiefs it is? 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 4 month(s) 4 day(s) ago
For CHI/GB, there should be mention of Devonte Wyatt being OUT. Huge blow to the GB D-line. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 4 month(s) 7 day(s) ago
I don't think we can assume that the Chiefs have an on switch this season. There's been no evidence of it and we're in the stretch run. It's hard to justify ranking KC ahead of NE, even with the Will Campbell injury. Will you bump the Texans ahead of the Chiefs after HOU beats KC? 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 4 month(s) 8 day(s) ago - hide
Why the sudden fall to late-1st for Fano? 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 4 month(s) 7 day(s) ago
@WFDevTeam Interesting. Thanks. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 4 month(s) 8 day(s) ago - hide
Why the sudden fall to late-1st for Fano? 0 0

	WFDevTeam • 139 Posts (30 ) • 4 month(s) 7 day(s) ago wfdevteam
@Mr. Bitter He had a Hot Press about it here. Scouts have been disappointed 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 4 month(s) 9 day(s) ago
TEN +6, NYJ +3, HOU +3 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 4 month(s) 14 day(s) ago
Matt Milano is toast. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
4 month(s) 16 day(s) ago

Early Games:

PIT +3 CHI's back seven is in shambles. Not a good matchup for PIT's TE-heavy attack. PIT tightens up around Rudolph and wins SU.

BAL -13.5 Fading the Jets for a while. Lamar's DNP on Wednesday was apparently a maintenance day, so I'm not too worried about him.

DET -13.5 Kinda worried about no LaPorta and a look ahead to GB on Turkey Day for the Lions, but I can't side with Winston w/no weapons.

NE -7.5 Getting blowout vibes in this one. The Pats want to bury the Bills in the AFC East.

TEN +12.5 Coming off the Rams and with Darnold revenge game vs. MIN on the horizon, I don't like this spot for SEA. TEN D controls the SEA run game while Ward kills clock w/short stuff to TEs and RBs vs. SEA's backup LBs. Titans lose but keep it close.

MIN +6.5 Divisional rivalry and must-win for MIN. I hate siding w/McCarthy, but the banged-up GB defense can be had.

IND +3.5 The Chiefs have to show me more. I'm (probably foolishly) assuming Danny Dimes ironed out those TO issues during Indy's BYE. Feels like a lotta Jonathan Taylor and a 3 point game.

Late games coming. Leaning DAL to beat PHI SU.

Happy hunting fellas.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
4 month(s) 16 day(s) ago - hide

Early Games:

PIT +3 CHI's back seven is in shambles. Not a good matchup for PIT's TE-heavy attack. PIT tightens up around Rudolph and wins SU.

BAL -13.5 Fading the Jets for a while. Lamar's DNP on Wednesday was apparently a maintenance day, so I'm not too worried about him.

DET -13.5 Kinda worried about no LaPorta and a look ahead to GB on Turkey Day for the Lions, but I can't side with Winston w/no weapons.

NE -7.5 Getting blowout vibes in this one. The Pats want to bury the Bills in the AFC East.

MIN +6.5 Divisional rivalry and must-win for MIN. I hate siding w/McCarthy, but the banged-up GB defense can be had.

IND +3.5 The Chiefs have to show me more. I'm (probably foolishly) assuming Danny Dimes ironed out those TO issues during Indy's BYE. Feels like a lotta Jonathan Taylor and a 3 point game.

Late games coming. Leaning DAL to beat PHI SU.

Happy hunting fellas.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
4 month(s) 16 day(s) ago

ARI +2.5 Like the home dog here. JAX is down some cornerstone players for this one and their O-line is abysmal.

CLE +3.5 Rock bottom game for the Raiders. Sanders isn't an NFL QB, but I'm guessing a healthy dose of Judkins and CLE's pronounced advantage in the trenches will be enough to hide him vs. the horrid Raiders. CLE SU. Myles Garrett gets 3+ sacks and Geno Smith commits more TOs than Sanders.

ATL +2 Wouldn't touch this game. Just taking the points.

DAL +3.5 Love the good vibes/shaky vibes dynamic here, along with divisional rivalry/must-win for DAL angles. Prescott is dialed in and the Cowboys can score with anybody, while I love the defensive facelift on the fly with Clowney, Williams and Wilson, along w/the return of Hooker and Overshown. I anticipate a legit Wild Card push for DAL. Cowboys by an Aubrey FG.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 4 month(s) 26 day(s) ago
@Billl2021 "I feel it is more they play down to their competition" Bingo. With their inconsistency and injuries quietly piling up on offense, GB is giving me FADE vibes for the next two weeks. ("Easy" game @ NYG followed by vs. MIN in a game where the Vikings could be in must-win mode.) 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
4 month(s) 26 day(s) ago

NE -13 Walt handicapped this one pretty thoroughly, and I'm going big on the Pats. Now that the Jets have dinged their draft positioning with that predictable, fluky win vs. CLE, they'll get their asses handed to them by NE. Without Garrett Wilson, this isn't a fair fight. But will NE be focused? In Vrabel I trust.

Expect another huge game from TreVeyon Henderson vs. NY's saloon-door D-line. Henderson is perfectly situated for a dominant three-game run vs. NYJ, CIN and NYG.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 4 month(s) 27 day(s) ago
"Matt Milano will snap out of his funk at some point" Sure about that? He's 31 and terminally injured. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 4 month(s) 28 day(s) ago
@42yardline Giants fans are spoiled rotten compared to us Jets fans. Our only comfort is watching SB III on Youtube. I'm interested to see how the Giants play for Kafka. I've always liked him as an assistant. Maybe NY has stumbled upon a decent HC. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
4 month(s) 28 day(s) ago

@Baird

The "Patriots haven't beaten anybody" angle felt too mainstream for me. They were yacking about it on ESPN. Vrabel probably put it up on the billboard.

But you're right - nine times out of ten the Bucs are the right side. That's why I didn't touch NE even though I could see them winning. I had a hunch Henderson would erupt. (Just a hunch, even in the face of the TB run D.) Thankfully, I put him in my fantasy lineup (Chase Brown-BYE) after he'd been languishing on my bench all season.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
5 month(s) 1 day(s) ago

@Baird

Beginning with the victory over MIA, I think BAL could win 8 straight. Lamar chews up and spits out the blitz, so I'm not worried about BAL scoring vs. MIN. I'm on BAL, but I'm concerned that the BAL D may not be able to pressure McCarthy off his spot. (His pressure/no pressure splits are miserable.) Hopefully underrated acquisition Dre'Mont Jones can hit the ground running in a BAL defense that he fits well. Jones was running hot bringing edge pressure for TEN before the trade.

You've got marbles with the TB pick. Good spot for TB, but all the offensive injuries have to catch up at some point. The running game has really suffered without Bucky Irving. I'm staying away from NE/TB.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
5 month(s) 2 day(s) ago

ATL +6 Do the Colts bounce back or has Danny Dimes turned back into a pumpkin? Which ATL team will show up? DeForest Buckner is OUT, but will ATL be able to take advantage with Bergeron and possibly Lindstrom OUT? Will Sauce Gardner be up to speed and able to control Drake London? Too many questions to bet this one, but my best guess is ATL covers but loses due to a crucial Penix mistake and/or a Zane Gonzalez missed FG or two, while IND stumbles into their BYE.

CAR -5.5 No, I don't think CAR is suddenly a legit NFC contender, but I'm leaning on an underrated, intangible angle in this matchup: The Panthers are establishing an identity, while the Saints aren't. NO has no plan beyond yanking two backup-quality QBs in and out of the lineup and trotting out the ghosts of Kamara, T. Hill, Jordan, etc., and expecting anything to change, while Canales has established CAR as a competitive, smashmouth team. This counts for something...enough for me to go light on CAR.

I think Dowdle's success will continue vs. NO. While the Saints have been okay overall vs. the run, they have given up the 5th-most explosive rushes in the NFL. Since becoming the starter, Dowdle is 1st in the NFL in explosive rushes.

CHI -4.5 I'm with Walt here. The NYG run defense - which is basically just Sexy Dexy and tumbleweeds - is dead last in EPA per rush, just as the CHI running game is getting into a full lather behind that revamped O-line. Bears with a methodical, comfortable win.

HOU +1 This pick hinges on the availability of Will Anderson Jr. (QUESTIONABLE), as Anderson/Hunter taking turns pinning their ears back vs. atrocious JAX LT Walker Little would wreck the Jags offense. Must-win for HOU, but I'm not trusting Davis Mills and no running game unless the defense is fully dominant. Anderson likely plays, meaning I'm likely to bet HOU light.

BUF -9.5 Classic trap game, but a) the Bills are still looking up at the Pats in the standings and b) the Dolphins are an auto-fade. Josh Allen game.

NYJ +2 Jets fan here to tell you how this will go down: Because this is exactly the type of game the Jets win to blow their chance at batting leadoff in the '26 Draft, rookie CB Azareye'h Thomas gets a pick-six in what will otherwise be the ugliest win this season. Vibes are good in Jersey for a few days, then the Jets get slobberknockered by NE next Thursday. Bank it. It's what the Jets do.

BAL -4 Have we forgotten what J.J. McCarthy looked like earlier this season? I haven't.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 5 month(s) 7 day(s) ago
@Baird This is shaping up to be the weekend of the backup RB. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
5 month(s) 16 day(s) ago - hide

ATL -7 NON-BET I don't trust Tua right now, but I don't trust an injured Penix, either. There might be a QB controversy slowly brewing in ATL and I'm tempted to get ahead of it, but MIA seems to have tapped out and has to be faded until they show some fight.

ATL is a better team at home and Bijan could make an MVP statement vs. MIA's saloon door run D, but ATL's overall inconsistency and Achane on a rug has me fearful of a back and forth game and a backdoor cover.

CHI +6.5 NON-BET BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.

A lot of things have to click in order for BAL to get out of their 1-5 hole, even against the 7th-easiest remaining schedule, and while they're getting reinforcements off their BYE, I'm not sure they'll just be able to flip the switch vs. a hot CHI team that may feel disrespected by this point spread. The BAL defense sucks right now without Madubuike, and he's not coming back.

BUF -7 NON-BET I've gone back n forth here. BUF's struggling D gets a few D-line depth pieces back for this one, but now DaQuan Jones and Taylor Rapp are OUT. CAR should be able to establish the run vs. BUF, but what if Josh Allen comes out hot and the Bills jump out to an early lead? I simply am not betting Dalton over Allen in this situation.

CIN -6.5 LOVE I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.

For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.

SF +2.5 LIKE This is a must-win for HOU...but so was their loss to SEA. Screw the net points...why should I assume that HOU will break out of their offensive funk when they have zero running game, their O-line is still sh*t, and Nico Collins is likely OUT? Why should I assume a finally-healthy CMC won't dominate?

CLE +7 NON-BET Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 5 month(s) 14 day(s) ago
@Baird Drake London OUT. I'm on MIA. 1 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
5 month(s) 16 day(s) ago

CHI +6.5 NON-BET BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.

CIN -6.5 LOVE I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.

For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.

CLE +7 NON-BET Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
5 month(s) 16 day(s) ago - hide

CHI +6.5 NON-BET BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.

CIN -6.5 LOVE I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.

For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.

CLE +7 NON-BET Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
5 month(s) 14 day(s) ago

@Karensman

I remember when this comment section was a gold mine of old head degenerate gamblers offering up angles aplenty. Not sure why they all bailed, but I would like to see that happen again. Lately it seems like it's me and Baird doing all the heavy lifting, with a few others only jumping in after the fact and piling on when I whiff. (Which happens often because that's the nature of this beast.) Any thoughts or angles you have are appreciated.

The metrics hate the Steelers tonight. Offensive and defensive EPA, success rate, EDP yards per play...it all comfortably favors the Packers. Individual matchups lean Packers too; Parsons vs PIT's OTs (3rd-lowest pass-blocking grade) with Rodgers only QB28 under pressure, Jordan Love top-3 in comp % between the numbers, vs. man coverage, and vs. the blitz (basically custom-built to dissect the PIT defensive scheme), etc.

But then there's Tomlin's 21-7-3 record as a home dog, which is hard to ignore - but I will. Probably somewhat foolishly, I've leaned less and less into trends over the years, preferring to focus on matchups, injuries, etc. The way I look at it, it's like "big deal - now Tomlin will be 21-8-3". GB is also 0-4 ATS as a road favorite this season. Now they'll be 1-4. I like GB. I also like CIN, so cue the media's unrealistic "Flacco will lead the Bengals past the Steelers and into the playoffs" narrative.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
5 month(s) 16 day(s) ago - hide

CHI +6.5 NON-BET BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.

CIN -6.5 LOVE I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.

For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.

CLE +7 NON-BET Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)

Karensman • 33 Posts (14

) •
5 month(s) 14 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter & Baird : I don't post very often and when I do post my pick tends to backfire. I also seldom bet GB games as I'm a died in the wool Bear fan and hate GB, BUT In my opinion Pitt. getting a field goal at home is an automatic bet. Tomlin's record as an underdog [ especially at home, highly motivated, and coming off a loss ] is impossible to ignore. With the Ravens struggles, and no other decent team in their division, the Steelers should cruise to the division title. I expect a close game and getting a field goal is huge [ although 3 1/2 would be better ] . Good luck with all the other games !

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 5 month(s) 15 day(s) ago
@Baird You've convinced me. That 'Niners defensive depth chart is looking pretty grim. Like the Lions, SF wears their ability to overcome injuries like a badge of honor - a factor I feel sometimes isn't fully baked into the line for SF and DET - but there comes a point where the hits are too much to overcome. If HOU's offense can't get right in this one... 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
5 month(s) 16 day(s) ago - hide

CHI +6.5 NON-BET BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.

CIN -6.5 LOVE I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.

For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.

CLE +7 NON-BET Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
5 month(s) 15 day(s) ago

@Baird

Yeah, just a hunch on MIA/ATL, and Cousins starting doesn't change anything. I feel like MIA keeps it close in this one, then gets thoroughly demolished by BAL in Week 9. I envision Achane and Bijan taking turns blasting off, and Waddle is way overdue for some numbers, assuming MIA is smart enough to work him in the slot and away from A.J. Terrell.

I might change my mind on CHI/BAL. The Bears are down to practice squad CBs. My main concerns are that Lamar isn't fully healthy, and that CHI has the weapons to keep up if the game becomes a race to 35, which is quite possible.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
5 month(s) 16 day(s) ago - hide

CHI +6.5 NON-BET BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.

CIN -6.5 LOVE I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.

For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.

CLE +7 NON-BET Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)

	Baird • 110 Posts (74 ) • 5 month(s) 15 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter - good to see you're off CLE. I like NE for the same reason I hit CLE last week... of the 4 sides I like their D vs Gabriel the best. Judkins has been carrying the team but not vs NE @ home (#3 run D @ 3.3 YPC). I like NE to win in a low scorer like 20-10, although it could get ugly and end up 27-3. Teasing NE -1 is the play 1 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
5 month(s) 16 day(s) ago - hide

CHI +6.5 NON-BET BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.

CIN -6.5 LOVE I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.

For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.

CLE +7 NON-BET Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)

Baird • 110 Posts (74

) •
5 month(s) 15 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter - I was going to hit Vegas tomorrow morning and go big on on teasers featuring ATL -1.5, but Im backing off. I have a gut feeling MIA makes it a game. Other than Diablo out, I really dont know why I have a bad feeling - especially since this is MIA's 2nd road game and they have BAL next on TNF. Bijan should ball out. IDK - I'm listening to whatever's giving me pause.

Good to see your seeing the same thing

I'm w you on Buf/Car too. I'm still going to hit small teasers on both sides, but feel like CAR has a small chance to win outright.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 5 month(s) 17 day(s) ago
@Billl2021 Your take was logical, but Dan Campbell's ability to overcome a rash of injuries is something that may need to be baked into handicapping the Lions going forward. Every coach uses the "next man up" cliche, but they take it seriously in Detroit. They did it last season, and now they're doing it with the secondary this season. It's nuts. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 5 month(s) 17 day(s) ago
And oh yeah - Sauce Gardner is likely OUT with a concussion. Another Ja'Marr Chase eruption incoming. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
5 month(s) 17 day(s) ago

@Baird

The CIN victory over PIT definitely felt like a springboard game. Maybe even kept Hendrickson in Cincy. I don't anticipate Flacco keeping it up and saving CIN's season, but there's no reason why they shouldn't TCB vs. my Jets. The Jets are a hot mess, and Tyrod Taylor might be playing hurt if he starts.

I know it's early, but Aaron Glenn already has a good coordinator/bad head coach vibe.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
5 month(s) 21 day(s) ago - hide

It's not hard to believe that CAR is vastly improved vs. the run. Derrick Brown.

The Jets are an auto-fade for me until Tyrod Taylor takes over under center. Rookie TE Mason Taylor is currently Fields' top receiving option. The Jets simply can't score points.

I agree that CAR isn't suddenly a playoff contender, but they should win this game. You're letting your resistance to the idea that CAR is improved cloud your judgement.

CAR returns Hubbard, Coker , J. Sanders, Moton, Corbett and Wharton this week. They are currently in a lather running the ball and stopping the run. That travels. CAR 27 NYJ 13

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
5 month(s) 17 day(s) ago

@Baird

Yeah, I don't anticipate a look ahead for BUF. Not when they're looking up at the Pats in the AFC East. Also - betting Dalton over Allen coming off a bye seems insane.

That 20+ TD stat for Allen is crazy. Guess that's why Gabe Davis is back in the fold lol.

Feels like CB2 has been a problem spot for BUF forever. Curious to see how Hairston looks once he's activated.

What's your take on Milano these days? I think Walt may be overstating his impact, as the injuries are piling up and age is creeping in. It's starting to feel like a Sean Lee-type situation where injuries caught up all at once and he was terminally QUESTIONABLE until having to hang em up.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
5 month(s) 21 day(s) ago

It's not hard to believe that CAR is vastly improved vs. the run. Derrick Brown.

The Jets are an auto-fade for me until Tyrod Taylor takes over under center. Rookie TE Mason Taylor is currently Fields' top receiving option. The Jets simply can't score points.

I agree that CAR isn't suddenly a playoff contender, but they should win this game. You're letting your resistance to the idea that CAR is improved cloud your judgement.

CAR returns Hubbard, Coker , J. Sanders, Moton, Corbett and Wharton this week. They are currently in a lather running the ball and stopping the run. That travels. CAR 27 NYJ 13

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
5 month(s) 21 day(s) ago - hide

It's not hard to believe that CAR is vastly improved vs. the run. Derrick Brown.

The Jets are an auto-fade for me until Tyrod Taylor takes over under center. Rookie TE Mason Taylor is currently Fields' top receiving option. The Jets simply can't score points.

I agree that CAR isn't suddenly a playoff contender, but they should win this game. You're letting your resistance to the idea that CAR is improved cloud your judgement.

CAR returns Hubbard, Coker , J. Sanders, Moton, Corbett and Wharton this week. They are currently in a lather running the ball and stopping the run. That travels. CAR 27 NYJ 13

Baird • 110 Posts (74

) •
5 month(s) 17 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter - Good call last week.

I agree on CAR's upswing and bet them to beat NY. I was ready to bet CAR win total under after they beat NJJ but now Im holding off. I like Dalton better than Young and CAR's D has been playing decent (JC Horn's 2 picks were both amazing) so I'm NOT betting the under win total... yet

With that said, Walt is on Milano being out to mess with BUF's run D but Ed Oliver was a big part as well.

Something not mentioned... Larry Ogunjobi is coming back after a 6-game PED suspension. That should help to cycle players vs run. If Hubbard was still out I'd like Dowdle to carry them, BUT this game means too much to a Bills team coming off a BYE and succeeding the div lead to NE.

I'm teasing BUF a little thinking they get close to 30 pts. I still like home field (3-0), Dalton & Dowdle so I'm treading lightly.

Side note: I just saw a graphic of Josh Allen 20+ yard passing TDs...

2020-23 = 27
2024-25 = 1

Shaq Thompson revenge game lol
McMillan vs White favors Panthers (White has been a big liability this year). I also like McMillan to get his 1st game over 100 yards. Count it!

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 5 month(s) 21 day(s) ago
It feels like you're forcing unworthy QBs in the top 10 just to have QBs in the top 10. Arvell Reese and Rueben Bain Jr. need to be in the top 10. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 5 month(s) 24 day(s) ago
@SadisticNobility Assuming the Ravens get Lamar Jackson and a handful of other key players back from injury following their bye, they're set up for a run that might put them on PIT's tail. BAL might come out of their post-bye CHI, MIA, MIN, CLE, NYJ, CIN, PIT, CIN schedule run 7-7 and in contention. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 5 month(s) 29 day(s) ago
I think you're leaning too hard into pressure numbers in the LAC/MIA matchup. MIA has faced some good O-lines this season, especially at OT. There's enough talent in MIA's EDGE unit (Chubb, J. Phillips, C. Robinson and Judon) to take advantage of LAC's current practice squad situation at OT. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 2 day(s) ago
@Walt You're going to grow old waiting for Matt Milano to play at 100%. Might be washed. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
6 month(s) 6 day(s) ago

@Baird

If the Ravens were playing a team with a functional passing game, I wouldn't touch them given all the injuries in the secondary. But HOU hasn't been able to throw the ball for a while.

I still believe the Ravens are an elite team that will round into form as they get healthier, so I wanna get out ahead of it. BAL could really get into a lather Weeks 8 through 14 (lotta cupcakes) and I'm gonna bet a small wager that tomorrow's game will be an early springboard into that. Kinda my contrarian pick of the week.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 8 day(s) ago - hide
"...the Rams may not be totally focused against the 49ers, given how many backups San Francisco will be utilizing" McVay-coached team...divisional rivalry for first place...c'mon, Walt. 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 6 day(s) ago
@Baird Kyle Shanahan has to be frontrunner for NFL Coach of the Year, but the Rams are better than the 'Niners and should have won that game. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 8 day(s) ago
"...the Rams may not be totally focused against the 49ers, given how many backups San Francisco will be utilizing" McVay-coached team...divisional rivalry for first place...c'mon, Walt. 1 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
6 month(s) 6 day(s) ago

@Baird

MIN will be down 3/5 of their O-line and their backup center. Now I really don't trust Wentz. Wentz behind a practice squad O-line vs. that CLE defensive front feels like an INT party waiting to happen.

One thing I will give Gabriel - he's always been very safe with the ball. As you said, safe dink-and-dunk action and a dominant defensive showing could carry the day for CLE, especially in a game where TOs will be crucial.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 8 day(s) ago - hide
"...the Rams may not be totally focused against the 49ers, given how many backups San Francisco will be utilizing" McVay-coached team...divisional rivalry for first place...c'mon, Walt. 1 0

	Baird • 110 Posts (74 ) • 6 month(s) 6 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter That game was hard to watch. The 1st quarter QB sneak while Rams d-line talks about what they are doing after the game & quick passing TD to Tonges wide open in red zone. Fumble, drop, fumble, missed extra point, missed FG - jeez I hate to lose money, but gladly stand by my 5.75U + 5.75U Rams bets. They should have covered -2.5 1 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
6 month(s) 8 day(s) ago

@Baird

Out of curiosity, why are you out on HOU/BAL? I've been sniffing around BAL as the media is currently driving nails into their coffin. I have a hunch that - even with the horrifying injury list - Harbaugh will rally the remaining troops, lean on Derrick Henry (HOU susceptible vs. the run) and find a way to cover/maybe win. My biggest concern with BAL is the season-ending injury to Madubuike, but if the rest of the team gets healthy and DeCosta swings a trade for a high-quality DT (Jeffery Simmons?), I still like BAL in the AFC North.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
6 month(s) 8 day(s) ago

@Baird

I appreciate the fine tooth comb treatment for CLE/MIN. Non-bet for me, as I don't trust Wentz, yet wonder how long the CLE defense will be happy with doing the heavy lifting while the offense stagnates around a revolving door of bad QBs. (As a pretty dedicated draftnik, I'm here to tell you Gabriel ain't it.) We've seen even the best of defenses eventually tap out in such situations.

I wouldn't count on the Cam Robinson angle. Washed journeyman who should only be shoring up practice squads.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 8 day(s) ago
@Baird Doug Williams vs. Jim Zorn! 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
6 month(s) 14 day(s) ago

LOVE

DET -10 To control Myles Garrett, Sewell and Decker is about the best OT duo you could ask for, and even the best of defenses eventually tap out when there's no support from the offense. CLE's win vs. GB will be a blip on the radar of another lost season that will result in the (unfair) firing of Stefanski.

For DET, Morton's offense is in a lather, while the defense should be able to contain Judkins. I just don't see an "on switch" for the CLE attack in this spot. Aidan Hutchinson vs. a CLE 3rd-string RT called "KT Leveston" and LT Cornelius Lucas reeks of a game-wrecking situation. I anticipate double-digit DET wins vs. CLE and Week 5 vs. CIN.

t;LIKEt;

MIN -2.5 Vibes are good in MIN. Prepare for louder "should Wentz remain the starter" chatter following this one. This is what Kevin O'Connell does, and the Steelers have been far more lucky than good this season.

I'm concerned that D.K. Metcalf may be able to light up MIN's suspect secondary, but given that Aaron Rodgers was 30th in QBR and 33rd in YPA vs. the blitz in '24, I doubt the Flores defense will allow the immobile Rodgers the time to locate Metcalf.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 14 day(s) ago
Rueben Bain Jr. at 1.17? 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 16 day(s) ago
Mateer is intriguing, but "generational" may be getting carried away. 3 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 16 day(s) ago - hide
Mateer is intriguing, but "generational" may be getting carried away. 3 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 16 day(s) ago
Watch out for Arkansas' Taylen Green. Cam Newton-type upside and could emerge as QB1. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 17 day(s) ago
@Billl2021 To be fair, BAL was without an elite DT (Madubuike) and Van Noy. Replay the game with those two healthy and I doubt DET is ripping off all those 10 yard + runs. But yeah, DET came to play and probably would have won regardless, especially now that Derrick Henry is Mr. Butterfingers. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 17 day(s) ago
@42yardline The old Costanza method. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 19 day(s) ago
WEEK 3 Early Games ATS: ATL, MIN, GB, HOU, IND, LAR, LV, TB, NE Even the best of defenses eventually tap out when they're getting no support from their offense. GB 27, CLE 14 GLTA 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 20 day(s) ago
@Jasonwbantle Wentz and Mason are probably upgrades from McCarthy and Aaron Jones. Darrisaw may play. Meanwhile, CIN will likely be without Shemar Stewart, Cam Taylor-Britt and D.J. Turner. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 20 day(s) ago
The Chargers feel different this season. Tougher. Meanwhile, Bo Nix has sophomore slump written all over him. The Chargers will win SU and ATS despite the injuries. Jim Harbaugh COTY? 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 20 day(s) ago
@Jasonwbantle CIN might be without Cam Taylor-Britt, D.J. Turner and Shemar Stewart. For MIN, Wentz and Mason might be upgrades from McCarthy and Aaron Jones, but now C Kelly and LT are OUT. MIN could be down to their 3rd string LT vs. Hendrickson. Tough game to call. Couple of beat-up teams.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 21 day(s) ago
Sellers has been a disappointment this season, and now he's QUESTIONABLE for a showcase game at Mizzu. Beginning to wonder if someone like Dante Moore, Fernando Mendoza or Sawyer Robertson will emerge as QB2/3 instead of Sellers. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 24 day(s) ago
The Falcons are underrated. Their biggest weaknesses from last season (pass rush, secondary) look much improved. Even Kyle Pitts is playing like he gives a crap. As long as Penix is an efficient point guard, there is ample explosiveness on offense for ATL to hang tough with anyone. 0 1

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 26 day(s) ago
@Karensman Bone. Not white...bone. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 27 day(s) ago
@Baird Love those clean angles in your LV/WAS look ahead. I worry about WAS, too. Daniels is the real deal, but WAS is due some serious luck regression this year. (Which we may already be seeing with the injuries.) Also: While I get the idea of surrounding Daniels with a veteran cast during his rookie contract window, WAS's roster feels too old. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
6 month(s) 27 day(s) ago

ARI -6.5 I gave Bryce Young one week, and Walt is right - Bryce Young sucks. He has limitations that can't be overcome at the NFL level, and - like last season - I'm betting his poor performance will snowball. I expect the ARI D to get some TOs and Conner/Benson to take turns gashing the CAR D.

I kinda like the Cardinals this year. Yeah, they're probably looking at a 2-0 start vs. two of the worst teams in the league, but ARI's roster is talented and they could easily be 6-1 going into their BYE.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
6 month(s) 27 day(s) ago

NE +2.5 There's a better chance that Mike McDaniel will be DET's OC in '26 than MIA's HC, and everyone knows it. MIA is a mentally and physically soft team that may have already tapped out. For me, MIA is an AUTO FADE until I see reason for them not to be.

I have my question's about Drake Maye and worry about NE's secondary, but as long as the Pats employ TreVeyon Henderson as RB1 - I'm guessing they will - they should win SU.

NYG +6 If Russell Wilson's Week One performance rolls over to Week 2 - which it easily could behind that Andrew Thomasless O-line and "force-feed Malik Nabers" scheme - then the Dart Era might arrive before halftime. I try not to put too much stock into preseason, but preseason Dart looked like an immediate upgrade from Wilson, and could easily spark the Giants to (at least) a backdoor cover. I'm assuming a lot here, but no risk it, no biscuit.

Note: I don't trust Guyton and Steele vs. Carter and Burns.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
6 month(s) 27 day(s) ago

@Baird

Yeah, Carter's DROY chances look promising. The Dart era could begin as soon as this Sunday for the Giants, which may increase the likelihood that Thibodeaux gets traded, meaning even more snaps/opportunity for Carter.

I still think Malaki Starks is in a great position to rack up some big plays and narrow the lead, and I've got my eye on CIN LB Demetrius Knight Jr., who was flying around everywhere and super-productive Week One. Could be a Shaquille Leonard-type situation where Knight just puts up so many numbers that he forces the voters' hands.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 29 day(s) ago - hide
TEN doesn't have much of an edge rush, but they get interior pressure. The Rams could be without both starting guards and be forced to rely on Beaux Limmer and Justin Dedich to keep Jeffery Simmons off of Stafford. Could have something to do with the TEN love right now. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 27 day(s) ago
@Baird Verse is such a beast. With J.C. Latham OUT, Byron Young should get in on the sack fun too. TEN is going to ruin Cam Ward. Dotson is playing and Sweat is OUT for TEN. Should be a workmanlike win for the Rams unless they're looking ahead to PHI Week 3. Rams are well-coached, so I doubt that happens. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 29 day(s) ago
TEN doesn't have much of an edge rush, but they get interior pressure. The Rams could be without both starting guards and be forced to rely on Beaux Limmer and Justin Dedich to keep Jeffery Simmons off of Stafford. Could have something to do with the TEN love right now. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 6 month(s) 29 day(s) ago - hide
TEN doesn't have much of an edge rush, but they get interior pressure. The Rams could be without both starting guards and be forced to rely on Beaux Limmer and Justin Dedich to keep Jeffery Simmons off of Stafford. Could have something to do with the TEN love right now. 0 0

	Baird • 110 Posts (74 ) • 6 month(s) 27 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Limmer 27 pass (ouch!), but 89 run block grade As an Anaheim Rams fan, I'm obligated to to rebut w Verse (90) vs Moore Jr (26 pass block). 2, 3 or 4 sacks for Verse? 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 7 month(s) 0 day(s) ago
@WFDevTeam DFS Contest? 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 7 month(s) 3 day(s) ago
@Karensman The Gridiron Uniform Database constantly updates uniform matchups as uni announcements are released. Has all the historic uniforms, too. Fun little site. Why, oh why, won't the Lions wear those sweet silver pants?? GL Karensman 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 7 month(s) 3 day(s) ago
CAR will be wearing white jerseys. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
7 month(s) 3 day(s) ago

LARGE

SEA +1.5 McCaffrey is washed. Trent Williams may be too, and the rest of the O-line is mediocre save for RG Puni. Defensively, the days of Armstead, Buckner, Hargrove, Greenlaw and Hufanga are over; the depth chart is now Bosa, Warner and a bunch of question marks. The SF STs are putrid. Until SF is valued correctly, they're an auto-fade for me. SEA wins SU.

CIN -5.5 Narrative changer. CIN will jump out 14-0 before CLE knows what's happening. CLE might hang around a bit as Flacco attacks CIN's weak LBs and Ss with a healthy dose of Njoku, but CIN pulls away in the 2nd half behind Chase Brown and some Flacco TOs.

MODERATE

DET +2 Until GB proves they can beat the big boys, I gotta fade them vs. the big boys. Lost amid the Parsons talk is the fact that DET returns Hutchinson (along with about half their defensive starters). Toss into the mix a battered GB WR corps and QUESTIONABLE Nate Hobbs, and I like the fully healthy Lions to quiet the "new coordinators" talk with a divisional road win.

SMALL

TB -1 As long as Vea plays, the Bucs have the advantage in the trenches. I anticipate the ATL O-line without Dalman and McGrady will be more problematic than anticipated. (Penix's pressure/no pressure splits were alarming last year.) TB should be able to establish Bucky Irving vs. a weak ATL DT group. WR2 Darnell Mooney (3 TDs vs. TB last season) trending OUT doesn't help ATL's cause.

DEN -8.5 I'm not sure if we've seen TEN fully bottom out yet. (I'm not sold on Cam Ward.) When you're talking about the addition of LT Dan Moore like it's a good thing, you're f*cking low, man.

BAL -1 Running game and defense travels, especially early-season. I don't trust the BUF defense to contain MVP snub-motivated Lamar Jackson, who will toss 3 TDs and rush for one more.

NON-BET

NYG +6

IND -1

CAR +3.5

NE -2.5

NYJ +3

LAR -3

CHI +1

Happy hunting, gentlemen.rong><;/strong>;


<;p>

0 1

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
7 month(s) 4 day(s) ago

@Baird

Last thing: With the SF WR corps battered and disorganized, my biggest fear is that the Niners will just kill SEA with a steady diet of George Kittle.

I'm interested to see if the Seahawks employ Nick Emmanwori (my darkhorse to join Malaki Starks, Abdul Carter and draft crush Jahdae Barron in the DROY race) as something resembling a Kittle/McBride-eraser. Emmanwori's skill set is perfect for the job.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 7 month(s) 4 day(s) ago
@Baird And now Christian McCaffrey is QUESTIONABLE with a new calf injury. Predictable. The thing about athletes like McCaffrey (incredibly tightly wound as opposed to good, natural musculature) is that by the time they're 28, every muscle wants to detach. McCaffrey will never be the same and is approaching the cliff. As is Trent Williams. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 7 month(s) 4 day(s) ago
@Baird Jordan Elliott. Kalia Davis. Dee Winters. Upton Stout. Ji'Ayir Brown. Jason Pinnock. These are current STARTERS on the SF defensive depth chart. Also: If the game is close, the 49ers are at a disadvantage with their historically bad ST units. Ultra-inconsistent Jake Moody is somehow still the kicker, with washed Thomas Morstead at punter. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 7 month(s) 4 day(s) ago
@Baird RT Abraham Lucas isn't bad...he's just always injured. I'm assuming he's healthy for this game since SEA just gave him a 3-year/$46M contract extension on Thursday. If a healthy Lucas with some chip help from A.J. Barner (good blocking TE) keeps Bosa under control, who else on that SF D-line is ready to step up? 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
7 month(s) 5 day(s) ago

Be careful not to overuse the "hipster pick" thing.

I'm also not sold on Bryce Young and predict the Panthers will finish 3rd in the NFC South, but CAR seems to have some direction under Canales, so the idea of the Panthers winning a weak division isn't outlandish if I'm wrong about Young.

CAR has improved their offensive and defensive lines and bolstered the rushing attack over the last two seasons - which is usually a good formula for establishing long-term success. Teams could run at will vs. CAR last season, but the return of Derrick Brown along with FA and draft additions will likely change that. The Panthers might be a tough out.

A "hipster pick" would be the Dolphins to win 11 games or something.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
7 month(s) 6 day(s) ago

Notes:

SEA will win SU.

Agree on MIA. House of cards ready to collapse.

Wouldn't touch CLE even at +11.5. I think Walt is misreading this one. The Bengals have heard it all about their traditional slow starts and their piss-poor defense. It's why the starters were out there in preseason. I'm confident Burrow and company come storming out of the gates and Al Golden's new scheme rewrites the crappy CIN defense narrative for at least one week. Bengals in a blowout.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
7 month(s) 6 day(s) ago

@Baird

Waiting for official injury reports, weather, etc, then will set you chumps straight.

Until then, I couldn't agree with you more on SF/SEA.

The Niners are being valued as if they're the same team from two years ago. They're not.

Cheap Purdy and expensive Purdy are two different beasts, both from individual pressure and team-building standpoints.

The WR corps and O-line are problematic.

Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams might be washed.

Other than Bosa and Warner, the defense is nothing but question marks and unproven youngsters. (Right now, SEA has the better defense. As do LAR and ARI.)

