Welcome to Mr. Bitter's Profile Page

@Karensman 

Thanks. The Rams and Ravens have been good to me recently. (Although this is my stop on the Rams.)

Full disclosure: You'll almost never see me delve into prop bets, O/Us, teasers and such, and that's by design.

The job I've worked at for close to a decade now has been doing a weekly NFL SU picks pool since I've been there. I basically won the pool every week for the first few years of my employment, and this was noticed by the owner - a wealthy, old-school ponies guy that was only a casual football fan but always has an eye open for action. He pulled me aside and proposed a money man/idea man arrangement where all I had to do was give him my weekly NFL picks ATS weighted by confidence, let him do his thing, and get my cut. No teasing, no props action, just straight down the list ATS. Anything else has to be on my dime. He's okay with eating some loss as long as it's a profitable venture overall. However, he keeps track of my team-by-team record and alerts me when a pattern suggests I'm not reading a team correctly. Forces me to constantly reevaluate teams, and has taught me that formulas like Walt's Group A/Group B stuff are nearly useless, as it's almost never about where a team is from - it's where a team is at. Especially this time of year.

I don't think Jerks of the Week, the TV Commentators shtick, etc, will be going anywhere any time soon. Hate to play amateur psychologist, but Walt is obviously a guy who is very resistant to change. Not a big deal because we're all like that to some degree, but his stubbornness sometimes gets him in trouble when handicapping. His current "Ravens are overrated" ride is a perfect example. He still talks about BAL as if they're the same team from a few months ago that was enduring the rookie growing pains of Roger Rosengarten and Nate Wiggins (now emerging stars), Justin Tucker's yips, and still starting Eddie Jackson and Marcus Williams at safety. Instead of reevaluating and adjusting accordingly, he'll just go down with the ship.

"Zay Flowers is doubtful. Yet, the Ravens are still favored because of the mania surrounding this team."

During Flowers' career, BAL is 13-0 SU (including 2-0 SU in the playoffs) in games in which Flowers was inactive or targeted less than 5 times. Just more two-TE sets, more targets for Bateman, Likely and Hill, and more Ricard/6 OL jumbo sets. (Smallish BUF defense ranked 31st vs. jumbo sets, BTW.)

The Ravens aren't favored because of mania. The Ravens are favored because they are a matchup nightmare for the Bills and can beat you in a dozen different ways right now.

@WFDevTeam 

Can only speak for myself, but here's what I think:

The "BAL's secondary is weak" angle is incorrect. Has been for a while. Boundary CB Brandon Stephens alone is the weak link - maybe on the entire team. Walt's "The Bills are better than the Ravens" take - while defiantly bold - is untrue. It's untrue by every offensive and defensive metric, and it's untrue if you simply look at the roster talent position-by-position. And this is all before factoring in John Harbaugh's historic road playoff record (#1 in road playoff wins and road playoff win % in NFL history), BUF's recent trouble TCB at home in the divisional round, and the fact that BUF's run-funnel, light box defensive scheme is the exact opposite of what you want to contain Jackson/Henry. The Ravens are an awful schematic matchup for the Bills defense and it's hardly mentioned in his writeup because he's too busy with Group A/Group B hocus pocus.

Walt's BUF>BAL play is largely based on that Group A/Group B stuff - which is inherently flawed because what teams are good on any given week is totally fluid, and it's too easy to leave out pertinent facts that don't fit your argument. (Such as the fact that BAL is 8-3 against playoff teams and would be 10-1 had it not been for Justin Tucker missing three kicks in two of those games. I can go a step further in that "what if" game: BAL would have entered the playoffs 15-2 had Tucker just been his usually reliable self and had Kyle Hamilton not dropped a sure game-ending Jameis Winston INT that hit him between the numbers vs. CLE back in October.)

Sure, Walt could eventually be right about a BAL opponent winning by targeting and burning Stephens, but that only happens if Stephens is matched up against a reliable boundary deep threat. BUF is actually an easier matchup for Stevens than PIT in that regard because Wilson-to-Pickens deep stuff is largely how PIT won through the air, whereas BUF is more about efficient over-the-middle feeds to Shakir/Samuel/TEs and a healthy dose of Superman stuff from Josh Allen. (This actually plays right into the R. Smith/Humphrey/Hamilton strength of BAL's defense.) Basically, you're banking on Keon Coleman and/or Mack Hollins to step up and give Stephens the business. Possible, but a very shaky bet.

One also has to assume that opponent controls the BAL ground game, which even the best run defenses haven't been able to do all season. Like, not at all. PIT wasn't the team to do it, and neither is BUF. Milano's presence won't change that. Milano is obviously compromised and has been mostly awful since his return. His 56.6 PFF run D grade is 148th/189 LBs, and his 48.0 overall LB grade is 161st/189 LBs, and all that is after his 86.3 grade vs. DEN - a game where Milano's role was almost purely to spy Bo Nix. If BUF uses Milano to spy Lamar Jackson, Jackson is going to break Milano's ankles and rush for 100 yards.

@lewseyrich 

Oops. Misread and feeling defensive. Apologies.

Yeah, agree about the commentators stuff. At this point it's just done out of tradition and goes unread. It's this site's equivalent of a holiday fruitcake.

"...there's an inexplicable mania surrounding the Ravens..."

This is like saying there was an inexplicable mania surrounding the '99 Greatest Show On Turf Rams. The '24 Ravens are 2nd only to those '99 Rams in offensive EPA in the SB era.

People are bedazzled by Henry because they should be. He's arguably the best post-season RB in history and is running possessed. He's been a steamroller the entire season, even against PHI and TB with Vea. His Wildcard performance had nothing to do with a lack of effort by PIT - what you witnessed was a defense that got it's soul crushed by Henry and a dominant BAL O-line.

Your BUF pick is built off the assumption that BUF will contain Henry this time around, just as you assumed PIT would contain Henry in your picks last week. Good luck with that.

BUF's run defense is...just okay? (4.5 YPRA). BAL's run defense is the best in the NFL by a wide margin.

BUF's rushing attack is good. BAL's rushing attack is historically elite.

Henry is currently running with a "IF YOU GET IN MY WAY I'LL F*CKING KILL YOU" determination. Now is his time to get a ring. This is '82 playoffs John Riggins-type stuff.

@WFDevTeam 

I dunno - I think it's more playfully gloating than bitter.

I've also been waiting a long time for the opportunity to shoehorn my favorite Sopranos line into a comment. Had to go for it.

I'm looking forward to his Week 20 picks to see how far off my parody is. I predict there will be suggestion that the 4th-down play would have somehow made a difference, how BAL is overrated and how bad their secondary is. 

I also predict BAL will beat BUF. The Ravens are perfectly designed to win on the road in the playoffs.

LAC -2.5  With Denzel Perryman's status still up in the air, I'll assume that both teams will be able to establish serviceable ground games and trade some early-game body blows, so the key questions here are which QB will face more pressure and which defense will be able to contain the opposing offense's best target as the game unfolds. I give the Chargers the advantage at both.

HOU's defensive scheme is predicated on consistent edge pressure from Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. The Chargers are equipt like no other AFC playoff team to contain them with Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. Conversely, Bosa and Mack will be taking turns on outmatched HOU RT Blake Fisher.

With a relatively clean pocket, Herbert will chisel away at the HOU defense with Ladd McConkey. Derek Stingley's shadow duties begin and end along the boundary, so McConkey will very likely see slot coverage from some combination of Myles Bryant, Jeff Okudah and Eric Murray. This just screams 11/120/2 for McConkey. On the flip side, the Chargers will be able to focus completely on containing Nico Collins, and should be successful, just as that historically bad BAL secondary was in Week 17. HOU's only other viable target is Dalton Schultz, and he has flat-out sucked all season. I don't see why he would stop sucking now, especially matched up against two of the NFL's highest-graded TE-erasers in Daiyan Henley and Derwin James.

