Welcome to Mr. Bitter's Profile Page

@Osmodiar 

Agree on Allar. Not a 1st round prospect.

@Osmodiar 

Not sure about that. NO is a directionless organization and the pressure of following in Archie's footsteps isn't necessarily a positive. 

@Mr. Football  

The Cowboys are a bit of a mess. Pickens isn't going to behave himself. He's a WR2 who thinks he's an alpha. He's a meltdown waiting to happen.

Another weak head coaching hire.

The Prescott contract is an albatross.

DAL has no running game and no run defense.

The secondary is a problem. 

Tough schedule. The Cowboys could easily be 2-7 going into their bye.

DAL might finish last place in the NFC East.

Aaaaand of course my Jets drafted the OT with the highest bust potential, IMO.

Any idea on what position the Rams are targeting at 2.46? I'm thinking CB.

Passing up Travis Hunter to draft Mason Graham top-5 is why the Browns are the Browns.

Nice call on CIN/Shemar Stewart.

@Walt

Vegas odds now have Jeanty over Graham as the favorite to go at #5. You may want to mention Jeanty as a possibility at that spot.

I'm currently banging out my contest mock and have prioritized pinpointing where the QB prospects are going to go and kinda working around that. Here's what I think I think so far:

Cam Ward/TEN - Mistake, but inevitable.

Shedeur Sanders/PIT - It's simple. Aaron Rodgers wants to start for a contender. PIT is the only realistic option left for him. Rodgers is literally waiting to see if PIT drafts Sanders or Dart, and if they do, he'll retire.

I don't care how bloated the OVER number on Sanders' 9.5 O/U gets or how much smoke there is that he'll tumble out of the 1st RD - if Penix and Nix went as high as they did in a much stronger draft, then Sanders is going in the 1st RD, with 1.21 his absolute floor.

Jaxson Dart/CLE - Whether it's a trade up from 2.33 or at 2.33, I think Dart will be CLE's target. Dart is this draft's QB analytics darling and no team emphasizes analytics like CLE. Dart is also going to be a bust; drafting QB busts is what the Browns do.

I'm getting the feeling that 1.06 could be a sneaky spot for Sanders. Geno Smith is approaching 35 and basically on a one-year deal. O'Connell is on the trading block. Brady has a history with the Sanders family. Sure, if Jeanty pops off at 1.05, the Raiders could pivot to a RT like Membou, Jalon Walker, maybe even Mykel Williams or Tet McMillan, but I think they would consider Sanders just as strongly. The Raiders have quietly been bringing in all the QBs for Top 30s and WOs, too.

The Rams might consider Dart, but it's impossible to say because they do their scouting in-season and meet with prospects virtually. I'm going to assume they ride with Stafford/Garoppolo one more year.

I think SEA will come out of Day Two with Will Howard or Tyler Shough.

If PIT doesn't get Sanders or Dart, then Rodgers signs with PIT and maybe the Steelers grab a Will Howard or Kyle McCord in the 3rd/4th RD.

Chris Ballard will ride with AR/Danny Dimes because he's a drunken idiot.

The Saints use 3.71 or 3.93 on Quinn Ewers.

@pinballer3 

I did this exercise to break out of the media regurgitation/groupthink rut that you mentioned. Every year around this time it's the same: All the legitimate information that can be gathered has been gathered, so all that's left for the media is rumor, speculation and flat-out disinformation that gets repeated so often that everyone just kinda accepts it, leading to the top 6 to 8 picks in every mock draft looking exactly the same. And every year, the actual draft looks nothing like the consensus and everybody gets like six to nine 1st RD picks right. I don't want to do that this year. "1. Ward 2. Hunter 3. Carter 4. Campbell 5. Graham 6. Jeanty 7. Membou 8. Walker" just isn't how it's going to go down. So I decided to tune out the media stuff until the eve of the draft and focus on going back to the tape, team needs and where the value pockets are for those needs. Because that's exactly what NFL decision-makers are doing right now.

@The Champ

I mean, if we are going to assume that the new JAX regime is going to just sweep out unproven recent 2nd-rounders drafted by the former regime, then why is nobody talking about JAX trading down and drafting Tyler Warren to replace Brenton Strange? It's not like Trevor Lawrence doesn't need all the help he can get.

@The Champ 

The 1.05 JAX/Graham chalk has always been kinda iffy to me. He's good, but not that good. When I watch the tape of a DT prospect projected to go top five, I expect to see a Suh/Quinnen Williams-type that is consistently pressing the iOL into the QBs lap or on the QB's ass. Graham is not that guy. He's a scrappy, assignment-sure technician that fits the run and creates piles at the LOS, but when you watch the tape, it's Kenneth Grant right next to him that is actually splitting double times and puncturing the backfield more times than not.

@The Champ 

Yeah, very little can be gleaned from the Combine, Pro Days, where every movement made and every word said has been mapped out by handlers and rehearsed ad nauseam. Teams have to get these QBs in their rooms, on the white board, throw concepts and verbiage at them, really get under the hood. It would be insane to invest in a QB without that baseline of information.

Agree with you on the 49ers. (My exercise really did set me straight in a few spots.) SF went from that Bosa/Buckner/Armstead/Jones wrecking crew to Bosa and practice squad guys. That's not gonna stand. Pick 1.11 simply has to be earmarked for D-line. Underrated factor: SF DL coach Kris Kocurek. Stewart, Williams and Nolen are upside prospects in need of refinement. Kocurek is arguably the best in the business.

Mason Graham is now 5.5 O/U -110 to the OVER. I'm convinced that CHI is moving up to 1.05 for Jeanty. When you look at how aggressively Poles knocked out the need at EDGE and revamped the O-line during free agency...the two high 2nd rounders...it all points toward a bold Day One move up the board.

@42yardline 

I just don't believe Ward is that much better than Sanders. Neither are transcendent talents, so their NFL success could easily hinge on what kind of situation they're drafted into. 

TEN is drafting Ward to start immediately...in an offense where Calvin Ridley is the only viable target and Dan freakin' Moore is considered an upgrade for the O-line. Beyond the excellent Sweat/Simmons DT duo, TEN's defense is swiss cheese. If Ward was a lift-all-boats-level QB prospect like Manning/Luck, that would be fine...but he's not. He's not even close. The Titans are setting Ward up to fail.