There's profit in fading SF until folks catch up.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 7 month(s) 7 day(s) ago
@j_oliver_23 Good stuff. Also: Like everyone, I worry about the DET interior O-line, but it's not as if GB has a game-wrecking DT. With Kenny Clark traded, the GB interior DL may be as big of a question as the DET interior OL. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 7 month(s) 8 day(s) ago
@42yardline Their best decision since ditching those mid-2000s, CFL-looking uniforms. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 7 month(s) 9 day(s) ago
You've gotta get Nyck Harbor in the 1st round. Freak athlete that will melt brains at the Combine. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
7 month(s) 9 day(s) ago

@Sdoc135

I was thinking the same thing - especially with the possibility that A.J. Brown is rusty off that hamstring injury - but now it appears that Trevon Diggs will be OUT for DAL. That leaves Kaiir Elam as DAL's top outside CB. Not good. Still, the Cowboys have backdoor potential against a PHI defense that lost a lot of veteran leaders and is incorporating new, young parts. Probably a non-bet for me.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 7 month(s) 9 day(s) ago
Agree on the Lions. Last year was their year. To add to their list of issues: Still no viable EDGE threat opposite Hutchinson. Marcus Davenport is an injury waiting to happen. 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 7 month(s) 10 day(s) ago
Sniffing around the UNDER on that 47.5 for TB/ATL. Both defenses improved their edge-rush, while both teams' blindside protectors are OUT. No Godwin/McMillan, Otton is banged up, and Mooney could be rusty if he suits up for ATL. (Mooney killed TB with 3 TDs last season.) 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
7 month(s) 10 day(s) ago

DAL/PHI I'm worried about the backdoor cover, too. Not because the DAL offense is a juggernaut, but because the PHI defense is green after losing veteran leaders Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, Darius Slay, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Brandon Graham and Oren Burks.

Youngsters like Moro Ojomo, Jalyx Hunt, Kelee Ringo, Sydney Brown are talented, but are going from rotational pieces to starters. Jihaad Campbell, Azeez Ojulari, Josh Uche and Andrew Mukuba are nice additions, but may not be fully acclimated to Fangio's scheme. This defense will look different and there could be a vulnerable transition period.

Interested to see if the loss of Mekhi Becton dings the PHI rushing attack. Becton was a bulldozer for the Eagles last season. Tyler Steen has never graded well as a starter. Landon Dickerson is also banged up to start the season.

Underrated factor: PHI's greatest defensive strength (interior pressure/Jalen Carter) could be subdued a bit by DAL's strong interior O-line.

It also feels like DAL is usually at their best when the least is expected of them.

PHI 31 DAL 24

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
7 month(s) 12 day(s) ago

The Vikings are hard to read. Still, I think this list overvalues them.

O'Connell has a knack for extracting lemonade from lemons at QB, but those were veterans. McCarthy is green and didn't throw too many passes at Michigan. We'll see.

The MIN interior O-line improvements look good on paper, but the Vikes are relying on a rookie and two injury-plagued guys the Colts and other suitors had no interest in overpaying. The situation doesn't feel as dependable as the Thuney/Dalman upgrades to the CHI interior O-line.

I worry about the MIN run defense. After trading Harrison Phillips, there's no real NT to keep blockers off of Cashman and Pace.

The MIN secondary is worrisome. Jeff Okudah is a starter. Not good. And Harrison Smith could become a liability at any second.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 7 month(s) 12 day(s) ago
Cowboys will be drafting top-10 after that catastrophic trade. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 8 month(s) 5 day(s) ago
You say Round 14 is reserved for your final skill position player...a "super-high-upside long shot". Who are some guys that fit the description that you like? I'm keeping my eye on Woody Marks, 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 8 month(s) 8 day(s) ago
@Osmodiar Agree on Allar. Not a 1st round prospect. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
8 month(s) 8 day(s) ago

@Osmodiar

I think it depends on what the CLE front office/coaching staff looks like by draft day, and whether the Browns address the offensive supporting cast by then. As you mentioned in an earlier comment, the Browns interior O-line needs rebuilding. (I would add that LT is still a problem, as Dawand Jones should be at RT.)

If the Mannings are convinced that a new CLE brain trust has a plan, then why not the Browns for Arch? If Arch is the real deal, then he might embrace the idea of carving out his own legacy in CLE.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 8 month(s) 8 day(s) ago
@Osmodiar Not sure about that. NO is a directionless organization and the pressure of following in Archie's footsteps isn't necessarily a positive. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
8 month(s) 11 day(s) ago

@cb8518846

Out of curiosity, why do you think Tampa will be in play for Arch in '27? Jason Licht has given every indication that the Bucs will extend Mayfield. TB is a stable organization with solid foundational pieces and an explosive offense with a good, young O-line and should still be stacked with playmakers if the post-Godwin/Evans era comes sooner than expected. I'd say it's more likely that the '27 draft will have teams like MIA, CLE, TEN, SF, NO and maybe even DAL batting at the top of the order.

Your ARI call is interesting. They could easily move on from Kyler if he continues to under-perform and get hurt. Still, the Cards have a talented young roster. I can't see them bottoming out so quickly.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 8 month(s) 18 day(s) ago - hide
The Jets will win just enough games to fall out of range for a franchise QB. It's what they do. 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 8 month(s) 18 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter And just as I read that, I'm alerted that Justin Fields was carted off the Jets practice field with a leg injury.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 8 month(s) 18 day(s) ago
The Jets will win just enough games to fall out of range for a franchise QB. It's what they do. 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 8 month(s) 18 day(s) ago - hide
The Jets will win just enough games to fall out of range for a franchise QB. It's what they do. 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 8 month(s) 18 day(s) ago
@WFDevTeam Not sure there's a franchise QB in this crop anyway. (Assuming Arch doesn't declare.) Maybe Sellers. I don't see it with Nussmeier. Pedigree and nice arm, but he's light as a feather and throws mucho picks vs. better competition. The Jets QB in 2026 will be Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson. Book it. 1 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
8 month(s) 18 day(s) ago

@Charlie Campbell

Given the fact that Manning QBs have historically stayed until their Sr. years and Arch's relative inexperience, I can understand omitting Arch from this mock draft. I also believe that Sellers could emerge as the top prize (with Fernando Mendoza a darkhorse), as guys like Nussmeier (undersized/iffy decision-maker) and Klubnik (questionable arm) might be closer to Day 2 than top-of-the-draft prospects.

I personally think TEN remains the least-talented team in the NFL (they're STILL talking up Treylon Burks lol) and will again bat leadoff in the '26 Draft. (Cam Ward will be a bust, but TEN won't pull the plug after just one season.) If I'm right, CLE has to be the front-runner to move up to 1.01, regardless of Berry's history. Also of note: Chances are good that Berry will be unemployed by the time the '26 Draft rolls around. Any new regime's top priority will be ending the decades-long shit show at QB.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 8 month(s) 18 day(s) ago - hide
The Jets will win just enough games to fall out of range for a franchise QB. It's what they do. 1 0

	WFDevTeam • 139 Posts (30 ) • 8 month(s) 18 day(s) ago wfdevteam
@Mr. Bitter That is the kind of team assessment that resonates as inevitable truth. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 8 month(s) 21 day(s) ago
Those "easy" games against SEA, NO, TB, NYG, CLE and IND are on the road, where SF was 2-6 last season. McCaffrey and Trent Williams might be shot. The defense is nothing but question marks beyond Bosa and Warner. Not sure why everyone is assuming a bounceback year from SF. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
8 month(s) 21 day(s) ago

@Mr. Football

The Cowboys are a bit of a mess. Pickens isn't going to behave himself. He's a WR2 who thinks he's an alpha. He's a meltdown waiting to happen.

Another weak head coaching hire.

The Prescott contract is an albatross.

DAL has no running game and no run defense.

The secondary is a problem.

Tough schedule. The Cowboys could easily be 2-7 going into their bye.

DAL might finish last place in the NFC East.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
8 month(s) 21 day(s) ago

You are seriously underrating Miami's potential for suck this season. The Dolphins are a soft team whose offense opposing defenses have figured out. The secondary is atrocious and they are Charmin soft up the gut of the defense. Tua will have to throw often to keep up, and that means trouble behind a suspect O-line.

Everything hinges on Tua staying healthy, and all he's ever done is get hurt. Unfortunately, we all know that next concussion is coming. When it happens, it will be catastrophic and the team will undoubtedly tap out. There is no team discipline/accountability under McDaniel, and what few locker room leaders there were (Calais Campbell, Terron Armstead, Jonnu Smith, etc.) are gone. Importing shitheads like Zach Wilson, Darren Waller, Willie Gay Jr., etc., doesn't help. The Dolphins may be closer to bottoming out than making the playoffs.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 11 month(s) 18 day(s) ago
Aaaaand of course my Jets drafted the OT with the highest bust potential, IMO. Any idea on what position the Rams are targeting at 2.46? I'm thinking CB. Passing up Travis Hunter to draft Mason Graham top-5 is why the Browns are the Browns. Nice call on CIN/Shemar Stewart. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 11 month(s) 21 day(s) ago
@The Champ You know what...scratch that about Henderson. Jahmyr Gibbs is a tandem RB and he popped off at 1.12. There are always surprise 1st RD picks and explosive offensive weapons are at a premium. I like Henderson better than Hampton, and Feldman's article suggests that a lot of NFL decision-makers feel the same. I'm finding a spot for Henderson in the 1st RD. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 21 day(s) ago

If you have access to The Athletic, check out Bruce Feldman's latest article. It's a position-by-position scroll of quotes from NFL scouts and coordinators about prospects that he's heard throughout the pre-draft process. It's similar to the Bob McGinn series, but less mean-spirited and likely more legit. Feldman's 2024 edition was mostly spot on as far as speculation as to where the prospects might pop off.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 21 day(s) ago

@The Champ

For what it's worth, the Pewter Report - where Charlie Campbell used to work - like Donovan Ezeiruaka at 1.19 and Demetrius Knight or Jeffrey Bassa in RD 3 or 4 for the Bucs. They've been on Ezeiruaka all along and never seriously considered Jihaad Campbell there. They have historically been pretty sharp with TB's picks.

The UNDER on Egbuka's 29.0 O/U (-275) and OVER on the 2.5 total WRs drafted in the 1sr RD (-280) are getting juicier. I think Egbuka is a pretty safe 1st RD bet.

I have to agree on TreVeyon Henderson. I love Henderson and his fit in DEN, WAS or even with the Chargers, but he's always been a tandem RB, and a tandem RB is an unlikely 1st-rounder. I'm considering DL or CB for DEN now - Payton could easily like Day Two guys like Kaleb Johnson or D.J Giddens.

Be careful how high you slot Josh Simmons. I live in Columbus. Trust me - be careful.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 11 month(s) 21 day(s) ago
@Walt Vegas odds now have Jeanty over Graham as the favorite to go at #5. You may want to mention Jeanty as a possibility at that spot. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 11 month(s) 22 day(s) ago
@The Champ I think Loveland could easily pop off before Warren. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 22 day(s) ago

I'm currently banging out my contest mock and have prioritized pinpointing where the QB prospects are going to go and kinda working around that. Here's what I think I think so far:

Cam Ward/TEN - Mistake, but inevitable.

Shedeur Sanders/PIT - It's simple. Aaron Rodgers wants to start for a contender. PIT is the only realistic option left for him. Rodgers is literally waiting to see if PIT drafts Sanders or Dart, and if they do, he'll retire.

I don't care how bloated the OVER number on Sanders' 9.5 O/U gets or how much smoke there is that he'll tumble out of the 1st RD - if Penix and Nix went as high as they did in a much stronger draft, then Sanders is going in the 1st RD, with 1.21 his absolute floor.

Jaxson Dart/CLE - Whether it's a trade up from 2.33 or at 2.33, I think Dart will be CLE's target. Dart is this draft's QB analytics darling and no team emphasizes analytics like CLE. Dart is also going to be a bust; drafting QB busts is what the Browns do.

I'm getting the feeling that 1.06 could be a sneaky spot for Sanders. Geno Smith is approaching 35 and basically on a one-year deal. O'Connell is on the trading block. Brady has a history with the Sanders family. Sure, if Jeanty pops off at 1.05, the Raiders could pivot to a RT like Membou, Jalon Walker, maybe even Mykel Williams or Tet McMillan, but I think they would consider Sanders just as strongly. The Raiders have quietly been bringing in all the QBs for Top 30s and WOs, too.

The Rams might consider Dart, but it's impossible to say because they do their scouting in-season and meet with prospects virtually. I'm going to assume they ride with Stafford/Garoppolo one more year.

I think SEA will come out of Day Two with Will Howard or Tyler Shough.

If PIT doesn't get Sanders or Dart, then Rodgers signs with PIT and maybe the Steelers grab a Will Howard or Kyle McCord in the 3rd/4th RD.

Chris Ballard will ride with AR/Danny Dimes because he's a drunken idiot.

The Saints use 3.71 or 3.93 on Quinn Ewers.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 22 day(s) ago

I really like that ATL/Ersery pick. McGary is a much better run-blocker than pass-blocker, and he's now the blindside protector with the lefty under center. ATL has been scouting OTs heavily during the pre-draft process. I just wonder if Ersery makes it out of the top 40. He's in play for KC and PHI at the bottom of RD 1.

I think the Giants might like Milroe, too. There's the Bama connection, and while the Giants aren't winning the SB with that Wilson/Winston QB room, it's the kinda QB situation that suggests a project rookie QB that might need a redshirt season. That seems to point more toward Milroe than Sanders/Dart. Milroe's raw, rushing threat/bazooka-but-inaccurate arm skill set has parallels to early Josh Allen, who Daboll was instrumental in refining in BUF.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 22 day(s) ago

@pinballer3

I did this exercise to break out of the media regurgitation/groupthink rut that you mentioned. Every year around this time it's the same: All the legitimate information that can be gathered has been gathered, so all that's left for the media is rumor, speculation and flat-out disinformation that gets repeated so often that everyone just kinda accepts it, leading to the top 6 to 8 picks in every mock draft looking exactly the same. And every year, the actual draft looks nothing like the consensus and everybody gets like six to nine 1st RD picks right. I don't want to do that this year. "1. Ward 2. Hunter 3. Carter 4. Campbell 5. Graham 6. Jeanty 7. Membou 8. Walker" just isn't how it's going to go down. So I decided to tune out the media stuff until the eve of the draft and focus on going back to the tape, team needs and where the value pockets are for those needs. Because that's exactly what NFL decision-makers are doing right now.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 22 day(s) ago

@pinballer3

Banks' current 13.5 O/U is poised to drop. The UNDER is getting hammered. I'm not surprised at all. On tape, he's the cleanest LT prospect in the draft. I never understood why he ever dropped outside of the top-10 in mocks. Maybe prospect fatigue...I dunno. He's just so good, clean and consistent that it's boring. I think he's in play for the Jets at 1.07 and wouldn't be shocked if the Pats just picked him over T-Rex at 1.04.

Membou at LT is pure projection. I mean, he might be able to, but I see no evidence of it on tape. He plays like a guard. That would be a risky pick for SF if Membou slides.

Campbell plays so upright. I don't see him at guard. He'll lose the leverage game in there. I doubt he gets out of the top-10 though.

I was on the SF/future LT at 1.11 train for a while, but I'm off it now. Just really think that the 49ers can't afford to f*ck around. They absolutely have to address the DL early and often in this draft. Bosa is all alone. You put that DL out there against the Rams OL, and Stafford eats that defense alive.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 11 month(s) 22 day(s) ago
@The Champ I mean, if we are going to assume that the new JAX regime is going to just sweep out unproven recent 2nd-rounders drafted by the former regime, then why is nobody talking about JAX trading down and drafting Tyler Warren to replace Brenton Strange? It's not like Trevor Lawrence doesn't need all the help he can get. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 22 day(s) ago

JAX/Graham is also iffy because Graham is a 3T, not a nose. The Jaguars already have Maason Smith and Arik Armstead at 3T. Sure, Smith was drafted by the former regime, but that was a 2nd RD investment and he's only 22. How do we know for sure that the new Jags coaching staff doesn't like his potential? And it's not like Armstead is a bum. He was miscast as an EDGE last season and will be better back at his natural spot. It's also a nearly $20M dead cap hit to release him, so he's probably not going anywhere soon.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 22 day(s) ago

@The Champ

The 1.05 JAX/Graham chalk has always been kinda iffy to me. He's good, but not that good. When I watch the tape of a DT prospect projected to go top five, I expect to see a Suh/Quinnen Williams-type that is consistently pressing the iOL into the QBs lap or on the QB's ass. Graham is not that guy. He's a scrappy, assignment-sure technician that fits the run and creates piles at the LOS, but when you watch the tape, it's Kenneth Grant right next to him that is actually splitting double times and puncturing the backfield more times than not.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 11 month(s) 23 day(s) ago
I like your trade ideas. If Carter somehow slips a bit or if JAX passes on Graham I could see the 'Niners making a move up for one of them. The Giants packaging 2.34 and Thibodeaux to move up into the 1st RD for Sanders makes a lot of sense, too. Just so you know, there's actually a late round/UFA DE prospect from Mizzu in this draft named Johnny Walker Jr. lol 1 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 23 day(s) ago

@The Champ

Yeah, very little can be gleaned from the Combine, Pro Days, where every movement made and every word said has been mapped out by handlers and rehearsed ad nauseam. Teams have to get these QBs in their rooms, on the white board, throw concepts and verbiage at them, really get under the hood. It would be insane to invest in a QB without that baseline of information.

Agree with you on the 49ers. (My exercise really did set me straight in a few spots.) SF went from that Bosa/Buckner/Armstead/Jones wrecking crew to Bosa and practice squad guys. That's not gonna stand. Pick 1.11 simply has to be earmarked for D-line. Underrated factor: SF DL coach Kris Kocurek. Stewart, Williams and Nolen are upside prospects in need of refinement. Kocurek is arguably the best in the business.

Mason Graham is now 5.5 O/U -110 to the OVER. I'm convinced that CHI is moving up to 1.05 for Jeanty. When you look at how aggressively Poles knocked out the need at EDGE and revamped the O-line during free agency...the two high 2nd rounders...it all points toward a bold Day One move up the board.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 11 month(s) 23 day(s) ago
@The Champ Hopefully Ballard sobers up and comes to his senses. Indy could be dangerous with Sanders under center. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 25 day(s) ago

@42yardline

I just don't believe Ward is that much better than Sanders. Neither are transcendent talents, so their NFL success could easily hinge on what kind of situation they're drafted into.

TEN is drafting Ward to start immediately...in an offense where Calvin Ridley is the only viable target and Dan freakin' Moore is considered an upgrade for the O-line. Beyond the excellent Sweat/Simmons DT duo, TEN's defense is swiss cheese. If Ward was a lift-all-boats-level QB prospect like Manning/Luck, that would be fine...but he's not. He's not even close. The Titans are setting Ward up to fail.

Now let's say Sanders slides and gets drafted by the Rams. In that system, with that supporting cast and the luxury of learning under McVay and behind Stafford for a stretch, I'd be willing to bet mucho cabbage that Sanders would have a more successful career than Ward.

As for why I think the Jets should go QB but TEN shouldn't - that's easy. It's because Travis Hunter isn't an alternative for the Jets. Hunter is going to be a truly generational superstar.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 26 day(s) ago - hide

Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.

The Champ • 148 Posts (31

) •
11 month(s) 25 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter Yeah,I never really saw Jeanty dropping to, say, 10. Just too elite of a prospect in a draft without any blue-chippers apart from Hunter and Carter. You were pounding the table for Jeanty to go as high as 4th overall, and while I don't see that (they just really seem committed to fixing their God-awful OL), I wouldn't be shocked in the least if he goes 5th overall. Perhaps the Jags just take him for themselves, if they think there's very little difference between Graham and the DT's that could be there in the early 2nd. Or, perhaps more likely, the Jags are willing to move down and a team comes up to take Jeanty, sniping him away from the Raiders. The Bears obviously come to mind, given that they have two early 2nd Round picks. The other could be Denver, though they'd have to give up a lot more than Chicago would.

As for Milroe, sure, I can't say it would surprise me if Pittsburgh took him at 21. It seems like he's not going to drop below either the Browns or Giants in the early 2nd, so who knows. But he's nowhere near pro ready, like, NOWHERE NEAR. So that would mean you run the risk of Mason Rudolph starting for you all year if Rodgers doesn't come. For that reason, I do think they would be more likely to draft Sanders or Dart, if available. (And I think at least one of them will be.)

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 26 day(s) ago

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 26 day(s) ago - hide

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 11 month(s) 25 day(s) ago
Also: You probably already know, but Ashton Jeanty's draft position O/U went from 9.5 to 6.5 today, still juiced to the UNDER. Mason Graham - whose 5.5 number was like U -250 a week ago - is now EVEN at 5.5. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 26 day(s) ago - hide

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 11 month(s) 25 day(s) ago
@The Champ Think there's any chance the Steelers shock the world and stick-n-pick Milroe? 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 26 day(s) ago - hide

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

The Champ • 148 Posts (31

) •
11 month(s) 25 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter I don't think the Saints are going to go with a QB at 9. If they weren't going to with Carr thought to play the season, if he doesn't now, why would that change anything? They'd only take a guy if they loved them, and at 9, I don't see them liking Dart more than any non-QB. Despite my thoughts that Loomis might really like Sanders because of his accuracy and processing skills, the fact is that they never met with him, and it would be unheard of to take a 1st Round QB that you never met with. It just doesn't work like that. The Steelers met with Dart (and Sanders) and they almost always draft a player they met with on a 30 visit, and with the Rodgers uncertainty, one of those guys is going to be a Steeler, most likely. If it's not Sanders and if he slips as far as, say, 24, that's a perfect trade up spot for the Browns to reunite him with Hunter, and it wouldn't even cost that much to trade up from 33 to 24. If Sanders goes 21st to the Steelers, then a team could trade into 24 for Dart (Browns or Giants, possibly, with the other team then looking at Milroe, perhaps). You could also see the Steelers try to trade up (15?) for one of Sanders/Dart.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 26 day(s) ago - hide

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 25 day(s) ago

@The Champ

Derek Carr is obviously trying to force his way out of New Orleans. I mean, 1.09 has to be a QB, right? (Rattler sucks.) Jeremiah and Albert Breer have both said that they're hearing teams flat-out don't like Sanders in the 1st RD. (Jeremiah literally said, "It's not a rumor, it's a fact".) Dart at 1.09?

I watched some Membou film along with Campbell and Banks. I'm not sure if he can play LT. That Combine-verified athleticism shows on tape, but really only when he's moving forward, getting out on the run to block - not in pass pro. It's more like watching a really nimble pulling guard than an OT. He makes sense for the Raiders and Jets as a plug-n-play RT, but so do Aireonte Ersery, Ozzy Trapilo and Emery Jones on Day Two. I wonder if Membou might slide a bit.

My issues with Dart go beyond the Kiffin-system stuff. I know it sounds weird, but I get that kinda privileged, Zach Wilson vibe from Dart. The kind of QB personality that doesn't get taken seriously in an NFL locker room and rubs guys the wrong way.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 26 day(s) ago - hide

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

	The Champ • 148 Posts (31 ) • 11 month(s) 25 day(s) ago
@The Champ Meant to say that Dart has a good-enough arm, rather than good. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 26 day(s) ago - hide

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

The Champ • 148 Posts (31

) •
11 month(s) 25 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter Oh, you're right about Banks. And the sense I have is that he's going to go pretty high. I have had him 11th to the 49ers for a while, and in looking at the intel I can gather, he seems to have a chance to go as high as 7th to the Jets, as they could reasonably prefer him to Membou. (New England just seems set on Campbell.) Hell, maybe even 6th to the Raiders if they pass on Jeanty. 6, 7, 9, and 10 could be possibilities for him as well; the Saints at 9, especially, seem to be a total wild card. I don't see him getting past the 49ers at 11, and certainly not past the Dolphins at 13. From what I can gather, the 49ers are looking hard at Banks (or Membou, if he slips) at OL, along with Stewart and Mykel Williams for DL. I'm guessing that Banks has priority for them.

As for Dart, I can understand why QB-needy teams like him. Despite playing a lot of college football, he doesn't turn 22 until May. He has a good arm along with good mobility, too. Yes, the offense he played in is probably a concern, given that what he was asked to do was limited. However, that doesn't necessarily mean that he can't process well or couldn't run a more pro-style offense. I like the match with the Steelers now because Rodgers is leaving them in the lurch, they can't think that Mason Rudolph is going to be their starter for the whole season (and hopefully not in Week 1, ha), and from what I gather, the Sanders meeting with them was terrible.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 26 day(s) ago - hide

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 26 day(s) ago

@The Champ

Yeah, I don't see it with Dart. (Then again, evaluating QBs isn't my strong suit...or the strong suit for some NFL decision-makers going by draft history.) But too many dialed-in guys are guaranteeing Dart goes in the 1st RD. Seems inevitable at this point.

Not buying the Tyler Shough stuff for a second, though. That's a 3rd-4th rounder.

I'm surprised at how down some experts are on Kelvin Banks. I've been going back to the film over the last few days just to kinda reset after absorbing so much media speculation over the last few weeks, and Banks' LT skill set is as good as any in this class. I like him better than Campbell, honestly. Campbell definitely does the job, but in a very upright, sort of lumbering fashion. Banks' footwork makes Campbell look stuck in the mud by comparison, and I see a lot more getting in that chest and guiding with Banks than with Campbell, who gets away with some catch-and-hug because his anchor is so strong. Just can't figure out why guys have Banks going in the late 1st. Banks' current O/U is 13.5 to the UNDER, but I'm still worried that I'm missing something.

Rewatched Shemar Stewart's film. A lot better than you would think. His motor runs hot. He could be a monster. I think he's gonna go higher than people think.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 26 day(s) ago - hide

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

The Champ • 148 Posts (31

) •
11 month(s) 26 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter Yeah, I thought his mock was strange for sure. I saw him on an Establish The Run podcast yesterday with Adam Levitan and Anthony Amico, and he kept saying that there's no difference between pick 5 and 40 this year. Look, while this year it seems like there are fewer true 1st Round grades on players, it's not THAT bad. Like, Mason Graham is not going at pick #40 lol.

I did like much of Amico's thought process. And after some further intel from the likes of he, Scott Smith, and Jeremiah, I'm going to make further changes to the mock today. Golden back at #12 over McMillan, for one. Dart back into the 1st Round, for another. Might move Barron up as well; just think he's too "safe" in a draft with fewer sure things.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 26 day(s) ago

Some thoughts a week out:

For my fellow draft prop odds watchers, am I the only one noticing some weirdness with Armand Membou? There's a lot of recent smoke that the Raiders will take Membou at 1.06 thanks to John Spytek's history of going hard and heavy on the trenches while at TB (including Wirfs, a similar prospect to Membou) and Dane Brugler's newest mock that pairs LV/Membou. Yet Membou's 6.5 O/U odds continue to bloat to the OVER and are currently at -400. If Membou makes a ton of sense for the Jets, then why doesn't he make a ton of sense for the Raiders? Or has Membou been overrated all along and is poised to slide?

Some predictions:

JAX will take Jeanty at 1.05. BPA. It's all about helping out Trevor Lawrence for the new regime. I get that Mason Graham is a tidy fit, but there should be good DT value available to JAX at 2.36. (Walter Nolen, Tyliek Williams, Alfred Collins, T.J. Sanders, maybe even Kenneth Grant or Derrick Harmon.)

Shemar Stewart goes top-10.

CAR opts for Mason Graham, Mykel Williams or Shemar Stewart over Jalon Walker, or trades down with a team looking to jump NO for a QB. Walker drops to the teens, perhaps to ARI to join Deone Bucannon, Isaiah Simmons and Zaven Collins in their line of 1st RD 'tweener busts.

If the Broncos go RB in the 1st RD, they'll opt for TreVeyon Henderson over Omarion Hampton. Darkhorse options for DEN: Walter Nolen and Derrick Harmon.

If Hampton slides to the Chiefs at 1.31, they'll take him.

The Colts will not draft a TE at 1.14. They'll draft Grey Zabel or Shedeur Sanders.

PHI will select Walter Nolen, Derrick Harmon, Mason Taylor or Nic Scourton.

The recent Tyler Shough buzz fizzles out as he slides to Day Three.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 11 month(s) 26 day(s) ago
@42yardline For the Jets, my approach to the draft would be completely different than how Mougey and Glenn will approach it because they appear to be committed to Justin Fields at QB. Fields greatly limits what you can do on offense and isn't going to lead us to the playoffs. So the answer to your question is Shedeur Sanders. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 26 day(s) ago

@42yardline

For the Jets, my approach to the draft would be completely different than how Mougey and Glenn will approach it because they appear to be committed to Justin Fields at QB. Fields greatly limits what you can do on offense and isn't going to lead us to the playoffs. So the answer to your question is Shedeur Sanders.

Sanders is over-hyped and not as toolsy as Fields, but Sanders has the accuracy and toughness that Fields lacks. New Jets OC Tanner Engstrand had success working with Jared Goff in DET, and Sanders has a very similar skill set to Goff. If the Jets can find a few upgrades at WR and TE, I think Sanders might work as Engstrand's point guard. Even if it's only like a 40% chance that Sanders pans out, it's better than going into the season knowing that Fields isn't going to take us anywhere.

I don't want Will Campbell. Been watching film on Campbell, Membou and Banks recently, and Campbell is stuck in the mud relative to the other two. Seriously, hop on YouTube and check out just five minutes of Campbell's NFLFilmRoom, then five minutes of Banks' NFLFilmRoom. It's night and day. Banks has much crisper footwork and consistently gets in the chest and guides, while Campbell is often off balance and resorts to a lot of hugging. I'm baffled as to why Campbell is the consensus at 1.04.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 11 month(s) 27 day(s) ago
@Mr. Football The Cowboys are trading up for Travis Hunter? 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 11 month(s) 27 day(s) ago
@The Champ For sure. Watts especially. Geno Stone is a cap casualty waiting to happen. Watts is going to be coveted by FS-needy teams looking to win now. After Malaki Starks, Watts is the only FS prospect ready to start. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 11 month(s) 28 day(s) ago - hide
Jalen Ramsey now joining Tyreek Hill on the trading block. Lost veteran leaders Armstead, Campbell and Holland. QB is one big hit away from retirement. The Grier/McDaniel contention window is shut. MIA has sneaky potential to be the worst team in the league this season. They should just tear it down. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 27 day(s) ago

@The Champ

If MIA goes CB, I'm guessing it would be Johnson over Barron. Barron's lack of length will likely keep him mostly in the slot in the NFL. MIA just re-signed slot CB Kader Kahou a few days ago, and while he's not great, he's the best corner MIA has assuming Ramsey gets traded. They'd have nothing at boundary CB.

Drafting Will Johnson almost makes too much sense for Grier. He gets weird when drafting corners (Cam Smith, Noah Igbinoghene, Cordrea Tankersley).

Beginning to wonder if Will Johnson could tumble. No forty at his workout yesterday, and was reportedly clocking 4.59ish during training. Straight-line speed is a serious issue.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 11 month(s) 28 day(s) ago
Jalen Ramsey now joining Tyreek Hill on the trading block. Lost veteran leaders Armstead, Campbell and Holland. QB is one big hit away from retirement. The Grier/McDaniel contention window is shut. MIA has sneaky potential to be the worst team in the league this season. They should just tear it down. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 11 month(s) 28 day(s) ago - hide
Jalen Ramsey now joining Tyreek Hill on the trading block. Lost veteran leaders Armstead, Campbell and Holland. QB is one big hit away from retirement. The Grier/McDaniel contention window is shut. MIA has sneaky potential to be the worst team in the league this season. They should just tear it down. 0 0

	The Champ • 148 Posts (31 ) • 11 month(s) 27 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter They should, but we both know that isn't happening because Grier (and McDaniel) don't have that kind of job security. I agree though, this year could be truly ugly for them, especially if Tua misses games again. I don't know how they pass on Will Johnson or Barron now. I'm hoping that Barron falls to my Rams at 26, however. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 28 day(s) ago

I love that WAS/Henderson pick. Daniels/Henderson together in the backfield would be terrifying.

Can't see Shemar Stewart slipping out of the 1st RD. The upside is just too immense. That's a Myles Garrett athletic profile. Stewart currently has very healthy Vegas odds to go in the 1st RD.

ATL-related question: The Falcons currently have Ruke Orhorhoro as the starting NT on their depth chart. Orhorhoro is a decent run-stopper that I've heard ATL is high on, but he's very slim for a 3-4 NT. He seems to be best suited for 3-4 DE, but I've heard nothing as far as ATL kicking the tires on pure NTs like Kenneth Grant and Tyliek Williams during the pre-draft process. It seems a clogger like Grant would free up ATL's bevy of undersized edge-rushers to get home to the QB and improve that 29th-ranked sacks-from-pressure rate. Do you think ATL is really satisfied with Orhorhoro at NT? They've only had potential 3-4 DEs (TJ Sanders, Omarr Norman-Lott) in for Top30 visits. Just seems odd.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 28 day(s) ago - hide

I love that WAS/Henderson pick. Daniels/Henderson together in the backfield would be terrifying.

Can't see Shemar Stewart slipping out of the 1st RD. The upside is just too immense. That's a Myles Garrett athletic profile. Stewart currently has very healthy Vegas odds to go in the 1st RD.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 27 day(s) ago

@coachcarlvice

I forgot that ATL traded up for Ruke. Oof.

Onyemata is 32 and would be a painless cap casualty, but your point stands. Ruke is the NT for better or for worse. That's crazy to me, but - like you said - ATL is kind of a mess. Drafting a local prospect in the 1st RD just to appease the fan base would also be crazy, but I could see them doing it.

For what it's worth, Stewart is currently at -2000 to be drafted in the 1st RD at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 28 day(s) ago - hide

I love that WAS/Henderson pick. Daniels/Henderson together in the backfield would be terrifying.

Can't see Shemar Stewart slipping out of the 1st RD. The upside is just too immense. That's a Myles Garrett athletic profile. Stewart currently has very healthy Vegas odds to go in the 1st RD.

coachcarlvice • 0 Posts (0) •
11 month(s) 28 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter
Stewart is an athletic freak but production is going to be a big issue with him. 3 years and 1.5 sacks per year with a lot of talent on that defensive line and many 1v1 matchups. At least with Garrett, he had 10.5, 12.5, and 8.5. Stewart fits the mold of a lot of bust candidates and is a very risky pick despite amazing physical traits.

I stopped thinking about what the Falcons are doing, I don't even think they know at this point. I agree that Grant would be an amazing pick but with Morgan Fox and David Onyemata locked into the 3-4 DE spots. Ruke's only path to playing time is at nose. He was awful last year but Raheem can't bench him. They traded up in the 2nd to take him over Newton, Fiske, and Sweat and that would be even more egg on their face. Their EDGE guys are weak at best. The media pressure here in ATL to take a UGA player and EDGE is immense after the Cousins botch and questionable front office practices. I look for the Falcons to try to smooth over the fanbase with Williams or Walker. Remember the Falcons only have 3 picks in the first 7 rounds. They have to get starters with all 3 because their cap situation is awful and they still have to extend Bijan and Drake.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 11 month(s) 28 day(s) ago
@42yardline Honestly, "Travis Hunter no matter what" is what the Titans should be saying. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
11 month(s) 28 day(s) ago

@42yardline

Revel is already 24 yet still raw, press-man boundary only and has had awful injury luck going back to H.S. I'm not convinced that he sneaks into the 1st RD like some mocks are predicting.

Will Johnson didn't run a forty at his workout for NFL scouts yesterday, and there are reports that he was clocking forty times in the high 4.5s during training. He could slide. He'd be a great fit opposite Benford in BUF's zone-heavy scheme.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
12 month(s) 3 day(s) ago - hide

This mock is air tight. It really is hard to argue with Vegas. Even the CHI/Warren match - which I don't think will happen - could be accurate in terms of prospect/pick number because 1.10 is easily a spot where a team like IND might move up for Warren.

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

Not that Gutekunst wouldn't grab Stewart and his RAS in a New York second - I just think Stewart comes off the board much earlier. We're talking about an EDGE prospect with the same athletic profile as Myles Garrett. Some team is going to bite on that upside early.

I just can't see Dart and his pop-gun, scheme specific arm in the AFC North - especially in PIT, where it still looks like it might be moon ball city. Milroe - as reachy as it feels - seems the fit there.

I think something weird will happen with the Giants at 1.03. Just a gut feeling. There are character whispers with Abdul Carter to go along with the injury red flags. Your CAR trade up makes a ton of sense, but I could also see a risk-averse, conservative organization like NY take Mason Graham. He's one of the safest picks in the draft and the Giants desperately need a 3T to complement Lawrence. First "shocker" pick? (Everybody in the universe has Graham locked in at 1.05, so two picks higher wouldn't be that shocking, IMO.)