I'm fairly confident the Chargers TCB (especially if Perryman plays), but since this is LA's first playoff appearance under a new regime (often a bad spot ATS, especially as a road favorite), I'll be laying off this game.

BAL -9.5  Rashod Bateman fully breaks out with 8/120/1, George Pickens melts down, and the Ravens beat the piss out of the Steelers. I'm betting every dime in the bank and a pinkie finger without hesitation. For more details, scroll down.

GL to all

No mention of rookie RG Mason McCormick's broken hand?

McCormick isn't Chris Lindstrom or anything, but he's been a godsend through the Fautanu, Daniels and Seaumalo injuries. The PIT O-line is mediocre, with fragile chemistry and crappy depth. They absolutely cannot lose another starter right now.

PIT beat writers seem confident McCormick will be OUT. They're saying the surprise release of WR Scotty Miller yesterday was almost certainly to activate OT Calvin Anderson to replace the depth lost with Spencer Anderson moving in at RG for McCormick. Anderson was horrid in his three games before being benched earlier this season.

@woo hoo 

More LAR motivation: McVay has reportedly put printed screen shots in the Rams locker room of Dan Campbell telling Kevin O'Connell "I'll see you in two weeks".

The Steelers have lost 5 straight playoff games with their opponents scoring an average of 40.4 PPG.

They've been outscored 66-0 in the first quarter of those games.

The Steelers haven't scored more than 17 points in over a month.

The Ravens have scored at least 30 points in 11 of the past 14 weeks.

Mentioned often: Steelers have won 8 of last 10 vs. BAL.

Not mentioned as often: Lamar Jackson was unavailable for 6 of those 10 games.

Per PFF, 138 CBs have played 100 or more coverage snaps this season.

Cam Sutton is ranked 128th.

Donte Jackson is ranked 132nd.

Of 223 CBs, Joey Porter Jr. (55.0) is PFF's 160th-ranked in overall grade.

Brandon Stephens's PFF grade of 55.8 is the lowest by 15 points in the BAL secondary. (Wiggins 70.7, A. Washington 80.3, Humphrey 81.0, Hamilton 90.1)

Stephens would be the highest graded PIT CB.

But let's talk about BAL's awful secondary.

Do you think CLE would still draft Ward at 1.2 if the rumored Stefanski/Cousins reunion comes to fruition? Even if CLE acquires Cousins, I would still consider QB to be CLE's greatest need without hesitation.

Interesting to see Kenneth Grant flirting with the top 10 in your mock. Seems like many are down on him, and I'm not sure why. Athletic freak that should kill at the Combine.

Good to see a NoHeroes mock so early in the process. Look forward to more.

@DoctorJ 

You must be crazy. Pickens is a clutch late-season and playoffs performer. I mean, have you already forgotten his monster 11 TGT/5 REC/50 YD/0 TD/1 LOST FMB performance in PIT's 31-17 loss to BUF in last season's WC?

"Ravens-Steelers games are almost always close, and now Baltimore may be the team missing it's No. 1 receiver"

In your analysis of the PIT/BAL matchup, this is the only sentence where I thought, "fair enough". Every other angle is either 7 weeks outdated or the result of getting lost in the labyrinth of that Group A/Group B thought experiment.

I believe in being thorough, so I don't find the Group A/Group B tangents as ridiculous as some commenters, but when you start saying stuff like "PIT could have kept it closer if Russell Wilson hadn't fumbled near the GL, thrown that pick-6, etc", you're officially in "can't see the forest for the trees" territory.

Lost in your analysis are the simple facts that Wilson is regressing badly and PIT is a team in collapse. Not sure how this is being missed, as late-season lulls and quick playoff exits are nothing new for the Tomlin Steelers. Meanwhile, the Ravens - a team built for January football like no other - is peaking in all three phases at just the right time, as John Harbaugh teams often do.

"Pickens will be available this time, which is huge because it allows the Steelers to exploit Baltimore's biggest weakness, which is the secondary"

I have tried to get through to Private Pyle, but I have failed.

Me and some other commenters have tried to correct you on your "Ravens awful secondary" angle, but that outdated narrative just continues to roll along for some reason, so I'll just leave some stuff here:

• Since Week 11 - when Marlon Humphrey returned to health and took over the roaming slot CB role from Kyle Hamilton, with Hamilton replacing the completely washed Marcus Williams at FS, and Ar'Darius Washington taking on the full-time SS role - the Ravens have allowed the league's fewest points and fewest net yards p/game.
• Since Week 11, the BAL secondary has allowed an NFL-low passer rating of 75.5 and NFL-low EPA p/dropback. 
• Since Week 11, BAL's secondary is PFF's highest-graded. Humphrey is the highest graded CB, and Hamilton the 2nd-highest graded S. Both are Pro-Bowlers and All-Pro considerations.
• Since Week 11, Wiggins is the 2nd-highest graded rookie CB. He's steadily improved with increasing PT, blossoming from an early-season rotational liability into a 92% snap count corner that blankets Malik Nabers and is a pick-6 threat QBs are learning to avoid.
• Since Week 11, Brandon Stephens (the only member of the secondary that can even be considered a "weakness") has been targeted the 5th-most among NFL CBs, and he's held up admirably. His 67.7% catch rate allowed is better than more heralded CBs like Pat Surtain and Jalen Ramsey.

You'll argue that BAL's defensive improvement has come against bad teams, but HOU - a team that you are currently suggesting could upset the Chargers and make an '08 Cardinals-type SB run - was just held to zero points by the BAL defense.

But "Pickens will be available this time".

Yeah, and?

Like most things in PIT right now, the Wilson-to-Pickens connection is clearly broken. Pickens hasn't had more than 4 catches or 74 yards in a game since mid-November, and is coming off a miserable goose egg performance. Most importantly: Pickens is the kind of player that - when the going gets tough - is more likely to drop two passes, have a meltdown and get ejected than step up with a huge performance. It's who he is. Is Pickens really the guy you want as a foundational angle to your Pick of The Month?

"The Steelers should be better against the run than that. They'll do a better job of limiting Henry"

Are you sure about that?

PIT gave up 220 rushing yards to BAL two weeks ago. What's changed? Other than Mike Tomlin now hinting at getting Justin Fields in there to try to get something going. (Which would likely just mean even more PIT TOs and BAL clock-killing ground dominance.)

The facts are that PIT has been leaky against the run recently and are going up against a historically dominant BAL rushing attack that has routinely gashed top-10 run defenses this season (271 yards vs. BUF, 249 vs. TB with Vea, 166 vs. PHI, etc).

BAL doesn't really have a weakness right now. Everything is falling into place at the right time. I mean, even Justin Tucker, who missed 8 FGs and 2 XPs before BAL's bye week, hasn't missed a kick since. 

BAL 35 PIT 20

@Barnowl1952 

Beck and Ewers seem like future NFL backups. Just feels like Day 2 stuff like Colt McCoy, Eric Zeier, Deshone Kizer, Cody Kessler, etc, all over again. If there's any chance Ward or Sanders can develop into a franchise QB, CLE has to choose one. Otherwise, the organization will just continue spinning it's wheels.

Another final Sunday of the regular season. As with tradition, I've already donned the black armband and had a moment of silence. The buffalo wings and chili fries are en route.

Here's what I got on early games:

ATL -7.5 NO BET I was leaning CAR here, as the Panthers have shown periodic spunk under Canales, and the possibility of a blowout in TB could render ATL deflated by the late-3rd quarter. Then I saw CAR's injury report.

With Josey Jewell and Jaycee Horn ruled OUT, ATL could easily name their score against CAR's practice squad D. With no Hubbard and injuries on the right side of the O-line, peppering Thielen with a million targets probably won't be enough to keep up. Still, I'm not touching this one.