Now let's say Sanders slides and gets drafted by the Rams. In that system, with that supporting cast and the luxury of learning under McVay and behind Stafford for a stretch, I'd be willing to bet mucho cabbage that Sanders would have a more successful career than Ward.

As for why I think the Jets should go QB but TEN shouldn't - that's easy. It's because Travis Hunter isn't an alternative for the Jets. Hunter is going to be a truly generational superstar.

Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.

Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.

Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.

Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.

Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.

@42yardline 

For the Jets, my approach to the draft would be completely different than how Mougey and Glenn will approach it because they appear to be committed to Justin Fields at QB. Fields greatly limits what you can do on offense and isn't going to lead us to the playoffs. So the answer to your question is Shedeur Sanders.

@Mr. Football  

The Cowboys are trading up for Travis Hunter?

I love that WAS/Henderson pick. Daniels/Henderson together in the backfield would be terrifying.

Can't see Shemar Stewart slipping out of the 1st RD. The upside is just too immense. That's a Myles Garrett athletic profile. Stewart currently has very healthy Vegas odds to go in the 1st RD.

ATL-related question: The Falcons currently have Ruke Orhorhoro as the starting NT on their depth chart. Orhorhoro is a decent run-stopper that I've heard ATL is high on, but he's very slim for a 3-4 NT. He seems to be best suited for 3-4 DE, but I've heard nothing as far as ATL kicking the tires on pure NTs like Kenneth Grant and Tyliek Williams during the pre-draft process. It seems a clogger like Grant would free up ATL's bevy of undersized edge-rushers to get home to the QB and improve that 29th-ranked sacks-from-pressure rate. Do you think ATL is really satisfied with Orhorhoro at NT? They've only had potential 3-4 DEs (TJ Sanders, Omarr Norman-Lott) in for Top30 visits. Just seems odd.

@42yardline 

Honestly, "Travis Hunter no matter what" is what the Titans should be saying.

This mock is air tight. It really is hard to argue with Vegas. Even the CHI/Warren match - which I don't think will happen - could be accurate in terms of prospect/pick number because 1.10 is easily a spot where a team like IND might move up for Warren.

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

Not that Gutekunst wouldn't grab Stewart and his RAS in a New York second - I just think Stewart comes off the board much earlier. We're talking about an EDGE prospect with the same athletic profile as Myles Garrett. Some team is going to bite on that upside early.

I just can't see Dart and his pop-gun, scheme specific arm in the AFC North - especially in PIT, where it still looks like it might be moon ball city. Milroe - as reachy as it feels - seems the fit there.

I think something weird will happen with the Giants at 1.03. Just a gut feeling. There are character whispers with Abdul Carter to go along with the injury red flags. Your CAR trade up makes a ton of sense, but I could also see a risk-averse, conservative organization like NY take Mason Graham. He's one of the safest picks in the draft and the Giants desperately need a 3T to complement Lawrence. First "shocker" pick? (Everybody in the universe has Graham locked in at 1.05, so two picks higher wouldn't be that shocking, IMO.)

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

The Browns are desperate for a QB and are the sucker organization that will move up for Ward. CLE sends 1.02, 2.33, 3.67, 3.94 and CB Craig Newsome II to TEN for 1.02 and 2.35. TEN drafts Hunter at 1.02, then trades into the 1st RD for Dart (who DOES fit Callahan's scheme). After the draft, TEN acquires Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins as a bridge.

This mock is air tight. It really is hard to argue with Vegas. Even the CHI/Warren match - which I don't think will happen - could be accurate in terms of prospect/pick number because 1.10 is easily a spot where a team like IND might move up for Warren.

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

Not that Gutekunst wouldn't grab Stewart and his RAS in a New York second - I just think Stewart comes off the board much earlier. We're talking about an EDGE prospect with the same athletic profile as Myles Garrett. Some team is going to bite on that upside early.

I just can't see Dart and his pop-gun, scheme specific arm in the AFC North - especially in PIT, where it still looks like it might be moon ball city. Milroe - as reachy as it feels - seems the fit there.

I think something weird will happen with the Giants at 1.03. Just a gut feeling. There are character whispers with Abdul Carter to go along with the injury red flags. Your CAR trade up makes a ton of sense, but I could also see a risk-averse, conservative organization like NY take Mason Graham. He's one of the safest picks in the draft and the Giants desperately need a 3T to complement Lawrence. First "shocker" pick? (Everybody in the universe has Graham locked in at 1.05, so two picks higher wouldn't be that shocking, IMO.)

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

The Browns are desperate for a QB and are the sucker organization that will move up for Ward. CLE sends 1.02, 2.33, 3.67, 3.94 and CB Craig Newsome II to TEN for 1.02 and 2.35. TEN drafts Hunter at 1.02, then trades into the 1st RD for Dart (who DOES fit Callahan's scheme). After the draft, TEN acquires Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins as a bridge.

Jahdae Barron and Matthew Golden in the 2nd RD is very unlikely. Arguably the top prospects at their respective (premium) positions.

Mike Green and Donovan Ezeiruaku in the 3rd RD?

Are you guys hearing something about Mike Green that we haven't heard? That flag must be blood red, because his traits/production/metrics profile is 1st RD all day.

Ezeiruaku's only "size limitation" is that he's barely sub-6'3". Great athlete with a solid base and the arm length/wingspan of a 6'5" guy. Deep bag of pass-rush tricks. Super bendy and ultra productive. Intelligent with pristine character. (Team unanimously voted him team captain.) Premium position. Top of the 2nd RD is his floor.

Emery Jones Jr. in the 1st RD is a Mr. Fantastic reach. Sushi raw. RT only. I don't get it.

This mock is air tight. It really is hard to argue with Vegas. Even the CHI/Warren match - which I don't think will happen - could be accurate in terms of prospect/pick number because 1.10 is easily a spot where a team like IND might move up for Warren.

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

Not that Gutekunst wouldn't grab Stewart and his RAS in a New York second - I just think Stewart comes off the board much earlier. We're talking about an EDGE prospect with the same athletic profile as Myles Garrett. Some team is going to bite on that upside early.

I just can't see Dart and his pop-gun, scheme specific arm in the AFC North - especially in PIT, where it still looks like it might be moon ball city. Milroe - as reachy as it feels - seems the fit there.