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

The Browns are desperate for a QB and are the sucker organization that will move up for Ward. CLE sends 1.02, 2.33, 3.67, 3.94 and CB Craig Newsome II to TEN for 1.02 and 2.35. TEN drafts Hunter at 1.02, then trades into the 1st RD for Dart (who DOES fit Callahan's scheme). After the draft, TEN acquires Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins as a bridge.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 12 month(s) 0 day(s) ago
@The Champ That's the thing about the draft - the picks that ruin everyone's mocks are the ones that had zero smoke. (ATL/Penix) We get so caught up in filtering out worthwhile nuggets from the constant stream of pre-draft speculation that we forget to consider what's not being said. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
12 month(s) 3 day(s) ago

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
12 month(s) 3 day(s) ago - hide

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

The Champ • 148 Posts (31

) •
12 month(s) 0 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter Sanders could do what Tua is doing for Miami quite easily. The Dolphins are so scared of Tua taking another hard hit and being out for his career that they just throw everything as fast as possible. You're telling me Sanders couldn't execute that? I know that's just one team, but yeah, I feel like he can come in and play right away for someone. And despite speculation, I don't see the Saints full-on tanking. It's just not how they have operated, and there isn't a strong team in that division. Playing .500 football has given you a chance to win that division for 3-4 years in a row, and it just so happens that it's Tampa Bay that has pulled it off. If Loomis sees Drew Brees-lite, he's going to take him.

And I, too, wouldn't rule out Sanders to the Jets, I suppose. I will not predict it unless there's significant smoke for it, however.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
12 month(s) 3 day(s) ago - hide

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
12 month(s) 1 day(s) ago

@The Champ

100% agree on SEA, even after the whatever Drew Lock signing. Schneider is coming out of this draft with a developmental QB. With all that Day Two currency, the Seahawks should be able to easily work the board for their target QB, whether it's Sanders in the 1st, Shough or Howard later on, whatever. Sanders/SEA feels like a super-obvious match that everyone is willfully ignoring for some reason.

I've come around on Sanders a bit. He's obviously over-hyped, but when you ignore the noise, temper expectations and just concentrate on his on-field strengths, it's easy to see him thrive in a Shanahan-tree, rhythm/YAC system. Sanders is undeniably tough as hell, too. That's no small factor for a QB.

Another sneaky Sanders spot to watch out for is 1.07 and my Jets. I'm not buying the "we're all in on Justin Fields" stuff. He's freakin' Justin Fields. NY's new OC just came from DET and built a scoring machine around Jared Goff, whose game is comparable to Sanders'.

I'm completely baffled as to what CLE's plan is at QB. Flacco/Pickett reeks of TANK JOB, but you don't give Myles Garrett that bag if you're planning on tanking. I've (kinda) given up on the TEN/CLE/Ward trade thing, so now I have no idea what the Browns will do at QB. Maybe JAX trades up to 1.02 for Travis Hunter, then the Browns mega-reach for Dart at 1.05? Just no clue.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

Jahdae Barron and Matthew Golden in the 2nd RD is very unlikely. Arguably the top prospects at their respective (premium) positions.

Mike Green and Donovan Ezeiruaku in the 3rd RD?

Are you guys hearing something about Mike Green that we haven't heard? That flag must be blood red, because his traits/production/metrics profile is 1st RD all day.

Ezeiruaku's only "size limitation" is that he's barely sub-6'3". Great athlete with a solid base and the arm length/wingspan of a 6'5" guy. Deep bag of pass-rush tricks. Super bendy and ultra productive. Intelligent with pristine character. (Team unanimously voted him team captain.) Premium position. Top of the 2nd RD is his floor.

Emery Jones Jr. in the 1st RD is a Mr. Fantastic reach. Sushi raw. RT only. I don't get it.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
12 month(s) 1 day(s) ago

@petermwb

The info on Mike Green has been out there for a while now. I'm sure NFL teams vetted the situation months ago. (Except maybe the Bengals...they're so old-school and cheap I'm pretty sure Duke Tobin's draft prep is little more than a Lindy's Draft magazine and a pen.)

Green's current draft position O/U is 17.5 to the under. I'll be very surprised if he doesn't go in the 1st RD. Wouldn't be shocked if he went as high as 1.08 to the Panthers.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

Jahdae Barron and Matthew Golden in the 2nd RD is very unlikely. Arguably the top prospects at their respective (premium) positions.

Mike Green and Donovan Ezeiruaku in the 3rd RD?

Are you guys hearing something about Mike Green that we haven't heard? That flag must be blood red, because his traits/production/metrics profile is 1st RD all day.

Emery Jones Jr. in the 1st RD is a Mr. Fantastic reach. Sushi raw. RT only. I don't get it.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
12 month(s) 3 day(s) ago - hide

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

The Champ • 148 Posts (31

) •
12 month(s) 1 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter Just keep in mind that Dart has met with Pittsburgh on a top 30 and that Milroe hasn't. At least, not yet. Much more often than not, the Steelers have top 30's with their eventual 1st Round pick. So I'll be watching there to see if that changes. I don't see Dart's arm strength being a problem, personally, and it's certainly no worse than Pickett's arm, right? (I have other concerns with Dart, of course, but that's another story.)

Totally agree that Sanders' best landing spot would be the Rams. I think he is actually good and behind a good OL and great coach with good weapons around him, yeah, I think he would be very interesting there in 2026. They'd have to trade up for him, as I find it hard to believe that he would get past the Steelers at 21. I could see the Panthers at 8 being a trade-up spot for Sanders, to jump the Saints at 9. And here's a darkhorse candidate to take a QB: Seattle. Darnold's contract is effectively a 1-year deal if they want it to be, and John Schneider made public comments that pushed back on the notion that this year's QB class is underwhelming. After watching Atlanta take Penix last year after giving a QB a $100MM guarantee in free agency, I can't say that Seattle taking a QB would surprise me in the least.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

Jahdae Barron and Matthew Golden in the 2nd RD is very unlikely. Arguably the top prospects at their respective (premium) positions.

Mike Green and Donovan Ezeiruaku in the 3rd RD?

Are you guys hearing something about Mike Green that we haven't heard? That flag must be blood red, because his traits/production/metrics profile is 1st RD all day.

Emery Jones Jr. in the 1st RD is a Mr. Fantastic reach. Sushi raw. RT only. I don't get it.

	petermwb • 27 Posts (1 ) • 12 month(s) 1 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter i heard that mike green has sexual assult type problems. have no idea if that is real or just made up by some women somewhere, not good news just 2 weeks before the draft. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
12 month(s) 3 day(s) ago - hide

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
12 month(s) 2 day(s) ago

@The Champ

I just don't see Dart as a fit in PIT. His arm would not play well in AFC North weather or in a deep-passing scheme. Dart is a sunshine boy. I think Charlie Campbell had a blurb about how PIT doesn't value Dart as a 1st-rounder.

The Rams should have interest in Sanders or Dart. I just don't know if LA would move up for a QB given their lack of draft currency and needs in the secondary. It's tough to say what they'll do because Stafford's age calls for "win now" moves, yet Stafford's age also calls for locating an heir at QB.

For what it's worth, I think the Rams would be the best NFL fit for Shedeur Sanders. The way the OVER odds on Sanders' draft position O/U number keep bloating, a deep slide looks very possible.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
12 month(s) 3 day(s) ago - hide

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

The Champ • 148 Posts (31

) •
12 month(s) 2 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter Yes, Ward is not as good of a prospect as Daniels is. I was just trying to say that I'm sure the Titans hope that he has that type of impact, where even if they don't win right away, it's clear he's a franchise QB. Perhaps Drake Maye would have been the better comp as far as that goes, since we all think he can play despite the terrible surroundings he had last year. I do think it helps Ward that he is highly experienced, and the NFL just saw Bo Nix succeed with a similar resume.

MIN is an obvious trade-down team for sure. I like the 24.5 O/U number, and as he's -1000 to go in the 1st, I'd probably take the under there. He could certainly go to PIT at 21, a team could trade into 24 for him, and the Rams at 26 have been connected to him as well. (And the Rams could trade down for sure, given the lack of a 2nd rounder.) Washington is the other obvious trade-down team near the end of Round 1, without 3rd and 5th rounders.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
12 month(s) 3 day(s) ago - hide

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 12 month(s) 2 day(s) ago
I find it interesting that Jaxson Dart's draft position O/U is comfortably at 24.5, a bit to the under. That's MIN's pick, and almost definitely a trade down spot. None of the teams picking 25 through 32 need a QB, so that trade up for Dart would be coming from the top of the 2nd RD. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
12 month(s) 3 day(s) ago - hide

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
12 month(s) 2 day(s) ago

I know that you're just speculating on what Borgonzi might be thinking, but Ward is nowhere close to Daniels as a decision-maker or as an athlete. Should Ward maximize every ounce of potential he has, he's maybe Tony Romo. Ward's game features subtle escapability, various arm angles, the off-platform stuff...I think Borgonzi - coming from KC - might be squinting hard enough to see Patrick Mahomes.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
12 month(s) 3 day(s) ago - hide

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
12 month(s) 2 day(s) ago

@The Champ

Fair point. If the coaching staff can't coach to the strengths of the best players provided, then maybe they're just not a very good coaching staff.

Still, the notion that Ward is leaps and bounds better than any other QB in this crop is a fallacy. Sanders is likely above Ward on a few draft boards. Ward is like Sanders and Dart - a 2nd RD value inflated into the 1st RD due to the NFL's desperation for QBs. Ward just happened to have a super-clean pre-draft process and rode that helium all the way to #1 overall. For me, there is no way to justify taking Ward over Travis Hunter, no matter how desperate you are at QB. The Titans are almost guaranteeing that they'll be the NFL version of the Portland Trailblazers selecting Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan because Portland NEEDED a center.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
12 month(s) 3 day(s) ago - hide

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

The Champ • 148 Posts (31

) •
12 month(s) 2 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter I actually think that Sanders fits Callahan's scheme better than Ward does, too, but I think this is a Borgonzi pick. He probably has visions of a bigger Jayden Daniels in his head and doesn't care who the coach is and just wasn't willing to fire him after the one year. I'm guessing he'll be willing to fire him after this next season if it doesn't go well and if he doesn't show that he can adapt to whatever Ward does best. Perhaps similar to what the Patriots did with Maye and then firing an in-over-his-head Jerod Mayo. Maybe they figure, just get the franchise QB and don't worry about who the coach is, as he can pick his guy next year.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 12 month(s) 3 day(s) ago
As for Morrison - I think he'll be graded similarly to the Hairston/Amos/Revel/Thomas clump on most boards. Length and injury red flags are legit tie-breakers in such scenarios. A hip injury is especially problematic for a DB, where it's all about swivel. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
12 month(s) 3 day(s) ago

@42yardline

I think the Bills will go D-line with their first pick. BUF needs to get over that KC hump. They saw what the Eagles did to the KC offense. AFC contenders are going to copy that blueprint.

The Bills have got to get a young, Jordan Davis-type run-stopper and an EDGE that can contribute immediately as high-quality insurance for Bosa. (Preferably a bendy EDGE screamer to complement the power games of Rousseau, Bosa and Hoecht)

Kenneth Grant is exactly what they need. With two 2nd-rounders, maybe BUF trades up if Grant starts slipping?

Tyliek Williams could be this draft's consolation prize for run-stopper needy teams that miss out on Kenneth Grant. He wouldn't surprise me at 1.30.

Green, Donovan Ezeiruaku and James Pearce are all candidates to slip to BUF and would have to be considered.

I have a hunch the Bills will come out of the 2nd RD with Xavier Watts. He's the ball-hawking FS BUF needs and he's pro-ready.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

Jahdae Barron and Matthew Golden in the 2nd RD is very unlikely. Arguably the top prospects at their respective (premium) positions.

Mike Green and Donovan Ezeiruaku in the 3rd RD?

Are you guys hearing something about Mike Green that we haven't heard? That flag must be blood red, because his traits/production/metrics profile is 1st RD all day.

Emery Jones Jr. in the 1st RD is a Mr. Fantastic reach. Sushi raw. RT only. I don't get it.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
12 month(s) 3 day(s) ago

@42yardline

With Green, it's hard to say. The allegations are a few years old and no charges were ever filed. We're not privy to the information that NFL teams will unearth, so all I can go on is what I know...which is that the situations never escalated beyond allegations, charges were never filed, Green denies any wrongdoing and his coaches at Virginia and Marshall vouch for his character. As a pure prospect, Green is an easy 1st-rounder.

Teams look past character concerns and draft players in the 1st RD all the time. I mean, c'mon. Jameis Winston had more substantive rape allegations at FSU and was drafted first overall.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

Jahdae Barron and Matthew Golden in the 2nd RD is very unlikely. Arguably the top prospects at their respective (premium) positions.

Mike Green and Donovan Ezeiruaku in the 3rd RD?

Are you guys hearing something about Mike Green that we haven't heard? That flag must be blood red, because his traits/production/metrics profile is 1st RD all day.

Emery Jones Jr. in the 1st RD is a Mr. Fantastic reach. Sushi raw. RT only. I don't get it.

	42yardline • 58 Posts (19 ) • 12 month(s) 3 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Mike Green will not go round 1. Talented, but most of us know that players with big character concerns are extremely risky to take that early. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 12 month(s) 4 day(s) ago
Great mock. The Membou fall is ballsy. I like the DET/Scourton match. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Scourton sneaks into the late 1st. If the Jets pick Josh Simmons at 1.07 that may be the last straw for me as a Jets fan. Aaron Glenn recently talked about "establishing culture" in this draft...Simmons is not a "culture" pick. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 12 month(s) 4 day(s) ago - hide
Great mock. The Membou fall is ballsy. I like the DET/Scourton match. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Scourton sneaks into the late 1st. If the Jets pick Josh Simmons at 1.07 that may be the last straw for me as a Jets fan. Aaron Glenn recently talked about "establishing culture" in this draft...Simmons is not a "culture" pick. 0 0

	joshmango99 • 2 Posts (1 ) • 12 month(s) 4 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter I had not really considered the culture aspect for the Jets. My ideal scenario would be Graham making it to them. Otherwise, I might just have to keep reaching on Membou in the future... 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 12 month(s) 4 day(s) ago
@42yardline Hip injury/short arms 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide
Why have the Titans done nothing to address WR or CB this offseason? Could it be because this draft's WR1 and CB1 are the same guy? I've escaped the matrix, gentlemen. Tennessee is drafting Travis Hunter. 0 0

	42yardline • 58 Posts (19 ) • 12 month(s) 4 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Solid thinking, Bitter, but Ward will win this race by 10 lengths. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
Why have the Titans done nothing to address WR or CB this offseason? Could it be because this draft's WR1 and CB1 are the same guy? I've escaped the matrix, gentlemen. Tennessee is drafting Travis Hunter. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

Jahdae Barron would be an insane value at 1.29, IMO, but - as you said - he's more NB than boundary corner. A boundary is what WAS needs. WAS already has Sainristil, Igbinoghene, Quan Martin and Jonathan Jones to rotate through the nickel spot. Barron might be redundant.

That PHI/Alfred Collins match is one I haven't seen and I like it. It makes a lot of sense and feels like a PHI pick. I have Collins going to MIA in the 2nd RD and have a nagging sense that I slotted him too low.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

@NoHeroes94

I see some expert mocks that have the Niners taking a CB at 1.11. Baffling. They plainly have no idea how SF operates. A deep, talented D-line constantly fortified with premium investments has been the foundation of SF's success. There's no way on earth they don't address the D-line early and often in this draft. Remove Bosa, and that's a practice squad group.

I'm very intrigued by the idea of what Shemar Stewart could become under the tutelage of Kris Kocurek, but the 2nd RD is this draft's sweet spot for quality 4-3 base ends. Nobody like Kenneth Grant will be found in the 2nd RD.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

@The Champ

I'd be surprised if Egbuka doesn't go in the 1st RD. He's such a clean prospect.

Kyle Williams makes sense for TEN. They have a Top 30 visit scheduled with him. Maybe trade down from 2.35 and still get him. SEA has two 2nd-rounders and two 3rd-rounders. Maybe they move up to 2.35 for Donovan Jackson or Tyler Booker if they don't go O-line in the 1st RD.

It's a weak WR class. Those recent WR classes have spoiled us. Most of the Day Two prospects are WR3s or raw projects like Dont'e Thornton Jr. and Savion Williams. A solid slot like Williams or Noel is probably the best TEN can hope for.

Travis Hunter no matter what.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
@The Champ Yeah, the books have the total WRs selected in the 1st RD number at 2.5. Burden's going in the top half of the 2nd RD. In his defense, I think he was misused at Mizzu. Talent-wise, he's a tier above the Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel, Jack Bech clump, IMO. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

Current Vegas odds suggest a less than 4% chance that TEN drafts anyone other than Cam Ward at 1.01. I'm still going to stick with Travis Hunter right down to the wire. I honestly believe Hunter could be their guy. He's a truly special prospect. Ward is a highly-flawed, 2nd RD grade QB.

Not even a month ago, many were predicting a TEN/NYG trade. Others had TEN taking Abdul Carter or Hunter. What has changed? Is Cam Ward suddenly a lock at #1 just because of a meaningless Pro Day or a few patchwork O-line signings that TEN needed to make regardless of who's at QB in '25? Ward is only a near-lock because of what everyone is hearing. How do we know that what we're hearing isn't misdirection?

Ward just isn't a 1.01-level prospect. Ward is in the same tier as Shedeur Sanders, who everyone has tumbling down the draft board. None of it adds up.

I think TEN has been playing a game of chicken with the other QB-desperate top-10 teams from the get-go. "We're going to take Ward if you don't trade us the farm and come up and get him". The Raiders and Jets tapped out early. Schoen and Daboll went to Ward's pro day, then the Giants signed Russell Wilson the very next morning. The only potential dupes left are the Browns, and I don't think they'll bite either. It's going to be hilarious when the Titans take Hunter then the Browns choose Sanders over Ward.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

Ward just isn't a 1.01-level prospect. Ward is in the same tier as Shedeur Sanders, who everyone has tumbling down the draft board. None of it adds up.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

Also: Not sure about Starks/ATL. He's a FS in the NFL. Kinda redundant with Jessie Bates III entrenched there. The Falcons need a safety that can roam, get downhill, get involved near the LOS. Starks is 197 lbs. Not his game.

With you on PIT/Egbuka. If he's there, I don't know how they pass on him. There's a pronounced value drop-off in this WR class after McMillan/Golden/Egbuka/Burden and PIT doesn't even have a 2nd-rounder. Jaylin Noel and Kyle Williams are the only other WR prospects with a chance to be early contributors, but they are much lesser prospects than Egbuka and may not be available to PIT at 3.83 anyway.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
Nice mock. Wondering if you have Mykel Williams too high though. Very mediocre Pro Day. Out of curiosity - why wouldn't you like the DAL/Will Johnson pick and which prospect would you prefer? I kinda like the pick. I say trade Diggs and rebuild the secondary. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

Yeah, Walker definitely flashes the edge juice to be Reddick-type. He really is a lump of clay. Just depends on what the coaches want to do with him.

I wonder if the Raiders could take Walker at 1.06. Their LB depth chart is pretty grim and they don't have a whole lot of edge juice beyond Crosby. Could be a Bruce Irvin-type SLB for Carroll.

CAR is as good a fit as any for Walker. Evero runs a lot of blitz packages out of that 3-4 - Walker would be excellent in that capacity.

Good point about Taylor's expiring contract. Johnson is holding a private workout for NFL scouts on April 14. Maybe his draft stock rebounds if all goes well.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

Jalon Walker isn't very good in coverage. Not saying he couldn't be - he has the athleticism and just turned 21. At off-ball LB, his game is mostly hellified blitzing and scooting and lassoing guys. He's moldable, but I don't think he steps into an NFL starting lineup as an asset in coverage.

I don't know how much I trust Adam Schefter anymore. He used to be the man, but he seems to be putting a lot of mixed messages out there lately.

I love Jahdae Barron, but a pure boundary CB1 like Will Johnson might be a better fit for the Saints. They're already invested in Alonte Taylor, who is best suited as a slot that can bounce around the secondary.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

I don't know how much I trust Adam Schefter anymore. He used to be the man, but he seems to be putting a lot of mixed messages out there lately.

bigdavesieradzki01181985 • 0 Posts (1

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter

Good points. I see Walker as more of a Haason Reddick type in that I think he'd be best utilized as mainly a pass rusher, but could moonlight some in coverage.

And fair enough on Johnson/Barron. You could be right. But Johnson has the injury concerns surrounding him and hasn't worked out for teams yet. Plus as I said, the Saints hired Barron's college secondary coach. So I went with Barron over Johnson at least for now. Taylor I sort of took into consideration, but he's a free agent after 2025, so IDK if he'll still be on their roster long term.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
I'll keep asking this question until I get a reasonable answer: If Shedeur Sanders makes sense for the Giants at 1.03, then why doesn't he make sense for the Browns at 1.02? 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide
I'll keep asking this question until I get a reasonable answer: If Shedeur Sanders makes sense for the Giants at 1.03, then why doesn't he make sense for the Browns at 1.02? 1 0

	42yardline • 58 Posts (19 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Sanders does make sense for the Browns. Of all the draft bust QBs Cleveland has taken over the last 10-15 years, the law of averages alone dictates that the Browns are due - go for it Brownies! 1 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

Great mock, per usual.

Travis Hunter/NE seems a very awkward fit to me. If Hunter isn't drafted primarily to play boundary CB, his value takes a ding, IMO. 1.04 could be a trade down spot in your scenario. The Saints need a boundary corner and more juice at WR...maybe they swap with NE? 1.09 seems a proper value range for potential NE targets like Will Campbell, Mason Graham, Tet McMillan or even Ashton Jeanty.

I think Charlie's IND/Booker report might be one of his whiffs. Draft trends are broken annually, but Chris Ballard/RAS is definitely a thing. I love Booker, but undeniably bad body/bad athlete. Lot of prominent mocks have Booker sliding to the 2nd RD recently.

For what it's worth, I think the Colts will do everything in their power to come out of the 1st RD with Warren or Loveland. Ballard was reportedly trying like mad to move up for Bowers last year. IND has ignored the TE position for too long. (This assumes IND doesn't trade for Dallas Goedert - possible, given the Steichen connection.)

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide
4.57 forty for Azareye'h Thomas at FSU's Pro Day, per Tony Pauline. Ouch. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

@The Champ

Egbuka would be a great fit for the Steelers. I really like your idea of adding Keenan Allen, too. If/when they sign Rodgers, they may prefer Allen's experience for what could be a one-season Rodgers window. Or maybe they trade Pickens for a mid/late 2nd-rounder and get both Egbuka and Allen. PIT still has a good amount of cap space and maneuverability. We'll see.

I think PIT will draft a 3-4 NT in the first two rounds. That run defense is just not up to Steelers standards and is helpless vs. BAL's Lindebaum/Faalele/Ricard/Henry battering ram. Keeanu Benton needs to move off the nose to his natural 3-4 DE spot. I have to think PIT is kicking the tires on Kenneth Grant and Tyleik Williams.

Any of the 1st RD O-linemen make sense for the Cardinals. Paris Johnson is the only guaranteed starter on that line, IMO. Relying on Jonah Williams is especially bad business.

Yeah, coaching connect-the-dots stuff like with Justin Frye rarely pans out when predicting the draft. I gave up on that angle a looong time ago. The best example I can remember is the 2011 draft and Nick Fairley. The Titans had just hired Auburn's Tracy Rocker as their D-line coach, and everybody immediately matched TEN/Fairley because of it. I mean, you couldn't find a mock on this site that didn't have TEN selecting Fairley. When I consistently submitted mocks that had the Titans going with non-Fairley prospects (I thought Fairley was overrated), the comment section went torches and pitchforks on me. It was insane. That was also the draft where I consistently had DAL selecting Tyron Smith and had daily comment section battles with the "Jerry Jones has never selected an O-lineman in the first round!!" herd. I think I gathered about 300 thumbs downs alone during the '11 pre-draft cycle lol.

I think Josh Simmons may linger on the board longer than most think.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
4.57 forty for Azareye'h Thomas at FSU's Pro Day, per Tony Pauline. Ouch. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide
I'll keep asking this question until I get a reasonable answer: If Shedeur Sanders makes sense for the Giants at 1.03, then why doesn't he make sense for the Browns at 1.02? 1 0

	Poontang • 14 Posts (9 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Because Deion will announce pre-draft that his boy will NEVER play in Cleveland 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide
4.57 forty for Azareye'h Thomas at FSU's Pro Day, per Tony Pauline. Ouch. 0 0

The Champ • 148 Posts (31

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter Thor Nystrom made a couple of interesting connections on his latest mock. He mocked Egbuka to the Steelers at 21, noting that he's a perfect zone-beater and that he'd be a great fit with what DK and Pickens do. If Rodgers is the QB, it's actually good logic, and since the Steelers don't have a 2nd rounder, perhaps they actually use their 1st on a WR.

The other one that raised my eyebrow was him mocking Simmons to the Cardinals at 16. I've toyed with that idea myself, knowing that Ossenfort's first pick as GM was current LT Paris Johnson, out of Ohio St. Of course, Simmons is also a Buckeye. But what I wasn't aware of is that Simmons' former OL coach at Ohio St. was Justin Frye...who is now the OL coach of the Cardinals. Now, these things don't always end up working out -- I recall that the Chargers had Jordan Addison's old WR coach on staff and yet they (inexplicably) opted for Quentin Johnson over Addison -- but it's still interesting to me, for sure.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide
4.57 forty for Azareye'h Thomas at FSU's Pro Day, per Tony Pauline. Ouch. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
@The Champ I'm stuck on the idea of Jahdae Barron or Emeka Egbuka for the Rams. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide
4.57 forty for Azareye'h Thomas at FSU's Pro Day, per Tony Pauline. Ouch. 0 0

	The Champ • 148 Posts (31 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Perfect! Now my Rams can get him at #101! (I have been mocking him in the high-2nd, so I guess I have to change that now.) 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide
Golden to DET is interesting. Jamo trade? About time we see a mock that has the marbles to match NE/Jeanty. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

@joshmango99

Agree 100% on NE/Jeanty.

Golden would be a great value at 1.28. I'm guessing he's off the board by then, but I see your logic.

EDGE is still a need position for DET, IMO. Davenport is completely unreliable and Paschal is a run-stopper with no pass-rush juice. The severity of Hutchinson's injury must also be taken into account. 1.28 could be a sweet spot for EDGE value with Mike Green and James Pearce possibilities to slide due to character concerns. Ezeiruaku could be there, too.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
Golden to DET is interesting. Jamo trade? About time we see a mock that has the marbles to match NE/Jeanty. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
@The Champ I have the Rams moving up for Barron, too. He's exactly the kinda dog they look for. Great minds lol. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

@The Champ

Thought the same thing about ARI/Golden. Don't mind Golden in that range, but a 1st RD investment on a distant 3rd receiving option seems a luxury ARI can't afford.

I'd add ILB to that ARI needs list. Obviously not a premium position, but Gannon's PHI-inspired scheme really needs a Zack Baun-type playmaker to click. ARI currently has journeymen Mack Wilson and Akeem Davis-Gaither at ILB and don't seem to be making much of an effort to re-sign Kyzir White. Jihaad Campbell or Jalon Walker would make a lot of sense for ARI.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

With you on Saints/Will Johnson. Feels like Johnson's floor.

Not sure about Dolphins/Banks. Not arguing the value, but Miami seems to be high on '24 2nd RD LT Patrick Paul.

Arizona signed NT Dalvin Tomlinson to 2 yrs/$29M, with $16M guaranteed. Could make Kenneth Grant less likely.

I think the Raiders/Jeanty hype is legit. Carroll wants a smashmouth team and Jeanty is arguably the best prospect in the draft. It makes sense.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

@The Champ

Paul had his growing pains, but he was a very raw prospect and forced into the lineup too early, so that was to be expected. Just not sure if MIA pulls the plug on a 2nd-round investment that quickly, especially considering he doesn't guard Tua's blind side.

I just get the sense that the Dolphins don't prioritize interior O-line that much. Similar system to SF (who also bargain hunt at interior O-line) where the ball is out of the QB's hand in a flash. Philosophies/trends change though, so you could easily be right. The Dolphins badly need to get more physical on offense.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

With you on Saints/Will Johnson. Feels like Johnson's floor.

Not sure about Dolphins/Banks. Not arguing the value, but Miami seems to be high on '24 2nd RD LT Patrick Paul.

Arizona signed NT Dalvin Tomlinson to 2 yrs/$29M, with $16M guaranteed. Could make Kenneth Grant less likely.

I think the Raiders/Jeanty hype is legit. Carroll wants a smashmouth team and Jeanty is arguably the best prospect in the draft. It makes sense.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

@The Champ

Yeah, Pickens was an obvious trade candidate even before the Metcalf acquisition made him redundant. No way the Steelers are going to give Pickens WR1 money next year.

A Day 2 pick for Pickens sounds right - a 2nd-rounder even. He just turned 24. Unfortunately, I could see my Jets in on that. The Cowboys, Patriots, Cardinals and Panthers could also be interested.

Keenan Allen would be a good fit in PIT. Too bad Rodgers will demand Allen Lazard.

Speaking of trades - we haven't seen any draft picks traded yet. There's usually trade action by now. It's eerily quiet.

Thought: If Ward and Sanders go 1.01 and 1.02, I wonder if the Giants could draft Abdul Carter at 1.03 then put Thibodeaux on the trade block. There's a lot of buzz that the Giants are hesitant to make a long-term commitment to him.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

Love this mock and love the trades. I'm currently working on my mock and have the same exact NE/LV trade. It just makes so much sense; sure, LV has the worst RB room in the NFL and Jeanty would be a great fit, but they also desperately need a CB1 and a big-play receiver to complement Bowers and Meyers. Hunter could provide both. I love Jeanty, but he loses that "value" debate every time.

From NE's side, they have Christian Gonzalez, signed Carlton Davis to a nice bag and even have big-play-CB-that-moonlights-as-a-WR Marcus Jones, so I'm not sure where Hunter fits for the Pats unless they value him at 1.04 purely as a WR. Doubtful.

A potential monkey wrench in the NE/LV trade scenario is NE signing Tyron Smith. The Pats still have mucho cap space and haven't been shy about handing out bags to older/injury-prone vets (Davis, Harold Landry, Morgan Moses) to spackle need positions during free agency.

Love the WAS/Ezeiruaka pick. Dan Quinn still doesn't have his all-important LEO, and 1.29 is right about where one of this draft's custom-built LEOs (Ezeiruaka/Mike Green/James Pearce) should still be available. WAS should be able to stick 'n' pick and get excellent value.

Gotta push back on SF/Walker. I don't see how this isn't a trench-heavy draft for the 49ers. The D-line is just Bosa and tumbleweeds, while the O-line needs a LG now and likely two OTs by 2026. SF is excellent at finding LB value on Day 2/3, and their last 1st RD LB (R. Foster) burnt them to a crisp. In your scenario, I think it would be Mykel Williams or Kelvin Banks for SF. Banks in particular would fit SF's MO of drafting with an eye a year or two into the future (Pearsall in preparation for Deebo's exit, etc.). The 'Niners could plop Banks in at LG this season then kick him out to LT as soon as Trent Williams goes completely off the cliff. That's serious value at 1.11.

Nitpick: Not sure about PIT/O. Hampton. They re-signed Warren and picked up Gainwell, so a 1st-rounder on a bruising complement in a RBBC seems rich. I gotta think they learned their lesson with Najee Harris. In your scenario, I have to think PIT would be all over Kenneth Grant. The way their run-defense was pummeled last season can't be sitting well in PIT. They want to move Keeanu Benton off the nose, so Grant's presence would essentially upgrade two positions.

(BTW, I still think Russ could re-sign with PIT. Heavy-package, 2-TE sets with a couple of moon ball-magnet WRs on the boundaries...the offensive seems designed for Russ, not Rodgers. Rodgers can't move at all anymore and was hesitant to push the ball downfield last season.)

Last thing: I think CLE could easily Shedeur Sanders. I'm not a huge fan of Sanders as a top-5 value, but I'm not sure why I'm seeing so many mocks that have Carter or Hunter going to CLE, then turning right around and giving Sanders to the Giants as a "no-brainer". If Sanders is a no-brainer for the Giants, why wouldn't he be a no-brainer for the Browns? CLE's QB depth chart is just Kenny Pickett, and their cap situation probably makes a rookie the only affordable QB option.

	psteezie • 0 Posts (0) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Appreciate the feedback. I think the LV/NE trade is very likely - whether the Pats want OT or a skill position player, they'll still get the guy they want at #6, and LV would benefit more from Hunter than Jeanty in terms of elevating the team in multiple ways. I do see the Jalon Walker argument - Mykel Williams was the other option I considered for SF. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

With you on Saints/Will Johnson. Feels like Johnson's floor.

Not sure about Dolphins/Banks. Not arguing the value, but Miami seems to be high on '24 2nd RD LT Patrick Paul.

Arizona signed NT Dalvin Tomlinson to 2 yrs/$29M, with $16M guaranteed. Could make Kenneth Grant less likely.

I think the Raiders/Jeanty hype is legit. Carroll wants a smashmouth team and Jeanty is arguably the best prospect in the draft. It makes sense.

The Champ • 148 Posts (31

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter A couple of thoughts about the Miami OL situation. First, even if they are high on Paul, he was dreadful last season. Secondly, even if they see him filling the shoes of Armstead at LT, there's still a LG opening, and although Liam Eichenberg is on the roster, he's awful. Miami's running game didn't work last season because of the poor OL play. Now, I'm not saying they will go OL at 13, but if they happen to love, say, Banks, I could see that as a possibility.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide
Golden to DET is interesting. Jamo trade? About time we see a mock that has the marbles to match NE/Jeanty. 0 0

joshmango99 • 2 Posts (1

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter

For the Lions, I think they have a complete enough roster to afford a luxury pick. Outside of Amon-Ra and Jameson I do not see a true difference maker at receiver. With Jameson's issues staying on the field, and a looming contract decision, I think it is best for them to have a high quality contingency option in place.

For the Patriots, it simply comes down to putting the best pieces around Maye. The positional value is not there, but the value Jeanty would bring in developing a strong run game for Maye would be completely worth it.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
@The Champ I don't care what the media is saying - I'll believe Rodgers-to-PIT when I see it. It just doesn't make sense. The "screw the middle of the field" offensive personnel PIT has right now is designed for Russell Wilson, not Rodgers. Hell, Mason Rudolph and Jalen Milroe at 3.83 makes more schematic sense than Rodgers. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
@laughwithdan Jets fan here and I 100% agree - and it's not just because I like Warren. We gotta score points. Whether it's TE or WR, we desperately need another high-level receiving target other than Garrett. A snot-bubble run-blocking RT like Aireontae Ersery should be there at 2.42. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

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1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

With you on Saints/Will Johnson. Feels like Johnson's floor.

Not sure about Dolphins/Banks. Not arguing the value, but Miami seems to be high on '24 2nd RD LT Patrick Paul.

Arizona signed NT Dalvin Tomlinson to 2 yrs/$29M, with $16M guaranteed. Could make Kenneth Grant less likely.

I think the Raiders/Jeanty hype is legit. Carroll wants a smashmouth team and Jeanty is arguably the best prospect in the draft. It makes sense.

	PrimeTimePerri • 2 Posts (1 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Thanks for the insights! That Patrick Paul tip is definitely something I'll have to look into. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

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1 years 0 month(s) ago

I'm not sure about IND/Booker. Ballard is a RAS-centric drafter, and the Colts let Kelly and Fries walk with the plan to slide Bortolini and Goncalves in at C and RG. I think if the Colts address RG in the 1st RD, it's more likely to be a prospect with the versatility to kick out to RT as a hedge against whatever is going on with Braden Smith. Josh Simmons might make more sense.

For what it's worth, both Daniel Jeremiah and Mel Kiper have Booker falling out of the 1st RD of their latest mocks. Say what you will about them, but they're in-the-loop guys. Their March/April mocks are generally indicative of prospects' ultimate draft range.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

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1 years 0 month(s) ago

@The Champ

Ojulari and Uche were great post-1st wave free agency value signings. Both young with encouraging pass-rush metrics. Roseman is a beast. He makes it look easy. As a Jets fan, it's painful to watch.

Still, it can be argued that Ojulari/Uche/Hunt are best suited for rotational roles, and Bryce Huff is on the trade block, so I wouldn't be shocked if Roseman went EDGE - especially if Mike Green, Donovan Ezeiruaku, James Pearce or (somehow) Mykel Williams are hanging out in their range. Value.

I also don't think the idea of Roseman going O-line is outlandish at all. Roseman regularly and aggressively fortifies O-line at the first sign of foundational cracks, and Lane Johnson is almost 35. Why wouldn't he consider someone like Josh Simmons or Josh Conerly to play RG then kick out to RT when Johnson hangs 'em up?

If Colston Loveland slips into the 20s I could see Roseman moving up for him in a heartbeat. Loveland can do Dallas Goedert-type stuff.

Walter Nolen in the Milton Williams role makes a lot of sense, too.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

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1 years 0 month(s) ago

@The Champ

Jihaad Campbell could definitely pop off before Jalon Walker.

Tet McMillan's Pro Day 4.48 forty may have sealed the deal. Your CAR/McMillan match makes a lot of sense, and he might go even higher.