DAL +7 LIGHT Was gonna pass here, then the line moved from 4.5 to 7.

Weird stuff happens in this rivalry. Much more importantly, I think WAS is overrated. Have for a while. Hail Marys...Hurts going down early...WAS has been very lucky and are a deceiving 11-5, IMO.

WAS has nothing but vague seeding to play for, and avoiding PHI may (wrongly) be of little concern having just defeated them. Parsons vs. that banged-up O-line...no Lattimore (ever?)...I wouldn't be shocked if DAL wins SU.

CHI +10 NO BET As with WAS, I think seeding motivation will be minimal - at best - for GB. On the road and with zero pressure in a meaningless game, my hunch is we finally see Caleb Williams and those WRs do enough damage for the backdoor cover. However, the CHI run defense is such crap that GB's backup RBs could simply control the game start-to-finish. The "but those CHI WRs!/backdoor" logic has burned me all year, so I'm laying off.

JAX +3.5 NO BET ATS/LIGHT ON OVER  I was sniffing around an IND fade until Josh Hines-Allen was ruled OUT. The IND defense has totally packed it in. I mean, Drew Lock?? That sin is unforgivable.

Brian Thomas Jr. - motivated by that Pro Bowl snub - could go nuclear on a rusty JuJu Brents. Still, those angles aren't enough for an ATS wager on a Doug Pederson team.

BUF -3.5 LIGHT  A scroll of angles favor BUF.

• Mayo is a dead man walking in NE. The Pats - looking to finally sever all ties with the Belichick era - will fire him tomorrow, and I'm not even sure if his players like him enough to send him out on a positive note.
• NE currently will be able to auction of the 1st pick in the draft for a boatload of much-needed rebuilding ammo, or simply pick a superstar in Travis Hunter. This has to be baked in.
• Many of BUF's backups are better than the starters the Pats are currently trotting out. A few of those backups (Von Miller, Dawson Knox) will be motivated by hefty contract incentives.
• Ray Davis smash spot. 100% guaranteed.

PHI -2 NO BET  Same deal here as BUF/NE. PHI's backup O-line and secondary may be better than NYG's current starters, and guys like Calcaterra, Ojomo, etc, could start for NY.

From what I've seen of Tanner McKee in preseason action, I would take him over Lock if I was building a team.

Still, no bet. Because Malik Nabers. Nabers only needs targets to kill any bet on PHI here, and - motivated by his race with Bowers for those rookie receiving records - he's undoubtedly going to get them.

NO +14  NO BET ATS/LIGHT ON OVER  Pure gut here. Every ounce of pressure is on TB. Given their current RB and interior O-line situation, NO won't even attempt to run vs. Vea and crew. However, I don't trust that banged-up TB secondary - even against Rattler, MV-S, Moreau, etc. - to prevent a backdoor.

TEN -1.5 NO BET  Obvious 1st half/2nd half appeal here, but also obvious Will Levis, so I'll pass.

The Titans have already defeated HOU at full health back in November, and HOU honestly hasn't been very good since then. With Tony Pollard playing and motivated by nearly $500,000 in very attainable bonuses, TEN feels like the right side.

Happy hunting fellas.

@Baird 

They're insisting Rodgers will start. The dude has this organization held hostage. I have to think the leash will be short though.

O-line injuries could be key here. Looks like MIA could be without Armstead and Lamm (IR today). However, DNPs for Moses and AV-T is just as concerning for the Jets. If they can't go, Chop Robinson could one-man wreck the right side of the NYJ O-line.

For those thinking about betting the 49ers, SF is down to their 4th-string LT, LG Aaron Banks is OUT, and RT Colton McKivitz (who sucks anyway) went from LP on THU to DNP on FRI. Here's the likely starting SF O-line vs. the Lions:

LT Charlie Heck (LOL)

LG Nick Zakelj (???)

C Jake Brendel

RG Dominick Puni

RT Austin Pleasents (???)

I pride myself on autistically thorough NFL Draft research, and I have never heard of Zakeelj and Pleasents. This O-line is going to make Josh Paschal and Levi Onwuzurike look like All-Pros.

Conversely, the only remaining SF pass-rusher worth a damn (Bosa) will be erased by Penei Sewell. I keep reading about how DET/SF is going to be a highly competitive shootout; I just don't see it. The somehow still overrated Niners are gonna get Jahmyr Gibbsed to death.

For those thinking about betting the 49ers, SF is down to their 4th-string LT, LG Aaron Banks is OUT, and RT Colton McKivitz (who sucks anyway) went from LP on THU to DNP on FRI. Here's the likely starting SF O-line vs. the Lions:

LT Charlie Heck (LOL)

LG Nick Zakelj (???)

C Jake Brendel

RG Dominick Puni

RT Austin Pleasents (???)

I pride myself on autistically thorough NFL Draft research, and I have never heard of Zakeelj and Pleasents. This O-line is going to make Josh Paschal and Levi Onwuzurike look like All-Pros.

Conversely, the only remaining SF pass-rusher worth a damn (Bosa) will be erased by Penei Sewell. I keep reading about how DET/SF is going to be a highly competitive shootout; I just don't see it. The somehow still overrated Niners are gonna get Jahmyr Gibbsed to death.

I'd appreciate any angles anyone can offer on DEN/CIN. I'm basically certain that the Chargers TCB @NE, so not only is DEN/CIN crucial to the playoff hopes of the Bengals and Broncos, it's crucial to MIA, IND and SEA (SOS tiebreaker). I feel like I've turned over every stone, yet am still pretty much 50/50 on this one.

Advantage DEN:

• DEN elite scoring defense, pressure rate and sacks ranking. Nick Bonitto (11.5 sacks), Jonathon Cooper (8.0) and Zach Allen (5.0, 33 QB hits) have been quietly excellent and should thrive, especially if Mims can't go and CIN has to throw Cody Ford or Devin Cochran into the fire at RT. Burrow has been effective in avoiding pressure, climbing the pocket, and completing last-moment, rabbit-out-of-the-hat no-look passes and such, but is that sustainable vs. the Broncos?
  
• Chase vs. Surtain. We obviously can't assume any CB will shut down Chase, but if there's a CB physically and stylistically designed to do it, it's Surtain. He's done it before. (Held Chase to 4 targets/1 catch/3 yards in their last matchup.)
• CIN short week/DEN 9-days rest. Extra rest (22-9), off a loss (52-29), following TNF (10-4) and consecutive road games are spots where Payton has historically done well. Just trends, but it's something.
• CIN MUST WIN. You'd think this would be a motivational advantage for CIN, but I think it could easily be a negative in this spot. DEN hasn't clinched, is desperate to make the playoffs for the first time since '15, and can't assume victory vs. KC in Week 18 (even if the KC stars only play a few drives), so it's not as if there's no motivation for the Broncos. CIN has been pretty much in must-win mode for a while now, yet have only answered the bell against bad teams. The bottom line is it feels like CIN is still seen as the team that always digs themselves out of the hole, and the assumption that they will do it again is still being baked into their Vegas pricing. Thing is, this just isn't the same team that pulled it off in recent seasons.  Been there, done that vets like Reader, Hubbard, Wilson, Awuzie, Bates, Mixon, J. Williams, etc, have been replaced in the CIN lineup by downgrades, rookies and 2nd-year guys. Will they step up?
  