I think something weird will happen with the Giants at 1.03. Just a gut feeling. There are character whispers with Abdul Carter to go along with the injury red flags. Your CAR trade up makes a ton of sense, but I could also see a risk-averse, conservative organization like NY take Mason Graham. He's one of the safest picks in the draft and the Giants desperately need a 3T to complement Lawrence. First "shocker" pick? (Everybody in the universe has Graham locked in at 1.05, so two picks higher wouldn't be that shocking, IMO.)

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

The Browns are desperate for a QB and are the sucker organization that will move up for Ward. CLE sends 1.02, 2.33, 3.67, 3.94 and CB Craig Newsome II to TEN for 1.02 and 2.35. TEN drafts Hunter at 1.02, then trades into the 1st RD for Dart (who DOES fit Callahan's scheme). After the draft, TEN acquires Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins as a bridge.

This mock is air tight. It really is hard to argue with Vegas. Even the CHI/Warren match - which I don't think will happen - could be accurate in terms of prospect/pick number because 1.10 is easily a spot where a team like IND might move up for Warren.

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

Not that Gutekunst wouldn't grab Stewart and his RAS in a New York second - I just think Stewart comes off the board much earlier. We're talking about an EDGE prospect with the same athletic profile as Myles Garrett. Some team is going to bite on that upside early.

I just can't see Dart and his pop-gun, scheme specific arm in the AFC North - especially in PIT, where it still looks like it might be moon ball city. Milroe - as reachy as it feels - seems the fit there.

I think something weird will happen with the Giants at 1.03. Just a gut feeling. There are character whispers with Abdul Carter to go along with the injury red flags. Your CAR trade up makes a ton of sense, but I could also see a risk-averse, conservative organization like NY take Mason Graham. He's one of the safest picks in the draft and the Giants desperately need a 3T to complement Lawrence. First "shocker" pick? (Everybody in the universe has Graham locked in at 1.05, so two picks higher wouldn't be that shocking, IMO.)

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

The Browns are desperate for a QB and are the sucker organization that will move up for Ward. CLE sends 1.02, 2.33, 3.67, 3.94 and CB Craig Newsome II to TEN for 1.02 and 2.35. TEN drafts Hunter at 1.02, then trades into the 1st RD for Dart (who DOES fit Callahan's scheme). After the draft, TEN acquires Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins as a bridge.

This mock is air tight. It really is hard to argue with Vegas. Even the CHI/Warren match - which I don't think will happen - could be accurate in terms of prospect/pick number because 1.10 is easily a spot where a team like IND might move up for Warren.

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

Not that Gutekunst wouldn't grab Stewart and his RAS in a New York second - I just think Stewart comes off the board much earlier. We're talking about an EDGE prospect with the same athletic profile as Myles Garrett. Some team is going to bite on that upside early.

I just can't see Dart and his pop-gun, scheme specific arm in the AFC North - especially in PIT, where it still looks like it might be moon ball city. Milroe - as reachy as it feels - seems the fit there.

I think something weird will happen with the Giants at 1.03. Just a gut feeling. There are character whispers with Abdul Carter to go along with the injury red flags. Your CAR trade up makes a ton of sense, but I could also see a risk-averse, conservative organization like NY take Mason Graham. He's one of the safest picks in the draft and the Giants desperately need a 3T to complement Lawrence. First "shocker" pick? (Everybody in the universe has Graham locked in at 1.05, so two picks higher wouldn't be that shocking, IMO.)

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

The Browns are desperate for a QB and are the sucker organization that will move up for Ward. CLE sends 1.02, 2.33, 3.67, 3.94 and CB Craig Newsome II to TEN for 1.02 and 2.35. TEN drafts Hunter at 1.02, then trades into the 1st RD for Dart (who DOES fit Callahan's scheme). After the draft, TEN acquires Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins as a bridge.

This mock is air tight. It really is hard to argue with Vegas. Even the CHI/Warren match - which I don't think will happen - could be accurate in terms of prospect/pick number because 1.10 is easily a spot where a team like IND might move up for Warren.

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

Not that Gutekunst wouldn't grab Stewart and his RAS in a New York second - I just think Stewart comes off the board much earlier. We're talking about an EDGE prospect with the same athletic profile as Myles Garrett. Some team is going to bite on that upside early.

I just can't see Dart and his pop-gun, scheme specific arm in the AFC North - especially in PIT, where it still looks like it might be moon ball city. Milroe - as reachy as it feels - seems the fit there.

I think something weird will happen with the Giants at 1.03. Just a gut feeling. There are character whispers with Abdul Carter to go along with the injury red flags. Your CAR trade up makes a ton of sense, but I could also see a risk-averse, conservative organization like NY take Mason Graham. He's one of the safest picks in the draft and the Giants desperately need a 3T to complement Lawrence. First "shocker" pick? (Everybody in the universe has Graham locked in at 1.05, so two picks higher wouldn't be that shocking, IMO.)

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

The Browns are desperate for a QB and are the sucker organization that will move up for Ward. CLE sends 1.02, 2.33, 3.67, 3.94 and CB Craig Newsome II to TEN for 1.02 and 2.35. TEN drafts Hunter at 1.02, then trades into the 1st RD for Dart (who DOES fit Callahan's scheme). After the draft, TEN acquires Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins as a bridge.

Jahdae Barron and Matthew Golden in the 2nd RD is very unlikely. Arguably the top prospects at their respective (premium) positions.

Mike Green and Donovan Ezeiruaku in the 3rd RD?

Are you guys hearing something about Mike Green that we haven't heard? That flag must be blood red, because his traits/production/metrics profile is 1st RD all day.

Ezeiruaku's only "size limitation" is that he's barely sub-6'3". Great athlete with a solid base and the arm length/wingspan of a 6'5" guy. Deep bag of pass-rush tricks. Super bendy and ultra productive. Intelligent with pristine character. (Team unanimously voted him team captain.) Premium position. Top of the 2nd RD is his floor.

Emery Jones Jr. in the 1st RD is a Mr. Fantastic reach. Sushi raw. RT only. I don't get it.

Great mock. The Membou fall is ballsy.

I like the DET/Scourton match. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Scourton sneaks into the late 1st.