Loveland's AC joint shoulder injury is an issue. His surgeon sent a "it'll be fine" letter to all 32 teams, but Loveland won't be able to workout pre-draft. Athletic testing is crucial for TE prospects. Without that data, some teams may bump him down their boards. Loveland could slide a bit.

I'm seeing Kelvin Banks Jr. at +600 to come off the board as OL1, and I'm intrigued. Banks has become a somewhat forgotten man amongst the OL crop and I'm not really sure why. He's arguably the cleanest LT projection in the group.

What are the odds on DEN/Jeanty? Payton and company moving up for Jeanty isn't unrealistic.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

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1 years 0 month(s) ago

If CHI wants to trade up for Jeanty, I'm thinking 1.04 is the spot. I don't see why the Jags wouldn't take Jeanty at 1.05 for themselves. Etienne is on the trade block and the new regime has no loyalty to Tank Bigsby. The Patriots could have interest in Jeanty too, but Rhamondre Stevenson's new contract makes it difficult to move on from him. The Pats could trade down to 1.10 - which would be a more palatable range for Loveland, Warren, Tet or one of the OTs - while picking up 2.39 or 2.41 from CHI.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

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1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

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1 years 0 month(s) ago

@The Champ

I think three RBs go in the 1st round. (Jeanty/Hampton/Henderson) DAL's signings of Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders has me wondering if they think that not only will Jeanty be off the board by 1.12, but Hampton too. Hampton is a stud that's kinda being lost in the shuffle right now. I wouldn't be shocked if CHI takes him at 1.10.

DEN has made no effort to upgrade their RB room so far, which makes me wonder if Payton and company might have their eyes on Henderson at 1.20, just as they were very obviously targeting system-fit/"overdraft" Bo Nix last year. Henderson's skill set is about as close to Alvin Kamara's as you'll find.

I think Jeanty will be very appealing to JAX because it's all about making sure Trevor Lawrence maximizes his potential for them. That's their primary focus right now and largely why Coen was hired. A Tomlinson-type workhorse RB would be more valuable in that capacity than a trade down for a DT or CB2 or something and a RD 2 "maybe" like Judkins or Kaleb Johnson, IMO.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

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1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

The Champ • 148 Posts (31

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1 years 0 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter I wouldn't rule out Jeanty to the Jags, sure. However, it's quite possible that the new GM may want to get extra assets and may think that a RB is simply not the right pick for them, no matter how good he is. I certainly agree that Etienne isn't someone you plant your flag for, nor Bigsby. But they may feel like moving down for, say, one of the Bears' high-2nd Round picks (possibly while giving up one of their own picks much later) is smart business. Something like #5 and #107 for #10 and #41 is close on the trade value chart. Perhaps they could add their top-rated defensive player at 10, and because this draft is so rich with RB talent, they could grab a RB upgrade on Day 2 where they'd have picks #36, 41, 70, and 88. Just a thought.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

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1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

I can't see Tyler Booker getting past the Ravens. Not arguing Zabel's value in that range, but he seems better suited for a zone scheme (SEA?) than BAL's power/gap. Booker is custom-built for the BAL scheme. Plop him in at LG and watch him be a perennial Pro Bowler.

Really hoping we get more clarity on Mike Green's history at UVa. Top-10 candidate if the character concerns are eased.

Still don't like Tet in the top-15. Have a feeling we see Golden/Tet/Egbuka pop off in the 16 to 26 range. All nice prospects, but all three seem more deluxe WR2s than WR1s, IMO.

I think we'll see more WR trade action that could open/fill spots on teams' WR depth charts. George Pickens feels redundant now that PIT has signed and payed Metcalf. I can't see PIT giving a bag to Pickens when - like Metcalf - he's more a lid-lifting, deluxe WR2 than true WR1. Should PIT trade Pickens, Golden becomes an option as an economical, high-quality complement to Metcalf.

I'm pretty sure Tyreek Hill will be traded, too. Having both Hill and Waddle under contract isn't financially sustainable for MIA, and they desperately need to reinvent their offensive identity. (Charmin soft.) The NW-I signing could be a precursor to a Hill trade. I could see the Raiders trading for Tyreek. They still have a lot of cap space and need that speed element at WR.

I could see SEA target Tet. His skill set would perfectly complement JS-N. Assuming SEA signs a FA like Scherff/Zeitler/Becton, I think they'll try to come out of Day One with Tet, Warren or Loveland.

Egbuka screams "Rams" to me. He totally jives with their Draft Day MO - slightly older/productive/mature/team leader ready to hit the ground running in the NFL. Just not sure if Egbuka makes it to 1.26.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

@The Champ

I've thought about Loveland or Warren to CHI, but Kmet is still young (just turned 26 a week ago) and could improve in Ben Johnson's TE-friendly system. The Bears also signed Durham Smythe for his blocking and familiarity with Johnson's system from their days together at MIA. Unless CHI plans on trading Kmet, a TE at 1.10 seems unlikely. Not impossible, though.

I think a versatile stud LB (Jalon Walker, Jihaad Campbell) is a darkhorse option for CHI at 1.10. Edmunds and Edwards were Eberflus scheme-specific signings and both could easily be gone by 2026. Walker and Campbell both have the skill set to thrive in the Zack Baun role in Dennis Allen's scheme.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

Really hoping we get more clarity on Mike Green's history at UVa. Top-10 candidate if the character concerns are eased.

Still don't like Tet in the top-15. Have a feeling we see Golden/Tet/Egbuka pop off in the 16 to 26 range. All nice prospects, but all three seem more deluxe WR2s than WR1s, IMO.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

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1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

Really hoping we get more clarity on Mike Green's history at UVa. Top-10 candidate if the character concerns are eased.

Still don't like Tet in the top-15. Have a feeling we see Golden/Tet/Egbuka pop off in the 16 to 26 range. All nice prospects, but all three seem more deluxe WR2s than WR1s, IMO.

The Champ • 148 Posts (31

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter Yeah, Jeanty would not get by the Bears at 10. (If they were to move up for him, it would have to be to 4 or 5, and I could see either the Pats or the Jags moving down.) I have the Bears actually going with Warren, as I think they've shored up the OL need and maybe Warren's blocking would be something that Johnson really appreciates, in addition to the receiving. Cole Kmet wasn't good last season (PFF grade barely above 60) and would only leave behind a cheap dead cap hit next year, so they could absolutely consider Warren imo.

You also convinced me on Booker being a better fit for the Ravens than Zabel would be. He gets downhill with power, and that's what they want to do in the run game.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

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1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

Really hoping we get more clarity on Mike Green's history at UVa. Top-10 candidate if the character concerns are eased.

Still don't like Tet in the top-15. Have a feeling we see Golden/Tet/Egbuka pop off in the 16 to 26 range. All nice prospects, but all three seem more deluxe WR2s than WR1s, IMO.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

@The Champ

Tet makes a lot of sense for CAR at 1.08. I question Tet's ceiling; I think the Mike Evans comps are generous...more of a Michael Thomas, maybe Marques Colston-type, IMO. But that's still really good and this draft doesn't have a lot of blue chippers, so Tet could easily be not too far behind the blue chip Carter/Hunter/Jeanty clump on certain team's draft boards.

I have a hunch Loveland will come off the board before Warren. I'm not sure if Warren has the athleticism to do the things he did at Penn State at the pro level. Definite 1st-rounder, but I think he could linger to the late teens/20s.

Hampton would be a nice fit in DEN. Henderson, too. With the way the Broncos are ticking off "need" boxes, I would love to see them move up for Jeanty if he's somehow still on the board in the teens. (But he won't be. All those mocks that force Jeanty to DAL at 1.12 crack me up. I'd bet a pinkie that he won't be there.) Jeanty would be absolute hell on wheels in the DEN scheme.

I've toyed with the idea of CHI moving up a few spots to secure Jeanty. He's what that offense needs.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

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1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

Really hoping we get more clarity on Mike Green's history at UVa. Top-10 candidate if the character concerns are eased.

Still don't like Tet in the top-15. Have a feeling we see Golden/Tet/Egbuka pop off in the 16 to 26 range. All nice prospects, but all three seem more deluxe WR2s than WR1s, IMO.

The Champ • 148 Posts (31

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter I almost put Zabel at 18 to Seattle and think that could happen if they don't go WR. And hey, they did sign MVS today, though that shouldn't preclude them from picking a WR they love if one is available.

Booker could be a fit if he makes it to the Ravens, sure.

Totally agree with the logic of trading Pickens, as I have no doubt that they don't want to commit to him long-term. As far as Tyreek, I could see that too, but that regime might be on the hot seat, so if they think that trading him hurts their team, I don't know, that might be a tough sell.

I'm going to update my mock and put Tet at #8 to Carolina. I'm getting the vibe that he's the clear WR1 (not counting Hunter), and the Panthers don't have a game-breaker for Bryce Young. McMillan may not have 4.3 wheels or anything, but make no mistake, he's a playmaker and he's been a star since he stepped onto a college field.

I don't think Egbuka would make it to 26, just because of the chatter that he will run in the 4.3's at his Pro Day. If that happens, combined with his production and pedigree (Ohio St. is churning out pro WR's like a mother), heck, I could see him going top 20. As I write in this mock, maybe this is the year that Gutekunst goes against form and finally picks a WR in the 1st, like Roseman did with a CB last year. It's such a clear and obvious need for them.

I'm also going to need to change Loveland going 20th to the Broncos now. The signing of Evan Engram in free agency suggests to me that the Broncos don't think that he will be available there. I will have Hampton going with that pick now, which will have to bump someone from this latest mock.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

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1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

Yeah, the PIT/D.K. signing immediately had me thinking Russ could be back in PIT. Metcalf/Pickens on the boundary...that's moon ball city. PIT could trade Pickens, but still.

Could also see the Jets signing Fields. Maybe draft Membou at 1.07, plop him in at RT and lean into a poor man's Ravens attack featuring Fields/Breece Hall/Braelon Allen. Probably be good enough for about 6 wins - enough to keep us out of range for a true franchise QB in next year's draft. Very Jets.

Agree on SEA. They're recalibrating, not tanking. I think the Geno/D.K. moves were forward-thinking, assuming Darnold is on the way. If there was no plan, I don't think Jarran Reed and Ernest Jones IV would have re-signed as quickly as they did. I'm wondering if SEA will target Warren, Loveland or McMillan in the 1st RD now. (Assuming they address the O-line in FA.)

I really think everyone is overthinking it with TEN and the Titans will just draft Ward. They flat-out don't have a QB and we've heard ZERO about them being in on any of the FA/trade QB options beyond pure speculation. And if Sanders is a better fit in Callahan's attack than Ward, then Sanders is a good fit in Stefanski's attack, so I doubt TEN would screw around with a trade and potentially miss out on both QBs at 1.03.

We just fundamentally disagree on Sanders' draft value. Been deep-diving into his film...he's just not a top-5 value. His completion % is propped up by mucho bubble screens. His deep pass % is just 18%, and Ward has a better adjusted overall completion %.

Sanders' arm strength is marginal. His deep balls are ducks that the receivers have to gear down for. Sanders also absolutely freezes at the first sign of disguised coverage or when forced to move off his first read. Then the sacks pile up. The BYU and Nebraska film is terrifying, and it's not like those are SEC defenses or something.

Also think the character concerns are legit. Josh Rosen vibes, but even more petulant and comes with the reality show circus that I can't see conservative NFL organizations like the Giants being too keen on.

We'll have more clarity in a few hours here. Now watch Darnold sign with the Giants lol. Enjoy the feeding frenzy!

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
@The Champ

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

Yeah, the PIT/D.K. signing immediately had me thinking Russ could be back in PIT. Metcalf/Pickens on the boundary...that's moon ball city. PIT could trade Pickens, but still.

We'll have more clarity in a few hours here. Now watch Darnold sign with the Giants lol. Enjoy the feeding frenzy!

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

Yeah, the PIT/D.K. signing immediately had me thinking Russ could be back in PIT. Metcalf/Pickens on the boundary...that's moon ball city. PIT could trade Pickens, but still.

We'll have more clarity in a few hours here. Now watch Darnold sign with the Giants lol. Enjoy the feeding frenzy!

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
@The Champ

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

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1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

Yeah, the PIT/D.K. signing immediately had me thinking Russ could be back in PIT. Metcalf/Pickens on the boundary...that's moon ball city. PIT could trade Pickens, but still.

We'll have more clarity in a few hours here. Now watch Darnold sign with the Giants lol. Enjoy the feeding frenzy!

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
@The Champ

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

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1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

Yeah, the PIT/D.K. signing immediately had me thinking Russ could be back in PIT. Metcalf/Pickens on the boundary...that's moon ball city. PIT could trade Pickens, but still.

We'll have more clarity in a few hours here. Now watch Darnold sign with the Giants lol. Enjoy the feeding frenzy!

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
@The Champ Interesting. Not sure if Russ is anything more than a bridge at this point. Jets just signed Brandon Freakin' Stephens for 3/$36M. Ugh. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

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1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

Yeah, the PIT/D.K. signing immediately had me thinking Russ could be back in PIT. Metcalf/Pickens on the boundary...that's moon ball city. PIT could trade Pickens, but still.

We'll have more clarity in a few hours here. Now watch Darnold sign with the Giants lol. Enjoy the feeding frenzy!

	The Champ • 148 Posts (31 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter From Connor Hughes: "Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback the Giants want. They're waiting to find out if he wants them. Most league sources I touch base with believe Rodgers is headed to Steelers, which would lead the Giants to Russell Wilson. The problem: The Titans, and others, are interested in Wilson, too." </div> > 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

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1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

Yeah, the PIT/D.K. signing immediately had me thinking Russ could be back in PIT. Metcalf/Pickens on the boundary...that's moon ball city. PIT could trade Pickens, but still.

We'll have more clarity in a few hours here. Now watch Darnold sign with the Giants lol. Enjoy the feeding frenzy!

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
@The Champ Feels like Rodgers is being used as negotiation leverage throughout this process. Still absolutely no action from TEN or CLE. Looks like you may be right about QBs going 1/2. Fields to the Jets (especially at that amount) was exactly what I didn't want to see happen. It never ends. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

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1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

Yeah, the PIT/D.K. signing immediately had me thinking Russ could be back in PIT. Metcalf/Pickens on the boundary...that's moon ball city. PIT could trade Pickens, but still.

We'll have more clarity in a few hours here. Now watch Darnold sign with the Giants lol. Enjoy the feeding frenzy!

	The Champ • 148 Posts (31 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Darnold to Seattle and Fields to the Jets. Just seemed that was the way that the wind was blowing. Seems like the Steelers are going to end up with Wilson again or...Aaron Rodgers. Also seems like Rodgers may have options between the Steelers and the Giants. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

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1 years 0 month(s) ago - hide

Yeah, the PIT/D.K. signing immediately had me thinking Russ could be back in PIT. Metcalf/Pickens on the boundary...that's moon ball city. PIT could trade Pickens, but still.

We'll have more clarity in a few hours here. Now watch Darnold sign with the Giants lol. Enjoy the feeding frenzy!

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 0 month(s) ago
This is meant for @The Champ 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

I don't think the Seahawks will trade D.K. Metcalf, but if they do, I'm all over that if I'm the Jaguars. JAX should trade pick 2.36 to SEA for Metcalf, then draft Ashton Jeanty at 1.05. Along with Brian Thomas Jr., that's instant explosive offense.

Remaining QB carousel predictions:

Sam Darnold - SEA, Justin Fields - PIT, Russell Wilson - NYG

TEN drafts Cam Ward for themselves.

My Jets go into the draft with bridge/mentor Tyrod Taylor at the top of the QB depth chart. Because they're the Jets, they draft Sanders at 1.07. If they pass on Sanders at 1.07, then...

After taking Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter at 1.02, CLE trades up into the mid/late-1st for a sliding Shedeur Sanders (if the Jets don't take him at 1.07). If the Jets do select Sanders, then the Browns take Jaxson Dart at 2.33 or Quinn Ewers in the 3rd round. The team that doesn't draft Sanders acquires Kirk Cousins post-draft. bada-bing, bada-boom.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

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1 years 1 month(s) ago - hide

Remaining QB carousel predictions:

Sam Darnold - SEA, Justin Fields - PIT, Russell Wilson - NYG

TEN drafts Cam Ward for themselves.

My Jets go into the draft with bridge/mentor Tyrod Taylor at the top of the QB depth chart. Because they're the Jets, they draft Sanders at 1.07. If they pass on Sanders at 1.07, then...

The Champ • 148 Posts (31

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter I have the Giants trading up to 1 for Ward, and Sanders going at 2 to the Browns. I don't think that Dart lasts to 33 and I don't think that the Browns could possibly know for sure that they could trade up for him. And since this year's QB's are straight trash after the QB3, yeah, I just think the Browns are boxed into having to pick a QB at #2 overall. I agree with Schefter fully here. They paid Garrett so they clearly (foolishly?) think they can contend with decent QB play, and that means that they have to procure a QB cheaply because they obviously can't pay market value for one such as Darnold. So it has to be a QB at 2.

I agree that Cousins waits until after the draft, because he doesn't want to go to a team that might start a rookie over him in short order. Since I have the Titans passing on a QB, perhaps that's where he ends up. It's also possible that he has no choice but to go to a team where it could be a competition with a rookie; his stock could be low enough.

I think the Steelers are more likely to retain Wilson over Fields. Why go and trade for Metcalf (and then pay him) if your QB is going to be Fields, who they did everything in their power to hide from throwing the ball last year? Wilson has familiarity with DK and while I have them drafting Dart at #21, it just feels to me like he would be their preferred veteran QB.

As for Fields, I think he may end up with the Jets. (Sorry!)

Darnold does seem ticketed for Seattle, as it makes sense that the Seahawks would only do the Geno deal if they had something lined up. I don't buy for a second that they are tanking, even though they dealt Smith and DK away. They could rightfully see Darnold as an upgrade, and he's certainly much younger. As for DK, JSN has clearly become the guy, so paying DK when he's now your WR2 made no sense whatsoever (talking to you, Joe Burrow.) I have them drafting Golden at #18 to replace DK, btw, but now that they have 3 picks in the top 52, they could opt to take a WR in Round 2 instead of at #18.

Oh, and just to put a bow on this, since I think the Browns are boxed into taking a QB at 2, I don't think the Titans would worry that Carter wouldn't be on the board at 3, should they make a deal with the Giants for the #1 pick. I do agree with you that they should pick Ward if they are sold on him. However, they may not be. It does seem like a QB of Sanders' skill set would work better in Callahan's system; however, they could rightfully think that Sanders is simply not good enough to go as the #1 pick. So, why not pick up draft capital from a desperate Giants regime, take Carter at 3, and dip your toes into the QB carousel next year? Maybe Callahan gets fired after a terrible year if that happens, but it's not like new GM Mike Borgonzi will be worried about getting fired so quickly. (Even Ran Carthon got 2 years lol.)

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 0 month(s) ago

Pre-FA Top 15

1. TEN - Cam Ward QB Miami

I'm not buying the TEN/NYG trade talk. It makes no sense for TEN. The Titans don't have a QB and won't find a better option than Ward through trade or free agency, so why wouldn't they just draft him for themselves?

Also: TEN has recently spent a lot of resources on the CB position. With Harold Landry freshly cut and Arden Key another cap casualty waiting to happen, EDGE is a screaming need for TEN, meaning they could prefer Carter over Hunter at 1.03. Basically, Ward and Carter are the prospects that make the most sense for TEN, and dropping down to 1.03 could easily mean missing out on both.

2. CLE - Abdul Carter EDGE Penn State

BPA that would perfectly complement Myles Garrett. I'll be keeping my eye on Carter's medicals.

3. NYG - Travis Hunter CB/WR Colorado

The Giants aren't just bad - they're boring. They need a CB1 AND an injection of star power/big-play excitement. (The Giants had a pathetic 5 total INTs in 2024.) This feels like Hunter's floor.

4. NE - Will Campbell OT LSU

The Pats have ample cap space to address their league-worst OT depth chart, but free agency options like Cam Robinson, Dan Moore Jr. and the ghost of Tyron Smith are very uninspiring.

I know, I know...Will Campbell's alligator arms/zero percentile wingspan would seemingly eliminate him from the discussion at 1.04 for NE. I just have a hunch the Pats may still like him.

We already knew Campbell's length was an issue going into the Combine. (Just like we already knew that Nick Emmanwori was an athletic freak before the Combine.) Campbell's slide (and Emmanwori's rise into the 7-13 range) in post-Combine mock drafts feels like we might be falling into the trap of counting twice. NFL evaluators will go back to the film.

Campbell's length is no doubt concerning, but his advanced technique mostly keeps EDGEs out of his chest, and when he does give ground, he has the (Combine-verified) elite-level athleticism to easily recover.

Let's have some perspective: There's something to be said for being a consensus All-American 3-year SEC starter at LT - regularly facing lengthy, NFL EDGE prospects - and only giving up 2 sacks and 5 QB hits. Campbell has a literal whisker less length than Jake Matthews, who has carved out a rock-solid decade-long NFL career on the blindside. I think the film might convince Vrabel and company that Campbell could do the same.

5. JAX - Ashton Jeanty RB Boise State

It's rare that a team drafting in the top-5 has promising youngsters at every premium position (QB/WR1/OT/EDGE/CB1). The Jags are in position to go pure BPA here. That's Jeanty, who is pound-for-pound the best and cleanest prospect in this draft.

Priority One for the new JAX braintrust is to ensure a proper return on the Trevor Lawrence investment. I highly doubt that the presence of Travis Etienne - a trade candidate that was already being phased out late last season - and Tank Bigsby - a 3rd-round grinder drafted by a failed regime - will dissuade them from selecting a Faulk/Tomlinson/Barkley-level upgrade that would instantly give the offense identity and serve as Lawrence's best friend.

6. LV - Jahdae Barron CB Texas

The current Raiders DB depth chart is nothing but tumbleweeds. Free agency could obviously change that, but for now, Barron - a versatile, absolute DOG that I think could make a Devon Witherspoon-type rise up draft boards - makes sense here.

7. NYJ - Shedeur Sanders QB Colorado

There's chatter that the Jets could be zeroing in on Justin Fields, which conflicts with earlier reports that they were good with going into next season with Tyrod Taylor as a bridge to a rookie QB. I'm guessing - with Geno Smith now in Vegas and Sam Darnold looking like he's on his way to Seattle - that PIT will bring back Fields. (They almost have to.) Should that domino fall, the Taylor/rookie QB scenario becomes highly likely for the Jets.

I don't buy the Sanders hype for a scroll of reasons and think the growing buzz of a slide into the late-1st/early-2nd has legs, but it only takes one (bad) organization to squint hard enough to see Sanders as a potential franchise QB. I have a sinking feeling it'll be my Jets.

New Jets OC Tanner Engstrand comes over from DET, where a juggernaut offense was built around "point guard" QB Jared Goff, so Sanders' skill set would be a good fit in theory.

8. CAR - Mike Green EDGE Marshall

Carolina generated a league-worst 25.5% pressure rate last season. D.J. Wonnum is in the last year of his deal and Jadeveon Clowney is a potential cap casualty.

I get young Khalil Mack vibes from Mike Green. Easy EDGE2 for me and a top-10 value, but I will adjust accordingly depending on what I hear about Green's alleged character concerns.

9. NO - Will Johnson CB Michigan

I was dumb enough to think that the Saints might finally commit to a proper rebuild this offseason, but the restructuring of Derek Carr's contract and Mickey Loomis' comments about being active in free agency likely means another year of fiscal can-kicking, a mediocre record and bringing back Taysom Hill on a reworked contract so that he can continue tormenting me in DFS contests. NFL purgatory.

Whether it's jumping on a prospect perceived to be "falling" (Kool-Aid McKinstry, Bryan Bresee...even going back to Andrus Peat) or overdrafting an "upside" prospect (Trevor Penning, Payton Turner, Cesar Ruiz, Marcus Davenport), Loomis seems forever on the lookout for the potential steal. Getting Will Johnson with any pick after 1.06 could easily be a steal, IMO.

The Saints would probably like to re-sign both Chase Young and Paulson Adebo, but will likely only be able to afford one. I'm guessing that Adebo walks, so there could be a need at boundary corner come Draft Day. No workouts has Johnson stumbling toward the finish line of the predraft process, but the tape shows a plug-n-play CB with Pro Bowl upside when healthy.

10. CHI - Jalon Walker LB Georgia

I anticipate Ryan Poles will continue aggressively checking off "immediate need" boxes during free agency. Expect the Bears to be in on Cs Drew Dalman and Ryan Kelly, and Trey Hendrickson or Chase Young to fill the EDGE void opposite Montez Sweat. (Jadeveon Clowney at the very least.) Poles clearly wants to be in position to let the draft come to him on Day One.

I think that Jalon Walker could go as high as 1.06 and doesn't get out of the top-16, but his size/skill set makes finding the best schematic match tricky. The Nolan Smith comps are a little off, IMO. Walker is cut more from the Zack Baun mold; a do-everything off-ball LB. It just so happens that new CHI DC Dennis Allen's Fangio-related scheme features a "Zack Baun" LB role, making Walker a seamless fit.

I know that a glance at the CHI depth chart would make you think that the Bears are set at LB with Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards, but I don't think Edmunds' price/performance jive, and Edwards (the better player) is nearly 30 and in the final year of his deal. Walker better fits the new scheme and would proactively address what could easily be a need in 2026.

11. SF - Armand Membou OT/G Missouri

12. DAL - Shemar Stewart DE Texas A&M

13. MIA - Kenneth Grant DT Michigan

14. IND - Colston Loveland TE Michigan

15. (TRADE) DEN - Tyler Warren TE Penn State

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

This mock is incredible. You're refreshingly ahead of the curve on the Jahdae Barron rise, Shedeur Sanders slide, Mason Graham semi-slide and Tet McMillan's proper draft range.

Just two nitpicks:

BAL/Malaki Starks. Absolutely no argument with the value of Starks in that range, but with two do-everything safeties already in the fold (they love and will keep Ar'Darius Washington) it seems like Starks might be redundant.

GB/Will Johnson. Again - no argument with the value of Johnson at that spot, and CB is a serious need for GB. I just wonder if Brian Gutekunst's RAS-obsession would sour him on Johnson, assuming relatively poor testing would be what has Johnson available in the 20s in the first place.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago - hide
Unless the Titans sign Darnold, I don't see why they wouldn't just draft Cam Ward. You make a good point about their need for more draft picks, but they're just about as QB-desperate as any team. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@The Champ

I just don't think Sanders goes that high with what the film shows and what I've been reading lately. We just disagree on that. But I will admit - if any team is going to take Sanders over Hunter/Carter, it's the Browns.

Just so many red flags with Sanders. I'll admit that he has a consistency and toughness to his game, but beyond that there's not a lot to like. Even his pretty accuracy % is misleading, as he led the nation in passes at or behind the LOS. Watching deep dives into his game, I haven't seen much more than short layups to targets schemed wide open by Shurmur. When Sanders does push it downfield, it's almost always to Hunter, who contorts his body and makes lemonade out of lemons because he's a badass like that. Also: Sander's self-created pressure rate/sacks caused numbers are astronomical. That's rarely something that improves at the next level. His mind writes checks that his marginal athleticism can't cash.

I think the character concerns are well beyond alleged. Just in the last season, he's pushed a referee, tried to poke a Colorado State defender in the eye, and ruthlessly threw his O-line under the bus in a post-game presser. Nearly every NFL draft insider has reported that his team interviews have been shit shows. "Entitled" and "disinterested" are the words being thrown around most often. Deion even called in on interviews, which is...weird. Teams might be willing to ignore all the noise if Sanders had elite traits, but he doesn't.

It's just baffling to me that the media (especially ESPN) keeps pushing the narrative that Sanders is a top prospect in this draft. I'm beginning to wonder if it's a long-game setup to an "unexpected" draft day slide for Sanders. Dramatic TV. I'm not even kidding.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago
Unless the Titans sign Darnold, I don't see why they wouldn't just draft Cam Ward. You make a good point about their need for more draft picks, but they're just about as QB-desperate as any team. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago - hide
Unless the Titans sign Darnold, I don't see why they wouldn't just draft Cam Ward. You make a good point about their need for more draft picks, but they're just about as QB-desperate as any team. 0 0

The Champ • 148 Posts (31

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter I still think that Sanders will go 2nd overall if Ward goes first to any team other than the Browns. The Browns just can't know for sure that they can get a QB either at 33 or by trading back up. Heck, the QB3 of this draft (likely Dart) could conceivably go as high as #18 to Seattle or #21 to Pittsburgh. (I doubt we'll see that player go much earlier to a team like the Jets or Saints in the top 10, but stranger things have happened!) And there is a massive drop-off after Dart this year. Massive. Jalen Milroe is AWFUL, sorry. Will Howard and Riley Leonard are clipboard holders at the next level. Ewers has no arm strength. The only guy with potential to me is Shough, and he's going to be 26 by the start of the season, so I don't see the analytically-driven front office of the Browns picking him 33rd, nor should they.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago - hide
Unless the Titans sign Darnold, I don't see why they wouldn't just draft Cam Ward. You make a good point about their need for more draft picks, but they're just about as QB-desperate as any team. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@The Champ

1.04 and 1.05 are tough spots. I'd be very surprised if 1-2-3 wasn't some combination of Ward/Carter/Hunter. Carter, Hunter and Jeanty are the only legit blue chips in this draft IMO and I think most team boards will reflect that. Beyond Ward and those three, boards will vary wildly. Trading out of 1.04 and 1.05 will be extremely difficult for NE and JAX.

I'm not sure about Mason Graham in the top-10. The film and metrics obviously speak for themselves, but the sub-300 weigh-in and alligator arms are a concern. Add to that the quality DT depth that will be available on Day 2 and I wonder if Graham slides. I think he'd be great in the middle of the JAX D-line to complement Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen, but with Arik Armstead moving back to his natural DT spot and guys like Tyliek Williams, Walter Nolan, Alfred Collins, Derrick Harmon, etc. potentially there for JAX at 2.36, is Graham the best value for JAX at 1.04?

Priority One for both NE and JAX will be affording their young QBs every opportunity for success. While "when in doubt, draft O-line" is usually a solid philosophy when building around a QB, I don't like the value of Membou (LT only in theory) or Campbell (arm length would make him a historic LT outlier) over the value the impact of a potential LaDainian Tomlinson/Saquan Barkley-type like Jeanty could provide. Tackle-breaking ability is the most stable metric for predicting NFL success for a RB prospect, and Jeanty's yards after contact is just insane. He would be a QB's best friend and immediately establish an offensive identity.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@The Champ

Absolutely. Golden's playoff domination, fluid route-running and easy separation had him in the WR1 conversation even before he ran a 4.29 at the Combine. I don't see how he gets past WR-needy teams in the 20s like PIT, GB and HOU at this point. At worst.

Loveland is only 20 with All-Pro upside. First round lock. Could be ahead of Warren on some boards and I wouldn't be shocked if he went in the 7 to 10 range.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago - hide
Unless the Titans sign Darnold, I don't see why they wouldn't just draft Cam Ward. You make a good point about their need for more draft picks, but they're just about as QB-desperate as any team. 0 0

The Champ • 148 Posts (31

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter Regarding Jeanty, I guess you can't rule it out if Mike Vrabel has heavy influence and wants his new Derrick Henry, so to speak. But if I were them, I'd probably just pick Mason Graham if I couldn't trade down, or Membou if I were convinced he was a true stud tackle. I wouldn't pick Campbell at #4 because of the short arm length. As for whether or not he could go to the Jaguars at #5, I suppose we have to ask ourselves what new GM James Gladstone is likely to do or think. Of course, we have no history to go on, but we do know that he comes from the Rams front office. And while the Rams haven't had a lot of 1st Round picks recently, they have clearly prioritized the OL and DL from a team-building perspective. Therefore, my guess is that the Jags go in that direction with their pick, but who knows. It is true that Walker Little and Anton Harrison are quality young bookend tackles, so drafting a guard at #6 (to replace Brandon Scherff) doesn't really have value. And if Graham is gone, the next-best DT probably doesn't either. It would be a tough position to be in, for sure.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago - hide
Unless the Titans sign Darnold, I don't see why they wouldn't just draft Cam Ward. You make a good point about their need for more draft picks, but they're just about as QB-desperate as any team. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@The Champ

No doubt the Browns will want a young QB - I'm just not convinced it will be at 1.02 if Ward is off the board. I'm beginning to think - with the way things are trending with Sanders - that the Browns may be able to draft Carter or Hunter at 1.02 then trade into the late 1st for Sanders. I guess I just see the Sanders/top-5 assumption as more media-driven than scouting-based and think he will be a late 1st/early 2nd pick. I could be wrong, but there's buzz (McShay, Berry, etc.) that he won't go as high as most think.

Quick question: Assuming Ashton Jeanty (Feldman Freak) puts on a show at his Pro Day, do you think there's any chance he could go to the Pats or Jags at 4 or 5? I'm really struggling with NE at 1.04 (assuming Carter and Hunter are gone), and wonder if the Pats might simply see Jeanty as the last remaining blue chip and just take him - position value be damned.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago - hide
Might need to throw Matt Stafford into the QB carousel mix. Lot of smoke about the Rams trading him and going for a soft reset. Stafford to the Steelers and Darnold to the Rams? 0 2

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@AKNorseman14

Was just speculation, not firm predictions. Hence "It's most likely that the Stafford stuff is negotiation tactics and he just resigns with the Rams. But it's fun to speculate just in case it's not."

Me and other commenters know most of our speculation will be off base. We're Just bouncing ideas off each other to get different perspectives and hone our mock drafts. That's what we do. You should try it. It's more interesting and productive than waiting until a transaction has already happened so you can safely tail-end a two week-old thread with clever beef like "this didn't age that well".

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago
Might need to throw Matt Stafford into the QB carousel mix. Lot of smoke about the Rams trading him and going for a soft reset. Stafford to the Steelers and Darnold to the Rams? 0 2

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago - hide
Unless the Titans sign Darnold, I don't see why they wouldn't just draft Cam Ward. You make a good point about their need for more draft picks, but they're just about as QB-desperate as any team. 0 0

The Champ • 148 Posts (31

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter Just to play devil's advocate:

Perhaps McMillan is comfortable with not running because he knows he's going relatively high, so there's no reason to risk anything. As for Sanders, sure, I could see him slipping. That's always possible. However, if Ward does go #1 to the Titans, it's hard for me to imagine Sanders not going #2 to the Browns. As Adam Schefter has pretty much guaranteed, they seem like they have to take a QB. And I'm just guessing that Andrew Berry is not going to be turned off by Sanders' alleged attitude problems.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago - hide
Might need to throw Matt Stafford into the QB carousel mix. Lot of smoke about the Rams trading him and going for a soft reset. Stafford to the Steelers and Darnold to the Rams? 0 2

	AKNorseman14 • 3 Posts (0) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter this didn't age that well. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago - hide
Unless the Titans sign Darnold, I don't see why they wouldn't just draft Cam Ward. You make a good point about their need for more draft picks, but they're just about as QB-desperate as any team. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@The Champ

I wouldn't be shocked if McMillan went late 1st/early 2nd. I have him as WR4 behind Golden, Burden and Egbuka. Not running a 40 at the Combine did him no favors as far as easing concerns about his speed/separation, and there's talk from his camp that he won't run a 40 at his Pro Day, either.

Shedeur Sanders is another guy that could slide. There's a ton of talk that a lot of teams are very annoyed with the way Sanders has handled the pre-draft process. Sanders seems to be approaching it as if a top-2 spot is guaranteed, when the reality is that he has no outstanding traits and might be behind Dart on some draft boards.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago - hide
Unless the Titans sign Darnold, I don't see why they wouldn't just draft Cam Ward. You make a good point about their need for more draft picks, but they're just about as QB-desperate as any team. 0 0

The Champ • 148 Posts (31

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter If they love him, then they should take him, yes. Ward is the favorite to go 1st, so if they stick and pick, it very well could be him.

I'm struggling with McMillan. In theory, you could make an argument for him at 6 (Raiders), 7 (Jets), 8 (Panthers), 9 (Saints), 11 (49ers), 12 (Cowboys), and even 13 (Dolphins). But I think those teams have more pressing needs, and if he doesn't go top-13, then I think there could be a bit of a fall. I could also see some teams preferring Golden or Egbuka as the WR1.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

Will Campbell makes sense at 1.04 as things currently stand, but NE/Campbell just feels like such a reach. There's much debate as to whether he'll be able to stick at LT in the NFL.

I gotta think NE will use some of that ample cap space to sign a FA LT like Alaric Jackson so they're not in a position to have to reach on draft day. If so - and assuming Carter and Hunter are off the board at 1.04 - things could get weird.

Could the Pats - who are rumored to love Carter - see Jalon Walker (similar skill set to Carter) as a fall-back option? Walker is #3 on Brugler's big board and #6 on Jeremiah's board. I'm surprised Walker is so rarely talked about as an option for NE.