ADVANTAGE CIN:

• CIN ranks 29th in success rate vs. RBs, but does DEN have a good RB? Will someone emerge from DEN's kinda icky RBBC to take advantage? If so, DEN wins. The Broncos had a good lather going with the running game vs. the Chargers - building an 11-point lead - then inexplicably abandoned it. That can't happen again because...
• ...DEN can't get roped into a shootout with CIN. The Bengals don't have a CB that can deal with Courtland Sutton - so he's gonna get his numbers - but DEN will need more if the game goes back-and-forth. Marvin Mims and his recent poor man's Deebo Samuel routine doesn't feel like enough. CIN's recent success has been predicated on roping teams with bad QBs (Rush/Levis/DT-R) into shootouts, then letting their bad defense gather the inevitable basket of turnovers. So the most important question in this game is...
• Is Bo Nix that good, really? Since a turnover-heavy patch a few weeks back, Nix has been more efficient recently and put up decent numbers, but the air yards p/attempt have declined. Are the Broncos hiding him? With a gun to my head, I'm thinking the ride ends for CIN today, but I fear a shootout in which Nix is exposed.

@DoctorJ 

Pickett practiced and spoke to the media. He'll probably start.

@Baird 

I'd take NO's ranking vs. TEs with a grain of salt. The LB crew is the strength of their defense, but a lot of their success vs. TEs has been circumstantial.

Right off the bat, the NFC South is a below-average TE division. The NO TE defense has been bolstered by 4 games vs. CAR (where TEs are an ever-injured hodgepodge of afterthoughts) and ATL (where Pitts has basically become the Invisible Man). In NO's 51-27 blowout loss to TB, Otton was getting in a lather and had an early TD before sitting out, and Godwin was gobbling up every target in sight anyway (11/125/2).

The NO non-division schedule has featured DAL (Ferguson OUT), DEN (practice squad-level TEs rarely targeted), LAR (Higbee OUT), NYG (Theo Johnson OUT), WAS (Ertz left early-1st quarter w/concussion), LAC (Hurst OUT/Dissly injured), and GB (blowout/Kraft unneeded as Packers basically did whatever they want). 

In their only three games vs. healthy, dangerous TEs that demand 2nd/3rd option volume, the Saints have given up 9/81 to David Njoku, 11/99 to Kelce (9/70)/Gray, and 10/170 (!!) to Dallas Goedert. Bowers is basically WR1 for LV and should go bonkers.

@Nagurski 

The "Ravens have a poor pass defense" narrative has been bothering me for a while now because it's incorrect and seems to be foundational to the "Ravens are overrated" argument, so allow me to pile on.

Since Marlon Humphrey's return to full health and Kyle Hamilton's switch from the slot to FS (around Week 10, as you said), Humphrey has been the NFL's top-graded CB and the BAL pass defense is #1 in EPA allowed per dropback. Nate Wiggins has improved by the week (smothered Malik Nabers) and Ar'Darius Washington has been a revelation at SS.

With Tank Dell out, Nico Collins -who hasn't really looked right since returning from injury anyway - may have a hard time getting loose.

@Baird 

Also decided to go light on JAX+2.5. I usually avoid crap vs. crap, but LV is really crappy. Gotta take the points.

Save for the total meltdown @DET a few weeks ago, JAX has been keeping games close since mid-October. The O-line is healthy, Etienne/Bigsby are showing signs of life, Brenton Strange has actually been an upgrade from Evan Engram, and there's still good, young talent peppered along that JAX defensive depth chart. The Raiders are as poorly coached as JAX, and with Maxx Crosby out for the year, they have absolutely nothing on defense.

I think Brian Thomas Jr. gets loose vs. that awful LV secondary. Tyson Campbell should be able to contain a banged-up Jacobi Meyers, so my only concern is Bowers going off for 150 yards/2 TDs or something and burning me. Possible, but I'm gonna risk it. GL and enjoy

@Charles Beagle 

I get that CHI drafted Odunze to ensure Caleb Williams won't be lacking for quality targets anytime soon, but my God would Chop Robinson or Dallas Turner have looked good opposite Montez Sweat. Pace may have even been able to grab either after trading down with a team desperate to move up ahead of MIN for McCarthy or Nix. Pace kinda blew that one, IMO.

You're seriously overthinking the Rams/motivation angle.

"If the Rams win this game and the next one....provided SEA beats MIN, which is very possible...I don't know if the Rams will know this..."

MIN beating SEA is also very possible, and I'm sure the Rams are aware that they'll be alone in first place if that happens and they TCB vs. the Jets.

The Jets have done well the past two weeks because Mike McDaniel and Doug Pederson happen to be two of the few HCs that don't have a pronounced advantage over Jeff Ulbrich and company. Sean McVay won't let the Rams walk into an ambush.

@Osmodiar 

Agree, but is there a tackle worth taking in the top-10?

When the Rams and Niners met in Week 3, the Rams were without Nacua and Kupp, while SF still had Mason, Aiyuk, Trent Williams and Hargrove...and the Rams won 27-24 as 6.5 point dogs.

The Rams have 1 turnover in the last four games, while the Niners have 8.

On career snaps Brock Purdy has played with Trent Williams in the lineup, the SF offense has averaged 0.18 EPA per play. On snaps taken without Williams in the lineup, the EPA drops to 0.0.

Since 2023, SF averages 2 TDs p/game when Trent Williams is injured. The Niners are 1-2 without Williams this season. In 2023, Purdy had 28 TD/2 INT with a healthy Williams, and 3 TD/9 INT without.

Sean McVay is 6-2 on short rest.

When the Rams and Niners met in Week 3, the Rams were without Nacua and Kupp, while SF still had Mason, Aiyuk, Trent Williams and Hargrove...and the Rams won 27-24 as 6.5 point dogs.

The Rams have 1 turnover in the last four games, while the Niners have 8.

On career snaps Brock Purdy has played with Trent Williams in the lineup, the SF offense has averaged 0.18 EPA per play. On snaps taken without Williams in the lineup, the EPA drops to 0.0.

Since 2023, SF averages 2 TDs p/game when Trent Williams is injured. The Niners are 1-2 without Williams this season. In 2023, Purdy had 28 TD/2 INT with a healthy Williams, and 3 TD/9 INT without.

Sean McVay is 6-2 on short rest.

When the Rams and Niners met in Week 3, the Rams were without Nacua and Kupp, while SF still had Mason, Aiyuk, Trent Williams and Hargrove...and the Rams won 27-24 as 6.5 point dogs.

The Rams have 1 turnover in the last four games, while the Niners have 8.

On career snaps Brock Purdy has played with Trent Williams in the lineup, the SF offense has averaged 0.18 EPA per play. On snaps taken without Williams in the lineup, the EPA drops to 0.0.

Since 2023, SF averages 2 TDs p/game when Trent Williams is injured. The Niners are 1-2 without Williams this season. In 2023, Purdy had 28 TD/2 INT with a healthy Williams, and 3 TD/9 INT without.

Sean McVay is 6-2 on short rest.

@Baird 

That is so embarrassing.

Might be 6-0. Then again, the Jets need their annual late-season/meaningless win that ensures they drop out of range for a decent QB in the draft.

@DoctorJ 

My only beef with this analysis is the defensive stats angle. DET's defensive stats have to be taken with a huge grain of salt now that their front seven has been decimated by injury. I mean, Glenn's scheming is top-notch, but when you're down to starting guys like Al-Quadin Muhammad, Pat O'Connor, Jonah Williams, Ezekial Turner...that's gotta catch up to you.

@Baird 

LV absolutely can't run the ball. They shouldn't even waste their time trying vs. TB. I imagine Irving/White/Tucker will find success from jump, so O'Connell should be flinging it early and often. The TB pass D is susceptible.

The Bucs are awful defending the slot. If Tykee Smith is OUT again, Meyers could practically be running against air. Bowers will do his usual Bowers things, so there's real shootout potential in this one - assuming LV puts forth a little effort. I don't see why they wouldn't - it's not as if they're coming down from anything. They were never in contention to begin with. Pierce and his staff are awful, but the players like them, so I can't imagine LV just full-on rolling over.

I'm sniffing around an O'Connell/Meyers/Bowers stack for DFS tournaments, maybe with an Otton runback. (Two-TE uniqueness/Mike Evans hurt, QUESTIONABLE).