If the Jets pick Josh Simmons at 1.07 that may be the last straw for me as a Jets fan. Aaron Glenn recently talked about "establishing culture" in this draft...Simmons is not a "culture" pick.

@42yardline 

Hip injury/short arms

Why have the Titans done nothing to address WR or CB this offseason? Could it be because this draft's WR1 and CB1 are the same guy?

I've escaped the matrix, gentlemen. Tennessee is drafting Travis Hunter.

@NoHeroes94 

I see some expert mocks that have the Niners taking a CB at 1.11. Baffling. They plainly have no idea how SF operates. A deep, talented D-line constantly fortified with premium investments has been the foundation of SF's success. There's no way on earth they don't address the D-line early and often in this draft. Remove Bosa, and that's a practice squad group.

I'm very intrigued by the idea of what Shemar Stewart could become under the tutelage of Kris Kocurek, but the 2nd RD is this draft's sweet spot for quality 4-3 base ends. Nobody like Kenneth Grant will be found in the 2nd RD.

@The Champ 

Yeah, the books have the total WRs selected in the 1st RD number at 2.5. Burden's going in the top half of the 2nd RD. In his defense, I think he was misused at Mizzu. Talent-wise, he's a tier above the Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel, Jack Bech clump, IMO.

Current Vegas odds suggest a less than 4% chance that TEN drafts anyone other than Cam Ward at 1.01. I'm still going to stick with Travis Hunter right down to the wire. I honestly believe Hunter could be their guy. He's a truly special prospect. Ward is a highly-flawed, 2nd RD grade QB.

Not even a month ago, many were predicting a TEN/NYG trade. Others had TEN taking Abdul Carter or Hunter. What has changed? Is Cam Ward suddenly a lock at #1 just because of a meaningless Pro Day or a few patchwork O-line signings that TEN needed to make regardless of who's at QB in '25? Ward is only a near-lock because of what everyone is hearing. How do we know that what we're hearing isn't misdirection?

Ward just isn't a 1.01-level prospect. Ward is in the same tier as Shedeur Sanders, who everyone has tumbling down the draft board. None of it adds up.

I think TEN has been playing a game of chicken with the other QB-desperate top-10 teams from the get-go. "We're going to take Ward if you don't trade us the farm and come up and get him". The Raiders and Jets tapped out early. Schoen and Daboll went to Ward's pro day, then the Giants signed Russell Wilson the very next morning. The only potential dupes left are the Browns, and I don't think they'll bite either. It's going to be hilarious when the Titans take Hunter then the Browns choose Sanders over Ward.

Yeah, Walker definitely flashes the edge juice to be Reddick-type. He really is a lump of clay. Just depends on what the coaches want to do with him.

I wonder if the Raiders could take Walker at 1.06. Their LB depth chart is pretty grim and they don't have a whole lot of edge juice beyond Crosby. Could be a Bruce Irvin-type SLB for Carroll.

CAR is as good a fit as any for Walker. Evero runs a lot of blitz packages out of that 3-4 - Walker would be excellent in that capacity.

Good point about Taylor's expiring contract. Johnson is holding a private workout for NFL scouts on April 14. Maybe his draft stock rebounds if all goes well.

Jalon Walker isn't very good in coverage. Not saying he couldn't be - he has the athleticism and just turned 21. At off-ball LB, his game is mostly hellified blitzing and scooting and lassoing guys. He's moldable, but I don't think he steps into an NFL starting lineup as an asset in coverage.

I don't know how much I trust Adam Schefter anymore. He used to be the man, but he seems to be putting a lot of mixed messages out there lately.

I love Jahdae Barron, but a pure boundary CB1 like Will Johnson might be a better fit for the Saints. They're already invested in Alonte Taylor, who is best suited as a slot that can bounce around the secondary.

Golden to DET is interesting. Jamo trade?

About time we see a mock that has the marbles to match NE/Jeanty.

@The Champ 

I have the Rams moving up for Barron, too. He's exactly the kinda dog they look for. Great minds lol.

With you on Saints/Will Johnson. Feels like Johnson's floor.

Not sure about Dolphins/Banks. Not arguing the value, but Miami seems to be high on '24 2nd RD LT Patrick Paul.

Arizona signed NT Dalvin Tomlinson to 2 yrs/$29M, with $16M guaranteed. Could make Kenneth Grant less likely.

I think the Raiders/Jeanty hype is legit. Carroll wants a smashmouth team and Jeanty is arguably the best prospect in the draft. It makes sense.

@The Champ 

Yeah, Pickens was an obvious trade candidate even before the Metcalf acquisition made him redundant. No way the Steelers are going to give Pickens WR1 money next year.

A Day 2 pick for Pickens sounds right - a 2nd-rounder even. He just turned 24. Unfortunately, I could see my Jets in on that. The Cowboys, Patriots, Cardinals and Panthers could also be interested.

Keenan Allen would be a good fit in PIT. Too bad Rodgers will demand Allen Lazard.

Speaking of trades - we haven't seen any draft picks traded yet. There's usually trade action by now. It's eerily quiet.

Thought: If Ward and Sanders go 1.01 and 1.02, I wonder if the Giants could draft Abdul Carter at 1.03 then put Thibodeaux on the trade block. There's a lot of buzz that the Giants are hesitant to make a long-term commitment to him.

Love this mock and love the trades. I'm currently working on my mock and have the same exact NE/LV trade. It just makes so much sense; sure, LV has the worst RB room in the NFL and Jeanty would be a great fit, but they also desperately need a CB1 and a big-play receiver to complement Bowers and Meyers. Hunter could provide both. I love Jeanty, but he loses that "value" debate every time.

From NE's side, they have Christian Gonzalez, signed Carlton Davis to a nice bag and even have big-play-CB-that-moonlights-as-a-WR Marcus Jones, so I'm not sure where Hunter fits for the Pats unless they value him at 1.04 purely as a WR. Doubtful.

A potential monkey wrench in the NE/LV trade scenario is NE signing Tyron Smith. The Pats still have mucho cap space and haven't been shy about handing out bags to older/injury-prone vets (Davis, Harold Landry, Morgan Moses) to spackle need positions during free agency.