My darkhorse at 1.04: Ashton Jeanty. Pound-for-pound the best prospect in the draft and would immediately give the offense an identity that's right up Vrabel's alley.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago - hide
Might need to throw Matt Stafford into the QB carousel mix. Lot of smoke about the Rams trading him and going for a soft reset. Stafford to the Steelers and Darnold to the Rams? 0 2

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@The Champ

It's most likely that the Stafford stuff is negotiation tactics and he just resigns with the Rams. But it's fun to speculate just in case it's not. Can't wait for the free agency dominoes to start falling so there's enough clarity to start pumping out some mock drafts.

Giants/Stafford doesn't make sense for either party. Pick 1.03 for Stafford obviously isn't going to happen. Stafford would only make sense for a team that's "a QB away". That's not the Giants and I'm not even sure if that's the Steelers.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago - hide
Might need to throw Matt Stafford into the QB carousel mix. Lot of smoke about the Rams trading him and going for a soft reset. Stafford to the Steelers and Darnold to the Rams? 0 2

The Champ • 148 Posts (31

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter There definitely seems to be real legs to the possibility of Stafford being dealt away, in looking at the reporting from this week. I still don't understand why he'd want to join the Giants at this late stage of his career, but maybe he's just looking for a strict money grab if he can get, say, another $100MM guaranteed to him, even though he's already earned $364MM in his career according to Spotrac. If the Rams can get a 1st Round pick for him, maybe they are just willing to continue this youth movement. Just feels like it would be against the way that McVay/Snead want to operate, to take a step back, but perhaps they aren't willing to overextend themselves on an aging QB and perhaps another team will give them the 1st that makes them accept a deal.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago - hide
Might need to throw Matt Stafford into the QB carousel mix. Lot of smoke about the Rams trading him and going for a soft reset. Stafford to the Steelers and Darnold to the Rams? 0 2

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@The Champ

You're right - it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. The Rams are a good team and Stafford isn't going to find a better situation.

From what I've read, it's mostly about the Rams wanting to get younger and cheaper on offense (as they did with the defense) while extending their window for contention. They're hesitant to commit to Stafford, who - with his age and injury history - could decline sharply at any time. It's about proactively avoiding getting themselves into a NYJ/Rodgers-type situation. It kinda makes sense from that angle, but like you said - who are the Rams going to find that's better than Stafford?

That's where Darnold comes in. Trading Stafford only makes sense if the Rams plan on signing Darnold, IMO. Darnold is still only 27 and mostly thrived in a McVay-tree system. I have my doubts whether Darnold will ever have another season as good as '24, but playing under McVay would likely give him the best chance. It just seems like the McVay system squeezes every ounce of potential outta QBs.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago - hide
Might need to throw Matt Stafford into the QB carousel mix. Lot of smoke about the Rams trading him and going for a soft reset. Stafford to the Steelers and Darnold to the Rams? 0 2

The Champ • 148 Posts (31

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter It would just seem strange to me if both sides weren't motivated to continue this "union", if you will. The Rams were a couple of plays away from beating Philly at their place in a snowstorm in the playoffs. They were the only team that really hung with them. Unless Stafford is just livid with them about wanting to move on from Kupp, but that doesn't make sense because Stafford, you know, wasn't exactly peppering Kupp with targets. They have a good OL, one of the best offensive scheming coaches in the league, and a DL that was ferocious come playoff time and should only continue to get better. It's not a perfect team, but where the hell is Stafford going to go and have a better shot? And ditto the Rams; they can't find someone better than Stafford. I guess stranger things have happened, but it just doesn't seem to add up to me.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

I'm seriously beginning to wonder about Ward and Sanders going in the top-5.

Lance Zierlein just released his prospect grades for Combine participants. I know that his word isn't gospel and that he has tweaked his grading a bit recently, but his grades are usually solidly predictive of a prospect's draft range. He gave Ward 6.39 and Sanders 6.30 - Ward's grade is the same as Bo Nix and Sanders' grade is Desmond Ridder/Malik Willis-level. I get that there's a QB tax on draft day, but top-5 for 6.3ish graded prospects is a serious reach.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago
@Cwillyrun1 Agree. Jeanty is a better value than McMillan or Burden at #6, IMO. I see so many mocks forcing one of those WRs to the Raiders, saying "the Raiders get their #1 receiver". For me, the Raiders already have their #1 receiver - he just happens to be a TE. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@Cwillyrun1

Unfortunately, I think the Jets will have interest in Cousins. There's already talk that they want a veteran, with Cousins at the top of the list and Fields a darkhorse. Cousins makes sense financially and schematically. Looks like another season of good defense/lousy offense, 5 to 8 wins and no playoffs. It just never ends.

Starting to think the Raiders will sign Darnold the second they have the opportunity. They have cap space to burn and neither Brady or Carroll are "rebuild"-type guys. Your TEN/Darnold idea has legs too, depending on how they feel about Ward/Sanders.

A trade for Carr appears to be the most logical move for the Steelers.

Russell Wilson to the Colts.

Still like Fields to the Giants.

Cousins to the Jets or Browns...starting to lean more toward the Jets.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago
@Cwillyrun1 Assuming the chalk Raiders/Darnold marriage happens, Jeanty to LV at 1.06 makes so much sense it hurts. He's exactly what Pete Carroll wants at RB. Jeanty is a freak athlete that will tear up the Combine, so I don't think it would be considered a reach by draft day. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@Cwillyrun1

The Titans signing Darnold is an intriguing scenario and not being talked about enough, probably because most assume TEN will just draft a QB 1st overall. That's why I'm eager to see what they do in free agency - pursuing Darnold could indicate pro scouts don't rate Ward/Sanders as highly as the media. We'll see. The Titans have a new GM so their approach to this offseason may not be the same as the last.

I think the "generational prospect" stuff was largely thrown out there by TEN to keep teams guessing as to what they'll do at #1. (Same reason they're talking up Will Levis when they know he sucks.) Teams at #1 do this every draft season. Carter and Hunter are blue chips, but I don't know about generational. They're not quite Micah Parsons and Champ Bailey, IMO.

I just read a report that the Steelers reached out to the Jaguars to inquire about a potential trade for Trevor Lawrence. That's obviously not going to happen, but kinda reaffirms my guess that PIT wants to make a big move at QB, whether it be Darnold, a trade for Derek Carr or an out-of-leftfield trade for Kyler Murray or something. Winning Super Bowls is the standard in PIT, and now they're overshadowed in their own state by the Eagles. A lateral move for Kirk Cousins or something is not going to cut it.

I agree with you on George Pickens. If I'm the Steelers, I'm trading him this offseason. That's not a guy you want to make a long-term investment in, especially for WR1 money. I'd rather get a Day Two pick for Pickens, sign Amari Cooper and draft Egbuka or Golden than wait another season for Pickens to grow up.

I don't think the Jets will trade Garrett Wilson. He's all we currently have in the WR room, and it's rumored that Wilson gave the Jets a "It's him or me" ultimatum regarding Aaron Rodgers. Wilson obviously won that battle. (Not that the Jets probably needed much urging.) We also have only $14 M effective cap space and have to start thinking about new contracts for Sauce, Garrett, AV-T, JJ II, so it's not like we can get in on the Tee Higgins bidding.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@The Champ

The fact that TEN is making it a point to talk up Levis, tell everyone that he'll be working with QB coach Jordan Palmer, etc, seems to me a pretty transparent attempt to muddy the waters and maintain leverage with that 1st pick. I have to think the Titans realize Levis isn't an NFL starter. His turnover/brain fart issues going back to college have only gotten worse in the pros, and he's almost 26 already. He is what he is.

What the Titans do during free agency will be telling. Let's say they aggressively try to sign Darnold...what does that say about Ward/Sanders? That would give credence to the reports that pro scouts don't even see them in a tier with Bo Nix as a prospect, and that media groupthink is the only reason they're anywhere near the top of the 1st round in mock drafts.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago
@The Champ I can't see Rodgers going to a rebuilding team or accepting anything less than a starting role. He should probably just retire before he has to do his podcasts in a wheelchair. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@The Champ

I forget which week it was (late season), but I watched an IND game shortly after Richardson said something along the lines of "I can barely walk". Richardson was sidelined, but the cameras caught him in street clothes before the game, pumping up his teammates and such. I swear he was running full gallop, doing that jumping back bump thing with teammates, etc. I'm no doctor, but I thought it was odd. Not exactly a gamer, I suspect. Colts management already seems pretty frustrated with him.

Also: He can't throw a rock into the ocean.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago
@WFDevTeam You just want Rodgers behind that Giants O-line so Vic Fangio can unleash hell on him twice a year. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago
@WFDevTeam That story would be a tragedy. Rodgers would be paralyzed within six weeks behind that saloon door of an O-line. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@WFDevTeam

Do you mean "cursed"? C'mon man, I'm trying not to think that way. I know you root for the green team that has its sh*t together like no other, but you don't have to rub it in.

But seriously, I think The Champ is right about Rodgers. I don't see why any team would want him at this point beyond name recognition.

Yeah, the Jets suck at developing QBs, but the Rodgers situation was different. There's no development with a 41-year old future HOFer - everything was set up to his liking so he could hit the ground running. The problem is - while Rodgers will probably be able to spin a pretty ball and dissect a defense in a nanosecond until he's 70 - he can't move at all anymore. He's a sitting duck back there and that isn't going to get better at his age. No mobility=non-starter in the modern game.

I don't think he has value as a bridge QB, either. The ego is too big and the game just always came too easily for him. The best bridge QBs/mentors are always humble, marginally talented vets like Jacoby Brissett for a reason. What advice is Rodgers going to give a young QB? "Hey man, forget about minicamp - what you need to do is hang out in the desert and do stupid hippie sh*t"

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago
@The Champ Not sure about the NYG/Jameis Winston match. I have to think a bridge QB that takes care of the ball will be prioritized after the Daniel Jones experience. Also not sure about Winston mentoring a young QB - especially a QB that needs to rein in his free-wheeling style like Ward. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@Cwillyrun1

Chip Kelly seems relatively adaptable as far as working with different styles of QB. (He's had success with Michael Vick, Nick Foles and every style in between.) But you're right - Kelly would likely prefer a QB with better mobility and ability to layer the middle of the field than Wilson. Gonna rethink that one. Wilson to the Colts, maybe?

I've heard the stories about Wilson sabotaging Carroll in SEA. I've also heard that they've since mended fences. Truth might be somewhere in the middle. Not sure. All I know for sure is that - so far - Tom Brady's hires seem more "big name" than guys that would be best for an earnest rebuilding job, which is what the Raiders really need. The Raiders are the current betting favorites to sign Darnold, and it makes perfect sense...another splash signing not best for the long term.

Christ, I pray you're wrong about NYJ/Wilson. I don't see it. The Jets have an all-time bridge QB in Tyrod Taylor that the locker room loves.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago
@The Champ 100% agree on Aaron Rodgers. In football years, he's old as dirt. His wheels are completely shot. He's a royal pain in the ass. The Jets had talent all over their depth chart, hired Rodgers' preferred OC, and let Rodgers basically hand-pick his receiving targets, yet he still didn't come close to making it work in NY. He's finished. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@Cwillyrun1

The Steelers absolutely can afford to sign Darnold. You predict TEN will sign Darnold, yet TEN ($44 M) currently has only $3 million more in cap space than PIT ($41 M), and less effective cap space than PIT. PIT will likely cut Larry Ogunjobi, Preston Smith and Cole Holcomb - freeing up another $27 million.

Also: I doubt that keeping Najee Harris around will be a top priority for PIT. He's a committee backfield grinder getting by on 1st round pedigree. PIT could easily find one of those to compliment Warren on the cheap.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

February mock drafts are just pissing in the wind unless they're guided by educated guesses as to how the QB carousel will play out.

PRE-DRAFT:

CLE/Kirk Cousins - Natural system fit and probably the only economically realistic non-rookie QB option for CLE.

NYG/Justin Fields - Schoen and Daboll's seats are white hot. They need an experienced QB capable of providing efficient play and some of the dual-threat elements that are foundational to Daboll's system. Fields makes sense as a (very) poor man's Josh Allen, and isn't much older than Ward/Sanders.

PIT/Sam Darnold - PIT may just re-sign Fields, but if they had faith in Fields then why didn't they reinsert him into the lineup when Russell Wilson was floundering?

Mike Tomlin is feeling heat. Stability is needed at QB and I think PIT will be aggressive as soon as the free agency market bell rings. Darnold is likely free agency fool's gold, but desperate times/desperate measures.

LV/Russell Wilson - Wilson is by no means the answer at QB for LV, but unless they sign Darnold, his familiarity with Carroll makes him a logical fall-back option to lessen the pressure to reach/trade for Shedeur Sanders on Draft Day.

Also: The fact that signing Wilson would be a crappy decision is baked into my guess here, as LV is currently in a cycle of making crappy decisions.

DRAFT DAY:

TEN/Cam Ward - Not buying the "we might roll with Will Levis" stuff for a second. Ward is obviously a reach at 1.1, but we've all seen the QB supply-and-demand movie before, and I don't think the "generational prospect" option that TEN floated exists in this draft.

NYJ/Shedeur Sanders - Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins aren't options for the Jets for obvious reasons, so I'm guessing NY will talk-up Tyrod Taylor pre-draft and target Sanders as QBOTF on draft day, maybe even in a trade up. New OC Tanner Engstrand had great success with a "point guard" QB in DET. Sanders' skill set fits.

POST-DRAFT POSSIBILITY:

IND/Derek Carr - Judging by Chris Ballard's comments, I think IND might already be done with Anthony Richardson.

It's too early to tell if this will be the offseason Saints GM Mickey Loomis finally commits to a proper rebuild, but I'm guessing it will.

Carr's contract situation ensures he'll remain in NO pre-June 1st, but a post-June 1st trade/release is possible. Carr makes sense as the next in that Rivers/Wentz/Ryan/Flacco line of washed-up short-term solutions in IND, while the Saints could accept Richardson in a trade for a one-year trial under Kellen Moore - which would likely end up with NO in position to draft Arch Manning in 2026.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

@Barnowl1952

I'm a Jets fan, so I feel your pain. You're talking to a guy who watches Super Bowl III* - a game played well before I was born - at least once a year just to remind myself that "it's possible".

All of CLE's current problems are ripple effect from the decision to go with Watson over Mayfield. Just a catastrophic move. Again, I feel your pain. The Jets put all their eggs in the Aaron Rodgers basket while Geno Smith and Sam Darnold go to Pro Bowls.

I hope for your sake that Garrett is just venting frustration - maybe as a loud-and-clear message to CLE management to turn things around ASAP - because Watson's contract makes a proper rebuild nearly impossible. Besides, Berry and Stefanski won't survive a rebuild. I'm guessing Garrett stays and CLE signs Kirk Cousins, but I could be wrong.

* - Super Bowl III was probably rigged and Matt Snell was easily MVP.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago

Saquan Barkley and Jalen Carter have been the best offensive and defensive players this postseason. They're both in a lather. However, I could see Mahomes and Chris Jones stepping up to remind everyone that they're still the best at their respective positions. As another commenter said: It's a toss up.

As with any toss up game, I'm looking for that one weakness that tips the scales. Some are predicting that the inexperience of Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean will be that exploitable weakness, but Vic Fangio consistently puts them in the best positions for success and both have performed like Pro Bowl vets all season. I don't see why that would stop now.

The Eagles are the more balanced team. There are no glaring weaknesses to exploit. I'm guessing that KC's ineffective run game and iffy O-line catches up to them. (Specifically the gross Carter vs. Caliendo mismatch and the not-exactly-nimble OT duo of Joe Thuney/Jawaan Taylor vs. the speed and bend of Josh Sweat and Nolan Smith.)

PHI 23 KC 21

No way I'm betting this game, as I could be underestimating Reid/Mahome's three-peat motivation. There's also the possibility that penalties/turnovers go KC's way and the game ends with a Kelce walk-off TD, immediately followed by his retirement announcement and proposal to Taylor Swift. (I'm only half-kidding.)

GL to those taking the plunge.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 1 month(s) ago - hide

PHI 23 KC 21

GL to those taking the plunge.

	WFDevTeam • 139 Posts (30 ) • 1 years 1 month(s) ago wfdevteam
@Mr. Bitter I didn't know the Eagles SOS was 30th. That and the flue going around means I think it can go anyway but I still think the Eagles get the job done here. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 2 month(s) ago
That Jalen Carter MVP bet is jumping out like crazy. I just don't see how the Chiefs will contain him. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 2 month(s) ago
@jhrjhr5 TEN will be playing in a $2.1 billion, publicly-paid new stadium in a few seasons. Will Levis or a retread like Darnold/Cousins/Wilson/Rodgers aren't going to put butts in those seats. They've gotta get their franchise QB and build hope for the future. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

@jhrjhr5

Ward/Sanders definitely aren't Caleb Williams/Jayden Daniels, but I think they're better than Pickett/Willis, Bortles/Manuel, etc. I don't think most teams will have a whole lotta true 1st-round grades on their boards in this draft, so the value of Ward/Sanders should spike accordingly - especially for teams desperate at QB. TEN/CLE/NYG all qualify as desperate, IMO, and there just aren't any viable non-draft options beside maybe Sam Darnold.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

WAS +6 Gut call here. All logic says PHI easily controls the trenches, and Carter and Barkley dominate in an easy Eagles victory...but WAS has been proving me wrong all season. Also, I don't fully trust Sirianni/Hurts in this spot. WAS comes up one miracle short of the SB but cover. PHI 31 WAS 26

KC -2 Good-guy Josh Allen finally beating the villainous Chiefs is a solid narrative, but there is no more profitable narrative than KC in the SB a win away from a three-peat. Big game from Xavier Worthy, and Mahomes outperforms Allen. KC 27 BUF 23

No bets. Just gonna sit back and enjoy. GL to all.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

1. TEN - EDGE Abdul Carter

2. CLE - CB/WR Travis Hunter

3. NYG - QB Cam Ward

4. NE - RB Ashton Jeanty

5. JAX - DT Mason Graham

6. LV - CB Will Johnson

7. NYJ - TE Tyler Warren

8. CAR - EDGE Mykel Williams

9. NO - QB Shedeur Sanders

10. CHI - G Tyler Booker

11. SF - DT Kenneth Grant

12. DAL - LB Jalon Walker

13. MIA - OT/G Will Campbell

14. IND - DB Jahdae Barron

15. ATL - EDGE James Pearce Jr.

16. ARI - OT/G Kelvin Banks Jr.

17. CIN - S Malaki Starks

18. SEA - DL Jordan Burch

19. TB - LB Jihaad Campbell

20. DEN - TE Colston Loveland

21. PIT - DE Shemar Stewart

22. LAC - DE Nic Scourton

23. GB - CB Trey Amos

24. MIN - CB Shavon Revel Jr.

25. HOU - WR Matthew Golden

26. LAR - LB Carson Schwesinger

27. BAL - OT Josh Simmons

28. DET - OT/G Armand Membou

29. WAS - OT/G Josh Conerly Jr.

30. BUF - S Xavier Watts

31. PHI - G/OT Donovan Jackson

32. KC - DT Derrick Harmon

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 2 month(s) ago
@Barnowl1952 What is Cleveland's option? Kirk Cousins?? The Browns have to keep swinging until they connect on a QB. Otherwise, they'll just remain in NFL purgatory. Any drama created by selecting Sanders or Ward would be a walk in the park compared to the drama that was unleashed by the Deshaun Watson acquisition. I mean, this is the Jimmy Haslam Browns we're talking about. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 2 month(s) ago
Mike Green just measured 6-3/236 at the Senior Bowl after commonly being listed around 6-4/250. He also only has 32.14" arms and 8.12" hands. Not sure about the 1st round for Green.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 2 month(s) ago
0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 2 month(s) ago
Christian Benford downgraded to DNP today. I think BUF is in trouble. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 2 month(s) ago - hide
Christian Benford downgraded to DNP today. I think BUF is in trouble. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 2 month(s) ago
UPDATE: Benford apparently traveled with the team to KC. Not 100% on this, but I don't think a concussed player can travel unless they've already been cleared by an independent neurologist. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

@Baird

Good stuff. Agree with you on PHI - they're built to win in the playoffs. The Nakobe Dean injury doesn't even worry me too much, as Oren Burks is a solid, playoff-tested backup that only needs to hold down the fort on run downs. The versatility of Baun and DeJean also fills in a lot of blanks in the middle of the field.

The Sam Cosmi injury is a killer. It takes the WAS O-line from "iffy" to "weakness" at the worst possible time.

Honestly, the only way I see WAS winning is if Hurts lays an egg and Daniels has an even higher level in him...a transformative level that allows him to just drag a mediocre cast to a championship.

As for BUF/KC, the Bills definitely have the superior run game/O-line. (Pacheco came back too early for KC. He's not right at all.) KC will have to pass to beat BUF. While Kelce and Worthy should have no problems getting loose in the middle of the field, I wonder if KC's O-line will hold up against BUF pass-pressure that's running hot.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

@Baird

Death are great. Keep On Knocking is a gem. Death...Stooges...MC5...Bob Seger System...lotta good stuff was coming outta Motown back in the day.

I always found it surprising that it was McCartney - and not Lennon - who wrote Helter Skelter. John seemed the more piss 'n' vinegar-type of the two. Helter Skelter was quite the departure for Paul; most of his tunes had that crooner, even vaudevillian vibe. Still, I think Helter Skelter's sound is more heavy than punk.

For me, the earliest and most obvious foreshadowing to the late '70s punk sound and spirit was My Generation ('65). Aggressive, super-loud, super-simple riff...manic drumming...snotty, kinda nihilistic lyrics...even purposely stuttering vocals to add another layer of offensiveness.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

@testcharacter09162021

Internet meme humor to "fascist!" is quite the extrapolation. May want to tone the hysterics down - it doesn't seem to help on Election Day.

Woody Guthrie - aside from being an unbearably boring musician - was an unabashed Stalinist. The same Joseph Stalin whose kill count makes every historic fascist look like a rank amateur.

If you want an actual anti-fascist band with some giddyup, I recommend Stiff Little Fingers.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 2 month(s) ago
@Demondlee1906@gmail.com Good points here. Middle-of-the-field coverage is a weakness for BUF, especially if Rapp can't go. Bernard, Milano and D. Williams all have PFF coverage grades below 40.0 and the safety position is a problem. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

@DoctorJ

I gotta agree with your skepticism. I've always chalked up conspiratorial NFL takes to sour grapes over a team's success, but it's becoming increasingly difficult to ignore or explain away the kid gloves treatment KC gets from the refs in the playoffs.

The Mahomes/RTP calls are ridiculous. I've heard the "they're just hyper-vigilant about protecting QBs" argument, but I don't know if I fully buy it. During the last few playoff seasons, KC opponents have drawn 5 RTP penalties. The Chiefs have drawn zero. Mahomes automatically gets the flag when he is obviously baiting and barely grazed by tacklers. Every time. He knows he's getting that flag. Yet a helpless Jared Goff takes a vicious shot square in the facemask in the immediate vicinity of two refs and...nothing. I can only speculate whether it's happening consciously or subconsciously, but the refs favor Mahomes.

The penalty timing and type is suspect, too. Drive-extending and non-reviewable almost every time. Then there's there's the absurdly generous spots for KC...short spot for opponents...regular "blind eye" no-calls (KC offsides on HOU FG attempt that everyone in the stadium saw but the refs, etc.)...it almost has to be factored into handicapping a KC game at this point.

BAL or KC vs. PHI has been my Super Bowl pick for a few months now, but even if I liked BUF, I don't think I could pull the trigger with the way KC games are getting called.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 2 month(s) ago - hide
For all my statistical digging, I overlooked the simple fact that the Lamar Jackson-era Ravens can't help but shoot themselves in the foot in the playoffs. Congrats on a great week, Walt. Enjoy the inevitable Chiefs three-peat brought to you by State Farm, Pfizer and playoff referees. 1 0

	WFDevTeam • 139 Posts (30 ) • 1 years 2 month(s) ago wfdevteam
@Mr. Bitter Good on you to comment on hear. In the recap it didn't sound like Walt was gloating too much about it. That he acknowledged the Ravens lost it as much as the Bills won it. Good stuff. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 2 month(s) ago
For all my statistical digging, I overlooked the simple fact that the Lamar Jackson-era Ravens can't help but shoot themselves in the foot in the playoffs. Congrats on a great week, Walt. Enjoy the inevitable Chiefs three-peat brought to you by State Farm, Pfizer and playoff referees. 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 2 month(s) ago
AFC Championship Prediction: Xavier Worthy gets loose for 100+ yards and 2 TDs. The entire fourth quarter will be Romo and Nantz talking about what a mistake it was for BUF to let KC move up in the draft for Worthy. 1 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

@Karensman

Thanks. The Rams and Ravens have been good to me recently. (Although this is my stop on the Rams.)

Full disclosure: You'll almost never see me delve into prop bets, O/Us, teasers and such, and that's by design.

The job I've worked at for close to a decade now has been doing a weekly NFL SU picks pool since I've been there. I basically won the pool every week for the first few years of my employment, and this was noticed by the owner - a wealthy, old-school ponies guy that was only a casual football fan but always has an eye open for action. He pulled me aside and proposed a money man/idea man arrangement where all I had to do was give him my weekly NFL picks ATS weighted by confidence, let him do his thing, and get my cut. No teasing, no props action, just straight down the list ATS. Anything else has to be on my dime. He's okay with eating some loss as long as it's a profitable venture overall. However, he keeps track of my team-by-team record and alerts me when a pattern suggests I'm not reading a team correctly. Forces me to constantly reevaluate teams, and has taught me that formulas like Walt's Group A/Group B stuff are nearly useless, as it's almost never about where a team is from - it's where a team is at. Especially this time of year.

I don't think Jerks of the Week, the TV Commentators shtick, etc, will be going anywhere any time soon. Hate to play amateur psychologist, but Walt is obviously a guy who is very resistant to change. Not a big deal because we're all like that to some degree, but his stubbornness sometimes gets him in trouble when handicapping. His current "Ravens are overrated" ride is a perfect example. He still talks about BAL as if they're the same team from a few months ago that was enduring the rookie growing pains of Roger Rosengarten and Nate Wiggins (now emerging stars), Justin Tucker's yips, and still starting Eddie Jackson and Marcus Williams at safety. Instead of reevaluating and adjusting accordingly, he'll just go down with the ship.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

BAL is my only bet this weekend, but I have a nagging feeling I'm leaving $$ on the table by laying off HOU.

Hate this matchup for the Chiefs. Three-peat pressure, while HOU is playing with house money. The HOU defense is running hot, and the state of the KC O-line is giving me SB 55 vibes.

Thuney starting at LT seems more an indictment of D.J. Humphries than absolute confidence in Thuney. Even when playing LT, Thuney plays like a guard - immediate engagement and getting up in those pads, with little traditional kickstep action to be seen. Great guard, but he needs help on the edge. Anderson and Hunter could be a serious problem for Mahomes.

Another serious problem is Mike Caliendo at LG. He sucks. Just makes me even less confident in a KC run game that has looked meh anyway. (Pacheco is not right. Maybe the extended layoff helps him?) Especially against a HOU run defense that is #2 in adjusted line yards and top-10 when Fatukasi and Al-Shaair are healthy.

That said, KC is at home in 20 degree conditions vs. a dome team. With Jaylen Watson back the KC defense could pitch a shutout.

For those less afraid than me and are betting HOU, I salute you. GL to all.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

"Zay Flowers is doubtful. Yet, the Ravens are still favored because of the mania surrounding this team."

During Flowers' career, BAL is 13-0 SU (including 2-0 SU in the playoffs) in games in which Flowers was inactive or targeted less than 5 times. Just more two-TE sets, more targets for Bateman, Likely and Hill, and more Ricard/6 OL jumbo sets. (Smallish BUF defense ranked 31st vs. jumbo sets, BTW.)

The Ravens aren't favored because of mania. The Ravens are favored because they are a matchup nightmare for the Bills and can beat you in a dozen different ways right now.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

"I like both Buffalo outside receivers against Baltimore's crappy cornerbacks"

I get that this statement is likely more double-down and feather-ruffling than anything else at this point, but - again - it's wrong.

If you want to say that Brandon Stephens is crappy, fair enough. Stephens has allowed nearly 1,000 yards and 5 TDs in coverage. He cannot get his head around on deep shots for the life of him. What I wanna know is this: Do you think Nate Wiggins is crappy? If so, you haven't payed attention since roughly midseason.

BAL's rising defensive EPA and #1 EPA vs. the pass since Week 11 despite Stephens' struggles is largely due to a pronounced increase in top-end help from Kyle Hamilton on Stephens' side to mitigate damage. Why has BAL been able to employ this tactic? Because Nate Wiggins is emerging as a lockdown boundary corner on the other side.

Following some very normal early-rookie season hiccups and some yanking in and out of the lineup, Wiggins has fully blossomed since mideason.

Wiggins has been thrown at 67 times, and has allowed a 59.7 passer rating.
Since Week 12, Wiggins has settled in as a 90% snap share starter after typically playing 30-60% in the early season.
Wiggins' TD allowed last week vs. PIT was his first of the season. He has as many TD scored as TD allowed.
Wiggins is #1 in the NFL in target separation allowed, #5 in catch rate allowed, #6 in passer rating allowed, and #16 in pass breakups.
Wiggins hasn't allowed more than 3 catches or 49 yards since Week 13, despite games where he shadowed A.J. Brown, Malik Nabers and Nico Collins.

If you want to say something along the lines of "Wiggins' inexperience is bound to catch up to him in the postseason", I could kinda buy that. But to say he's currently a crappy CB is objectively wrong.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

@WFDevTeam

Can only speak for myself, but here's what I think:

The "BAL's secondary is weak" angle is incorrect. Has been for a while. Boundary CB Brandon Stephens alone is the weak link - maybe on the entire team. Walt's "The Bills are better than the Ravens" take - while defiantly bold - is untrue. It's untrue by every offensive and defensive metric, and it's untrue if you simply look at the roster talent position-by-position. And this is all before factoring in John Harbaugh's historic road playoff record (#1 in road playoff wins and road playoff win % in NFL history), BUF's recent trouble TCB at home in the divisional round, and the fact that BUF's run-funnel, light box defensive scheme is the exact opposite of what you want to contain Jackson/Henry. The Ravens are an awful schematic matchup for the Bills defense and it's hardly mentioned in his writeup because he's too busy with Group A/Group B hocus pocus.

Walt's BUF>BAL play is largely based on that Group A/Group B stuff - which is inherently flawed because what teams are good on any given week is totally fluid, and it's too easy to leave out pertinent facts that don't fit your argument. (Such as the fact that BAL is 8-3 against playoff teams and would be 10-1 had it not been for Justin Tucker missing three kicks in two of those games. I can go a step further in that "what if" game: BAL would have entered the playoffs 15-2 had Tucker just been his usually reliable self and had Kyle Hamilton not dropped a sure game-ending Jameis Winston INT that hit him between the numbers vs. CLE back in October.)

Sure, Walt could eventually be right about a BAL opponent winning by targeting and burning Stephens, but that only happens if Stephens is matched up against a reliable boundary deep threat. BUF is actually an easier matchup for Stevens than PIT in that regard because Wilson-to-Pickens deep stuff is largely how PIT won through the air, whereas BUF is more about efficient over-the-middle feeds to Shakir/Samuel/TEs and a healthy dose of Superman stuff from Josh Allen. (This actually plays right into the R. Smith/Humphrey/Hamilton strength of BAL's defense.) Basically, you're banking on Keon Coleman and/or Mack Hollins to step up and give Stephens the business. Possible, but a very shaky bet.

One also has to assume that opponent controls the BAL ground game, which even the best run defenses haven't been able to do all season. Like, not at all. PIT wasn't the team to do it, and neither is BUF. Milano's presence won't change that. Milano is obviously compromised and has been mostly awful since his return. His 56.6 PFF run D grade is 148th/189 LBs, and his 48.0 overall LB grade is 161st/189 LBs, and all that is after his 86.3 grade vs. DEN - a game where Milano's role was almost purely to spy Bo Nix. If BUF uses Milano to spy Lamar Jackson, Jackson is going to break Milano's ankles and rush for 100 yards.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 2 month(s) ago
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	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 2 month(s) ago
@lewseyrich Oops. Misread and feeling defensive. Apologies. Yeah, agree about the commentators stuff. At this point it's just done out of tradition and goes unread. It's this site's equivalent of a holiday fruitcake. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

@lewseyrich

Eh, it's still a great site. 90% of other sites have a team of prognosticators; Walt has been flying solo on handicapping for two decades. It's impressive if only for the endurance.

Walt's picks are usually solid and he's often out ahead of a lot of angles many other prognosticators miss. He's just lost in the labyrinth of Group A/Group B minutiae right now and has a stubborn blind spot with the Ravens. (These spells are bound to happen when a guy is basically in the midst of a cruel, two decade long, one-man sociology experiment.) His CFB picks have been money in the bank this season, and Charlie Campbell's annual NFL Draft content/predictions are eerily accurate.

Being active in comment sections (beyond just jumping in one time to get your kicks in after a bad bet) is part of supporting a site, and I would like to think I fold a few substantial angles into my weekly dross, as do other core commentors. Hell, we've been trying to get through to Walt about the terrible blunder he's making with Baltimore with stats and angles for weeks...and we do it before the games start.

"...Pleeeeease spend more time on handicapping..."

(Mentally read that part with a kinda gay lisp...Sorry, couldn't help it.)

Thanks, but I don't think I could possibly spend any more time handicapping. Getting okay at it, too. Went summer vacation money-heavy on BAL and LAR last week. Feels good.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

"...there's an inexplicable mania surrounding the Ravens..."

This is like saying there was an inexplicable mania surrounding the '99 Greatest Show On Turf Rams. The '24 Ravens are 2nd only to those '99 Rams in offensive EPA in the SB era.

People are bedazzled by Henry because they should be. He's arguably the best post-season RB in history and is running possessed. He's been a steamroller the entire season, even against PHI and TB with Vea. His Wildcard performance had nothing to do with a lack of effort by PIT - what you witnessed was a defense that got it's soul crushed by Henry and a dominant BAL O-line.

Your BUF pick is built off the assumption that BUF will contain Henry this time around, just as you assumed PIT would contain Henry in your picks last week. Good luck with that.

BUF's run defense is...just okay? (4.5 YPRA). BAL's run defense is the best in the NFL by a wide margin.

BUF's rushing attack is good. BAL's rushing attack is historically elite.

Henry is currently running with a "IF YOU GET IN MY WAY I'LL F*CKING KILL YOU" determination. Now is his time to get a ring. This is '82 playoffs John Riggins-type stuff.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

@WFDevTeam

It's all in good fun. Even the best prognosticators are lucky to turn a profit ATS. Walt has put his thoughts and predictions on every game out there for like two decades, knowing there will be whiffs and ensuing ridicule. That takes balls. What really irritates me are the pile-jumpers that never engage beforehand but are always there to call out when someone is wrong after the fact. Like, if you can do better then let's hear it, Jimmy the Greek.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

@WFDevTeam

I dunno - I think it's more playfully gloating than bitter.

I've also been waiting a long time for the opportunity to shoehorn my favorite Sopranos line into a comment. Had to go for it.

I'm looking forward to his Week 20 picks to see how far off my parody is. I predict there will be suggestion that the 4th-down play would have somehow made a difference, how BAL is overrated and how bad their secondary is.

I also predict BAL will beat BUF. The Ravens are perfectly designed to win on the road in the playoffs.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

@broncoselway

You just reveal your own ignorance.

PIT was the right side. It was a bad beat. BAL's win had nothing to do with being at home, being more talented at every position, being better-coached or having a historically brutalizing ground game that had PIT LBs and DBs literally running away from contact and crushed what remained of PIT's spirit before halftime.

If you knew anything about football, you'd know that the rules state that if you go for it on 4th-down, you get to switch QBs with the opposing team. If PIT would have gone for it on 4th-down at their own 29-yard line in the 2nd quarter instead of stupidly punting it away, Lamar Jackson would have become PIT's QB, and the defense would have suddenly been able to stop Derrick Henry from running at will. So you see, it's not that BAL was the better team - the Steelers just screwed themselves with that decision.

The Jenna Jameson Effect also came into play in this game. I wouldn't Google it at work, but let's just say it has something to do with teams being more comfortable on top than behind. You see, PIT does much better when they have more points than the other team, so it's not that BAL was better than PIT, it's just that the Ravens wouldn't stop scoring points and let PIT get in their comfort zone. There was no way to see this coming, except for the facts that PIT had scored zero 1st-quarter points in their last 5 playoff games and BAL is the much, much better team. But I would like to think it had more to do with my bad luck and that God hates me. Also, I had the flu and was tired from staying up with the kids.

You're probably stupid enough to think the overrated Ravens and their practice squad secondary have any chance vs. the Bills next week. Sure, BAL ran for 271 yards and beat BUF 35-10 earlier in the season, but Jupiter wasn't aligned with Mars so DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver were distracted.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

LAC -2.5 With Denzel Perryman's status still up in the air, I'll assume that both teams will be able to establish serviceable ground games and trade some early-game body blows, so the key questions here are which QB will face more pressure and which defense will be able to contain the opposing offense's best target as the game unfolds. I give the Chargers the advantage at both.