I'm with you on the Giants emerging with the #1 pick. Miserable vibes in that locker room. Drew Lock is now operating behind 3rd-string OTs...that's going to get really ugly. Schoen and Daboll feel like dead men walking.

My top play this week is ATL+1.5 at home. I think the Falcons win SU. Maybe even comfortably.

It's assumed that Jim Harbaugh's strong running game/strong defense foundation will travel well vs. a team like ATL, but way too many cracks are forming in that foundation to ignore.

For Harbaugh's formula to succeed, Gus Edwards will need to bite off chunks, and I don't see that happening. He looks totally cooked. (Yeah, maybe Hassan Haskins/Kimani Vidal get plugged in and do some damage, but I wouldn't count on it.)

As improved as the LAC O-line has been, ATL's O-line is better - especially with Drew Dalman healthy again. ATL should be able to control the LOS against an overrated and injured LAC run defense.

The rash of LB injuries leaves it up slowpokes like Nick Niemann to deal with Bijan Robinson swinging out of the backfield. This does not bode well for the Chargers. Even if Derwin James plays closer to the LOS, that would mean trash like Marcus Maye getting too much run at safety. Either way, there's going to be ample space for ATL's speedy targets.

Cousins should be pretty cozy in the pocket. Bosa and Mack are playing hurt and seriously dragging ass toward the season's finish line. London, Mooney and maybe even Pitts should all eat vs a very susceptible LAC secondary. (Asante Samuel Jr. is out for the season. Alohi Gilman and Cam Hart are OUT, while Kristian Fulton is predictably regressing. Derwin James can't be everywhere at once.)

I would have liked Herbert to keep pace in a shootout a few weeks ago, but not now. Not without Dobbins, and not with Quintin Johnston regressing back to BUST form after an unsustainably efficient start to the season. Ladd McConkey might even be banged up. (Beware the rookie wall.)

Harbaugh's records ATS off a loss and in cross-country games are impressive, but they're still just trends and are outweighed by a lot of emerging problems for the Chargers - especially in a game sandwiched between the Harbaugh Bowl and @KC in prime time next week. ATL has TB on their ass and should show up.

Sharps on the Jets as Ian Rapoport reports Aaron Rodgers won't return to the Jets next season lol.

@Baird 

"I suck at betting AZ & NO "

Same here. But I think I may have finally figured the Cardinals out. (As for the Saints - they had their little, new rah-rah coach, pre-bye fun. I think the Rams beat them in workmanlike fashion.)

ARI GM Monti Ossenfort and Jonathan Gannon were great hires. They're establishing culture the right way and the arrow is pointing up for the organization. So when they face teams that are poorly coached (those pre-bye Ws vs. MIA, CHI and NYJ perfect examples), they TCB - especially if the opponent struggles vs. the run. Otherwise, the Cardinals can be had. They just don't have a very talented depth chart (especially on defense) and it catches up to them when they face teams with a good coaching staff. You take away Conner, and the offense becomes little more than McBride-or-bust, as none of the WRS have been able to create separation or YAC this season. Petzing's scheme has grown predictable and has shackled Murray. (One game above 21 rushing yards since Week 5.) The interior O-line is a glaring weakness and was fully exposed by SEA.

The Vikings are extremely well-coached and nails vs. the run. ARI doesn't match up well at all. As for the Flores blitz vs. Murray angle, I'm calling for variance. I would bet MIN if not for the Pace injury and my distrust of Sam Darnold.

@xndrshadow 

Milroe might be the Anthony Richardson, "upside" prospect.

@Karensman 

Ohio resident here. Seems like the Burrow/wrist quotes are being overblown a bit. He basically just said that - in the past - cold weather has had an affect on his injuries, which is just kinda "duh". He said he "could have been better" throwing in practice, but "I/we could have been better" is his weekly default answer for everything, so I wouldn't read too much into that.

@Baird 

How dare you pooh-pooh the great Dan Skipper!

I want so badly to throw some cabbage at CHI. Offense is ramping up a bit since the Waldron firing and return of some O-line starters...Moore/Allen/Odunze vs. those DET CBs...could be CHI's Super Bowl...it all screams back door. Then I remember Campbell vs. Eberflus. And like you said, CHI may be running on fumes.

The injuries don't seem to be letting up for SF. New reports say Fred Warner has a fractured ankle (would explain those uncharacteristic missed tackles lately), and Trent Williams was just seen in the SF locker room using a knee scooter. Reportedly, he "can barely walk" and is probably dealing with an Achilles injury. Not good. Both are likely trending more toward trips to the IR than returns to health.

Niners are just getting eaten alive by the injury bug. Beginning to wonder if there's something to that Super Bowl Loser Curse stuff.

I don't buy the Cardinals as a great team. Screw the net adjusted EPA.

Great teams aren't flat off a bye when they're going into a divisional matchup for first place.

Kyler Murray isn't playing well right now. I recently read an article describing Murray as "deluxe Daniel Jones". That might not be too far off. Six seasons in, and we're still waiting for Murray to blossom.

I don't buy the Cardinals as a great team. Screw the net adjusted EPA.

Great teams aren't flat off a bye when they're going into a divisional matchup for first place.

Kyler Murray isn't playing well right now. I recently read an article describing Murray as "deluxe Daniel Jones". That might not be too far off. Six seasons in, and we're still waiting for Murray to blossom.

@v2micca 

Ardent Jets fan here. You are 100% right. The Jets are receiving nothing but negative press right now. If/when Rodgers is benched or injured, the switch to Tyrod Taylor might actually push the Jets toward underrated territory. Even at 35, Taylor probably still has functional mobility - which Rodgers absolutely doesn't anymore.

@Baird 

The more I think about it, the more confident I am that this is going to be a "bad Jameis" game. All the signs are there: Crappy weather...Chubb and Conklin shells of their former selves...no viable LT vs. a PIT defense that has been letting T.J. Watt pick his spots against both edges...Minkah Fitzpatrick waaay overdue for a pick-six...a potential feast for Harris/Warren vs. a JO-Kless CLE defense that has forgotten how to tackle...it could get ugly. So much so that PIT might get comfortably ahead, ease up, and let Winston feed Njoku for some garbage time goodness or something. I like PIT and the OVER.

@Karensman 

Nick Chubb is a month shy of his 29th birthday. That's old relative to RBs, and Chubb is a very old 29. Last season's leg injury was vomit-inducing, and he had an equally gross leg injury in college.

Chubb is the heart and soul of the team - so his return has some short-term "good vibes" value - but he just doesn't look the same. Given his age/mileage, I think it would be a miracle if he ever will.

As for Stafford - yeah, everyone in the NFL is playing hurt to some degree, but not all injuries are equal. From what I've gathered, Stafford's main issue is his back - and back issues are often career-killers. Stafford is approaching 37. He's still a high-level QB, but It just feels like he's on borrowed time.

@Baird 

The rain/wind should be advantageous for PIT. It only strengthens the Boswell>Hopkins angle.

I think Nick Chubb may be cooked; if Winston has to throw it around, the TOs could easily pile up for CLE. Harris/Warren were biting off chunks vs. BAL, so running on CLE should be no problem.

I'm liking CHI as a home dog. Very often, mid-season coordinator firings are just a case of somebody taking the fall for organization-wide problems, but in the case of Shane Waldron, I think he really was the problem. The Bears should improve going forward, and I don't trust Sam Darnold in this spot.

@Baird 

Freakin' Taysom Hill, man. Feels like he's been around since 2002, and he's one of those Mormon mission BYU grads...how is he not like 47 years old? Spends most of his time injured, only popping up to go nuclear when it ruins NO's draft position and absolutely screws me in betting and DFS tournaments. I wish he'd just stop.

Just piss-poor special teams and overall tackling from CLE. Rare quiet game from Myles Garrett. I still think CLE was the right side, although I probably underrated the absence of JO-K. He would have come in handy in limiting Hill.