Love the WAS/Ezeiruaka pick. Dan Quinn still doesn't have his all-important LEO, and 1.29 is right about where one of this draft's custom-built LEOs (Ezeiruaka/Mike Green/James Pearce) should still be available. WAS should be able to stick 'n' pick and get excellent value.

Gotta push back on SF/Walker. I don't see how this isn't a trench-heavy draft for the 49ers. The D-line is just Bosa and tumbleweeds, while the O-line needs a LG now and likely two OTs by 2026. SF is excellent at finding LB value on Day 2/3, and their last 1st RD LB (R. Foster) burnt them to a crisp. In your scenario, I think it would be Mykel Williams or Kelvin Banks for SF. Banks in particular would fit SF's MO of drafting with an eye a year or two into the future (Pearsall in preparation for Deebo's exit, etc.). The 'Niners could plop Banks in at LG this season then kick him out to LT as soon as Trent Williams goes completely off the cliff. That's serious value at 1.11.

Nitpick: Not sure about PIT/O. Hampton. They re-signed Warren and picked up Gainwell, so a 1st-rounder on a bruising complement in a RBBC seems rich. I gotta think they learned their lesson with Najee Harris. In your scenario, I have to think PIT would be all over Kenneth Grant. The way their run-defense was pummeled last season can't be sitting well in PIT. They want to move Keeanu Benton off the nose, so Grant's presence would essentially upgrade two positions.

(BTW, I still think Russ could re-sign with PIT. Heavy-package, 2-TE sets with a couple of moon ball-magnet WRs on the boundaries...the offensive seems designed for Russ, not Rodgers. Rodgers can't move at all anymore and was hesitant to push the ball downfield last season.)

Last thing: I think CLE could easily Shedeur Sanders. I'm not a huge fan of Sanders as a top-5 value, but I'm not sure why I'm seeing so many mocks that have Carter or Hunter going to CLE, then turning right around and giving Sanders to the Giants as a "no-brainer". If Sanders is a no-brainer for the Giants, why wouldn't he be a no-brainer for the Browns? CLE's QB depth chart is just Kenny Pickett, and their cap situation probably makes a rookie the only affordable QB option.

Golden to DET is interesting. Jamo trade?

About time we see a mock that has the marbles to match NE/Jeanty.

@laughwithdan 

Jets fan here and I 100% agree - and it's not just because I like Warren. We gotta score points. Whether it's TE or WR, we desperately need another high-level receiving target other than Garrett. A snot-bubble run-blocking RT like Aireontae Ersery should be there at 2.42.

I'm not sure about IND/Booker. Ballard is a RAS-centric drafter, and the Colts let Kelly and Fries walk with the plan to slide Bortolini and Goncalves in at C and RG. I think if the Colts address RG in the 1st RD, it's more likely to be a prospect with the versatility to kick out to RT as a hedge against whatever is going on with Braden Smith. Josh Simmons might make more sense.

For what it's worth, both Daniel Jeremiah and Mel Kiper have Booker falling out of the 1st RD of their latest mocks. Say what you will about them, but they're in-the-loop guys. Their March/April mocks are generally indicative of prospects' ultimate draft range.

@The Champ 

Jihaad Campbell could definitely pop off before Jalon Walker.

Tet McMillan's Pro Day 4.48 forty may have sealed the deal. Your CAR/McMillan match makes a lot of sense, and he might go even higher.

Loveland's AC joint shoulder injury is an issue. His surgeon sent a "it'll be fine" letter to all 32 teams, but Loveland won't be able to workout pre-draft. Athletic testing is crucial for TE prospects. Without that data, some teams may bump him down their boards. Loveland could slide a bit.

I'm seeing Kelvin Banks Jr. at +600 to come off the board as OL1, and I'm intrigued. Banks has become a somewhat forgotten man amongst the OL crop and I'm not really sure why. He's arguably the cleanest LT projection in the group.

What are the odds on DEN/Jeanty? Payton and company moving up for Jeanty isn't unrealistic.

I can't see Tyler Booker getting past the Ravens. Not arguing Zabel's value in that range, but he seems better suited for a zone scheme (SEA?) than BAL's power/gap. Booker is custom-built for the BAL scheme. Plop him in at LG and watch him be a perennial Pro Bowler.

Really hoping we get more clarity on Mike Green's history at UVa. Top-10 candidate if the character concerns are eased.

Still don't like Tet in the top-15. Have a feeling we see Golden/Tet/Egbuka pop off in the 16 to 26 range. All nice prospects, but all three seem more deluxe WR2s than WR1s, IMO.

I think we'll see more WR trade action that could open/fill spots on teams' WR depth charts. George Pickens feels redundant now that PIT has signed and payed Metcalf. I can't see PIT giving a bag to Pickens when - like Metcalf - he's more a lid-lifting, deluxe WR2 than true WR1. Should PIT trade Pickens, Golden becomes an option as an economical, high-quality complement to Metcalf.

I'm pretty sure Tyreek Hill will be traded, too. Having both Hill and Waddle under contract isn't financially sustainable for MIA, and they desperately need to reinvent their offensive identity. (Charmin soft.) The NW-I signing could be a precursor to a Hill trade. I could see the Raiders trading for Tyreek. They still have a lot of cap space and need that speed element at WR.

I could see SEA target Tet. His skill set would perfectly complement JS-N. Assuming SEA signs a FA like Scherff/Zeitler/Becton, I think they'll try to come out of Day One with Tet, Warren or Loveland.

Egbuka screams "Rams" to me. He totally jives with their Draft Day MO - slightly older/productive/mature/team leader ready to hit the ground running in the NFL. Just not sure if Egbuka makes it to 1.26.

I can't see Tyler Booker getting past the Ravens. Not arguing Zabel's value in that range, but he seems better suited for a zone scheme (SEA?) than BAL's power/gap. Booker is custom-built for the BAL scheme. Plop him in at LG and watch him be a perennial Pro Bowler.

Really hoping we get more clarity on Mike Green's history at UVa. Top-10 candidate if the character concerns are eased.

Still don't like Tet in the top-15. Have a feeling we see Golden/Tet/Egbuka pop off in the 16 to 26 range. All nice prospects, but all three seem more deluxe WR2s than WR1s, IMO.