HOU's defensive scheme is predicated on consistent edge pressure from Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. The Chargers are equipt like no other AFC playoff team to contain them with Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. Conversely, Bosa and Mack will be taking turns on outmatched HOU RT Blake Fisher.

With a relatively clean pocket, Herbert will chisel away at the HOU defense with Ladd McConkey. Derek Stingley's shadow duties begin and end along the boundary, so McConkey will very likely see slot coverage from some combination of Myles Bryant, Jeff Okudah and Eric Murray. This just screams 11/120/2 for McConkey. On the flip side, the Chargers will be able to focus completely on containing Nico Collins, and should be successful, just as that historically bad BAL secondary was in Week 17. HOU's only other viable target is Dalton Schultz, and he has flat-out sucked all season. I don't see why he would stop sucking now, especially matched up against two of the NFL's highest-graded TE-erasers in Daiyan Henley and Derwin James.

I'm fairly confident the Chargers TCB (especially if Perryman plays), but since this is LA's first playoff appearance under a new regime (often a bad spot ATS, especially as a road favorite), I'll be laying off this game.

BAL -9.5 Rashod Bateman fully breaks out with 8/120/1, George Pickens melts down, and the Ravens beat the piss out of the Steelers. I'm betting every dime in the bank and a pinkie finger without hesitation. For more details, scroll down.

GL to all

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 2 month(s) ago
@DoctorJ Hey, that hurts. I thumbed-up your comment. I was just busting balls with the crazy thing. Like I said - unreliable. 1 catch for zero yards vs. the Bengals. Just ask any Steelers fan what they think of George Pickens. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

No mention of rookie RG Mason McCormick's broken hand?

McCormick isn't Chris Lindstrom or anything, but he's been a godsend through the Fautanu, Daniels and Seaumalo injuries. The PIT O-line is mediocre, with fragile chemistry and crappy depth. They absolutely cannot lose another starter right now.

PIT beat writers seem confident McCormick will be OUT. They're saying the surprise release of WR Scotty Miller yesterday was almost certainly to activate OT Calvin Anderson to replace the depth lost with Spencer Anderson moving in at RG for McCormick. Anderson was horrid in his three games before being benched earlier this season.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

The last 17 double-digit playoff home favorites are 16-1 SU and 14-3 ATS. They average 33.5 PPG.

Which WR led the NFL with a 77.3% separation rate and has 4 TDs in his last 4 games? Rashod Bateman. Which secondary allows the highest separation rate, the most receiving yards and 7th-most TDs p/game to outside WRs? The Pittsburgh secondary.

Which "washed" TE has a TD in six straight games and has a league-leading average of 2.14 YPRR against single-high coverage? Mark Andrews. Which secondary uses single-high coverage at the highest rate? The Pittsburgh secondary.

Isaiah Likely averages 1.77 YPRR against single-high coverage and has already went for 7/104/1 vs. PIT this season. Top-graded 3rd-down back Justice Hill and Nelson Agholor are back from injury this week. Lamar Jackson is #1 in QB EPA. Derrick Henry is #1 in RB EPA. The BAL O-line is ranked #1 in run and pass blocking, and #2 in Win Block % (DEN #1).

But no Zay Flowers for a week. How will the Ravens possibly score??

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 2 month(s) ago
@woo hoo More LAR motivation: McVay has reportedly put printed screen shots in the Rams locker room of Dan Campbell telling Kevin O'Connell "I'll see you in two weeks". 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 2 month(s) ago
@DoctorJ Wouldn't count on Freiermuth doing much. In his two games vs. BAL this season, he has a combined 5 catches for 30 yards. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

The Steelers have lost 5 straight playoff games with their opponents scoring an average of 40.4 PPG.

They've been outscored 66-0 in the first quarter of those games.

The Steelers haven't scored more than 17 points in over a month.

The Ravens have scored at least 30 points in 11 of the past 14 weeks.

Mentioned often: Steelers have won 8 of last 10 vs. BAL.

Not mentioned as often: Lamar Jackson was unavailable for 6 of those 10 games.

Per PFF, 138 CBs have played 100 or more coverage snaps this season.

Cam Sutton is ranked 128th.

Donte Jackson is ranked 132nd.

Of 223 CBs, Joey Porter Jr. (55.0) is PFF's 160th-ranked in overall grade.

Brandon Stephens's PFF grade of 55.8 is the lowest by 15 points in the BAL secondary. (Wiggins 70.7, A. Washington 80.3, Humphrey 81.0, Hamilton 90.1)

Stephens would be the highest graded PIT CB.

But let's talk about BAL's awful secondary.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago - hide

The Steelers have lost 5 straight playoff games with their opponents scoring an average of 40.4 PPG.

They've been outscored 66-0 in the first quarter of those games.

The Steelers haven't scored more than 17 points in over a month.

The Ravens have scored at least 30 points in 11 of the past 14 weeks.

Mentioned often: Steelers have won 8 of last 10 vs. BAL.

Not mentioned as often: Lamar Jackson was unavailable for 6 of those 10 games.

Per PFF, 138 CBs have played 100 or more coverage snaps this season.

Cam Sutton is ranked 128th.

Donte Jackson is ranked 132nd.

Of 223 CBs, Joey Porter Jr. (55.0) is PFF's 160th-ranked in overall grade.

Brandon Stephens's PFF grade of 55.8 is the lowest by 15 points in the BAL secondary. (Wiggins 70.7, A. Washington 80.3, Humphrey 81.0, Hamilton 90.1)

Stephens would be the highest graded PIT CB.

But let's talk about BAL's awful secondary.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 2 month(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Wouldn't count on Freiermuth doing much. In his two matchups vs. BAL this season, he has a combined 5 receptions for 30 yards.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

Do you think CLE would still draft Ward at 1.2 if the rumored Stefanski/Cousins reunion comes to fruition? Even if CLE acquires Cousins, I would still consider QB to be CLE's greatest need without hesitation.

Interesting to see Kenneth Grant flirting with the top 10 in your mock. Seems like many are down on him, and I'm not sure why. Athletic freak that should kill at the Combine.

Good to see a NoHeroes mock so early in the process. Look forward to more.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

@woo hoo

I think Tomlin is a very good coach. He just doesn't have the horses to hang with BAL, regardless of how much his players may like him. These are two teams going in opposite directions.

No defense can stop the BAL offense right now - Flowers or no Flowers. The '24 BAL offense is 2nd-best EPA all-time behind only the '99 Greatest Show On Turf Rams. BAL is 1st in EPA/pass and EPA/rush, while the defense has been 1st in EPA/pass and #1 in total EPA from weeks 11-18. The Ravens are the most complete team in the NFL by every metric, and what few early-season weaknesses they had are now strengths.

Tomlin squeezed what he could from Russell Wilson, but we all kinda knew reality would set in as far as that goes. I doubt Wilson will just be able to turn that midseason form back on against a focused BAL team that is peaking in all three phases. Pat Freiermuth isn't enough. There's a reason Tomlin is hinting at getting Justin Fields more involved in this game. The Wilson magic has run it's course and isn't returning.

Pickens is petulant and unreliable. We're talking about a WR1 with more career unsportsmanlike conduct penalties and fumbles than TDs. I seriously think he's more likely to get frustrated and disqualified than get loose in this matchup. The BAL secondary has been throwing blankets on WR1s much better than Pickens since Week 11.

John Harbaugh teams are rarely caught off guard, and I can't see that happening in this spot. Not with the way last season ended vs. KC. The Steelers are likely walking into a buzzsaw, and Vegas knows it.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 2 month(s) ago
@DoctorJ You must be crazy. Pickens is a clutch late-season and playoffs performer. I mean, have you already forgotten his monster 11 TGT/5 REC/50 YD/0 TD/1 LOST FMB performance in PIT's 31-17 loss to BUF in last season's WC? 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

"Pickens over 55.5 receiving yards...Pickens will bounce back in an easy matchup"

This feels familiar...

From Week 17 picks:

"I believe the Ravens are an overrated team because of their poor pass defense, and that poor pass defense could allow the Texans to achieve a back-door cover if needed...Nico Collins over 92.5 receiving yards. Collins is a beast who will be force fed against Baltimore's poor secondary"

Nico Collins was the most expensive player on your DFS contest slate Week 17, which was understandable since he was going up against such an awful secondary. It's not like he was going up against a pass defense that features two All-Pros and has been rated first in the NFL since Week 11 or something.

Final: BAL 31 HOU 2

Nico Collins: 3/59/0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 2 month(s) ago

"Ravens-Steelers games are almost always close, and now Baltimore may be the team missing it's No. 1 receiver"

In your analysis of the PIT/BAL matchup, this is the only sentence where I thought, "fair enough". Every other angle is either 7 weeks outdated or the result of getting lost in the labyrinth of that Group A/Group B thought experiment.

I believe in being thorough, so I don't find the Group A/Group B tangents as ridiculous as some commenters, but when you start saying stuff like "PIT could have kept it closer if Russell Wilson hadn't fumbled near the GL, thrown that pick-6, etc", you're officially in "can't see the forest for the trees" territory.

Lost in your analysis are the simple facts that Wilson is regressing badly and PIT is a team in collapse. Not sure how this is being missed, as late-season lulls and quick playoff exits are nothing new for the Tomlin Steelers. Meanwhile, the Ravens - a team built for January football like no other - is peaking in all three phases at just the right time, as John Harbaugh teams often do.

"Pickens will be available this time, which is huge because it allows the Steelers to exploit Baltimore's biggest weakness, which is the secondary"

I have tried to get through to Private Pyle, but I have failed.

Me and some other commenters have tried to correct you on your "Ravens awful secondary" angle, but that outdated narrative just continues to roll along for some reason, so I'll just leave some stuff here:

Since Week 11 - when Marlon Humphrey returned to health and took over the roaming slot CB role from Kyle Hamilton, with Hamilton replacing the completely washed Marcus Williams at FS, and Ar'Darius Washington taking on the full-time SS role - the Ravens have allowed the league's fewest points and fewest net yards p/game.
Since Week 11, the BAL secondary has allowed an NFL-low passer rating of 75.5 and NFL-low EPA p/dropback.
Since Week 11, BAL's secondary is PFF's highest-graded. Humphrey is the highest graded CB, and Hamilton the 2nd-highest graded S. Both are Pro-Bowlers and All-Pro considerations.
Since Week 11, Wiggins is the 2nd-highest graded rookie CB. He's steadily improved with increasing PT, blossoming from an early-season rotational liability into a 92% snap count corner that blankets Malik Nabers and is a pick-6 threat QBs are learning to avoid.
Since Week 11, Brandon Stephens (the only member of the secondary that can even be considered a "weakness") has been targeted the 5th-most among NFL CBs, and he's held up admirably. His 67.7% catch rate allowed is better than more heralded CBs like Pat Surtain and Jalen Ramsey.

You'll argue that BAL's defensive improvement has come against bad teams, but HOU - a team that you are currently suggesting could upset the Chargers and make an '08 Cardinals-type SB run - was just held to zero points by the BAL defense.

But "Pickens will be available this time".

Yeah, and?

Like most things in PIT right now, the Wilson-to-Pickens connection is clearly broken. Pickens hasn't had more than 4 catches or 74 yards in a game since mid-November, and is coming off a miserable goose egg performance. Most importantly: Pickens is the kind of player that - when the going gets tough - is more likely to drop two passes, have a meltdown and get ejected than step up with a huge performance. It's who he is. Is Pickens really the guy you want as a foundational angle to your Pick of The Month?

"The Steelers should be better against the run than that. They'll do a better job of limiting Henry"

Are you sure about that?

PIT gave up 220 rushing yards to BAL two weeks ago. What's changed? Other than Mike Tomlin now hinting at getting Justin Fields in there to try to get something going. (Which would likely just mean even more PIT TOs and BAL clock-killing ground dominance.)

The facts are that PIT has been leaky against the run recently and are going up against a historically dominant BAL rushing attack that has routinely gashed top-10 run defenses this season (271 yards vs. BUF, 249 vs. TB with Vea, 166 vs. PHI, etc).

BAL doesn't really have a weakness right now. Everything is falling into place at the right time. I mean, even Justin Tucker, who missed 8 FGs and 2 XPs before BAL's bye week, hasn't missed a kick since.

BAL 35 PIT 20

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 3 month(s) ago
The Rams will beat the Vikings in the WC round. 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 3 month(s) ago
@Barnowl1952 Beck and Ewers seem like future NFL backups. Just feels like Day 2 stuff like Colt McCoy, Eric Zeier, Deshone Kizer, Cody Kessler, etc, all over again. If there's any chance Ward or Sanders can develop into a franchise QB, CLE has to choose one. Otherwise, the organization will just continue spinning it's wheels. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

Another final Sunday of the regular season. As with tradition, I've already donned the black armband and had a moment of silence. The buffalo wings and chili fries are en route.

Here's what I got on early games:

ATL -7.5 NO BET I was leaning CAR here, as the Panthers have shown periodic spunk under Canales, and the possibility of a blowout in TB could render ATL deflated by the late-3rd quarter. Then I saw CAR's injury report.

With Josey Jewell and Jaycee Horn ruled OUT, ATL could easily name their score against CAR's practice squad D. With no Hubbard and injuries on the right side of the O-line, peppering Thielen with a million targets probably won't be enough to keep up. Still, I'm not touching this one.

DAL +7 LIGHT Was gonna pass here, then the line moved from 4.5 to 7.

Weird stuff happens in this rivalry. Much more importantly, I think WAS is overrated. Have for a while. Hail Marys...Hurts going down early...WAS has been very lucky and are a deceiving 11-5, IMO.

WAS has nothing but vague seeding to play for, and avoiding PHI may (wrongly) be of little concern having just defeated them. Parsons vs. that banged-up O-line...no Lattimore (ever?)...I wouldn't be shocked if DAL wins SU.

CHI +10 NO BET As with WAS, I think seeding motivation will be minimal - at best - for GB. On the road and with zero pressure in a meaningless game, my hunch is we finally see Caleb Williams and those WRs do enough damage for the backdoor cover. However, the CHI run defense is such crap that GB's backup RBs could simply control the game start-to-finish. The "but those CHI WRs!/backdoor" logic has burned me all year, so I'm laying off.

JAX +3.5 NO BET ATS/LIGHT ON OVER I was sniffing around an IND fade until Josh Hines-Allen was ruled OUT. The IND defense has totally packed it in. I mean, Drew Lock?? That sin is unforgivable.

Brian Thomas Jr. - motivated by that Pro Bowl snub - could go nuclear on a rusty JuJu Brents. Still, those angles aren't enough for an ATS wager on a Doug Pederson team.

BUF -3.5 LIGHT A scroll of angles favor BUF.

Mayo is a dead man walking in NE. The Pats - looking to finally sever all ties with the Belichick era - will fire him tomorrow, and I'm not even sure if his players like him enough to send him out on a positive note.
NE currently will be able to auction of the 1st pick in the draft for a boatload of much-needed rebuilding ammo, or simply pick a superstar in Travis Hunter. This has to be baked in.
Many of BUF's backups are better than the starters the Pats are currently trotting out. A few of those backups (Von Miller, Dawson Knox) will be motivated by hefty contract incentives.
Ray Davis smash spot. 100% guaranteed.

PHI -2 NO BET Same deal here as BUF/NE. PHI's backup O-line and secondary may be better than NYG's current starters, and guys like Calcaterra, Ojomo, etc, could start for NY.

From what I've seen of Tanner McKee in preseason action, I would take him over Lock if I was building a team.

Still, no bet. Because Malik Nabers. Nabers only needs targets to kill any bet on PHI here, and - motivated by his race with Bowers for those rookie receiving records - he's undoubtedly going to get them.

NO +14 NO BET ATS/LIGHT ON OVER Pure gut here. Every ounce of pressure is on TB. Given their current RB and interior O-line situation, NO won't even attempt to run vs. Vea and crew. However, I don't trust that banged-up TB secondary - even against Rattler, MV-S, Moreau, etc. - to prevent a backdoor.

TEN -1.5 NO BET Obvious 1st half/2nd half appeal here, but also obvious Will Levis, so I'll pass.

The Titans have already defeated HOU at full health back in November, and HOU honestly hasn't been very good since then. With Tony Pollard playing and motivated by nearly $500,000 in very attainable bonuses, TEN feels like the right side.

Happy hunting fellas.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago - hide

Another final Sunday of the regular season. As with tradition, I've already donned the black armband and had a moment of silence. The buffalo wings and chili fries are en route.

Here's what I got on early games:

DAL +7 LIGHT Was gonna pass here, then the line moved from 4.5 to 7.

Weird stuff happens in this rivalry. Much more importantly, I think WAS is overrated. Have for a while. Hail Marys...Hurts going down early...WAS has been very lucky and are a deceiving 11-5, IMO.

JAX +3.5 NO BET ATS/LIGHT ON OVER I was sniffing around an IND fade until Josh Hines-Allen was ruled OUT. The IND defense has totally packed it in. I mean, Drew Lock?? That sin is unforgivable.

Brian Thomas Jr. - motivated by that Pro Bowl snub - could go nuclear on a rusty JuJu Brents. Still, those angles aren't enough for an ATS wager on a Doug Pederson team.

BUF -3.5 LIGHT A scroll of angles favor BUF.

Mayo is a dead man walking in NE. The Pats - looking to finally sever all ties with the Belichick era - will fire him tomorrow, and I'm not even sure if his players like him enough to send him out on a positive note.
NE currently will be able to auction of the 1st pick in the draft for a boatload of much-needed rebuilding ammo, or simply pick a superstar in Travis Hunter. This has to be baked in.
Many of BUF's backups are better than the starters the Pats are currently trotting out. A few of those backups (Von Miller, Dawson Knox) will be motivated by hefty contract incentives.
Ray Davis smash spot. 100% guaranteed.

PHI -2 NO BET Same deal here as BUF/NE. PHI's backup O-line and secondary may be better than NYG's current starters, and guys like Calcaterra, Ojomo, etc, could start for NY.

From what I've seen of Tanner McKee in preseason action, I would take him over Lock if I was building a team.

TEN -1.5 NO BET Obvious 1st half/2nd half appeal here, but also obvious Will Levis, so I'll pass.

Happy hunting fellas.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

Late Games:

SF +4.5 HEAVY I expect Kyler Murray to put up a nice stat line. He will need to run more with all the RB injuries, and earns $750,000 in vidja scratch with 50 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD. Also - he will be playing from behind. I've done well fading the overrated Cardinals during the 2nd half of the season and won't stop now.

Josh Dobbs can be an efficient PG when the task isn't too large. The ARI defense qualifies. I expect nice games from Guerendo and one of Pearsall/Jennings in a comfortable SF win.

KC +11 NO BET I worry a bit about how Nix and a young DEN team will respond in a must-win spot, especially after that draining OT loss to CIN. The Broncos still feel like a "next year" team to me.

LAR +7.5 NO BET I know that Geno Smith stands to pocket $6 million with 185 passing yards, a 69.7 completion rate and a win, but I just have a hunch that Garoppolo, Corum and Atwell keep this within 7. Sean McVay likes this type of challenge.

LAC -7 NO BET All logic says the Chargers are the right side, but I'm fearful enough of a Bowers eruption to lay off.

MIA +1.5 LIGHT Morgan Moses is OUT, while Terron Armstead is playing. Chop Robinson is cleared for takeoff.

The Jets are directionless. MIA has motivation and I'm getting points.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 3 month(s) ago
@Baird I gave up a while ago on plays of any kind with Harris/Warren. PIT's insistence on feeding Harris so he can not break tackles and plod his way to 3 YPC is baffling. Also, PIT needs to find a chump team to take Pickens off their hands this offseason. Ultra-talented, but the dude is a poisonous moron. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 3 month(s) ago
@Baird They're insisting Rodgers will start. The dude has this organization held hostage. I have to think the leash will be short though. O-line injuries could be key here. Looks like MIA could be without Armstead and Lamm (IR today). However, DNPs for Moses and AV-T is just as concerning for the Jets. If they can't go, Chop Robinson could one-man wreck the right side of the NYJ O-line. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

@petermwb

Gotta disagree, Jeanty is a stud and one of the few elite prospects in this draft. PSU - who is much more talented than Boise St. to begin with - totally keyed on Jeanty, and Boise was down 14-0 in the blink of an eye. Hard for any RB to thrive in that scenario. Even so, Jeanty still got 100+ and eventually got into a lather, busting runs of 10+, 20+, and contributing as a receiver. He's a 1st-rounder. Feldman Freak List (6.23 strength-to-body weight ratio, squats 600+ lbs, clocked at over 22 MHP in-game). He's bigger/stronger than Jahmyr Gibbs, who went 12th overall.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

@Barnowl1952

CLE could easily pick 1st overall. They'll undoubtedly get walloped by BAL, and the NYG can't jump CLE (SOS).

NE can't score, is very injured, and BUF has a quality depth chart. Backups like Ray Davis, Ty Johnson, Dawson Knox, Curtis Samuel, Van-Pran Granger, Dawuane Smoot, DeWayne Carter, Dorian Williams, Cole Bishop, etc, aren't much worse than many of NE's current starters.

HOU will play their starters, but for how long? Even if the HOU starters were to play the entire game (they won't), there's no guarantee they beat TEN. The Texans have looked awful since mid-November, even losing at home to these same Titans 32-27. HOU's interior offensive and defensive lines suck, while the interior offensive and defensive line are where TEN is strongest.

Long way to go in the pre-draft process, but it seems like picking Sanders at 1.1 would be a very Cleveland Browns thing to do.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

I'm interested to know the success rate for teams that plan to rotate QBs. Two such scenarios this week (CLE - DR-T/Zappe, TEN - Levis/Rudolph). I can't imagine the record is good - rotating QBs is a clear message to the rest of the team that the organization is directionless.

Speaking of directionless...I wouldn't touch IND right now. There's frustration in that locker room and I fear guys are checking out. The lack of tackling effort vs the Giants was jaw-dropping. Defenders were flat-out jogging during those Nabers TDs.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago - hide

For those thinking about betting the 49ers, SF is down to their 4th-string LT, LG Aaron Banks is OUT, and RT Colton McKivitz (who sucks anyway) went from LP on THU to DNP on FRI. Here's the likely starting SF O-line vs. the Lions:

LT Charlie Heck (LOL)

LG Nick Zakelj (???)

C Jake Brendel

RG Dominick Puni

RT Austin Pleasents (???)

I pride myself on autistically thorough NFL Draft research, and I have never heard of Zakeelj and Pleasents. This O-line is going to make Josh Paschal and Levi Onwuzurike look like All-Pros.

Conversely, the only remaining SF pass-rusher worth a damn (Bosa) will be erased by Penei Sewell. I keep reading about how DET/SF is going to be a highly competitive shootout; I just don't see it. The somehow still overrated Niners are gonna get Jahmyr Gibbsed to death.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

@Baird

I'm on it. I'm currently going game-by-game identifying the players that should be most motivated by hefty performance bonuses lol.

Nice call on SF. The Niners left it all out there.

I'm worried a bit about that DET defense vs. MIN in WK 18, but Goff excels vs. the blitz and has historically performed laser surgery on the Flores defense, so I'm guessing the Lions simply outscore MIN. Might get frisky with a wager depending on Aaron Jones' injury status.

I also like that MIN is already a trendy upset pick across media outlets. DET feeds off being underestimated, especially at home.

That said, I'm already eying a potential LAR/DET divisional round matchup as a fade spot for DET.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

LT Charlie Heck (LOL)

LG Nick Zakelj (???)

C Jake Brendel

RG Dominick Puni

RT Austin Pleasents (???)

I pride myself on autistically thorough NFL Draft research, and I have never heard of Zakeelj and Pleasents. This O-line is going to make Josh Paschal and Levi Onwuzurike look like All-Pros.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago - hide

LT Charlie Heck (LOL)

LG Nick Zakelj (???)

C Jake Brendel

RG Dominick Puni

RT Austin Pleasents (???)

I pride myself on autistically thorough NFL Draft research, and I have never heard of Zakeelj and Pleasents. This O-line is going to make Josh Paschal and Levi Onwuzurike look like All-Pros.

	Baird • 110 Posts (74 ) • 1 years 3 month(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter... "I pride myself on autistically thorough" Put that to work in week 18. Meaningless games w/ gems to be had. Some bad public angles OR big favs resting. Find us some diamonds in the rough. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago - hide

LT Charlie Heck (LOL)

LG Nick Zakelj (???)

C Jake Brendel

RG Dominick Puni

RT Austin Pleasents (???)

I pride myself on autistically thorough NFL Draft research, and I have never heard of Zakeelj and Pleasents. This O-line is going to make Josh Paschal and Levi Onwuzurike look like All-Pros.

	Baird • 110 Posts (74 ) • 1 years 3 month(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter - sadly, I finished a small 25/150 w/ SF +9.5 simply because. Game means nothing to road team and (hopefully) a lot to home team. Jennings, Kittle & Deebo have really good matchups. Shanna pride? *For the record, I have DET +3.5 next week 1 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

I'd appreciate any angles anyone can offer on DEN/CIN. I'm basically certain that the Chargers TCB @NE, so not only is DEN/CIN crucial to the playoff hopes of the Bengals and Broncos, it's crucial to MIA, IND and SEA (SOS tiebreaker). I feel like I've turned over every stone, yet am still pretty much 50/50 on this one.

Advantage DEN:

DEN elite scoring defense, pressure rate and sacks ranking. Nick Bonitto (11.5 sacks), Jonathon Cooper (8.0) and Zach Allen (5.0, 33 QB hits) have been quietly excellent and should thrive, especially if Mims can't go and CIN has to throw Cody Ford or Devin Cochran into the fire at RT. Burrow has been effective in avoiding pressure, climbing the pocket, and completing last-moment, rabbit-out-of-the-hat no-look passes and such, but is that sustainable vs. the Broncos?
Chase vs. Surtain. We obviously can't assume any CB will shut down Chase, but if there's a CB physically and stylistically designed to do it, it's Surtain. He's done it before. (Held Chase to 4 targets/1 catch/3 yards in their last matchup.)
CIN short week/DEN 9-days rest. Extra rest (22-9), off a loss (52-29), following TNF (10-4) and consecutive road games are spots where Payton has historically done well. Just trends, but it's something.
CIN MUST WIN. You'd think this would be a motivational advantage for CIN, but I think it could easily be a negative in this spot. DEN hasn't clinched, is desperate to make the playoffs for the first time since '15, and can't assume victory vs. KC in Week 18 (even if the KC stars only play a few drives), so it's not as if there's no motivation for the Broncos. CIN has been pretty much in must-win mode for a while now, yet have only answered the bell against bad teams. The bottom line is it feels like CIN is still seen as the team that always digs themselves out of the hole, and the assumption that they will do it again is still being baked into their Vegas pricing. Thing is, this just isn't the same team that pulled it off in recent seasons. Been there, done that vets like Reader, Hubbard, Wilson, Awuzie, Bates, Mixon, J. Williams, etc, have been replaced in the CIN lineup by downgrades, rookies and 2nd-year guys. Will they step up?

ADVANTAGE CIN:

CIN ranks 29th in success rate vs. RBs, but does DEN have a good RB? Will someone emerge from DEN's kinda icky RBBC to take advantage? If so, DEN wins. The Broncos had a good lather going with the running game vs. the Chargers - building an 11-point lead - then inexplicably abandoned it. That can't happen again because...
...DEN can't get roped into a shootout with CIN. The Bengals don't have a CB that can deal with Courtland Sutton - so he's gonna get his numbers - but DEN will need more if the game goes back-and-forth. Marvin Mims and his recent poor man's Deebo Samuel routine doesn't feel like enough. CIN's recent success has been predicated on roping teams with bad QBs (Rush/Levis/DT-R) into shootouts, then letting their bad defense gather the inevitable basket of turnovers. So the most important question in this game is...
Is Bo Nix that good, really? Since a turnover-heavy patch a few weeks back, Nix has been more efficient recently and put up decent numbers, but the air yards p/attempt have declined. Are the Broncos hiding him? With a gun to my head, I'm thinking the ride ends for CIN today, but I fear a shootout in which Nix is exposed.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago - hide

Advantage DEN:

DEN elite scoring defense, pressure rate and sacks ranking. Nick Bonitto (11.5 sacks), Jonathon Cooper (8.0) and Zach Allen (5.0, 33 QB hits) have been quietly excellent and should thrive, especially if Mims can't go and CIN has to throw Cody Ford or Devin Cochran into the fire at RT. Burrow has been effective in avoiding pressure, climbing the pocket, and completing last-moment, rabbit-out-of-the-hat no-look passes and such, but is that sustainable vs. the Broncos?
Chase vs. Surtain. We obviously can't assume any CB will shut down Chase, but if there's a CB physically and stylistically designed to do it, it's Surtain. He's done it before. (Held Chase to 4 targets/1 catch/3 yards in their last matchup.)
CIN short week/DEN 9-days rest. Extra rest (22-9), off a loss (52-29), following TNF (10-4) and consecutive road games are spots where Payton has historically done well. Just trends, but it's something.
CIN MUST WIN. You'd think this would be a motivational advantage for CIN, but I think it could easily be a negative in this spot. DEN hasn't clinched, is desperate to make the playoffs for the first time since '15, and can't assume victory vs. KC in Week 18 (even if the KC stars only play a few drives), so it's not as if there's no motivation for the Broncos. CIN has been pretty much in must-win mode for a while now, yet have only answered the bell against bad teams. The bottom line is it feels like CIN is still seen as the team that always digs themselves out of the hole, and the assumption that they will do it again is still being baked into their Vegas pricing. Thing is, this just isn't the same team that pulled it off in recent seasons. Been there, done that vets like Reader, Hubbard, Wilson, Awuzie, Bates, Mixon, J. Williams, etc, have been replaced in the CIN lineup by downgrades, rookies and 2nd-year guys. Will they step up?

ADVANTAGE CIN:

CIN ranks 29th in success rate vs. RBs, but does DEN have a good RB? Will someone emerge from DEN's kinda icky RBBC to take advantage? If so, DEN wins. The Broncos had a good lather going with the running game vs. the Chargers - building an 11-point lead - then inexplicably abandoned it. That can't happen again because...
...DEN can't get roped into a shootout with CIN. The Bengals don't have a CB that can deal with Courtland Sutton - so he's gonna get his numbers - but DEN will need more if the game goes back-and-forth. Marvin Mims and his recent poor man's Deebo Samuel routine doesn't feel like enough. CIN's recent success has been predicated on roping teams with bad QBs (Rush/Levis/DT-R) into shootouts, then letting their bad defense gather the inevitable basket of turnovers. So the most important question in this game is...
Is Bo Nix that good, really? Since a turnover-heavy patch a few weeks back, Nix has been more efficient recently and put up decent numbers, but the air yards p/attempt have declined. Are the Broncos hiding him? With a gun to my head, I'm thinking the ride ends for CIN today, but I fear a shootout in which Nix is exposed.

	WFDevTeam • 139 Posts (30 ) • 1 years 3 month(s) ago wfdevteam
@Mr. Bitter I run a bit paranoid/cynical and from that vantage point I felt the league wanted Burrow in the playoffs and so there has been some help in keeping them alive. However, if Walt is right about Cincinatti having the flu it may be this is as much season as they are going to get out of Burrow this year. 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 3 month(s) ago
@DoctorJ Pickett practiced and spoke to the media. He'll probably start. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

PIT +2 Chris Jones is OUT. George Pickens is active. That KC OT situation vs. Watt/Highsmith. Haven't liked what I've seen from Pacheco since he's returned. Liking the UNDER and Steelers to win SU on a Boswell FG. DEN beats CIN on Saturday, then KC clinches HF @DEN Week 18 when Jones and Humphries return.

BAL -6.5 Mixon is fading, HOU interior O-line is a wreck, and BAL is nails vs. the run regardless. The BAL secondary (not poor) will contain last-man-standing Nico Collins. Absences up the middle at all three defensive levels of the HOU defense (Fatukasi/Al-Shaair/Ward) rolls out the red carpet for Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Huge game from Jackson tightens the MVP gap with Josh Allen.

GL to all and Merry Xmas gents.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

@Baird

I'd take NO's ranking vs. TEs with a grain of salt. The LB crew is the strength of their defense, but a lot of their success vs. TEs has been circumstantial.

Right off the bat, the NFC South is a below-average TE division. The NO TE defense has been bolstered by 4 games vs. CAR (where TEs are an ever-injured hodgepodge of afterthoughts) and ATL (where Pitts has basically become the Invisible Man). In NO's 51-27 blowout loss to TB, Otton was getting in a lather and had an early TD before sitting out, and Godwin was gobbling up every target in sight anyway (11/125/2).

The NO non-division schedule has featured DAL (Ferguson OUT), DEN (practice squad-level TEs rarely targeted), LAR (Higbee OUT), NYG (Theo Johnson OUT), WAS (Ertz left early-1st quarter w/concussion), LAC (Hurst OUT/Dissly injured), and GB (blowout/Kraft unneeded as Packers basically did whatever they want).

In their only three games vs. healthy, dangerous TEs that demand 2nd/3rd option volume, the Saints have given up 9/81 to David Njoku, 11/99 to Kelce (9/70)/Gray, and 10/170 (!!) to Dallas Goedert. Bowers is basically WR1 for LV and should go bonkers.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

@Baird

DEN +9 looks comfy. Agree with all of your angles, and I'm just getting the sense that the ride ends here for CIN. No team with a defense that putrid gets a Hollywood ending - they're more likely to get a season-ending, mundane home L that encapsulates everything that was wrong from the beginning.

Also: Courtland Sutton is in a serious smash spot vs. a CIN defense that hemorrhages vs. WR1s. Nix-to-Sutton alone could keep DEN within a score.

(Side note: Hubbard, Rankins, Wilson injury availability could change things, but I'll be surprised if any one of them plays - especially Hubbard.)

To answer your rhetorical question: The Saints bet is very scary. You've definitely got marbles.

Rattler is comically bad. I can kinda see a scenario where the Saints uglify the game with some clock-killing Kendre Miller action, but Miller's complete no-show vs. GB is concerning, as are the injuries to Lucas Patrick and Erik McCoy. I get that the Saints were outclassed from the jump @GB and game script was never in Miller's favor, but he just didn't look good at all.

I'm hearing Olave may play. I'd be shocked. So many concussions in a relatively short time...you almost have to shut him down, right?

NO vs. LV is crap vs. crap - so anything is possible - but my gut says it may just be a "team with the best player wins" type-game and Bowers goes nuclear.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

@Nagurski

The "Ravens have a poor pass defense" narrative has been bothering me for a while now because it's incorrect and seems to be foundational to the "Ravens are overrated" argument, so allow me to pile on.

Since Marlon Humphrey's return to full health and Kyle Hamilton's switch from the slot to FS (around Week 10, as you said), Humphrey has been the NFL's top-graded CB and the BAL pass defense is #1 in EPA allowed per dropback. Nate Wiggins has improved by the week (smothered Malik Nabers) and Ar'Darius Washington has been a revelation at SS.

With Tank Dell out, Nico Collins -who hasn't really looked right since returning from injury anyway - may have a hard time getting loose.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 3 month(s) ago
And that's why I usually don't bet crap vs. crap. Penalties, fumbles, drops...JAX is a talented team that Pederson and his staff haven't developed whatsoever. Dinged a clean two-week run for me. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

@Baird

Also decided to go light on JAX+2.5. I usually avoid crap vs. crap, but LV is really crappy. Gotta take the points.

Save for the total meltdown @DET a few weeks ago, JAX has been keeping games close since mid-October. The O-line is healthy, Etienne/Bigsby are showing signs of life, Brenton Strange has actually been an upgrade from Evan Engram, and there's still good, young talent peppered along that JAX defensive depth chart. The Raiders are as poorly coached as JAX, and with Maxx Crosby out for the year, they have absolutely nothing on defense.

I think Brian Thomas Jr. gets loose vs. that awful LV secondary. Tyson Campbell should be able to contain a banged-up Jacobi Meyers, so my only concern is Bowers going off for 150 yards/2 TDs or something and burning me. Possible, but I'm gonna risk it. GL and enjoy

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

@Karensman

I'm with you on DET/Montgomery. I don't think Walt is giving Montgomery enough credit for what he brings to the Lions. Yeah, the Lions can beat you in many different ways and Montgomery is just a RB, but Sonic and Knuckles running behind that O-line is DET's foundational character. Knuckles is a heart-and-soul guy, and while the Lions are incredibly resilient, I don't think it's safe to assume Craig Reynolds just steps in and seamlessly replaces him.

I also think the "that's just more touches for Jahmyr Gibbs" logic is faulty. Gibbs is obviously more talented/explosive than Montgomery, but he's also a 5-9/195ish RB that punches above his weight with his aggressive running style. He's most effective in bursts, which the Lions obviously know because they prioritized signing Montgomery to replace Jamaal Williams as a high-level tag-team partner for Gibbs.

Gibbs may go bonkers today against a CHI front seven that's weak vs. RBs, but I fear increased usage will eventually lead to inefficiency and maybe even Gibb's name being added to DET's scrolling injury list.