I'm probably a glutton for punishment, but I'm sniffing around CLE +4 at home vs. PIT. Feels like a trap game for the Steelers.

@Baird 

As a Rams fan, how do you like their WC chances? I'm having trouble getting a read on them. Unprepared and mistake-prone was what I expected from MIA, not the Rams. Just feels like there's some angle I'm missing that might have them overvalued right now. Youth? So many of their key contributors are 1st/2nd year guys...

I think the Havenstein injury could be a real problem vs. the Pats. Keion White and Deatrich Wise are a quietly dominant tag team at LDE.

PIT, IND win SU.

LAC, ATL, NYJ win in blowouts.

Feeling TB and HOU covers.

Happy hunting, gentlemen.

@Karensman 

Betting the Browns is icky, but a few things:

Stefanski is a solid coach, IMO. No coach would have succeeded in the situation management forced upon him with the Watson signing.

I don't know much about Darren Rizzi, but I know this: Teams almost always get a pronounced one-game bump upon an in-season coaching change. Even with that bump, the Saints still would have lost at home to an obviously flat ATL squad had it not been for some last-minute clock mismanagement by the Falcons and three missed Younghoe Koo FGs. Like Marquez Valdez-Scantling's stat line, that victory was an obvious fluke.

Kamara may be the best offensive weapon in this matchup, but beyond him, it's crap like MVS, Foster Moreau and some guy called Mason Tipton for the Saints. I'll take Njoku, a healthy Chubb/Ford RB tag team, and the Tillman/Jeudy/Moore WR trio over what the Saints are trotting out any day. (Small sample size, but since CLE traded Amari Cooper, Cedric Tillman is second only to Ja'Marr Chase by many WR performance metrics.) The Saints - already down C Erik McCoy - may also be without the left side of their O-line for this one. The NO offensive depth chart is a disaster.

As for MIA - I'm not sure how legit Monday's win was. Not sure if a game vs. a team as untalented and poorly-coached as LV will provide us any clarity, either. Kinda wait-and-see with MIA. Tua isn't pushing the ball downfield, Tyreek is obviously hurt, and the Austin Jackson injury means a RT Kendall Lamm vs. LDE Maxx Crosby glaring mismatch. A Raiders win wouldn't shock me, but I'm not touching that game.

@Karensman 

Regarding the CIN/LAC spread - I think bettors are still leaning hard into the "this is a must-win for the Bengals" angle. It's an obvious and fair take, but it can be argued that CIN has been close to (or even in) must-win territory for weeks now, yet they continue laying eggs. Expecting this week to be the week the Bengals suddenly flip the switch is starting to feel like definition of insanity from a betting perspective. Joe Burrow is playing as well as can possibly be expected, yet CIN keeps coming out flat and losing. The CIN O-line sucks, the defense is a one-man show (Hendrickson), and Zac Taylor just can't light a fire under his team while being a miserable in-game manager. All the evidence says that CIN just isn't very good, yet bettors are falling into the trap of valuing them by what they should be instead of what they are.

My top play is CLE. I think the Browns win SU - maybe even comfortably - so getting any points is a gift. The Saints used up all their "We finally fired our crappy coach!" mojo last week and will come down to earth. Matchup wise, all signs point to a "Good Jameis" game (CLE offense getting healthy, gutted NO secondary) and domination from Myles Garrett (injured/weak NO tackles). 

I'm passing on BAL/PIT. Always tight rivalry game that could easily hinge on some in-game injury or suspect calls (as you suggested). However, I'm not comfortable with the recent Russell Wilson hype and could see him fade a bit, not unlike Justin Fields' early-season rise and fall. Just a hunch - not bettable just yet.

PIT, IND win SU.

LAC, ATL, NYJ win in blowouts.

Feeling TB and HOU covers.

Happy hunting, gentlemen.

@Baird 

I think BUF is most likely to be the weird one that loses. The Bills are no doubt the better team with better coaching, but the Dolphins just plain score a lot of points when Tua is under center. This is also must-win time for MIA, whereas BUF is so comfortably ahead in the AFC East that there may already be a need to manufacture motivation. The true QUESTIONABLE tags for Amari Cooper and Christian Benford are also concerning if you're on BUF.

I can't back ARI with any confidence, even with all of the O-line problems and defensive injuries for CHI. The ARI defense is just so untalented. While their 4-4 record is commendable considering their SOS, it still feels like a flimsy 4-4. That defense will start hemorrhaging points at any moment. 

Tough slate. I could go either way on most of the games this weekend. The most solid bets are ATL -3 and PHI -7.5, IMO. I'm kinda liking CLE as a home dog and definitely liking DET as a road favorite. (DET is a tough-minded team built to control the LOS, so the "Goff/dome team" angle as overblown, IMO. DET could easily dominate the trenches in what is shaping up to be a slop fest, especially with GB center Josh Myers DOUBTFUL.)

@Karensman 

IND/MIN jumped out at me too - especially with the Darrisaw injury - but I've hesitated knowing the Vikings might get Blake Cashman and T.J. Hockenson back. There's serious potential for a "last team with the ball wins" game with Flacco replacing Richardson, and it feels like I'm usually on the wrong side of those games. I saw the Richardson benching coming about the time he checked himself out of the game vs. HOU, and just went with the OVER on 45.5. Could easily clear 50, IMO.

I'm going to continue to fade the Jets until it's not profitable. Every "Which Teams Will Turn Their Season Around In The Second Half?" article I've read this week has the Jets at the top of the list, which tells me that the public still can't wrap their head around the idea that the Jets are no more than exactly what they appear to be. There's still meat on that bone.

The (hostage) situation with NYJ/Rodgers is similar to CLE/Watson was in that everything is predicated on the QB holding up his end of the bargain, otherwise everything falls apart. It doesn't matter if the Jets sign all of Rodgers' BFFs and every 2019 NFC Pro Bowler - if Rodgers is drastically compromised by age/injury (which is becoming more apparent by the week) then the season is lost, especially with Rodgers apparently resisting treatment in favor of "cayenne and water' home treatment. (Wish I was kidding.)

@Karensman 

Cousins is a good play. Murray has become too unpredictable.

ATL/TB has definite shootout potential, even without Godwin/Evans. The Falcons have no pass rush and no Justin Simmons means more room over the middle/downfield. I have a hunch the Bucs paste together an effective passing game with swings to R. White (he's much better in that role than as a rusher) and a ton of stuff over the middle to Otton, McMillan and maybe even Sterling Shepard. (Shepard was Mayfield's security blanket at Oklahoma. They have history.)

GL and enjoy

@Baird 

Yeah, trends don't last forever and every game is different. I only consider trends when I've exhausted every other possible angle and all things are equal.

The Parsons/Bland news sobered me up. That, and the realization that DAL - at 3-3 - likely isn't in "must win" mode yet. That could be next week @ ATL. My initial lean just feels a week too early. Should Parsons and/or Bland return @ ATL, I'll probably be on the Cowboys.

I still think the 49ers are slightly overrated, but the Cowboys are really hurting. There was talk of Tyler Smith sticking at LT - which I liked - but it looks like DAL will continue to ride out Guyton's growing pains. Bosa could easily go nuclear on Guyton/Steele. A dominant Bosa game, a healthy dose of Jordan Mason (DAL has no answer vs. the run) and a sprinkle of Kittle should be enough for something like a 26-20 SF win.

UPDATE: Parsons and Bland are OUT for DAL, with Kendricks questionable. The forecast is now calling for 10-15 MPH winds, so weather shouldn't be too much of a problem. Seriously questioning my DAL pick now, especially after reading a deep dive into DAL's extreme vulnerability to outside zone running schemes. Also worried about Nick Bosa taking turns on DAL's turnstile OTs.

@WFDevTeam 

So Panthers over Broncos it is.