I think we'll see more WR trade action that could open/fill spots on teams' WR depth charts. George Pickens feels redundant now that PIT has signed and payed Metcalf. I can't see PIT giving a bag to Pickens when - like Metcalf - he's more a lid-lifting, deluxe WR2 than true WR1. Should PIT trade Pickens, Golden becomes an option as an economical, high-quality complement to Metcalf.

I'm pretty sure Tyreek Hill will be traded, too. Having both Hill and Waddle under contract isn't financially sustainable for MIA, and they desperately need to reinvent their offensive identity. (Charmin soft.) The NW-I signing could be a precursor to a Hill trade. I could see the Raiders trading for Tyreek. They still have a lot of cap space and need that speed element at WR.

I could see SEA target Tet. His skill set would perfectly complement JS-N. Assuming SEA signs a FA like Scherff/Zeitler/Becton, I think they'll try to come out of Day One with Tet, Warren or Loveland.

Egbuka screams "Rams" to me. He totally jives with their Draft Day MO - slightly older/productive/mature/team leader ready to hit the ground running in the NFL. Just not sure if Egbuka makes it to 1.26.

I can't see Tyler Booker getting past the Ravens. Not arguing Zabel's value in that range, but he seems better suited for a zone scheme (SEA?) than BAL's power/gap. Booker is custom-built for the BAL scheme. Plop him in at LG and watch him be a perennial Pro Bowler.

Really hoping we get more clarity on Mike Green's history at UVa. Top-10 candidate if the character concerns are eased.

Still don't like Tet in the top-15. Have a feeling we see Golden/Tet/Egbuka pop off in the 16 to 26 range. All nice prospects, but all three seem more deluxe WR2s than WR1s, IMO.

I think we'll see more WR trade action that could open/fill spots on teams' WR depth charts. George Pickens feels redundant now that PIT has signed and payed Metcalf. I can't see PIT giving a bag to Pickens when - like Metcalf - he's more a lid-lifting, deluxe WR2 than true WR1. Should PIT trade Pickens, Golden becomes an option as an economical, high-quality complement to Metcalf.

I'm pretty sure Tyreek Hill will be traded, too. Having both Hill and Waddle under contract isn't financially sustainable for MIA, and they desperately need to reinvent their offensive identity. (Charmin soft.) The NW-I signing could be a precursor to a Hill trade. I could see the Raiders trading for Tyreek. They still have a lot of cap space and need that speed element at WR.

I could see SEA target Tet. His skill set would perfectly complement JS-N. Assuming SEA signs a FA like Scherff/Zeitler/Becton, I think they'll try to come out of Day One with Tet, Warren or Loveland.

Egbuka screams "Rams" to me. He totally jives with their Draft Day MO - slightly older/productive/mature/team leader ready to hit the ground running in the NFL. Just not sure if Egbuka makes it to 1.26.

Yeah, the PIT/D.K. signing immediately had me thinking Russ could be back in PIT. Metcalf/Pickens on the boundary...that's moon ball city. PIT could trade Pickens, but still.

Could also see the Jets signing Fields. Maybe draft Membou at 1.07, plop him in at RT and lean into a poor man's Ravens attack featuring Fields/Breece Hall/Braelon Allen. Probably be good enough for about 6 wins - enough to keep us out of range for a true franchise QB in next year's draft. Very Jets.

Agree on SEA. They're recalibrating, not tanking. I think the Geno/D.K. moves were forward-thinking, assuming Darnold is on the way. If there was no plan, I don't think Jarran Reed and Ernest Jones IV would have re-signed as quickly as they did. I'm wondering if SEA will target Warren, Loveland or McMillan in the 1st RD now. (Assuming they address the O-line in FA.)

I really think everyone is overthinking it with TEN and the Titans will just draft Ward. They flat-out don't have a QB and we've heard ZERO about them being in on any of the FA/trade QB options beyond pure speculation. And if Sanders is a better fit in Callahan's attack than Ward, then Sanders is a good fit in Stefanski's attack, so I doubt TEN would screw around with a trade and potentially miss out on both QBs at 1.03.

We just fundamentally disagree on Sanders' draft value. Been deep-diving into his film...he's just not a top-5 value. His completion % is propped up by mucho bubble screens. His deep pass % is just 18%, and Ward has a better adjusted overall completion %.

Sanders' arm strength is marginal. His deep balls are ducks that the receivers have to gear down for. Sanders also absolutely freezes at the first sign of disguised coverage or when forced to move off his first read. Then the sacks pile up. The BYU and Nebraska film is terrifying, and it's not like those are SEC defenses or something.

Also think the character concerns are legit. Josh Rosen vibes, but even more petulant and comes with the reality show circus that I can't see conservative NFL organizations like the Giants being too keen on.

We'll have more clarity in a few hours here. Now watch Darnold sign with the Giants lol. Enjoy the feeding frenzy!

Yeah, the PIT/D.K. signing immediately had me thinking Russ could be back in PIT. Metcalf/Pickens on the boundary...that's moon ball city. PIT could trade Pickens, but still.

Could also see the Jets signing Fields. Maybe draft Membou at 1.07, plop him in at RT and lean into a poor man's Ravens attack featuring Fields/Breece Hall/Braelon Allen. Probably be good enough for about 6 wins - enough to keep us out of range for a true franchise QB in next year's draft. Very Jets.

Agree on SEA. They're recalibrating, not tanking. I think the Geno/D.K. moves were forward-thinking, assuming Darnold is on the way. If there was no plan, I don't think Jarran Reed and Ernest Jones IV would have re-signed as quickly as they did. I'm wondering if SEA will target Warren, Loveland or McMillan in the 1st RD now. (Assuming they address the O-line in FA.)

I really think everyone is overthinking it with TEN and the Titans will just draft Ward. They flat-out don't have a QB and we've heard ZERO about them being in on any of the FA/trade QB options beyond pure speculation. And if Sanders is a better fit in Callahan's attack than Ward, then Sanders is a good fit in Stefanski's attack, so I doubt TEN would screw around with a trade and potentially miss out on both QBs at 1.03.

We just fundamentally disagree on Sanders' draft value. Been deep-diving into his film...he's just not a top-5 value. His completion % is propped up by mucho bubble screens. His deep pass % is just 18%, and Ward has a better adjusted overall completion %.