CHI +6.5 is the only dog I'm interested in today, and that's only if Braxton Jones and Teven Jenkins play. I know the CHI offense has been discombobulated recently, but I just can't ignore that Moore/Allen/Odunze vs. DET CBs mismatch as a backdoor recipe.

Otherwise, I'm just laying the points with ATL and GB this week. I'm all in on the Falcons QB change, and I don't see how NO/GB is anything else but a primetime blowout. GL

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 3 month(s) ago
@Charles Beagle I get that CHI drafted Odunze to ensure Caleb Williams won't be lacking for quality targets anytime soon, but my God would Chop Robinson or Dallas Turner have looked good opposite Montez Sweat. Pace may have even been able to grab either after trading down with a team desperate to move up ahead of MIN for McCarthy or Nix. Pace kinda blew that one, IMO. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

The Herbert injury and LA's lack of any real HFA scare me, but this is exactly the type of game recent Chargers editions would lose and Harbaugh was hired to win.

The last time DEN played a team with a decent QB was back on Nov. 10 on the road against Mahomes and the Chiefs. DEN lost that game 16-14, and I think we may see a similarly close game tonight.

Neither team can run. Courtland Sutton should get his numbers, but he is DEN's only real weapon. Tarheeb Still has stepped up, so the Hart/Molden injuries aren't terrifying. McConkey could have a big game as he avoids boundary-anchored Surtain, and Hayden Hurst might make an impact fresh off the IR.

LAC 23 DEN 20

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

You're seriously overthinking the Rams/motivation angle.

"If the Rams win this game and the next one....provided SEA beats MIN, which is very possible...I don't know if the Rams will know this..."

MIN beating SEA is also very possible, and I'm sure the Rams are aware that they'll be alone in first place if that happens and they TCB vs. the Jets.

The Jets have done well the past two weeks because Mike McDaniel and Doug Pederson happen to be two of the few HCs that don't have a pronounced advantage over Jeff Ulbrich and company. Sean McVay won't let the Rams walk into an ambush.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

Week 15 notes:

The Detroit Lions will continue their string of bad luck until they do the right thing and wear the silver pants.
Not buying Aidan Hutchinson returning in time for the Super Bowl. No way. That leg was shattered and wrapped around like the snake around the tree in a Garden of Eden painting.
That Pat Surtain injury looms large. The Broncos are going to blow this, aren't they?

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 3 month(s) ago
@Osmodiar Agree, but is there a tackle worth taking in the top-10? 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 3 month(s) ago
Tyler Warren in the 3rd RD is nuts. Probable top-25 pick, high-2nd RD floor. Where is Josh Simmons? Easy to forget because of the injury, but might be the only pure OT prospect worthy of top-15 consideration in this draft. (Campbell and Banks profile as guards.) Can't see Jihaad Campbell still on the board mid-2nd RD. Absolute monster. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago - hide

When the Rams and Niners met in Week 3, the Rams were without Nacua and Kupp, while SF still had Mason, Aiyuk, Trent Williams and Hargrove...and the Rams won 27-24 as 6.5 point dogs.

The Rams have 1 turnover in the last four games, while the Niners have 8.

On career snaps Brock Purdy has played with Trent Williams in the lineup, the SF offense has averaged 0.18 EPA per play. On snaps taken without Williams in the lineup, the EPA drops to 0.0.

Since 2023, SF averages 2 TDs p/game when Trent Williams is injured. The Niners are 1-2 without Williams this season. In 2023, Purdy had 28 TD/2 INT with a healthy Williams, and 3 TD/9 INT without.

Sean McVay is 6-2 on short rest.

	Baird • 110 Posts (74 ) • 1 years 3 month(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Your take on WAS/NO may be right. Saints O-line is healthy and could grind out a close game. Kool-aid may shadow McLaurin & Ekeler is out so it could easily be a grinder game. As long as WAS wins I'm good. I also like... KC/CLE under Phi +0.5 Pacheco > props Added more to Justice Hill > 12.5 rush 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

When the Rams and Niners met in Week 3, the Rams were without Nacua and Kupp, while SF still had Mason, Aiyuk, Trent Williams and Hargrove...and the Rams won 27-24 as 6.5 point dogs.

The Rams have 1 turnover in the last four games, while the Niners have 8.

On career snaps Brock Purdy has played with Trent Williams in the lineup, the SF offense has averaged 0.18 EPA per play. On snaps taken without Williams in the lineup, the EPA drops to 0.0.

Since 2023, SF averages 2 TDs p/game when Trent Williams is injured. The Niners are 1-2 without Williams this season. In 2023, Purdy had 28 TD/2 INT with a healthy Williams, and 3 TD/9 INT without.

Sean McVay is 6-2 on short rest.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago - hide

When the Rams and Niners met in Week 3, the Rams were without Nacua and Kupp, while SF still had Mason, Aiyuk, Trent Williams and Hargrove...and the Rams won 27-24 as 6.5 point dogs.

The Rams have 1 turnover in the last four games, while the Niners have 8.

On career snaps Brock Purdy has played with Trent Williams in the lineup, the SF offense has averaged 0.18 EPA per play. On snaps taken without Williams in the lineup, the EPA drops to 0.0.

Since 2023, SF averages 2 TDs p/game when Trent Williams is injured. The Niners are 1-2 without Williams this season. In 2023, Purdy had 28 TD/2 INT with a healthy Williams, and 3 TD/9 INT without.

Sean McVay is 6-2 on short rest.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

@Baird

For what it's worth, I think the Rams win out and take the NFC West. It all points to that SEA/LAR Week 18 game, which I think the Rams win (assuming they stay healthy). McVay kinda owns the Seahawks. I like SEA, but they're inconsistent and I gotta go with a dialed-in Stafford over Geno in a for-all-the-marbles game.

I like the vibe the Rams have going right now. They're balanced and efficient. I was worried that their young defensive front seven might fade, but then it occurred to me that Verse, Fiske, Turner, Young are grown men. Very smart of Snead/McVay to target mature, experienced prospects in the draft during their on-the-fly defensive rebuild.

Side notes: Turner is a stud. Elite interior pressure metrics. His matchup vs. the SF interior D-line (good zone run-blockers, bad in pass pro) was another big reason I liked the Rams over SF.

Kinda liking that All-Kam safety duo you got going. Kinchens was a steal.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 3 month(s) ago
@Baird This seems like a gift. Could easily be the type of game script where Henry and Hill feast for 3 quarters and even Keaton Mitchell gets in there in the 4th quarter and gets 15 yards and a TD. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago - hide

When the Rams and Niners met in Week 3, the Rams were without Nacua and Kupp, while SF still had Mason, Aiyuk, Trent Williams and Hargrove...and the Rams won 27-24 as 6.5 point dogs.

The Rams have 1 turnover in the last four games, while the Niners have 8.

On career snaps Brock Purdy has played with Trent Williams in the lineup, the SF offense has averaged 0.18 EPA per play. On snaps taken without Williams in the lineup, the EPA drops to 0.0.

Since 2023, SF averages 2 TDs p/game when Trent Williams is injured. The Niners are 1-2 without Williams this season. In 2023, Purdy had 28 TD/2 INT with a healthy Williams, and 3 TD/9 INT without.

Sean McVay is 6-2 on short rest.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

@Baird

I started the week on the right foot with small plays on the Rams and the UNDER. (Weather, sketchy SF offense without Trent Williams.) Not sure why so many were on the Niners in that spot - the Rams and Niners are plainly going in opposite directions.

Been mostly fading SF and ARI for a while now. Been thinking for a few months that the NFC West would come down to LAR and SEA.

Don't have a feel for CIN/TEN. Shootout potential if Pollard plays, but rain/wind might be factors. Calvin Ridley vs. Josh Newton screams mismatch, but that's assuming Levis doesn't lay an egg. He's overdue.

No reason why BAL won't give the Giants a snot-bubble beating.

My gut says the Saints give WAS a game. I'm worried WAS's bye week may have derailed that little bit of momentum they got back after dropping three straight. Then again, it also allowed Daniels more time to heal up.

Kamara and Kendre Miller should be able to bit off chunks behind Erik McCoy and keep the game low-scoring and tight. Daron Payne is QUESTIONABLE and Jer'Zhan Newton is putrid vs. the run.

I also worry that the effectiveness of the Kingsbury scheme will continue it's annual pattern of late-season fades.

Will probably give my plays tomorrow. GL

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago - hide

When the Rams and Niners met in Week 3, the Rams were without Nacua and Kupp, while SF still had Mason, Aiyuk, Trent Williams and Hargrove...and the Rams won 27-24 as 6.5 point dogs.

The Rams have 1 turnover in the last four games, while the Niners have 8.

On career snaps Brock Purdy has played with Trent Williams in the lineup, the SF offense has averaged 0.18 EPA per play. On snaps taken without Williams in the lineup, the EPA drops to 0.0.

Since 2023, SF averages 2 TDs p/game when Trent Williams is injured. The Niners are 1-2 without Williams this season. In 2023, Purdy had 28 TD/2 INT with a healthy Williams, and 3 TD/9 INT without.

Sean McVay is 6-2 on short rest.

Baird • 110 Posts (74

) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter - great info right there! Crazy FG game was odd. Now I'm hoping LAR can win the div & make a playoff run. The last second FG killed my middle, but most of my $ was on Rams so all good.

I want to love TEN this week but Pollards D-D-L is sketchy. Brown, Rankins & the LB crew are out (CIN is starting an undrafted LB so Chig & Pollard could do well). I'm backing off a little awaiting Pollard news.

My biggest tease is WAS -1 and next is BAL -8.5. I cant imagine the Saints kill me like they did vs CLE, but any given Sunday. GL

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 3 month(s) ago
@Baird That is so embarrassing. Might be 6-0. Then again, the Jets need their annual late-season/meaningless win that ensures they drop out of range for a decent QB in the draft. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 3 month(s) ago
@Baird Hey, don't give DET too much credit. It was Eberflus that beat CHI by 3. I'm with Walt. BUF wins SU. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 3 month(s) ago
@DoctorJ My only beef with this analysis is the defensive stats angle. DET's defensive stats have to be taken with a huge grain of salt now that their front seven has been decimated by injury. I mean, Glenn's scheming is top-notch, but when you're down to starting guys like Al-Quadin Muhammad, Pat O'Connor, Jonah Williams, Ezekial Turner...that's gotta catch up to you. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 11 month(s) ago - hide
Quinn Ewers will lose his job to Arch Manning and transfer. 0 2

will33sx • 5 Posts (0) •
1 years 3 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter the sad thing is Arch couldn't beat Ewers out for the job. At least he's not like most of these kids and transfer when they lose the competition. They all want to star immediately and even though they've been paid they leave,because they're just a bunch of entitles children. The portal and NIL has made college football a professional league. I'm surprised they have to go to school ,i suppose alot don't and that's why they love the SEC with their extremely low academic standards.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 11 month(s) ago
Quinn Ewers will lose his job to Arch Manning and transfer. 0 2

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Karensman

I don't think you're mistaken. Walt's assessment of CIN/DAL is pretty spot-on. The Bengals just aren't a good team.

That opening CIN -6 line is nuts to me. The only explanations I can think of are:

DAL has been complete dogsh*t at home vs. any team with a pulse this season, or...

...Vegas anticipates a "pride" performance from CIN (which I might buy if CIN hadn't been so flat when it actually mattered and Zac Taylor wasn't such an ineffective HC), or...

...Vegas thinks bettors might ignore all the factors that make DAL the right side and boil it all down to "Burrow is so much better than Rush".

Pissed-off Burrow going nuclear while Rush lays an egg is definitely on the table, but Burrow has been going nuclear all season and the Bengals still lose. Like Walt said - CIN has almost nothing positive going on beyond Burrow/Chase/Higgins, while a lot of positive stuff is going on for DAL right now relative to their record. DAL will probably have Diggs and Bland back at CB...Orlando Brown Jr. is DOUBTFUL just as Parsons is getting into a lather...Lamb staying positive and gutting it out...Brandin Cooks coming back...Jake Ferguson coming back just as Logan Wilson goes on IR...DeMarvion Overshown emerging as a stud...hell, even Mazi Smith has been grading out well lately. I gotta think DAL stays within a FG.

I'm kinda liking SF to cover vs. your Bears. Even with all the injuries, one of those aforementioned pride games is something I could see from SF in this one, especially off two humbling road losses. Just can't see a Shanahan team quitting. The Bears are also pretty banged-up themselves.

If the Niners can run on anybody right now, it's CHI, and if SF can control any team's run game right now, it's CHI. (De'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson are trending OUT.) I'm thinking a back-to-basics, 23-17ish win for SF behind a strong performance from Isaac Guerendo.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Baird

LV absolutely can't run the ball. They shouldn't even waste their time trying vs. TB. I imagine Irving/White/Tucker will find success from jump, so O'Connell should be flinging it early and often. The TB pass D is susceptible.

The Bucs are awful defending the slot. If Tykee Smith is OUT again, Meyers could practically be running against air. Bowers will do his usual Bowers things, so there's real shootout potential in this one - assuming LV puts forth a little effort. I don't see why they wouldn't - it's not as if they're coming down from anything. They were never in contention to begin with. Pierce and his staff are awful, but the players like them, so I can't imagine LV just full-on rolling over.

I'm sniffing around an O'Connell/Meyers/Bowers stack for DFS tournaments, maybe with an Otton runback. (Two-TE uniqueness/Mike Evans hurt, QUESTIONABLE).

I'm with you on the Giants emerging with the #1 pick. Miserable vibes in that locker room. Drew Lock is now operating behind 3rd-string OTs...that's going to get really ugly. Schoen and Daboll feel like dead men walking.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago - hide

My top play this week is ATL+1.5 at home. I think the Falcons win SU. Maybe even comfortably.

It's assumed that Jim Harbaugh's strong running game/strong defense foundation will travel well vs. a team like ATL, but way too many cracks are forming in that foundation to ignore.

For Harbaugh's formula to succeed, Gus Edwards will need to bite off chunks, and I don't see that happening. He looks totally cooked. (Yeah, maybe Hassan Haskins/Kimani Vidal get plugged in and do some damage, but I wouldn't count on it.)

As improved as the LAC O-line has been, ATL's O-line is better - especially with Drew Dalman healthy again. ATL should be able to control the LOS against an overrated and injured LAC run defense.

The rash of LB injuries leaves it up slowpokes like Nick Niemann to deal with Bijan Robinson swinging out of the backfield. This does not bode well for the Chargers. Even if Derwin James plays closer to the LOS, that would mean trash like Marcus Maye getting too much run at safety. Either way, there's going to be ample space for ATL's speedy targets.

Cousins should be pretty cozy in the pocket. Bosa and Mack are playing hurt and seriously dragging ass toward the season's finish line. London, Mooney and maybe even Pitts should all eat vs a very susceptible LAC secondary. (Asante Samuel Jr. is out for the season. Alohi Gilman and Cam Hart are OUT, while Kristian Fulton is predictably regressing. Derwin James can't be everywhere at once.)

I would have liked Herbert to keep pace in a shootout a few weeks ago, but not now. Not without Dobbins, and not with Quintin Johnston regressing back to BUST form after an unsustainably efficient start to the season. Ladd McConkey might even be banged up. (Beware the rookie wall.)

Harbaugh's records ATS off a loss and in cross-country games are impressive, but they're still just trends and are outweighed by a lot of emerging problems for the Chargers - especially in a game sandwiched between the Harbaugh Bowl and @KC in prime time next week. ATL has TB on their ass and should show up.

Baird • 110 Posts (74

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter - ATL was def the right side. Cousins single handedly blew that game. How bad is he slumping? Watch him try so hard in MIN (2 picks? 350 yds? IDK). The letdown from LAC was real - they gave up 5 sacks to the weakest pass rush. Luckily I teased +7 so I'm happy, but was hoping for a win cause the div race is getting too close. Now I have to find the right game to close out this teaser...

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

My top play this week is ATL+1.5 at home. I think the Falcons win SU. Maybe even comfortably.

It's assumed that Jim Harbaugh's strong running game/strong defense foundation will travel well vs. a team like ATL, but way too many cracks are forming in that foundation to ignore.

As improved as the LAC O-line has been, ATL's O-line is better - especially with Drew Dalman healthy again. ATL should be able to control the LOS against an overrated and injured LAC run defense.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago - hide

My top play this week is ATL+1.5 at home. I think the Falcons win SU. Maybe even comfortably.

It's assumed that Jim Harbaugh's strong running game/strong defense foundation will travel well vs. a team like ATL, but way too many cracks are forming in that foundation to ignore.

As improved as the LAC O-line has been, ATL's O-line is better - especially with Drew Dalman healthy again. ATL should be able to control the LOS against an overrated and injured LAC run defense.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago
I stand by this call. ATL wins handily if Kirk Cousins doesn't perform like he's Earl Morrall/SBIII-level on the take. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago
Sharps on the Jets as Ian Rapoport reports Aaron Rodgers won't return to the Jets next season lol. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago - hide

My top play this week is ATL+1.5 at home. I think the Falcons win SU. Maybe even comfortably.

It's assumed that Jim Harbaugh's strong running game/strong defense foundation will travel well vs. a team like ATL, but way too many cracks are forming in that foundation to ignore.

As improved as the LAC O-line has been, ATL's O-line is better - especially with Drew Dalman healthy again. ATL should be able to control the LOS against an overrated and injured LAC run defense.

	Baird • 110 Posts (74 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter - the drop off from Dobbins to Edwards cant be ignored and the Harbaugh bowl on MNF naturally leads to a letdown from LA. Playing at home, off a bye screams ATL. I hope you're right because I have a big ticket for ATL to win their div. GL 1 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Baird

"I suck at betting AZ & NO "

Same here. But I think I may have finally figured the Cardinals out. (As for the Saints - they had their little, new rah-rah coach, pre-bye fun. I think the Rams beat them in workmanlike fashion.)

ARI GM Monti Ossenfort and Jonathan Gannon were great hires. They're establishing culture the right way and the arrow is pointing up for the organization. So when they face teams that are poorly coached (those pre-bye Ws vs. MIA, CHI and NYJ perfect examples), they TCB - especially if the opponent struggles vs. the run. Otherwise, the Cardinals can be had. They just don't have a very talented depth chart (especially on defense) and it catches up to them when they face teams with a good coaching staff. You take away Conner, and the offense becomes little more than McBride-or-bust, as none of the WRS have been able to create separation or YAC this season. Petzing's scheme has grown predictable and has shackled Murray. (One game above 21 rushing yards since Week 5.) The interior O-line is a glaring weakness and was fully exposed by SEA.

The Vikings are extremely well-coached and nails vs. the run. ARI doesn't match up well at all. As for the Flores blitz vs. Murray angle, I'm calling for variance. I would bet MIN if not for the Pace injury and my distrust of Sam Darnold.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Baird

Niners are just decimated, while the Bills are getting Milano back and are near full health (Kincaid). The only pro-SF angles I can muster up are Shanahan's sparkling post-Halloween record, it's must-win time for the Niners (while BUF has the AFC East in the bag), Jaylon Moore has been somewhat decent in relief of Trent Williams at LT, and SF gets a boost with Purdy likely back. (Although Walt's "bet against the obviously injured QB" angle is rock solid.) Niners are always a threat with McCaffrey, Samuel, Kittle and Jennings (although I'm beginning to wonder if McCaffrey's wheels are shot), but BUF just has such a pronounced advantage in the trenches in this one. On top of all that...lake-effect snow. This just might be a lost season for the Niners. Any given Sunday - but it takes a good amount of mental gymnastics to not think BUF is a clean play, especially teased to SU.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago
@xndrshadow Milroe might be the Anthony Richardson, "upside" prospect. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@carettirichard

I'm not sure about Sanders as a #1 overall-type prospect, but we all know about the draft and QB supply-and-demand. I think he'll separate from the pack - I don't think Ward or Milroe won't go as high as currently projected after they get picked apart during the pre-draft process. Pretty sure JAX sticks with T-Law, but you never know, and it's fun to speculate.

For what it's worth, I think Mason Graham would be a great fit for JAX. They need an interior difference-maker to complement Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. Graham would also be a clean, "culture" pick for the new coaching staff. If JAX gets the 1st pick and can move down a few spots for a bunch of picks and still get graham, that would be tits.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago
@Karensman Ohio resident here. Seems like the Burrow/wrist quotes are being overblown a bit. He basically just said that - in the past - cold weather has had an affect on his injuries, which is just kinda "duh". He said he "could have been better" throwing in practice, but "I/we could have been better" is his weekly default answer for everything, so I wouldn't read too much into that. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Walt

For your MIA/GB PPB & SGP, are you sure there will be enough passing goodness to go around for the RBs, TEs and Watson?

Forecast at Lambeau is calling for freezing temps, 10-15mph sustained winds with 25mph gusts. Both teams have been leaning into the run heavily lately and the weather forecast should only turn that up to 11. The MIA pass defense controls lid-lifters (4th-fewest YPPA), while the GB offense over the last four weeks is tops in rush rate in the red zone. Deep passes and RZ jump balls are how Watson makes his money. Just feels like the kinda game script that leaves Watson with one of his 2-20-0 stat lines.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Baird

How dare you pooh-pooh the great Dan Skipper!

I want so badly to throw some cabbage at CHI. Offense is ramping up a bit since the Waldron firing and return of some O-line starters...Moore/Allen/Odunze vs. those DET CBs...could be CHI's Super Bowl...it all screams back door. Then I remember Campbell vs. Eberflus. And like you said, CHI may be running on fumes.

The injuries don't seem to be letting up for SF. New reports say Fred Warner has a fractured ankle (would explain those uncharacteristic missed tackles lately), and Trent Williams was just seen in the SF locker room using a knee scooter. Reportedly, he "can barely walk" and is probably dealing with an Achilles injury. Not good. Both are likely trending more toward trips to the IR than returns to health.

Niners are just getting eaten alive by the injury bug. Beginning to wonder if there's something to that Super Bowl Loser Curse stuff.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago
@Baird Hubbard sucks so, so bad. Two starts: 7 pressures allowed to TB, and 12 (!!!) pressures allowed to PIT in WK 8. Parsons is cleared for takeoff. Your UNDER is definitely the play. Could we see a 0-0 tie? 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago - hide
I don't buy the Cardinals as a great team. Screw the net adjusted EPA. Great teams aren't flat off a bye when they're going into a divisional matchup for first place. Kyler Murray isn't playing well right now. I recently read an article describing Murray as "deluxe Daniel Jones". That might not be too far off. Six seasons in, and we're still waiting for Murray to blossom. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@akowahl

LDE L.J. Collier

NT Roy Lopez

RDE Dante Stills

LOLB Baron Browning

WLB Kyzir White

MLB Mack Wilson Sr.

ROLB Zaven Collins

LCB Sean Murphy-Bunting

SS Dadrion Taylor-Demerson

FS Budda Baker

RCB Starling Thomas V

NB Garrett Williams

With the exception of Budda Baker and maybe Garrett Williams, there isn't a player on this depth chart that would start for the MIN defense. Gannon/Rallis have done a remarkable job of overcoming injuries and scheming to the strengths of what they have to work with, but schematic smoke-and-mirrors can mask such a glaring lack of talent for only so long.

ARI would have lost to SEA - bye or no bye - because their recent success isn't sustainable. The Chargers are the only team ARI has beaten that likely makes the playoffs, and ARI's only convincing pre-bye wins were at home over CHI and NYJ - teams that were at-or-near rock bottom and can't stop the run.

Six years into the career of a former #1 overall pick, "efficient" shouldn't be okay. Especially when efficient really just means dump-offs to Trey McBride when the running game is clicking. Where is that Murray dual-threat action? Where is the connection with MHJ? We've only seen flashes, so why should I assume Murray will just turn it on when teams bottle up Conner, as SEA did and MIN will likely do?

All that said...you could easily be right about ARI winning. As you suggested, the Vikings are kinda fraudulent, too, and Sam Darnold is never to be trusted. (For what it's worth, the Ivan Pace Jr. injury and rock-the-boat signing of Daniel Jones has me leaning ARI ATS.) But a win over MIN wouldn't convince me that ARI is a great or even good team, and only push them that much more into overrated - not underrated - territory, IMO.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago
I don't buy the Cardinals as a great team. Screw the net adjusted EPA. Great teams aren't flat off a bye when they're going into a divisional matchup for first place. Kyler Murray isn't playing well right now. I recently read an article describing Murray as "deluxe Daniel Jones". That might not be too far off. Six seasons in, and we're still waiting for Murray to blossom. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago - hide
I don't buy the Cardinals as a great team. Screw the net adjusted EPA. Great teams aren't flat off a bye when they're going into a divisional matchup for first place. Kyler Murray isn't playing well right now. I recently read an article describing Murray as "deluxe Daniel Jones". That might not be too far off. Six seasons in, and we're still waiting for Murray to blossom. 0 0

akowahl • 0 Posts (0) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter The bye is a doubled edged sword, it works great if you are coming off a loss or multiple losses. Gives you time to get things in order.

Doesn't work so hot if it kills your momentum and are on a win streak like the Cards were.

To say that a team isn't good/great because they lost against a good divisional team (that you yourself view as under rated) is a little short sighted and nothing for the Cards to hang their head about.

Also Kyler didn't have a good game vs a Seattle defense that's pretty good, but before that during their 4 game win streak there are plenty of articles and opinions that he's been playing his most efficient football of his career.

Cards will win outright and expose the Vikings this week.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago - hide
TEN +6 is tempting. Jayden Daniels is injured and struggling, and WAS could be without Andrew Wylie, Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler. 0 1

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Karensman

Agreed - tough week. I like KC, TB, BUF and DEN to TCB, but those spreads are right about where they should be.

I really want to continue fading ARI (overrated, IMO), but - as you said - MIN is also overrated.

MIN just put Ivan Pace, Jr. on I.R. - an underrated blow to that defense. Phillips/Cashman/Pace has been a run defense Bermuda Triangle all season. Interested to see if cracks emerge and Conner finds a little daylight.

TEN will probably be my play this week. I know that banking on Levis to string together any amount of mistake-free games is asking for trouble, but I think there is still a little meat on that WAS bone. Daniels seems to be favoring his ribs, and we're at that point in the season where even the best of rookies meet the wall. I'm also not too concerned about TEN's situation at CB, as McLaurin is WAS's only threat at WR and can be doubled.

During NFL Draft season, my concern with Daniels as a prospect was that his playing style/lack of body armor would lead to annual injuries and late-season regression. Still believe that to be the case. He's just so skinny.

Agree on HOU/JAX. HOU is overvalued, but are we supposed to bet on Mac Jones with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter in his face?

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago
TEN +6 is tempting. Jayden Daniels is injured and struggling, and WAS could be without Andrew Wylie, Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler. 0 1

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago - hide
TEN +6 is tempting. Jayden Daniels is injured and struggling, and WAS could be without Andrew Wylie, Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler. 0 1

Karensman • 33 Posts (14

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter : I agree that TEN + 6 appears tempting. I don't know if Daniels is still hurt or that Wash is regressing to the mean, but I'm not interested in wagering on them at this time. Not thrilled with this week's schedule; I couldn't lay 4 points with DAL against a good college team and there appears to be traps all over the place. Are you confident in laying 3 with the RAMS on the road in NO ? I'm leaning towards the Cards + 3 1/2 but that is more a fade against the overrated Vikings than an endorsement of the Cards. The wrong team is favored in the Bengal-Steeler game, and I'm interested in the DOL + 3 1/2 but not at - 3. I'm not confident that the TEXANS should be favored by - 5 on the road but want no part of the Jags without Lawrence. Tough week to lay points and not really a great week to take underdogs. Might be a good week to watch !

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago
@v2micca Ardent Jets fan here. You are 100% right. The Jets are receiving nothing but negative press right now. If/when Rodgers is benched or injured, the switch to Tyrod Taylor might actually push the Jets toward underrated territory. Even at 35, Taylor probably still has functional mobility - which Rodgers absolutely doesn't anymore. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago
TEN +7.5 CHI +3 NE +7.5 0 1

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Baird

The more I think about it, the more confident I am that this is going to be a "bad Jameis" game. All the signs are there: Crappy weather...Chubb and Conklin shells of their former selves...no viable LT vs. a PIT defense that has been letting T.J. Watt pick his spots against both edges...Minkah Fitzpatrick waaay overdue for a pick-six...a potential feast for Harris/Warren vs. a JO-Kless CLE defense that has forgotten how to tackle...it could get ugly. So much so that PIT might get comfortably ahead, ease up, and let Winston feed Njoku for some garbage time goodness or something. I like PIT and the OVER.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Baird

I'm glad you said that about the Cowboys. Thought I was alone in sensing emerging value with DAL, even with their two-headed abomination at QB.

As you said, a lot of key contributors are filtering back into the DAL lineup. However, Jake Ferguson, Zach Martin and Tyler Smith not practicing has me worried that it may just be one step forward, two steps back for the Cowboys, and that would be in line with the Murphy's Law-type season they're having. (I read that parts of the AT&T Stadium roof were falling onto the field Monday. Things are literally falling apart for Jerry Jones.)

Still, I'm very tempted to take the plunge with DAL +10.5 @WAS. At this juncture, I think DAL might be sneaking into undervalued territory, while I'm confident WAS is a bit overvalued right now. (Daniels is hurt and barely moving around back there. He hasn't been right in weeks.) If I'm right, I wanna get out ahead of it.

DAL has been taking snot-bubble beatings at home this season, but they're keeping games within six points on the road...rivalry game where DAL officially has nothing to lose and WAS may be feeling pressure to keep up in the WC race...just feeling a DAL cover if Martin and Smith play.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Karensman

Nick Chubb is a month shy of his 29th birthday. That's old relative to RBs, and Chubb is a very old 29. Last season's leg injury was vomit-inducing, and he had an equally gross leg injury in college.

Chubb is the heart and soul of the team - so his return has some short-term "good vibes" value - but he just doesn't look the same. Given his age/mileage, I think it would be a miracle if he ever will.

As for Stafford - yeah, everyone in the NFL is playing hurt to some degree, but not all injuries are equal. From what I've gathered, Stafford's main issue is his back - and back issues are often career-killers. Stafford is approaching 37. He's still a high-level QB, but It just feels like he's on borrowed time.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@carettirichard

Once Doug Pederson is fired, I'm guessing JAX will sell the fan base on the idea that Pederson's awful coaching, a bad O-line and injuries are what have been holding Lawrence back. Pretty sure he gets a fresh start in '25. He just turned 25.

I don't think JAX is a long ways from being competitive. (Especially in the AFC South.) They have some talented young building blocks at important positions (WR1, EDGE1 and 2, CB1). With better coaching and some O-line and DT upgrades they could rebound in '25.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Baird

The rain/wind should be advantageous for PIT. It only strengthens the Boswell>Hopkins angle.

I think Nick Chubb may be cooked; if Winston has to throw it around, the TOs could easily pile up for CLE. Harris/Warren were biting off chunks vs. BAL, so running on CLE should be no problem.

I'm liking CHI as a home dog. Very often, mid-season coordinator firings are just a case of somebody taking the fall for organization-wide problems, but in the case of Shane Waldron, I think he really was the problem. The Bears should improve going forward, and I don't trust Sam Darnold in this spot.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago
@Baird Yeah, you're right. Hopkins was pretty good for a while after replacing York, but he's gone right back to being the same bad kicker he was before coming to CLE. Meanwhile, Boswell is a machine. Even if Myles Garrett dominates vs. PIT (which he usually does), the game likely comes down to ST. Betting CLE is probably getting too cute. Any early leans? 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Baird

Freakin' Taysom Hill, man. Feels like he's been around since 2002, and he's one of those Mormon mission BYU grads...how is he not like 47 years old? Spends most of his time injured, only popping up to go nuclear when it ruins NO's draft position and absolutely screws me in betting and DFS tournaments. I wish he'd just stop.

Just piss-poor special teams and overall tackling from CLE. Rare quiet game from Myles Garrett. I still think CLE was the right side, although I probably underrated the absence of JO-K. He would have come in handy in limiting Hill.

I'm probably a glutton for punishment, but I'm sniffing around CLE +4 at home vs. PIT. Feels like a trap game for the Steelers.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago
@Baird Keep in mind that when I handicap the Rams, the possibility that Stafford is more injured than anyone realizes is always baked in. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Baird

As a Rams fan, how do you like their WC chances? I'm having trouble getting a read on them. Unprepared and mistake-prone was what I expected from MIA, not the Rams. Just feels like there's some angle I'm missing that might have them overvalued right now. Youth? So many of their key contributors are 1st/2nd year guys...

I think the Havenstein injury could be a real problem vs. the Pats. Keion White and Deatrich Wise are a quietly dominant tag team at LDE.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago - hide
PIT, IND win SU. LAC, ATL, NYJ win in blowouts. Feeling TB and HOU covers. Happy hunting, gentlemen. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago
@Baird Everyone is acting as if ATL winning the NFC South is a forgone conclusion. Even with ATL's sweep of TB, I'm not so sure about that. ATL's next three: @DEN/LAC/@MIN TB's next three: @NYG/@CAR/LV The Bucs could easily pull ahead of ATL in the NFC South as soon as early December. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago
PIT, IND win SU. LAC, ATL, NYJ win in blowouts. Feeling TB and HOU covers. Happy hunting, gentlemen. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago - hide
PIT, IND win SU. LAC, ATL, NYJ win in blowouts. Feeling TB and HOU covers. Happy hunting, gentlemen. 0 0

Baird • 110 Posts (74

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Mr.Bitter - "TB is still undervalued"

I agree completely
1. They have wins against good teams - WAS, DET & PHI
2. The losses arent bad - DEN (letdown game), ATL (should have split) + BAL, KC & SF

The bye came at the right time - Evans & Tykee should be back by 11/24, Otton has come on strong and the fight in Mayfield is impressive. The rest of their schedule is cake, except @ LAC.

Remaining favored - NYG, CAR (twice), LVR, DAL & NO.

TB > 8.5 wins (2U to win 2)

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Karensman

Betting the Browns is icky, but a few things:

Stefanski is a solid coach, IMO. No coach would have succeeded in the situation management forced upon him with the Watson signing.

I don't know much about Darren Rizzi, but I know this: Teams almost always get a pronounced one-game bump upon an in-season coaching change. Even with that bump, the Saints still would have lost at home to an obviously flat ATL squad had it not been for some last-minute clock mismanagement by the Falcons and three missed Younghoe Koo FGs. Like Marquez Valdez-Scantling's stat line, that victory was an obvious fluke.

Kamara may be the best offensive weapon in this matchup, but beyond him, it's crap like MVS, Foster Moreau and some guy called Mason Tipton for the Saints. I'll take Njoku, a healthy Chubb/Ford RB tag team, and the Tillman/Jeudy/Moore WR trio over what the Saints are trotting out any day. (Small sample size, but since CLE traded Amari Cooper, Cedric Tillman is second only to Ja'Marr Chase by many WR performance metrics.) The Saints - already down C Erik McCoy - may also be without the left side of their O-line for this one. The NO offensive depth chart is a disaster.

As for MIA - I'm not sure how legit Monday's win was. Not sure if a game vs. a team as untalented and poorly-coached as LV will provide us any clarity, either. Kinda wait-and-see with MIA. Tua isn't pushing the ball downfield, Tyreek is obviously hurt, and the Austin Jackson injury means a RT Kendall Lamm vs. LDE Maxx Crosby glaring mismatch. A Raiders win wouldn't shock me, but I'm not touching that game.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Karensman

Almost forgot: KC/BUF - Leaning KC but probably just gonna sit back and enjoy. The media consensus seems to be that KC has smoke-and-mirrored their way to 9-0 and their fun stops Sunday. Fair, but I wonder if that narrative is just enough blood in the water for Reid/Mahomes. Also not liking BUF possibly down Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid in an all-hands-on-deck game.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Karensman

Regarding the CIN/LAC spread - I think bettors are still leaning hard into the "this is a must-win for the Bengals" angle. It's an obvious and fair take, but it can be argued that CIN has been close to (or even in) must-win territory for weeks now, yet they continue laying eggs. Expecting this week to be the week the Bengals suddenly flip the switch is starting to feel like definition of insanity from a betting perspective. Joe Burrow is playing as well as can possibly be expected, yet CIN keeps coming out flat and losing. The CIN O-line sucks, the defense is a one-man show (Hendrickson), and Zac Taylor just can't light a fire under his team while being a miserable in-game manager. All the evidence says that CIN just isn't very good, yet bettors are falling into the trap of valuing them by what they should be instead of what they are.

My top play is CLE. I think the Browns win SU - maybe even comfortably - so getting any points is a gift. The Saints used up all their "We finally fired our crappy coach!" mojo last week and will come down to earth. Matchup wise, all signs point to a "Good Jameis" game (CLE offense getting healthy, gutted NO secondary) and domination from Myles Garrett (injured/weak NO tackles).