@Karensman 

Regarding Cooper Kupp - I think the Rams are trying to maximize his trade value before the Nov. 5 deadline. Get him as healthy as possible for a high-volume showcase game tonight, then sell high. Maybe squeeze a 3rd-rounder from a slot WR-needy team like PIT or something.

Yeah, Baker Mayfield's slim MVP chances may have evaporated with the Godwin injury. Godwin's slot role is the fulcrum of Liam Coen's scheme. Huge loss. If any NFC QB will challenge Lamar Jackson/Patrick Mahomes for MVP it's probably Jared Goff at this point. Longshot though. (I'm guessing Lamar gets his third. Feels like he's on a mission.)

My favorite plays this week are IND and DAL.

I caught IND +5.5 figuring that line would tighten up once/if Jonathan Taylor and DeForest Buckner are cleared to play. Even if they don't, the HOU defense is soft up the middle and severely banged up right now, and the offense is in an awful rut without Nico Collins. IND could easily win SU.

Caught DAL +4.5. That line could tighten, too. (Bland, Parsons, Kendricks, Deebo) There's value in fading SF right now, IMO. They're still being priced closer to recent 49ers vintage than what they actually are right now. Their offense is injury-plagued, their defense is susceptible and they have a real problem at kicker. With 25-30 MPH winds in the forecast, Aubrey could give DAL a huge advantage in this one - assuming he doesn't miss the game for jury duty. 

I still like the LAC's Wild Card chances, especially once their CBs and WRs get healthy. Beyond BUF/BAL/HOU/KC, the AFC is a jumble. I think PIT and DEN will cool down and have seen no indication that Jeff Ulbrich and Aaron Rodgers are capable of turning the Jets around.

The Titans just suck. Ran Carthon is making all the wrong decisions, from letting Mike Vrabel go to overpaying for Spagnuolo scheme-specific fool's gold L'Jarius Sneed.

At this point, a bet on CLE is a bet that the DEF/ST will score a TD or two. The offense flat-out doesn't score points. How long before Myles Garrett and company tap out?

It's like a restaurant where the line cooks are constantly getting slammed while the grossly overpaid chef does nothing but sit in his office getting hand j*bs from waitresses. Eventually the cooks are gonna lay down their spatulas and tongs and walk out.

CIN 38 CLE 12

"This is Cleveland's Super Bowl"

Teams don't trade their best offensive weapon right before the Super Bowl.

The Bengals/Giants game was NY's Super Bowl (Daboll went for it on seemingly every 4th down), yet CIN - in a flat spot off an OT heartbreaker to BAL - still managed to cover. At 2-4, CIN is still in must-win mode while CLE is already trading vets in preparation for a post-Watson rebuild.

@Karensman 

With you on the LAC/ARI OVER.

We know about ARI's defense, but they also happen to be the worst defense vs. explosive runs, and JK Dobbins just happens to be near the top of the league in explosive run %...with Slater and Alt now healthy. The Chargers will run at will.

On the other side, LAC are near the bottom in explosive passing plays allowed, and might be without their top 3 CBs and likely without LOLB Joey Bosa to take advantage of ARI's O-line weak link at RT. Murray is overdue an eruption. I think that 44 gets dusted.

At this point, a bet on CLE is a bet that the DEF/ST will score a TD or two. The offense flat-out doesn't score points. How long before Myles Garrett and company tap out?

It's like a restaurant where the line cooks are constantly getting slammed while the grossly overpaid chef does nothing but sit in his office getting hand j*bs from waitresses. Eventually the cooks are gonna lay down their spatulas and tongs and walk out.

CIN 38 CLE 12

At this point, a bet on CLE is a bet that the DEF/ST will score a TD or two. The offense flat-out doesn't score points. How long before Myles Garrett and company tap out?

It's like a restaurant where the line cooks are constantly getting slammed while the grossly overpaid chef does nothing but sit in his office getting hand j*bs from waitresses. Eventually the cooks are gonna lay down their spatulas and tongs and walk out.

CIN 38 CLE 12

@Karensman 

I don't think that Amari Cooper was ever really a game-changer. Like Walt said, his value lies in route-running/efficiency/reliability; a Henry Ellard/Isaac Bruce-type that remains an effective starter even at 33-34 years old. I don't think he's slipped this season - I think he was just done with waving at Watson's inaccurate passes. (He was visibly frustrated the last few games.)

Reliability is exactly what Josh Allen needs at WR. It was good of CLE to trade Cooper to a contender that will feed him properly. It was also a clear indication that they know the season is lost. Laying cabbage on a team that has packed it in and is led by a very expensive Zach Wilson just doesn't seem like a good idea. DEF/ST TDs aren't going to happen every week.

I shudder to think what the CLE offense will look like now. A million Jerry Jeudy wind sprints broken up by the occasional dropped pass I guess. Elijah Moore...I don't even bother to check if he's active or inactive during DFS research anymore because it really doesn't matter. The Browns better hope Njoku stays healthy. (He won't. The downside of being an Adonis is that you're also a pulled muscle waiting to happen.)

What you said about recognizing and getting ahead of the curve on teams that are improving/trending in the right direction is such an important aspect of betting. Foundational, really. I always try to sniff out the dog with a sustainable plan/direction vs. the directionless favorite.

"Deshaun Watson just played his best game of the season"

Watson had 47 yards at halftime and didn't lead a TD drive in the game. Again. His QBR was 34.6, somehow his 2nd highest of the season.

That 11-for-11 3rd-quarter completion streak was just fluky momentum-riding from the Myles Garrett/Rodney McCloud blocked FG/TD that made the halftime score 10-10 instead of PHI up 13-3...and possibly halftime locker room threats from Garrett, who is likely tired of the defense carrying the team.

"Watson had both of his starting tackles on the field for the first time all season"

Like it matters. Watson still took 5 sacks and 10 knockdowns. He's taken 5+ sacks in 4 of 6 starts and 31 sacks this season; 10 more than the next highest number. He took 4 sacks p/game last season with a healthy interior O-line and Wills Jr. in the lineup. He hasn't accounted for even 200 yards or more than one TD in any game this season.

Wills Jr. sucks. He has since his rookie season. He had two false start penalties (including 4th-and-goal) and a 42.4 PFF grade vs. PHI. This is typical Wills Jr. stuff when he's not injured. He was PFF's 56th-ranked OT last season. (51.3)

Conklin (57.9 PFF) is a shell of his former self, just as high-mileage Nick Chubb will assuredly be when he returns from a horrific knee injury and has to run behind the likes of Michael Dunn and Zac Zinter (41.6 PFF).

Fun stats:

The CLE offense (13.5 PPG) is last in the NFL by every imaginable metric, including a 13.8% 3rd-down conversion rate. The offense hasn't scored in it's last 29 drives.

Through six games, Watson is last in the NFL in EPA, QBR, sacks taken and pocket success rate. (Behind Will Levis, mind you.) His pocket success rate (33.3%) is ahead of only David Carr, Josh Rosen, Akili Smith, Blaine Gabbert and JaMarcus Russell this millennium.

Since 2006, of 566 passers graded through weeks 1-6, Watson is ranked:

QBR - 558th

Yards p/drop back - 565th

1st Down Rate - 566th

Three seasons into his 5-year contract, Watson has never thrown for 300 yards and has accounted for 2+ TDs twice.

The Watson signing was a catastrophic blunder and his coaches and teammates know it. (Amari Cooper has 100% checked out.) Watson is absolutely broken and I'm not sure if Anthony Munoz and Jon Ogden would make a difference at this point. Until Watson is benched, this is a bottom-5 team.

The injury report confusion mentioned in the IND/TEN write-up is becoming too common. It's getting old. I get that teams manipulate the injury report to create uncertainty for their opponents, but you'd think the league would want to minimize uncertainty for bettors/fantasy players considering how huge those markets are to the NFL's financial success. The league has to figure out a way to tighten this up.