Sanders' arm strength is marginal. His deep balls are ducks that the receivers have to gear down for. Sanders also absolutely freezes at the first sign of disguised coverage or when forced to move off his first read. Then the sacks pile up. The BYU and Nebraska film is terrifying, and it's not like those are SEC defenses or something.

Also think the character concerns are legit. Josh Rosen vibes, but even more petulant and comes with the reality show circus that I can't see conservative NFL organizations like the Giants being too keen on.

We'll have more clarity in a few hours here. Now watch Darnold sign with the Giants lol. Enjoy the feeding frenzy!

Yeah, the PIT/D.K. signing immediately had me thinking Russ could be back in PIT. Metcalf/Pickens on the boundary...that's moon ball city. PIT could trade Pickens, but still.

Could also see the Jets signing Fields. Maybe draft Membou at 1.07, plop him in at RT and lean into a poor man's Ravens attack featuring Fields/Breece Hall/Braelon Allen. Probably be good enough for about 6 wins - enough to keep us out of range for a true franchise QB in next year's draft. Very Jets.

Agree on SEA. They're recalibrating, not tanking. I think the Geno/D.K. moves were forward-thinking, assuming Darnold is on the way. If there was no plan, I don't think Jarran Reed and Ernest Jones IV would have re-signed as quickly as they did. I'm wondering if SEA will target Warren, Loveland or McMillan in the 1st RD now. (Assuming they address the O-line in FA.)

I really think everyone is overthinking it with TEN and the Titans will just draft Ward. They flat-out don't have a QB and we've heard ZERO about them being in on any of the FA/trade QB options beyond pure speculation. And if Sanders is a better fit in Callahan's attack than Ward, then Sanders is a good fit in Stefanski's attack, so I doubt TEN would screw around with a trade and potentially miss out on both QBs at 1.03.

We just fundamentally disagree on Sanders' draft value. Been deep-diving into his film...he's just not a top-5 value. His completion % is propped up by mucho bubble screens. His deep pass % is just 18%, and Ward has a better adjusted overall completion %.

Sanders' arm strength is marginal. His deep balls are ducks that the receivers have to gear down for. Sanders also absolutely freezes at the first sign of disguised coverage or when forced to move off his first read. Then the sacks pile up. The BYU and Nebraska film is terrifying, and it's not like those are SEC defenses or something.

Also think the character concerns are legit. Josh Rosen vibes, but even more petulant and comes with the reality show circus that I can't see conservative NFL organizations like the Giants being too keen on.

We'll have more clarity in a few hours here. Now watch Darnold sign with the Giants lol. Enjoy the feeding frenzy!

Yeah, the PIT/D.K. signing immediately had me thinking Russ could be back in PIT. Metcalf/Pickens on the boundary...that's moon ball city. PIT could trade Pickens, but still.

Could also see the Jets signing Fields. Maybe draft Membou at 1.07, plop him in at RT and lean into a poor man's Ravens attack featuring Fields/Breece Hall/Braelon Allen. Probably be good enough for about 6 wins - enough to keep us out of range for a true franchise QB in next year's draft. Very Jets.

Agree on SEA. They're recalibrating, not tanking. I think the Geno/D.K. moves were forward-thinking, assuming Darnold is on the way. If there was no plan, I don't think Jarran Reed and Ernest Jones IV would have re-signed as quickly as they did. I'm wondering if SEA will target Warren, Loveland or McMillan in the 1st RD now. (Assuming they address the O-line in FA.)

I really think everyone is overthinking it with TEN and the Titans will just draft Ward. They flat-out don't have a QB and we've heard ZERO about them being in on any of the FA/trade QB options beyond pure speculation. And if Sanders is a better fit in Callahan's attack than Ward, then Sanders is a good fit in Stefanski's attack, so I doubt TEN would screw around with a trade and potentially miss out on both QBs at 1.03.

We just fundamentally disagree on Sanders' draft value. Been deep-diving into his film...he's just not a top-5 value. His completion % is propped up by mucho bubble screens. His deep pass % is just 18%, and Ward has a better adjusted overall completion %.

Sanders' arm strength is marginal. His deep balls are ducks that the receivers have to gear down for. Sanders also absolutely freezes at the first sign of disguised coverage or when forced to move off his first read. Then the sacks pile up. The BYU and Nebraska film is terrifying, and it's not like those are SEC defenses or something.

Also think the character concerns are legit. Josh Rosen vibes, but even more petulant and comes with the reality show circus that I can't see conservative NFL organizations like the Giants being too keen on.

We'll have more clarity in a few hours here. Now watch Darnold sign with the Giants lol. Enjoy the feeding frenzy!

I don't think the Seahawks will trade D.K. Metcalf, but if they do, I'm all over that if I'm the Jaguars. JAX should trade pick 2.36 to SEA for Metcalf, then draft Ashton Jeanty at 1.05. Along with Brian Thomas Jr., that's instant explosive offense.

Remaining QB carousel predictions:

Sam Darnold - SEA, Justin Fields - PIT, Russell Wilson - NYG

TEN drafts Cam Ward for themselves.

My Jets go into the draft with bridge/mentor Tyrod Taylor at the top of the QB depth chart. Because they're the Jets, they draft Sanders at 1.07. If they pass on Sanders at 1.07, then...

After taking Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter at 1.02, CLE trades up into the mid/late-1st for a sliding Shedeur Sanders (if the Jets don't take him at 1.07). If the Jets do select Sanders, then the Browns take Jaxson Dart at 2.33 or Quinn Ewers in the 3rd round. The team that doesn't draft Sanders acquires Kirk Cousins post-draft. bada-bing, bada-boom.

Pre-FA Top 15

1. TEN - Cam Ward QB Miami

I'm not buying the TEN/NYG trade talk. It makes no sense for TEN. The Titans don't have a QB and won't find a better option than Ward through trade or free agency, so why wouldn't they just draft him for themselves?

Also: TEN has recently spent a lot of resources on the CB position. With Harold Landry freshly cut and Arden Key another cap casualty waiting to happen, EDGE is a screaming need for TEN, meaning they could prefer Carter over Hunter at 1.03. Basically, Ward and Carter are the prospects that make the most sense for TEN, and dropping down to 1.03 could easily mean missing out on both.

2. CLE - Abdul Carter EDGE Penn State

BPA that would perfectly complement Myles Garrett. I'll be keeping my eye on Carter's medicals.