I'm passing on BAL/PIT. Always tight rivalry game that could easily hinge on some in-game injury or suspect calls (as you suggested). However, I'm not comfortable with the recent Russell Wilson hype and could see him fade a bit, not unlike Justin Fields' early-season rise and fall. Just a hunch - not bettable just yet.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago - hide
PIT, IND win SU. LAC, ATL, NYJ win in blowouts. Feeling TB and HOU covers. Happy hunting, gentlemen. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Baird

You got lucky with KC - I got lucky with TB. I'll take it, but - honestly - I stuck with my "TB is still undervalued" angle that had been profitable all season one week too long. SF should have won that game by double digits. I still think the Bucs could be a thorn in other teams' sides down the stretch, but I'm off them for a while (especially with the Wirfs injury).

SF looks poised to get a lather going, but I still don't believe they're quite what they're cracked up to be. Placekicker is a serious problem, the right side of their O-line is weak and that defensive depth chart is thoroughly mediocre beyond Warner and Bosa. They feel like a playoff upset victim waiting to happen.

IND was my least-confident play. I knew there was a good chance that Flacco may have already fallen off the cliff, and it appears he has. I mistakenly ignored that hunch while leaning too hard into the BUF look-ahead angle. BUF is just so well-coached. McDermott/Allen seem to have a poor man's Belichick/Brady thing going where they can plug anybody into auxiliary roles and just keep rolling along.

I just flat-out whiffed on the Jets (and Cardinals). AGAIN. Both teams have been radioactive for me all year, yet I keep flushing money down those toilets. As a Jets fan, I should have known that they won't beat a decent team until it's later in the season and it's in a situation that will knock them out of draft position to finally get a franchise QB. It's just what they do.

Still not sold on ARI. Their success isn't sustainable given the talent level on that defensive depth chart. I'll die on that hill. They won't finish ahead of the 49ers or Rams, and I'll very likely be heavy on SEA in Week 12.

Yeah, Conner is RB2 on my fantasy team and I figured his numbers would begin to even out, especially with Benson inevitably getting more run regardless of game script.

Your CLE lean looks rock solid. It's common for teams to get that initial bump from an in-season coaching change, especially when the axed coach was thoroughly hated and the interim coach is a likeable rah-rah type like Pierce/Rizzi. The Saints will undoubtedly come right back down to earth. Taliese Fuaga was injured and Trevor Penning sucks in pass pro; the Falcons simply don't have rushers capable of taking advantage, but Myles Garrett will take turns on both edges and wreak havoc.

Always appreciate your input and congrats on a nice week. GL going forward.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 4 month(s) ago - hide
PIT, IND win SU. LAC, ATL, NYJ win in blowouts. Feeling TB and HOU covers. Happy hunting, gentlemen. 0 0

Baird • 110 Posts (74

) •
1 years 4 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter - good call on TB/HOU covers (even w Collins out). You guys were spot on w/ Ind for a while, but BUF is for real. I do like IND next week knowing Jets season is done. Wish I stuck to my HUGE bet idea on AZ. Oh well, teasers still came through.

Hope you made money this week. I got lucky w/ KC and lost a few on Conner. Overall +9.4 today

Looking ahead - teasing CLE 8.5 vs Saints. I looked back to Antonio Pierce in 2023 after they showed up vs NYG

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 5 month(s) ago
@carettirichard DET's coaching staff is operating at another level right now. I thought the Hutchinson injury would take the wind out of their sails...nope. I thought the Branch ejection would swing the game in GB's favor...nope. DET doesn't do excuses. Such a tough-minded team. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago

@Baird

I think BUF is most likely to be the weird one that loses. The Bills are no doubt the better team with better coaching, but the Dolphins just plain score a lot of points when Tua is under center. This is also must-win time for MIA, whereas BUF is so comfortably ahead in the AFC East that there may already be a need to manufacture motivation. The true QUESTIONABLE tags for Amari Cooper and Christian Benford are also concerning if you're on BUF.

I can't back ARI with any confidence, even with all of the O-line problems and defensive injuries for CHI. The ARI defense is just so untalented. While their 4-4 record is commendable considering their SOS, it still feels like a flimsy 4-4. That defense will start hemorrhaging points at any moment.

Tough slate. I could go either way on most of the games this weekend. The most solid bets are ATL -3 and PHI -7.5, IMO. I'm kinda liking CLE as a home dog and definitely liking DET as a road favorite. (DET is a tough-minded team built to control the LOS, so the "Goff/dome team" angle as overblown, IMO. DET could easily dominate the trenches in what is shaping up to be a slop fest, especially with GB center Josh Myers DOUBTFUL.)

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 5 month(s) ago
@WFDevTeam That is in all seriousness an excellent point. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago

@Karensman

IND/MIN jumped out at me too - especially with the Darrisaw injury - but I've hesitated knowing the Vikings might get Blake Cashman and T.J. Hockenson back. There's serious potential for a "last team with the ball wins" game with Flacco replacing Richardson, and it feels like I'm usually on the wrong side of those games. I saw the Richardson benching coming about the time he checked himself out of the game vs. HOU, and just went with the OVER on 45.5. Could easily clear 50, IMO.

I'm going to continue to fade the Jets until it's not profitable. Every "Which Teams Will Turn Their Season Around In The Second Half?" article I've read this week has the Jets at the top of the list, which tells me that the public still can't wrap their head around the idea that the Jets are no more than exactly what they appear to be. There's still meat on that bone.

The (hostage) situation with NYJ/Rodgers is similar to CLE/Watson was in that everything is predicated on the QB holding up his end of the bargain, otherwise everything falls apart. It doesn't matter if the Jets sign all of Rodgers' BFFs and every 2019 NFC Pro Bowler - if Rodgers is drastically compromised by age/injury (which is becoming more apparent by the week) then the season is lost, especially with Rodgers apparently resisting treatment in favor of "cayenne and water' home treatment. (Wish I was kidding.)

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago

@carettirichard

Yeah, I've been here forever and I've never seen evidence of Eagles bias. It's weird that it keeps getting mentioned.

I'm guessing the rash of injuries on defense and at WR is Walt's main reason for TB's low ranking, and that's fair. Still, having the Bucs at 27 - below CLE, JAX and NO - is nuts. The Bucs have beaten DET, WAS and PHI for chrissakes. They'll likely drop their next two (KC, SF), but their schedule to close out the season is Charmin-soft. (NYG, CAR twice, LV, NO, DAL) Assuming they get Evans and a few DBs healthy for the stretch run, the Bucs are still a competitive team capable of a winning record.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago

@Karensman

Cousins is a good play. Murray has become too unpredictable.

ATL/TB has definite shootout potential, even without Godwin/Evans. The Falcons have no pass rush and no Justin Simmons means more room over the middle/downfield. I have a hunch the Bucs paste together an effective passing game with swings to R. White (he's much better in that role than as a rusher) and a ton of stuff over the middle to Otton, McMillan and maybe even Sterling Shepard. (Shepard was Mayfield's security blanket at Oklahoma. They have history.)

GL and enjoy

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago

@Baird

Still love the Colts. I got them at +5.5, and - unless I'm missing something - would take them in a heartbeat at the current +4.5. I'm with Walt - IND could easily win outright.

HOU can be had up the gut, especially now with the injuries at LB and S. I'm assuming the IND coaching staff is smart enough to put designed runs for Anthony Richardson back on the menu. If so, AR and Taylor should be able to control the clock. Worse case scenario is Richardson craps the bed and gets benched for Flacco, in which case Pittman and Downs eat. Either way, the Colts should make it a game.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago

@Baird

Yeah, trends don't last forever and every game is different. I only consider trends when I've exhausted every other possible angle and all things are equal.

The Parsons/Bland news sobered me up. That, and the realization that DAL - at 3-3 - likely isn't in "must win" mode yet. That could be next week @ ATL. My initial lean just feels a week too early. Should Parsons and/or Bland return @ ATL, I'll probably be on the Cowboys.

I still think the 49ers are slightly overrated, but the Cowboys are really hurting. There was talk of Tyler Smith sticking at LT - which I liked - but it looks like DAL will continue to ride out Guyton's growing pains. Bosa could easily go nuclear on Guyton/Steele. A dominant Bosa game, a healthy dose of Jordan Mason (DAL has no answer vs. the run) and a sprinkle of Kittle should be enough for something like a 26-20 SF win.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 5 month(s) ago
@Baird Was also surprised by no mention of Gardeck. The ARI defense officially has no pass rush, and - no offense to Dennis Gardeck - the fact that Gardeck was the front seven defender ARI could least afford to lose shows just how little talent they have. Take away Budda Baker and that's little better than a practice squad-quality depth chart. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 5 month(s) ago
UPDATE: Parsons and Bland are OUT for DAL, with Kendricks questionable. The forecast is now calling for 10-15 MPH winds, so weather shouldn't be too much of a problem. Seriously questioning my DAL pick now, especially after reading a deep dive into DAL's extreme vulnerability to outside zone running schemes. Also worried about Nick Bosa taking turns on DAL's turnstile OTs. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 5 month(s) ago
@WFDevTeam That's what I mean. As bad as the Patriots are, that +7 at home vs. the Jets is tempting too. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 5 month(s) ago
@WFDevTeam So Panthers over Broncos it is. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 5 month(s) ago
@Mr. Football The Prescott Cowboys always seem to play their best when the least is expected of them, and their worst when everyone thinks they've finally turned the corner to "SB contender". 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago

@Karensman

Regarding Cooper Kupp - I think the Rams are trying to maximize his trade value before the Nov. 5 deadline. Get him as healthy as possible for a high-volume showcase game tonight, then sell high. Maybe squeeze a 3rd-rounder from a slot WR-needy team like PIT or something.

Yeah, Baker Mayfield's slim MVP chances may have evaporated with the Godwin injury. Godwin's slot role is the fulcrum of Liam Coen's scheme. Huge loss. If any NFC QB will challenge Lamar Jackson/Patrick Mahomes for MVP it's probably Jared Goff at this point. Longshot though. (I'm guessing Lamar gets his third. Feels like he's on a mission.)

My favorite plays this week are IND and DAL.

I caught IND +5.5 figuring that line would tighten up once/if Jonathan Taylor and DeForest Buckner are cleared to play. Even if they don't, the HOU defense is soft up the middle and severely banged up right now, and the offense is in an awful rut without Nico Collins. IND could easily win SU.

Caught DAL +4.5. That line could tighten, too. (Bland, Parsons, Kendricks, Deebo) There's value in fading SF right now, IMO. They're still being priced closer to recent 49ers vintage than what they actually are right now. Their offense is injury-plagued, their defense is susceptible and they have a real problem at kicker. With 25-30 MPH winds in the forecast, Aubrey could give DAL a huge advantage in this one - assuming he doesn't miss the game for jury duty.

I still like the LAC's Wild Card chances, especially once their CBs and WRs get healthy. Beyond BUF/BAL/HOU/KC, the AFC is a jumble. I think PIT and DEN will cool down and have seen no indication that Jeff Ulbrich and Aaron Rodgers are capable of turning the Jets around.

The Titans just suck. Ran Carthon is making all the wrong decisions, from letting Mike Vrabel go to overpaying for Spagnuolo scheme-specific fool's gold L'Jarius Sneed.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago - hide

At this point, a bet on CLE is a bet that the DEF/ST will score a TD or two. The offense flat-out doesn't score points. How long before Myles Garrett and company tap out?

It's like a restaurant where the line cooks are constantly getting slammed while the grossly overpaid chef does nothing but sit in his office getting hand j*bs from waitresses. Eventually the cooks are gonna lay down their spatulas and tongs and walk out.

CIN 38 CLE 12

Karensman • 33 Posts (14

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter: I had forgot that Baker used to be the QB for Cleveland. He was good but not great but the Browns fell in love with Watson and gave up the 'farm' to acquire him and set the franchise back for an extended period of time. Yes, Baker has improved and was having an incredible season, but he just lost his top 2 receivers which will probably kill his MVP chances. If he is as good as I think he is; he could still be a 'wager on' QB until the oddsmakers catch up.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago

At this point, a bet on CLE is a bet that the DEF/ST will score a TD or two. The offense flat-out doesn't score points. How long before Myles Garrett and company tap out?

CIN 38 CLE 12

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 5 month(s) ago
Name the five teams better than the Ravens. 0 1

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 5 month(s) ago - hide
Name the five teams better than the Ravens. 0 1

	WFDevTeam • 139 Posts (30 ) • 1 years 5 month(s) ago wfdevteam
@Mr. Bitter I like that there are only four ahead of them in this week's power rankings. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 5 month(s) ago
Too many QBs in the top-15. By draft day, there will likely be three top-15 QB possibilities at most; Sanders, Milroe (Anthony Richardson-type upside swing/reach) and maybe Ward. 1 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago

"This is Cleveland's Super Bowl"

Teams don't trade their best offensive weapon right before the Super Bowl.

The Bengals/Giants game was NY's Super Bowl (Daboll went for it on seemingly every 4th down), yet CIN - in a flat spot off an OT heartbreaker to BAL - still managed to cover. At 2-4, CIN is still in must-win mode while CLE is already trading vets in preparation for a post-Watson rebuild.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago - hide

"This is Cleveland's Super Bowl"

Teams don't trade their best offensive weapon right before the Super Bowl.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago

UPDATE:

On Thursday, Browns DE Za'Darius Smith was asked by a reporter about the possibility of being traded to Detroit.

"I didn't even know about it. I'm trying to stay positive; but now that you say that, Detroit might be a good look, a good feel for me...hopefully we can get a win this week and get back on the right track...But if I was to go to Detroit, I would like it"

I tell ya, these Browns seem absolutely focused like a laser on their upcoming Super Bowl vs. the Bengals.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago

@Karensman

With you on the LAC/ARI OVER.

We know about ARI's defense, but they also happen to be the worst defense vs. explosive runs, and JK Dobbins just happens to be near the top of the league in explosive run %...with Slater and Alt now healthy. The Chargers will run at will.

On the other side, LAC are near the bottom in explosive passing plays allowed, and might be without their top 3 CBs and likely without LOLB Joey Bosa to take advantage of ARI's O-line weak link at RT. Murray is overdue an eruption. I think that 44 gets dusted.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago - hide

At this point, a bet on CLE is a bet that the DEF/ST will score a TD or two. The offense flat-out doesn't score points. How long before Myles Garrett and company tap out?

CIN 38 CLE 12

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 5 month(s) ago
@raindoggg Waitress shaming. Tsk tsk. DO. BETTER. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago - hide

At this point, a bet on CLE is a bet that the DEF/ST will score a TD or two. The offense flat-out doesn't score points. How long before Myles Garrett and company tap out?

CIN 38 CLE 12

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago

@Karensman

Not a comedian, just find humor to be a more fun and effective way of making a point than the usual antagonistic dialogue seen online.

Baker Mayfield is the QB I'm talking about. CLE did him dirty upon signing Watson.

Mayfield is the best QB in the NFC right now. Mahomes and Allen are commonly at the top of MVP race lists, but Mayfield has been more productive by every metric. I get that there's more to winning the MVP than raw numbers, but check this out:

Mayfield leads the NFL in TD passes (15) by three. (Mahomes has 10 TD passes, Allen has 6.)

Mayfield is 4th in the NFL in completion % at 70.9. (Mahomes 69.4, Allen 62.8)

Mayfield is 2nd in the NFL in QBR. (109.4, just behind Joe Burrow's 110.2 - Mahomes 88.9, Allen 106.8)

But what about the stuff Mahomes and Allen can do with their legs/off-platform?

Mayfield is averaging 6.5 Rushing YPC, with 2 rushing TDs. (Lamar Jackson is averaging 6.3 YPC with 2 TD, Allen 5.1 YPC, Mahomes 3.6 YPC. Mayfield is behind only Kyler Murray's ridiculous 8.7 in YPC)

Mayfield's stats aren't just empty calories. He's coming up big in clutch moments and winning games, often despite an injury-wrecked defense and ineffective running game. It's not a fluke - his improvement over the last two seasons has been easily observable. Basically, his career arc is the direct opposite of Watson's, adding one more to the scroll of reasons the Watson signing has been catastrophic for the Browns and made them an unwagerable team.

Sorry, but I'm hoping Flacco starts. Got Josh Downs FLEXing on my fantasy team. Looks like it'll be Richardson though. GL on your end.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago - hide

At this point, a bet on CLE is a bet that the DEF/ST will score a TD or two. The offense flat-out doesn't score points. How long before Myles Garrett and company tap out?

CIN 38 CLE 12

	raindoggg • 0 Posts (1 ) • 1 years 5 month(s) ago
@Karensman I think he's a waitress actually. 1 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago - hide

At this point, a bet on CLE is a bet that the DEF/ST will score a TD or two. The offense flat-out doesn't score points. How long before Myles Garrett and company tap out?

CIN 38 CLE 12

Karensman • 33 Posts (14

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter: I'm short on time so I have to make this quick but are you a comedian or joke writer for one ? Not only is your analysis very informative but I spilled my coffee this morning laughing because it was hilarious. I have one quick question though : who is the QB that Cleveland kicked to the curb that is a candidate for MVP ? Are you talking Flacco ? BYW, I'm hoping that the Colts go back to Richardson this week.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago

@Droford

I loled.

Patriots, 4 units (loss)

Raiders, 3 units (loss)

Panthers, 5 units (loss)

Jets, 8 units (loss)

"I don't know what I did to deserve this horrible luck, but it's been killing us since the beginning of last season. if anyone has any ideas on how to reverse my fortune, please let me know!"

It's almost like directionless, crappy teams with crappy coaches and crappy QBs tend to pile up penalties and turnovers and stuff. It's crazy.

My suggestion to Walt to recoup those losses is to back the Browns because the ghost of Nick Chubb might play. He'll surely hit the ground limping behind Michael Dunn and Zak Zinter into a CIN D-line that's finally fully healthy after returning half it's rotation from injury over the last few weeks. It doesn't matter that the Bengals will stack the box because Deshaun Watson has no viable weapons and can't throw a rock into the ocean anyway. It's Nick Chubb!

Also, CIN is 2-4 and must win to keep playoff hopes alive. Joe Burrow and the Bengals have been down this road before, having overcome slow starts to make two recent AFC Championship games and nearly making the playoffs behind Jake Freakin' Browning. So there's no doubt CIN will come out flat against a CLE squad that's gotta be totally fired up after scoring that one offensive TD three weeks ago and trading away their only reliable offensive weapon.

Also also, Watson is the worst QB in the NFL and hated by his teammates, but will remain the starter by ownership decree. Meanwhile, the CLE QB that teammates actually liked that was kicked to the curb in favor of Watson is now arguably the best QB in the NFC and a fringe MVP candidate. Nothing but good vibes in Cleveland! The Browns are pumped and will totally beat the Bengals, who have nothing to play for because Nick Chubb and CIN/CLE home/road history overdue to even out! Easy money!

;

;gt;

0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago

@Karensman

I don't think that Amari Cooper was ever really a game-changer. Like Walt said, his value lies in route-running/efficiency/reliability; a Henry Ellard/Isaac Bruce-type that remains an effective starter even at 33-34 years old. I don't think he's slipped this season - I think he was just done with waving at Watson's inaccurate passes. (He was visibly frustrated the last few games.)

Reliability is exactly what Josh Allen needs at WR. It was good of CLE to trade Cooper to a contender that will feed him properly. It was also a clear indication that they know the season is lost. Laying cabbage on a team that has packed it in and is led by a very expensive Zach Wilson just doesn't seem like a good idea. DEF/ST TDs aren't going to happen every week.

I shudder to think what the CLE offense will look like now. A million Jerry Jeudy wind sprints broken up by the occasional dropped pass I guess. Elijah Moore...I don't even bother to check if he's active or inactive during DFS research anymore because it really doesn't matter. The Browns better hope Njoku stays healthy. (He won't. The downside of being an Adonis is that you're also a pulled muscle waiting to happen.)

What you said about recognizing and getting ahead of the curve on teams that are improving/trending in the right direction is such an important aspect of betting. Foundational, really. I always try to sniff out the dog with a sustainable plan/direction vs. the directionless favorite.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 5 month(s) ago
The CLE offense hasn't scored 20 points or reached 300 yards in any game this season. The offense has scored once in it's last 29 drives. Until Watson is benched, the Browns ARE crappy. 1 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago

"Deshaun Watson just played his best game of the season"

Watson had 47 yards at halftime and didn't lead a TD drive in the game. Again. His QBR was 34.6, somehow his 2nd highest of the season.

That 11-for-11 3rd-quarter completion streak was just fluky momentum-riding from the Myles Garrett/Rodney McCloud blocked FG/TD that made the halftime score 10-10 instead of PHI up 13-3...and possibly halftime locker room threats from Garrett, who is likely tired of the defense carrying the team.

"Watson had both of his starting tackles on the field for the first time all season"

Like it matters. Watson still took 5 sacks and 10 knockdowns. He's taken 5+ sacks in 4 of 6 starts and 31 sacks this season; 10 more than the next highest number. He took 4 sacks p/game last season with a healthy interior O-line and Wills Jr. in the lineup. He hasn't accounted for even 200 yards or more than one TD in any game this season.

Wills Jr. sucks. He has since his rookie season. He had two false start penalties (including 4th-and-goal) and a 42.4 PFF grade vs. PHI. This is typical Wills Jr. stuff when he's not injured. He was PFF's 56th-ranked OT last season. (51.3)

Conklin (57.9 PFF) is a shell of his former self, just as high-mileage Nick Chubb will assuredly be when he returns from a horrific knee injury and has to run behind the likes of Michael Dunn and Zac Zinter (41.6 PFF).

Fun stats:

The CLE offense (13.5 PPG) is last in the NFL by every imaginable metric, including a 13.8% 3rd-down conversion rate. The offense hasn't scored in it's last 29 drives.

Through six games, Watson is last in the NFL in EPA, QBR, sacks taken and pocket success rate. (Behind Will Levis, mind you.) His pocket success rate (33.3%) is ahead of only David Carr, Josh Rosen, Akili Smith, Blaine Gabbert and JaMarcus Russell this millennium.

Since 2006, of 566 passers graded through weeks 1-6, Watson is ranked:

QBR - 558th

Yards p/drop back - 565th

1st Down Rate - 566th

Three seasons into his 5-year contract, Watson has never thrown for 300 yards and has accounted for 2+ TDs twice.

The Watson signing was a catastrophic blunder and his coaches and teammates know it. (Amari Cooper has 100% checked out.) Watson is absolutely broken and I'm not sure if Anthony Munoz and Jon Ogden would make a difference at this point. Until Watson is benched, this is a bottom-5 team.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago

The Bills had as many penalties as the Jets. Tyler Bass missed a FG and an XP.

BUF has an injury-depleted defense, a hodgepodge of crap like Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel at WR and a backup RB, yet would have beat the Jets by double digits on the road if not for a Hail Mary.

Risk/reward offseason signings (Mike Williams, Tyron Smith, Haason Reddick, Javon Kinlaw) that the Jets were counting on to patch up weaknesses along the starting lineup have been more detriment than asset.

The Jets are already on their second HC for chrissake. Ulbrich seemed in over his head vs. BUF. So NY replaced one "good DC, shouldn't be a HC" with another one. Wonderful.

The Jets shouldn't be in the top-15 right now, let alone the top-10.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 5 month(s) ago

The injury report confusion mentioned in the IND/TEN write-up is becoming too common. It's getting old. I get that teams manipulate the injury report to create uncertainty for their opponents, but you'd think the league would want to minimize uncertainty for bettors/fantasy players considering how huge those markets are to the NFL's financial success. The league has to figure out a way to tighten this up.

@Walt

You're overestimating the impact Wills Jr. and Conklin might have on what's going on in CLE. Wills isn't very good and Conklin is an aging, walking surgery scar who's likely washed. Lack of continuity on the O-line is obviously going to be an issue for any team, but the performance drop off from Wills Jr./Conklin to James Hudson III/Dawand Jones hasn't been the problem it's made out to be. The problem is Deshaun Watson. Don't feel like a noob for fading CLE; the noob thing would be to assume Watson will suddenly do anything but suck.

That said, the +9 worries me. This could easily be the game where the Browns get behind a few scores early and finally yank Watson for Winston. Winston is obviously no savior, but he can fling it and provide enough spark for a backdoor.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 6 month(s) ago

The Jets shouldn't sniff the top ten. I was a cautiously optimistic fan going into this season, but only under the assumptions that we'd finally have a relatively injury-free season, Haason Reddick would be signed, the run defense would improve, and Rodgers wasn't washed and the offense would gel by this point. None of that has happened, and assuming any of it will looks like a bad bet at this point.

Also: The Jets are poorly coached. They're inconsistent and unfocused, and have given Rodgers too much influence over the offensive scheme. A team that gets the Broncos at home on ten days rest only to lay an egg shouldn't be in the top ten.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 6 month(s) ago

EARLY GAME STUFF:

NO +2.5 I liked ATL -1.5, but the one-point bump in a game for which I have no solid feel has me spooked. The Saints have a battered O-line, but so do the Falcons. (Storm Norton vs. Carl Granderson could be a serious problem for ATL.) I could see one of those silly Taysom Hill-fueled Saints Ws here just as easily as a Younghoe Koo walk-off FG. Taking the points.

CIN -4.5 I'm wondering if the Bengals are broken and should be faded until we see evidence of the switch being flipped. I'm very tempted to get out ahead of that possibility here.

LAR +3 Coaching mismatch and another Kyren Williams smash spot.

GB -2.5 Jordan Love is an assassin vs. the blitz. I'm counting on negligible rust from Love, and for Sam Darnold to start showing signs of turning back into a pumpkin.

HOU -5.5 The Jags might come out with a little fire in their bellies and keep it close in the first half behind a healthy dose of Etienne, but HOU will eventually pull away with a 2nd half air show. There's also a strong possibility that JAX should simply be faded until Pederson is canned.

IND +2.5 Going contrarian here. In a bizarre turn of events, Fields finally commits a few TOs and Richardson finds moderate, efficient success behind some Jonathan Taylor chain-moving.

The PIT O-line is an underrated weakness. No Kwity Paye hurts IND, but I think Laiatu Latu steps up to menace Fields into a few mistakes.

PIT wins on a Boswell FG, but only by two. Then next week they'll destroy the Cowboys.

NYJ -8 I anticipate no letdown for the Jets here. They are well-rested and focused.

The Jets and new WR2 Mike Williams are owed some good karma. This is the season they get it. With Garrett Wilson erased by Pat Surtain, Williams steps up for a 2 TD day. Breece Hall rolls for 100+ and the defense confounds Bo Nix on the way to a workmanlike 27-13 W.

TB +1 As long as Vita Vea plays and isn't too compromised by that sprained knee, I like the home dog here.

Happy hunting, fellas.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 6 month(s) ago - hide

I wanna get ahead of the curve on a couple of NFC West teams.

OVERRATED San Francisco 49ers

Sure, the loss to the Rams was kinda fluky...but it wasn't totally fluky. I'm not as comfortable assuming Kyle Shanahan will right the ship and coast to another playoff spot as I've been in recent years.

Like Sean McVay and Bill Belichick, Shanahan's stability/system ensure the 49ers will never be an easy out. However, I'm getting the sense that this might be the season where we see injury/depth attrition become too much to overcome.

Christian McCaffrey is reportedly seeking treatment from overseas doctors for his degenerative leg issues. That can't be good. Any Shanahan team will be able to run the ball, but it was a healthy McCaffrey that became Brock Purdy's best friend and brought this offense from good to great.

Serious problems are brewing at OT. Colton McIvitz is the worst RT in the NFL (with no viable alternative on the roster), and Trent Williams is showing signs of mortality. Williams is 36 years old and the injuries are becoming more frequent. Purdy is fine with a healthy McCaffrey and airtight edge protection, but without those the house of cards collapses.

The SF defense is not as good as recent vintage. The Kyren Williams explosion was no fluke.

This isn't that foundational Bosa/D.J. Jones/Buckner/Armstead D-line with high-quality depth like Arden Key, Charles Omenihu, Javon Kinlaw, Dee Ford, etc., rotating in. With the Hargrove injury, the current D-line is just Bosa and some JAGS, with subpar depth. With Dre Greenlaw's injury shaping up to be a season-long issue, this is a mediocre unit beyond Bosa and Warner.

UNDERRATED Seattle Seahawks

Many assume that SEA's 3-0 record is just fattening up on cupcakes - and that's fair - but I'm guessing that assumption is wrong.

First of all, recent SEA teams would have lost one of those games. Pete Carroll's schemes and rah-rah act had grown stale. The new regime is fresh and innovative. I'm probably leaning too much on the "good vibe" in Seattle, but I think it'll prove sustainable as the Grubb/Macdonald schemes fully click.

I'm predicting that in a few weeks the Grubb/Geno Smith marriage will join O'Connell/Darnold in the "reclamation QB renaissance" narrative. The SEA offense is ready for takeoff, and once Walker is healthy they'll be humming. If RT Abraham Lucas can ever get healthy, they'll really be cooking with gas.

As a Jets fan, I'll NEVER predict a Geno Smith-led team to contend for the SB, but 10 or 11 wins and a surprise run to the NFC Championship are on the table for SEA.

gt;t;

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 6 month(s) ago
@WFDevTeam I'm guessing they lose @DET Monday night. Just too many injuries along that defensive front 7 right now. But Week 5 at home vs. the Giants should be a get-right spot, and that will be the first of four home games in their next five going into their bye week, with a very winnable @ATL the only away game. SEA could easily be 7-2 going into their Week 10 bye. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 6 month(s) ago

I wanna get ahead of the curve on a couple of NFC West teams.

OVERRATED San Francisco 49ers

The SF defense is not as good as recent vintage. The Kyren Williams explosion was no fluke.

UNDERRATED Seattle Seahawks

Many assume that SEA's 3-0 record is just fattening up on cupcakes - and that's fair - but I'm guessing that assumption is wrong.

As a Jets fan, I'll NEVER predict a Geno Smith-led team to contend for the SB, but 10 or 11 wins and a surprise run to the NFC Championship are on the table for SEA.

gt;t;

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 6 month(s) ago
@SadisticNobility Gotta disagree on Jones. He sucks. He can't complete a pass 20+ yards. He was just doing more check-down compiling last night, only without his usual handful of TOs. He never truly threatens the secondary. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 6 month(s) ago - hide

I wanna get ahead of the curve on a couple of NFC West teams.

OVERRATED San Francisco 49ers

The SF defense is not as good as recent vintage. The Kyren Williams explosion was no fluke.

UNDERRATED Seattle Seahawks

Many assume that SEA's 3-0 record is just fattening up on cupcakes - and that's fair - but I'm guessing that assumption is wrong.

As a Jets fan, I'll NEVER predict a Geno Smith-led team to contend for the SB, but 10 or 11 wins and a surprise run to the NFC Championship are on the table for SEA.

gt;t;

	WFDevTeam • 139 Posts (30 ) • 1 years 6 month(s) ago wfdevteam
@Mr. Bitter I'll be looking out for Seattle then 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 6 month(s) ago

@Walt

You've gotta let the TEN dream die. It wouldn't matter if TEN had the '85 Bears defense; backing Will Levis will leave bettors wearing barrel-and-suspenders.

TEN's defense isn't great. It's just okay. Now Chidobe Awuzie is out and Jeffery Simmons is questionable. Tyler Huntley is likely to start for MIA and I guaranfu*kintee you he outperforms Levis on the way to a watching-paint-dry MIA win.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 6 month(s) ago
@Mr. Football Love is blind. The Cowboys are in trouble. The league-wide safety shell trend is making running the ball/stopping the run more important than we've seen in decades. DAL can do neither. Like, not at all. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 6 month(s) ago

I don't think it's fair to say that the Bucs were exposed vs. the Broncos. Coming off the big win vs. DET and with a big game vs. PHI ahead, Week 3 was a classic trap game. The Bucs were also rolling with a gutted defense.

Not saying the Bucs are SB contenders, but they're definitely capable of winning the NFC South. Mayfield is (somehow) the best QB in the division, the offense will improve as Goedeke gets healthy and Bucky Irving settles in at RB1, and the defense will be fine once Vea, Kancey, Winfield are healthy.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 6 month(s) ago
@biskit52250 He has the Vikings at #4. Can't hate them that much. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 6 month(s) ago

The Ravens aren't "bad". Yeah, they're experiencing some growing pains as the reconfigured O-line establishes continuity, but the Ravens under Harbaugh have earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to such things. LT and C are solid, Mekari has always been serviceable when called upon, and new Gs Vorhees and Faalele have upside.

The current BAL O-line situation isn't any worse than those in the rest of the AFC North.

CINs mediocre O-line regularly gets Burrow hurt,

PITs O-line is suspect, with Broderick Jones looking like a bust and Fautanu out for the season.

CLE's O-line is a mess. Jedrick Wills sucks, Conklin will never be the same, and now Wyatt Teller and underrated swing OT James Hudson are injured.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 6 month(s) ago
Think maybe Drake London just isn't that good. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 6 month(s) ago
@mike-gaughan Happy JK Dobbins owner here. I would make that move. I'm currently contemplating dropping Chuba Hubbard to pick up Gus Edwards from waivers as a premium handcuff. With Dobbins' injury history and Harbaugh's offensive philosophy, Edwards could bang out some week-winning numbers later on this season. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 6 month(s) ago
"The Bears don't have the best depth at CB" Huh? Jaylon Johnson is the best CB in the NFC. Tyrique Stevenson is emerging as a high-quality, ball-hawking CB2 and ideal complement to Johnson. Slot CB Kyler Gordon grades as one of the best in the league. CB4 Terell Smith would be CB2 for some teams. None are older than 25. 1 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 6 month(s) ago - hide

I get that the Browns have talent, but I think you're underrating what a massive albatross Deshaun Watson and his contract are for the organization.

Performance-wise, Watson has clearly checked out after getting paid, and with the new sexual assault accusations it seems just a matter of time before he's benched and/or released. That's demoralizing, season-killing stuff, and Joe Flacco is no longer around to give CLE a short-term boost.

Chubb and Conklin will probably never be the same, and Jedrick Wills hasn't been good since his rookie season. With the Njoku injury, points will be hard to come by and we could see a very frustrated Browns defense before long. The whole situation in CLE points more toward a spiral than improvement.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 6 month(s) ago

@chuckster

I just think the NFL is all about getting it right at QB and Walt will grow old waiting for CLE, CAR and TEN to turn the corner unless those teams make a change under center.

The QB situations in CLE and CAR are catastrophic when factoring in the investment prices. I mean, the Panthers passed on C.J. Stroud and basically traded the foundation of a playoff team to CHI to draft a QB that is simply too small and plays scared. Walt says the Panthers are bound to improve because they upgraded the O-line; so what? What good is an improved run-blocking unit when the opposing defense can just stack the box because they know the QB is atrocious?

Watson, Young nd Levis suck, and every member of their organizations top-to-bottom know that. There's a ripple effect. CLE, CAR and TEN are just spinning their wheels and should be auto-fades until those QBs are benched.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 6 month(s) ago

I get that the Browns have talent, but I think you're underrating what a massive albatross Deshaun Watson and his contract are for the organization.

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 6 month(s) ago - hide

I get that the Browns have talent, but I think you're underrating what a massive albatross Deshaun Watson and his contract are for the organization.

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 6 month(s) ago
@chuckster Plenty of people have rough upbringings AND rough adulthoods yet still manage to not be complete assholes. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 6 month(s) ago - hide

I get that the Browns have talent, but I think you're underrating what a massive albatross Deshaun Watson and his contract are for the organization.

	chuckster • 368 Posts (319 ) • 1 years 6 month(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter: Totally agree on your assessment of the Browns potential downward spiral. Watson clearly has/is? walking the path to personal/self destruction. It has happened to a lot of athletes across the sports spectrum and seems to be directly attributed to a rough/horrible upbringing. Some of these gifted athletes find a way to overcome, sadly, many can't/won't. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 6 month(s) ago
Ewers > Sanders 1 0

	Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364 ) • 1 years 7 month(s) ago
@SadisticNobility TEN's success hinges on whether Levis is the guy at QB. If he's not, TEN won't win many games. Judging by what we saw today, Levis has not improved from last season. I don't think his penchant for back-breaking turnovers is going to just go away. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 684 Posts (364

) •
1 years 7 month(s) ago

I don't think anyone expects the Saints to be good this season.

Raiders are overrated. Antonio Pierce is a complete unknown and his late-season interim Ws came against teams that had given up. His schemes/philosophies are outdated. He's an inexperienced, rah rah player's coach; the track record for such coaches is not good once the initial feel-good vibes fade.

Their defense is mediocre beyond Crosby and Wilkins. Robert Spillane is arguably their best back-7 starter. That's not good. Jimmy Lake was a very questionable DC hire.

The offensive line is mediocre beyond Kolton Miller, and O-line guru Carmen Bricillo is no longer around to extract lemonade from those lemons. (Very underrated loss.)

The running game - which Pierce hopes will be LV's bread and butter - looked completely ineffective in the preseason. The Raiders might have the least-talented RB room in the NFL.

The QB situation is right there with PIT for worst in the AFC, but at least the QBs that the Steelers will be yo-yoing in and out of the lineup have some talent and upside.