@Walt

You're overestimating the impact Wills Jr. and Conklin might have on what's going on in CLE. Wills isn't very good and Conklin is an aging, walking surgery scar who's likely washed. Lack of continuity on the O-line is obviously going to be an issue for any team, but the performance drop off from Wills Jr./Conklin to James Hudson III/Dawand Jones hasn't been the problem it's made out to be. The problem is Deshaun Watson. Don't feel like a noob for fading CLE; the noob thing would be to assume Watson will suddenly do anything but suck.

That said, the +9 worries me. This could easily be the game where the Browns get behind a few scores early and finally yank Watson for Winston. Winston is obviously no savior, but he can fling it and provide enough spark for a backdoor.

EARLY GAME STUFF:

NO +2.5   I liked ATL -1.5, but the one-point bump in a game for which I have no solid feel has me spooked. The Saints have a battered O-line, but so do the Falcons. (Storm Norton vs. Carl Granderson could be a serious problem for ATL.) I could see one of those silly Taysom Hill-fueled Saints Ws here just as easily as a Younghoe Koo walk-off FG. Taking the points.

CIN -4.5   I'm wondering if the Bengals are broken and should be faded until we see evidence of the switch being flipped. I'm very tempted to get out ahead of that possibility here.

LAR +3   Coaching mismatch and another Kyren Williams smash spot.

GB -2.5   Jordan Love is an assassin vs. the blitz. I'm counting on negligible rust from Love, and for Sam Darnold to start showing signs of turning back into a pumpkin.

HOU -5.5   The Jags might come out with a little fire in their bellies and keep it close in the first half behind a healthy dose of Etienne, but HOU will eventually pull away with a 2nd half air show. There's also a strong possibility that JAX should simply be faded until Pederson is canned.

IND +2.5   Going contrarian here. In a bizarre turn of events, Fields finally commits a few TOs and Richardson finds moderate, efficient success behind some Jonathan Taylor chain-moving.

The PIT O-line is an underrated weakness. No Kwity Paye hurts IND, but I think Laiatu Latu steps up to menace Fields into a few mistakes.

PIT wins on a Boswell FG, but only by two. Then next week they'll destroy the Cowboys.

NYJ -8   I anticipate no letdown for the Jets here. They are well-rested and focused.

The Jets and new WR2 Mike Williams are owed some good karma. This is the season they get it. With Garrett Wilson erased by Pat Surtain, Williams steps up for a 2 TD day. Breece Hall rolls for 100+ and the defense confounds Bo Nix on the way to a workmanlike 27-13 W.

TB +1   As long as Vita Vea plays and isn't too compromised by that sprained knee, I like the home dog here.

Happy hunting, fellas.

I wanna get ahead of the curve on a couple of NFC West teams.

OVERRATED  San Francisco 49ers

Sure, the loss to the Rams was kinda fluky...but it wasn't totally fluky. I'm not as comfortable assuming Kyle Shanahan will right the ship and coast to another playoff spot as I've been in recent years.

Like Sean McVay and Bill Belichick, Shanahan's stability/system ensure the 49ers will never be an easy out. However, I'm getting the sense that this might be the season where we see injury/depth attrition become too much to overcome.

Christian McCaffrey is reportedly seeking treatment from overseas doctors for his degenerative leg issues. That can't be good. Any Shanahan team will be able to run the ball, but it was a healthy McCaffrey that became Brock Purdy's best friend and brought this offense from good to great.

Serious problems are brewing at OT. Colton McIvitz is the worst RT in the NFL (with no viable alternative on the roster), and Trent Williams is showing signs of mortality. Williams is 36 years old and the injuries are becoming more frequent. Purdy is fine with a healthy McCaffrey and airtight edge protection, but without those the house of cards collapses.

The SF defense is not as good as recent vintage. The Kyren Williams explosion was no fluke.

This isn't that foundational Bosa/D.J. Jones/Buckner/Armstead D-line with high-quality depth like Arden Key, Charles Omenihu, Javon Kinlaw, Dee Ford, etc., rotating in. With the Hargrove injury, the current D-line is just Bosa and some JAGS, with subpar depth. With Dre Greenlaw's injury shaping up to be a season-long issue, this is a mediocre unit beyond Bosa and Warner.

UNDERRATED  Seattle Seahawks

Many assume that SEA's 3-0 record is just fattening up on cupcakes - and that's fair - but I'm guessing that assumption is wrong.

First of all, recent SEA teams would have lost one of those games. Pete Carroll's schemes and rah-rah act had grown stale. The new regime is fresh and innovative. I'm probably leaning too much on the "good vibe" in Seattle, but I think it'll prove sustainable as the Grubb/Macdonald schemes fully click.

I'm predicting that in a few weeks the Grubb/Geno Smith marriage will join O'Connell/Darnold in the "reclamation QB renaissance" narrative. The SEA offense is ready for takeoff, and once Walker is healthy they'll be humming. If RT Abraham Lucas can ever get healthy, they'll really be cooking with gas.

As a Jets fan, I'll NEVER predict a Geno Smith-led team to contend for the SB, but 10 or 11 wins and a surprise run to the NFC Championship are on the table for SEA.

I wanna get ahead of the curve on a couple of NFC West teams.

OVERRATED  San Francisco 49ers

Sure, the loss to the Rams was kinda fluky...but it wasn't totally fluky. I'm not as comfortable assuming Kyle Shanahan will right the ship and coast to another playoff spot as I've been in recent years.

Like Sean McVay and Bill Belichick, Shanahan's stability/system ensure the 49ers will never be an easy out. However, I'm getting the sense that this might be the season where we see injury/depth attrition become too much to overcome.

Christian McCaffrey is reportedly seeking treatment from overseas doctors for his degenerative leg issues. That can't be good. Any Shanahan team will be able to run the ball, but it was a healthy McCaffrey that became Brock Purdy's best friend and brought this offense from good to great.

Serious problems are brewing at OT. Colton McIvitz is the worst RT in the NFL (with no viable alternative on the roster), and Trent Williams is showing signs of mortality. Williams is 36 years old and the injuries are becoming more frequent. Purdy is fine with a healthy McCaffrey and airtight edge protection, but without those the house of cards collapses.

The SF defense is not as good as recent vintage. The Kyren Williams explosion was no fluke.

This isn't that foundational Bosa/D.J. Jones/Buckner/Armstead D-line with high-quality depth like Arden Key, Charles Omenihu, Javon Kinlaw, Dee Ford, etc., rotating in. With the Hargrove injury, the current D-line is just Bosa and some JAGS, with subpar depth. With Dre Greenlaw's injury shaping up to be a season-long issue, this is a mediocre unit beyond Bosa and Warner.

UNDERRATED  Seattle Seahawks

Many assume that SEA's 3-0 record is just fattening up on cupcakes - and that's fair - but I'm guessing that assumption is wrong.

First of all, recent SEA teams would have lost one of those games. Pete Carroll's schemes and rah-rah act had grown stale. The new regime is fresh and innovative. I'm probably leaning too much on the "good vibe" in Seattle, but I think it'll prove sustainable as the Grubb/Macdonald schemes fully click.

I'm predicting that in a few weeks the Grubb/Geno Smith marriage will join O'Connell/Darnold in the "reclamation QB renaissance" narrative. The SEA offense is ready for takeoff, and once Walker is healthy they'll be humming. If RT Abraham Lucas can ever get healthy, they'll really be cooking with gas.

As a Jets fan, I'll NEVER predict a Geno Smith-led team to contend for the SB, but 10 or 11 wins and a surprise run to the NFC Championship are on the table for SEA.

@Mr. Football  

Love is blind.

The Cowboys are in trouble. The league-wide safety shell trend is making running the ball/stopping the run more important than we've seen in decades. DAL can do neither. Like, not at all.