3. NYG - Travis Hunter CB/WR Colorado

The Giants aren't just bad - they're boring. They need a CB1 AND an injection of star power/big-play excitement. (The Giants had a pathetic 5 total INTs in 2024.) This feels like Hunter's floor.

4. NE - Will Campbell OT LSU

The Pats have ample cap space to address their league-worst OT depth chart, but free agency options like Cam Robinson, Dan Moore Jr. and the ghost of Tyron Smith are very uninspiring.

I know, I know...Will Campbell's alligator arms/zero percentile wingspan would seemingly eliminate him from the discussion at 1.04 for NE. I just have a hunch the Pats may still like him.

We already knew Campbell's length was an issue going into the Combine. (Just like we already knew that Nick Emmanwori was an athletic freak before the Combine.) Campbell's slide (and Emmanwori's rise into the 7-13 range) in post-Combine mock drafts feels like we might be falling into the trap of counting twice. NFL evaluators will go back to the film. 

Campbell's length is no doubt concerning, but his advanced technique mostly keeps EDGEs out of his chest, and when he does give ground, he has the (Combine-verified) elite-level athleticism to easily recover. 

Let's have some perspective: There's something to be said for being a consensus All-American 3-year SEC starter at LT - regularly facing lengthy, NFL EDGE prospects - and only giving up 2 sacks and 5 QB hits. Campbell has a literal whisker less length than Jake Matthews, who has carved out a rock-solid decade-long NFL career on the blindside. I think the film might convince Vrabel and company that Campbell could do the same.

5. JAX - Ashton Jeanty RB Boise State

It's rare that a team drafting in the top-5 has promising youngsters at every premium position (QB/WR1/OT/EDGE/CB1). The Jags are in position to go pure BPA here. That's Jeanty, who is pound-for-pound the best and cleanest prospect in this draft. 

Priority One for the new JAX braintrust is to ensure a proper return on the Trevor Lawrence investment. I highly doubt that the presence of Travis Etienne - a trade candidate that was already being phased out late last season - and Tank Bigsby - a 3rd-round grinder drafted by a failed regime - will dissuade them from selecting a Faulk/Tomlinson/Barkley-level upgrade that would instantly give the offense identity and serve as Lawrence's best friend.

6. LV - Jahdae Barron CB Texas

The current Raiders DB depth chart is nothing but tumbleweeds. Free agency could obviously change that, but for now, Barron - a versatile, absolute DOG that I think could make a Devon Witherspoon-type rise up draft boards - makes sense here.

7. NYJ - Shedeur Sanders QB Colorado

There's chatter that the Jets could be zeroing in on Justin Fields, which conflicts with earlier reports that they were good with going into next season with Tyrod Taylor as a bridge to a rookie QB. I'm guessing - with Geno Smith now in Vegas and Sam Darnold looking like he's on his way to Seattle - that PIT will bring back Fields. (They almost have to.) Should that domino fall, the Taylor/rookie QB scenario becomes highly likely for the Jets.

I don't buy the Sanders hype for a scroll of reasons and think the growing buzz of a slide into the late-1st/early-2nd has legs, but it only takes one (bad) organization to squint hard enough to see Sanders as a potential franchise QB. I have a sinking feeling it'll be my Jets.

New Jets OC Tanner Engstrand comes over from DET, where a juggernaut offense was built around "point guard" QB Jared Goff, so Sanders' skill set would be a good fit in theory.

8. CAR - Mike Green EDGE Marshall

Carolina generated a league-worst 25.5% pressure rate last season. D.J. Wonnum is in the last year of his deal and Jadeveon Clowney is a potential cap casualty.

I get young Khalil Mack vibes from Mike Green. Easy EDGE2 for me and a top-10 value, but I will adjust accordingly depending on what I hear about Green's alleged character concerns.

9. NO - Will Johnson CB Michigan

I was dumb enough to think that the Saints might finally commit to a proper rebuild this offseason, but the restructuring of Derek Carr's contract and Mickey Loomis' comments about being active in free agency likely means another year of fiscal can-kicking, a mediocre record and bringing back Taysom Hill on a reworked contract so that he can continue tormenting me in DFS contests. NFL purgatory.

Whether it's jumping on a prospect perceived to be "falling" (Kool-Aid McKinstry, Bryan Bresee...even going back to Andrus Peat) or overdrafting an "upside" prospect (Trevor Penning, Payton Turner, Cesar Ruiz, Marcus Davenport), Loomis seems forever on the lookout for the potential steal. Getting Will Johnson with any pick after 1.06 could easily be a steal, IMO.

The Saints would probably like to re-sign both Chase Young and Paulson Adebo, but will likely only be able to afford one. I'm guessing that Adebo walks, so there could be a need at boundary corner come Draft Day. No workouts has Johnson stumbling toward the finish line of the predraft process, but the tape shows a plug-n-play CB with Pro Bowl upside when healthy.

10. CHI - Jalon Walker LB Georgia

I anticipate Ryan Poles will continue aggressively checking off "immediate need" boxes during free agency. Expect the Bears to be in on Cs Drew Dalman and Ryan Kelly, and Trey Hendrickson or Chase Young to fill the EDGE void opposite Montez Sweat. (Jadeveon Clowney at the very least.) Poles clearly wants to be in position to let the draft come to him on Day One.

I think that Jalon Walker could go as high as 1.06 and doesn't get out of the top-16, but his size/skill set makes finding the best schematic match tricky. The Nolan Smith comps are a little off, IMO. Walker is cut more from the Zack Baun mold; a do-everything off-ball LB. It just so happens that new CHI DC Dennis Allen's Fangio-related scheme features a "Zack Baun" LB role, making Walker a seamless fit.

I know that a glance at the CHI depth chart would make you think that the Bears are set at LB with Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards, but I don't think Edmunds' price/performance jive, and Edwards (the better player) is nearly 30 and in the final year of his deal. Walker better fits the new scheme and would proactively address what could easily be a need in 2026.

11. SF - Armand Membou OT/G Missouri

12. DAL - Shemar Stewart DE Texas A&M

13. MIA - Kenneth Grant DT Michigan

14. IND - Colston Loveland TE Michigan

15. (TRADE) DEN - Tyler Warren TE Penn State